MBB Game 4 - @ San Jose State, 11/17/22, 10 PM EST

[Jojogunne]

Our men's basketball team flies to California to begin a stretch of nine away games, starting with San Jose State at 10 pm EST this Thursday:

https://gohofstra.com/news/2022/11/15/m ... retch.aspx

It appears the game will stream free on Mountain Sports Network:

https://www.dailydot.com/upstream/chann ... t-network/

Any predictions on how we'll do these next six weeks?

[Wags]

Our men's basketball team flies to California to begin a stretch of nine away games, starting with San Jose State at 10 pm EST this Thursday:

https://gohofstra.com/news/2022/11/15/m ... retch.aspx

It appears the game will stream free on Mountain Sports Network:

https://www.dailydot.com/upstream/chann ... t-network/

Any predictions on how we'll do these next six weeks?

Technically five road games and four neutral games (three in Canada and one in Brooklyn), but yeah, definitely a very challenging stretch away from The Mack that will reveal a lot about how much this time might grow heading into CAA play shortly thereafter. The fact that they already have a perfect 3-0 start against other challenging competition is great to build on ahead of these trips.

[shbcpa85]

Lets look at the next nine games in three segments:
Calif games--- 1-1 -- St Mary's tough game and maybe the second toughest in this stretch--we loose-they were undefeated last year at home
Canadian trip- 2-1 -- If we played these games spread out and not 3 games in 3 days we could win all 3. -- we will loose one of these games
Last four ---- 2-2--- Probably best team we face, Purdue is a loss- Big 10-Big team- at Mackey Arena tough place for anyone to win. Of the finally three games-- all good teams.- we loose 1.

Nine tough games and if we win 5 it should be considered a good job and a great non-league experience --playing 3 games in 3 nights, playing St Mary's and Purdue and all the travel. However, if we win 6 and no major injuries-sky's the limit

8-4 nonleague-- I'll take it

[Wags]

Canadian trip- 2-1 -- If we played these games spread out and not 3 games in 3 days we could win all 3. -- we will loose one of these games

Why can't they win all three? They're probably better and deeper than all three opponents and there's no edge for anyone rest-wise.
They're currently favored to win all three.
Their second opponent, UNC-Greensboro, will be playing a second game in two days, just like Hofstra will.
Their third opponent, Quinnipiac, will be playing a third game in three days, just like Hofstra will.

These are their current percentage chances to win according to ESPN:
San Jose State - 46.2% (this the only one that surprises me; I thought they'd be favored and I do think they'll win)
St. Mary's - 16.6% (no shock here; would be a HUGE upset, and it's possible, but not likely... will be better off if they can speed up St. Mary's)
Middle Tennessee - 55.4% (I see this as about the same and expect a close win; the toughest of the three Canada games)
UNC Greensboro - 65.7% (should win comfortably but not a blowout)
Quinnipiac - 72.7% (this seems high, but I do think they'll win comfortably)
George Mason - 29.6% (this seems very low; I give them more of a chance in the low-to-mid-40s; winnable, but I think this is a fairly close loss)
Purdue - 16.9% (like St. Mary's, no surprise; 7-4 Zach Edey will be a major problem)
UMass - 54.2% (agree with this; slight favorite, I think they'll be hyped to play at Barclays, will play well and win)
South Florida - 37.0% (not a surprise they aren't favored, but thought they'd be closer to 45% or so... but I think they stay close and win it late)

So I guess I see 6-3 for these nine.

[cactus]

The Canadian trip will hopefully get the bench more minutes again like the Princeton game.
Kind of crazy Marshall won rookie of the week for the CAA then got like 15 minutes total the next 2 games.
They can win all 3, but it's a test and the back to backs make it more likely they'll have an off day.
I have them 4-5, losing a game in Canada, beating Mason, and losing to UMass and S Florida
Just feel the offense stalls too much in the second half when they lock down Estrada.
They've hit big 3s in every game but not sure it's a strategy for repeated success
if they go 7-2 the at large still slightly in play

[HUSID80]

I see this as an extemely tough test not just due to the competition but also the fact that we're essentially on the road for a month...worse than any NBA Schedule...if we come out 5-4 or better I will be thrilled...to be say 8-4 after this stretch will set us up nicely for CAA play...where, at least on paper we match up favorably against just about anyone except Towson on the road according to Sagarin.

[Wags]

I see this as an extemely tough test not just due to the competition but also the fact that we're essentially on the road for a month...worse than any NBA Schedule

Funny you should say this since Coach Curtin joked to me after the game on Monday that "this is the NBA portion of the schedule." But he said starting that stretch 3-0 makes it a lot easier. Sometimes, going on the road for a while can help. Different situation, because they were losing beforehand (unlike Hofstra winning beforehand), but look at the Knicks last night. They suddenly became a lot more focused and played much better in getting an unexpected win in Utah. There is sometimes that "us against the world" mentality that helps teams and none of the distractions that there might be at home. Teams can develop good team chemistry on road trips, on and off the court, which I think this team already has, and which can grow further on the trips like HU is about to take. Ultimately, it's about winning, so get as many Ws in some of these more winnable games and play tougher teams like Saint Mary's or Purdue close if they don't win those (to at least take positives away from games like those). If they can do that, I think these trips will be very good for their growth as a team prior to CAA play even though the travel can be tiring.

at least on paper we match up favorably against just about anyone except Towson on the road according to Sagarin.

Was surprised to see home court mean so much according to ESPN with Hofstra and Towson, but at least as of now, Towson has a 63.4% chance to beat Hofstra at Towson on 1/16, yet it's basically flipped, with Hofstra given a 66.4% chance to beat Towson in Hempstead on 2/2.

[EvanJ]

It appears the game will stream free on Mountain Sports Network:

https://www.dailydot.com/upstream/chann ... t-network/

https://watchstadium.com/live/hofstra-a ... ose-state/ is the direct link.

if they go 7-2 the at large still slightly in play

10-2 nonconference vs. Division I, 15-3 in the CAA, and 2-1 in the CAA Tournament with a loss in the Final makes 27-6. I am guessing that we would not get an at-large bid with that record. The snubbed 2005-2006 team was 24-6 on Selection Sunday with an SOS that I think will be better than what we have this season. Any of of St. Mary's, Purdue, and South Florida would be looked at as a better win than any win the 2005-2006 team had. The tournament had 64 or 65 teams in 2006 compared to 68 now, but the top six conferences have three more teams now, the American Athletic Conference that did not exist in 2006 could get at-large bids, and top conferences get favored more by the Selection Committee.

Was surprised to see home court mean so much according to ESPN with Hofstra and Towson, but at least as of now, Towson has a 63.4% chance to beat Hofstra at Towson on 1/16, yet it's basically flipped, with Hofstra given a 66.4% chance to beat Towson in Hempstead on 2/2.

Since our probability is higher, it means ESPN thinks we are slightly better. Towson returned 67 percent of last season's points.

[Hofstra]

Happy to be able to watch it. Would love to go to sleep with a dub. Would hate staying up super late to watch a loss. Stating the obvious, I know

[EvanJ]

https://gohofstra.com/news/2022/11/15/m ... retch.aspx is Hofstra's preview titled "Hofstra Heads West To Begin Important Stretch." It will be on NBC Sports Bay Area.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/sidearm.sites/ ... 3game4.pdf is Hofstra's Game Notes. It is strange looking at our 39 players who scored at least 1,000 and not having any active players. The last season in which we did not have a 1,000 point scorer for us was 2013-2014, when we were led by Zeke Upshaw and Dion Nesmith, while Juan'ya Green, Ameen Tanksley, and Brian Bernardi had transfer redshirt seasons.

Because I am in the Central Time Zone, the game does not start as late for me. I hope that someday Hofstra comes near Omaha.

I paid for KenPom. https://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Hofstra expects us to go 4-5 nonconference vs. Division I in remaining games. It has San Jose State (W), St. Mary's (L), Middle Tennessee (L), UNC Greensboro (L), Quinnipiac (W), George Mason (L), Purdue (L), Massachusetts (W), South Florida (W), and Old Westbury (W). It has us more likely to win than to lose every CAA game except for two against Towson, but adding the probabilities for each game makes a 13-5 CAA record, and a 21-10 (20-10 vs. Division I) record going into the CAA Tournament. It has us 132nd of 363, and 3.28 points better than average, with an SOS 0.54 points harder than average. The nearest conference to us is Conference USA, which is 11th of 32. 73 of 76 teams in the top six conferences are above us. A majority of teams are below average, and the median is Delaware, who is 1.42 points worse than average. The CAA is 23rd of 32 conferences and 6.29 points below average.

[The Shadow]

SJSU a 2.5 to 4 point favorite over HU.

[Wags]

SJSU a 2.5 to 4 point favorite over HU.

Seeing Hofstra +4 with a 143 O/U, so an expected 74-70 loss for the Pride.

But that's okay, they were +2.5 at Princeton and +3 vs. Iona.

[Cards]

The CAA is 23rd of 32 conferences and 6.29 points below average.

As many on this board had projected, expansion of the CAA has not done basketball any favors. 23rd of 32 - Yikes!!

[Wags]

The CAA is 23rd of 32 conferences and 6.29 points below average.

As many on this board had projected, expansion of the CAA has not done basketball any favors. 23rd of 32 - Yikes!!

I don't think so either, because the league (at least for now) merely added quantity over quality, but it's way too early. Conference rankings don't mean anything in mid-November. Let's see if this 23rd ranking improves in 2-3 months.

[triplec2195]

The CAA is 23rd of 32 conferences and 6.29 points below average.

As many on this board had projected, expansion of the CAA has not done basketball any favors. 23rd of 32 - Yikes!!

I don't think so either, because the league (at least for now) merely added quantity over quality, but it's way too early. Conference rankings don't mean anything in mid-November. Let's see if this 23rd ranking improves in 2-3 months.

This is so true it's much too early to pay attention to these as you go rankings. Last year in April 2022 the CAA finished 12 out of 32 conferences. We haven't dropped 11 spots in one year. Too much attention being paid to rankings and predictions and point spreads as well.

[Wags]

Too much attention being paid to rankings and predictions and point spreads as well.

Except when you see a change on game day like this with the point spread - I am now seeing Hofstra as a 2.5-point favorite after San Jose State was -4.
Was a key player for the Spartans ruled out for injury or something?

[EvanJ]

KenPom predicts us to win 72-71.

If you looked at preseason predictions for every Division I team and gave each conference the mean rank of their teams, the CAA might have been in the 20s. I think one site had only Towson in the top 40 percent. I am not saying the CAA will finish 23rd or worse, but it's possible.

http://defiantlydutch.blogspot.com/2022 ... state.html is Jerry Beach's "I'll Be Quirky: San Jose State." Our 85-80 win over George Washington was a unicorn score, meaning the first time we won by that score. Before than game we won 82-80, 83-80, 84-80, 86-80, 87-80, and 88-80. Our last streak of at least 4 wins all by 6 or fewer points was from January 13 through 21, 2001, so we could do that for the first time since joining the CAA.

[Jojogunne]

Hope Williams plays tonight.

[EvanJ]

Williams is not starting. San Jose State is starting two guards, two forwards, and one center, and one guard averages 6.7 rebounds.

https://watchstadium.com/live/hofstra-a ... ose-state/ has video.

http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=428087 has statistics.

Towson came back from down 35-20 with 19:20 left to win 56-53 at UNC Greensboro, who we play in Quebec on November 26. Nicolas Timberlake scored 2 in the first half and 24 in the second half. Towson was favored by 1.

[Wags]

Our 85-80 win over George Washington was a unicorn score, meaning the first time we won by that score.

Kudos to Jerry for tracking this, but as @NFL_Scorigami tracks first-time scores in the NFL, I'd like to offer that first-time scores pertaining to Hofstra hoops be known as Hofstragamis.

Our last streak of at least 4 wins all by 6 or fewer points was from January 13 through 21, 2001, so we could do that for the first time since joining the CAA.

And kudos to you for this interesting nugget - thank you.