MBB Game 32 vs. W&M, March 8 (Sun) 8:30 PM

[Jojogunne]

Starting a thread for our first CAA tournament game.

Elon beat W&M twice, both times by just 3 points.

We played each team once and lost to both of them during our five-game January swoon:

1/15 @ Stony Brook L 71-76
1/17 Elon L 85-89
1/22 @ NC A&T L 78-79
1/24 @ William & Mary L 82-89
1/29 Charleston L 64-66

As Speedy has said several times, we were not fully healthy then, so maybe the outcome will be different this time.

FloCollege and WRHU (88.7 FM) will carry the game.

[Wags]

Starting a thread for our first CAA tournament game.

Elon beat W&M twice, both times by just 3 points.

We played each team once and lost to both of them during our five-game January swoon:

1/15 @ Stony Brook L 71-76
1/17 Elon L 85-89
1/22 @ NC A&T L 78-79
1/24 @ William & Mary L 82-89
1/29 Charleston L 64-66

As Speedy has said several times, we were not fully healthy then, so maybe the outcome will be different this time.

FloCollege and WRHU (88.7 FM) will carry the game.

Strange setup for that part of the bracket:

The 11 seed is 2-0 vs. the 6 seed, and the 3 seed is 0-2 vs. the 6 and 11 seeds.

The 3 seed is also league's best defensive team (in terms of pts allowed and opponents' FG%) but the 6 and 11 seeds are the two teams who have scored the most on the 3 seed this year.

[dutchPride86]

So William & Mary it is. This is going to be a very tough game, W&M may be the absolute worst matchup in the league for us in terms of style of play. 3 keys to victory for me:

1. Control the pace. W&M plays at the 5th fastest pace in the country, we're outside of the top 300 (per KenPom). If Hofstra lets W&Ms press speed them up its gonna lead to turnovers and trouble

2. Guard the 3pt line and respect their shooters. Speedy kept waiting for Brockoff to miss last game and the kid never did. Their other big dropped 5 threes and torched Elon tonight. If you don't extend and guard their bigs out to the 3pt line they will burn you

3. Watch the fouls. If the game is officiated like W&M game was tonight whole team might foul out

[Wags]

2. Guard the 3pt line and respect their shooters. Speedy kept waiting for Brockoff to miss last game and the kid never did. Their other big dropped 5 threes and torched Elon tonight. If you don't extend and guard their bigs out to the 3pt line they will burn you

Inexcusable to play D like that but it happens all the time at every level, especially in the NBA. Frustrating to watch. When a guy makes a couple, you have to guard him, you can't just play the ol' "Well, he won't make it again" defense, as he continues to make it. Yet we see it all the time. I don't think we'll see that now in a tournament setting with everything on the line. What Brockhoff did against us was a huge anomaly. He had eight 3s (in 15 tries) in that game. He hasn't even attempted eight 3s in any other game this season.

[triplec2195]

So it comes down to O VERSUS D to a large extent to simplify it. People believe in us ESPN has us a 4.5 point favorite and a 63% chance to win this game. Lets Go Pride and let this be our year!!

[HUSID74]

We were a different team when we played them last, we had a couple of injuries as I recall and W&M plays MUCH better at home...This will be a tough game but I think we'll prevail.
We need to get to the finals to make our season.

[EvanJ]

We allow opponents to shoot twos .441, which is fourth of 365 teams. That is from TeamRankings, which excludes non-Division I opponents. W&M shoots twos .592, and all of their regulars shoot twos at least .525. W&M shoots twos .582 against Division I teams, which is 23rd. All of their regulars attempted at least 9 threes, and eight of their ten regulars have over a quarter of their attempts be threes. Guys who shoot many threes could have their twos longer (and therefore harder) than guys like Sunday and Onuetu who shoot by the basket, so to have guys shoots threes and shoot twos that well is impressive. They are average at shooting threes. Sports-Reference did not update through yesterday, and they entered yesterday seventh of 365 teams in fouls drawn per game with 20.6.

If we have to play a team with a fast tempo, I would rather play them today when we are rested than later.

[Polito]

Don't love this matchup. W&M loves to spoil HU seasons, and we've allowed them to do so. Can already tell this game will be insanely more stressful than it should be.

[triplec2195]

It comes down to our D if we hold them in the high 60's low 70's we will prevail but if they go off in the 80's their average we could be in trouble. In the first game we played without German which is a loss on both sides of the ball. A tough game that we should pull out.

[triplec2195]

We're now a 3.5 point favorite. This game has the makings of a nail biter.

[EvanJ]

https://defiantlydutch.blogspot.com/202 ... rexel.html is Jerry Beach's "Keep It Perky: Drexel." The 62-51 win was a unicorn score, meaning the first time we won by that score, and it was our third unicorn score in four games. It was the second consecutive game that we took the lead for good at 37-35.

https://defiantlydutch.blogspot.com/202 ... y-caa.html is Jerry Beach's "I'll Be Quirky: William & Mary (CAA Tournament quarterfinals)."

https://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=652815 will have statistics.

[Wags]

Don't love this matchup. W&M loves to spoil HU seasons, and we've allowed them to do so. Can already tell this game will be insanely more stressful than it should be.

Not always. Last quarterfinal meeting: 94-46, Hofstra.

[Wags]

It comes down to our D if we hold them in the high 60's low 70's we will prevail but if they go off in the 80's their average we could be in trouble. In the first game we played without German which is a loss on both sides of the ball. A tough game that we should pull out.

Under 70, please. Hard to do against W&M but 18-1 holding teams under 70 this year. That's the magic number.

[Polito]

"Not always. Last quarterfinal meeting: 94-46, Hofstra."

I'll take it Wags! Make it so!

[Wags]

"Not always. Last quarterfinal meeting: 94-46, Hofstra."

I'll take it Wags! Make it so!

Ha, I wish! That ain't happening tonight. BUT a much smaller win and a much better semifinal result than what followed that 94-46 win IS very possible!

Or we may be headed for a Campbell-Towson championship game. LOL

[Polito]

I mean it could... HU is fully capable of doing that. They're also fully capable of not lol. Man do we need a strong showing tonight.

[EvanJ]

Jerry Beach did not mention the list of teams that have not lost by double-digits. With UNCW's loss today, we are one of eight teams that has not lost by double-digits. Entering today, the CAA was the only conference with two teams that had not lost by double-digits. The other seven teams that have not lost by double-digits are Arizona, Connecticut, Duke, Florida, Miami (Ohio), Michigan, and Stephen F. Austin.

[Hofstra]

So excited for this game. 1 and 2 seeds gone, we havent even tipped off. This is our tournament.

[EvanJ]

We are starting Edmead, Davis, Plotnikov, DeCady, and Sunday. W&M is starting Chase Lowe (guard), Kyle Pulliam (guard), Cade Haskins (forward), Tunde Vahlberg Fasasi (forward), and Kilian Brockhoff (forward). The statistics do not have the players' points, rebounds, and assists statistics before the game like they sometimes do. Instead, they have the years. Lowe, Pulliam, and Haskins are seniors, and Vahlberg Fasasi and Brockhoff are juniors. Their leading scorer is Reese Miller, who has not started a game.

https://www.flohoops.com/live/239153 has video.

[RainDelay]

Victory already in foul trouble… woah boy here we go