MBB Game 29 @Northeastern, Feb 21 (Sat) 2 PM

[dutchPride86]

The faster this final 8:51 ticks off the clock the better. Victory injured and starting to get chippy. Let's get out of dodge here...

[dutchPride86]

Well done, guys did what they had to do today. Game was never in doubt in the 2nd half. Congrats to Speedy for his 100th win!

Let's hope Victory injury isn't serious. He's been struggling but obviously can't afford to lose him entirely.

I was impressed with Fritz's younger brother. Feisty player for Northeastern

[EvanJ]

Our lead got down from 22 to 10 before we won 82-68. Davis scored 22, Edmead scored 19, Plotnikov scored 18, DeCady scored 9, Onuetu and Roberts scored 4, Sunday and Patterson scored 3, and Reaves and Tsynkevich did not shoot. Davis, Edmead, and plotnikov combined for 59 points, including 34 of our 43 in the second half.

Northeastern had 6 turnovers, 3 more rebounds, and 8 more assists. Before today, teams that had 6 or fewer turnovers, at least 3 more rebounds, and at least 8 more assists had won their last 564 games. The previous team to do that in a loss was Indiana in a 77-76 loss hosting Maryland on January 26, 2020. Northeastern is the first team from 2010-2011 to now to do those three things in a loss by at least 12.

[Polito]

Well well, another decided victory, just like I'm looking for - guess Speedy does understand a little about some margin of victory after all

Next week is HUGE - this is the regular season GOY for HU - absolute MUST win for Speedy. This program needs to make a statement here, not just in conference, but on LI - you wanna promote all this Pride of LI nonsense, then you better bring your A game and stomp this SBU team into the hardwood.

No mercy. No single digit crap. Beat their rears by double digits and let's finally be the program we're supposed to be.

[Wags]

Well well, another decided victory, just like I'm looking for - guess Speedy does understand a little about some margin of victory after all

Why would we think he hadn't?

November: Beat Merrimack by 20 and Penn by 17 on consecutive days in Philly.

December: Beat Campbell by 14.

January: Won at Towson by 11 (led by 15 with 5 min left), and won at Monmouth by 16.

February: Swept Northeastern by 17 and 14, beat Towson by 22 (led by 31), beat Hampton by 36.

That's NINE games. The question was never when would they "finally" win big? The question was: What have people been watching to make it very unfairly seem like they skated by in every win this year?

[Wags]

https://x.com/JerryBeach73/status/2025317804749013274

[HUSID74]

Well done, guys did what they had to do today. Game was never in doubt in the 2nd half. Congrats to Speedy for his 100th win!

Let's hope Victory injury isn't serious. He's been struggling but obviously can't afford to lose him entirely.

I was impressed with Fritz's younger brother. Feisty player for Northeastern

Looked like Victory was walking around fine in the loker oom celebration.

[HUSID74]

Well said Wags! I don't what people want. We're beginning to sound like spoiled Yankee fans...

[Wags]

Well said Wags! I don't what people want. We're beginning to sound like spoiled Yankee fans...

Which is especially crazy for fans of a program that has yet to win an NCAA tournament game vs. fans of a 27-time champion.

[Captain]

Hope it was just a mild ankle twist for Onuetu.
Love to have a fully healthy roster for the tournament.
Happy to see Wills back on court vs Hampton.
I am comfortable with this team in a 3 day event.
Obviously it’s only 3 days when we tcb.
If our bigs hold up, if one or two of Decady Plotnikov and Patterson perform, and we can spell Edmead and Davis with Wills Reeves and Roberts we should be good to go.
Kenpom still rates us as the top of the CAA. I think I like that poll!
Let’s finish strong vs StonyBrook and Drexel.

[Jojogunne]

Our wins over Syracuse and Pitt probably count a lot in KenPom's formula.

[Wags]

Our wins over Syracuse and Pitt probably count a lot in KenPom's formula.

Based on Kenpom's ranking, it's their two best wins: Syracuse (78) and Pittsburgh (108), even thought Pitt sucks (10-17).

Their next best win is Charleston (164), who they, of course, also lost to.

It's nice to see them as the only CAA team in the top 100, but whatever formula Kenpom is using, it seems somewhat unreliable. Not sure how Kenpom has Hofstra at 94 when they only have one win higher than 94, only 16 spots higher, another win vs. 108, and all other wins at 164 and lower. I guess they get some credit for losing close on the road to South Florida (55), but a good metric should be: who did you actually beat, where did you beat them, and what was the margin? And, in cases like the USF loss, credit for close losses to good teams, especially away.

But outside of Syracuse and Pitt, there's not much there. That's not to say they're not deserving of the CAA's highest ranking (their conference rivals don't seem to have much either), but they're 94 when they only have a win over 78 and mostly over much worse than 94?

NET also has them at 94. I don't really trust these metrics. They've been tinkering with them and searching for a good one ever since RPI, and I don't think they've ever really come up with a decent one. Whatever they've used has seemed very flawed. No matter for Hofstra though. Forget Kenpom, NET, whatever. Just win the next five games. That's all that matters.

[Polito]

wags and HUSID you are missing my point. Not spoiled at all. To me this is about what HU SHOULD be doing at this point. This is just my opinion, you can certainly disagree, but I'm trying to promote the concept of leveling up. It's well past time for HU to raise the bar IMO.

I firmly believe HU is SUPPOSED to be winning. That's the kind of program we are SUPPOSED to have, and that's mindset I want to see.

Margin of victory isn't too important most times, BUT it does matter in some cases at some points. I wouldn't bother if I didn't think HU could or should. I didn't make this case at all throughout the year, until now - because now it does mean something. Not for math, for momentum.

Don't forget how watered down this conf is today. This is the easiest the CAA has ever been to win - EVER. There's no VCU, ODU, GMU, JMU, or UD. What TP/JM had to navigate in the old CAA, plus still having the W and CoC since '13, was a nightmare compared to today's neutered version. Now, the argument can be made about increased parity top to bottom, the old conf didn't have to navigate the NIL and xfer portal like today. But still...

HU was in the next group below them. So why can't they be expected to dominate some games now vs programs in that next tier below HU??

I don't see this as unrealistic at all. And I FULLY expect to see HU go out and bring the heat against SBU all game and win comfortably. It's time for HU to be that program.

[Wags]

wags and HUSID you are missing my point. Not spoiled at all. To me this is about what HU SHOULD be doing at this point. This is just my opinion, you can certainly disagree, but I'm trying to promote the concept of leveling up. It's well past time for HU to raise the bar IMO.

I'm not disagreeing on the point, I'm disagreeing on whether they've actually done it often this year. They have:

The five-game winning streak should have been at least 3-2 instead of 0-5. Granted, they were hurt then, whatever. That was a rough patch they shouldn't have had. THAT was where, as you're saying, the bar should have been raised (avoiding a few close losses that should've been turned into wins).

That aside, the wins: let's exclude the non D-1 wins for obvious reasons. For the those other 17 wins...

The average margin of victory is 12 ppg.
UNCW's is 10.5 ppg in their 22 D-I wins this year.

8 of Hofstra's 17 D-I wins are by 8 or less.
11 of UNCW's 22 D-I wins are by 9 or less.

9 of Hofstra's 17 wins are by double digits (eight of them by 14 or more, three of them by 20 or more).
11 of UNCW's 22 D-I wins are by double digits (eight of them by 10-13 pts and only three blowout wins, by 25-30).

It's not realistic to win almost every game by double digits. The real issue was that there weren't more wins (like UNCW had) because of that five-game losing streak, But the wins Hofstra has had, they've won a lot more of those by a good margin than they're being given credit for here. In fact, the margin of their wins and the frequency of their bigger wins has been right on par with UNCW's wins this year.

[daHUPride]

Hope it was just a mild ankle twist for Onuetu.
Love to have a fully healthy roster for the tournament.
Happy to see Wills back on court vs Hampton.
I am comfortable with this team in a 3 day event.
Obviously it’s only 3 days when we tcb.
If our bigs hold up, if one or two of Decady Plotnikov and Patterson perform, and we can spell Edmead and Davis with Wills Reeves and Roberts we should be good to go.
Kenpom still rates us as the top of the CAA. I think I like that poll!
Let’s finish strong vs StonyBrook and Drexel.

I certainly see us at the top of the CAA - but until we do it in the tourny - from start to finish it is all speculation if we are going to crowned champs.
We know what we can get from Edmead and Davis - we also need Victory and Silas (Bloody) Sunday to stay out of foul trouble - AND as I have said all year (and concur with Captain) - we need one or two of Decady Plotnikov and Patterson perform - it is a lot to ask - especially if we are ask for that kid of performance over three consecutive days/games.

Also - the CAA - is far more competitive then I'd thought it'd be.

[stuball888]

Yes, I agree
There is more parity in this league now
The bottom teams are still competitive with the top team teams
You cannot take anyone for granted
You must bring your A game each and every game

[EvanJ]

This is the easiest the CAA has ever been to win - EVER.

The CAA is 14th in the Conference NET. The CAA was 17th in 2024-2025, 18th in 2023-2024, and 26th in 2022-2023. The ranking that is available for every season we have been in the CAA is KenPom. This is our 25th season in the CAA. The CAA ranks 15th, which is in a five-way tie for its 9th through 13th best seasons in that span. Furthermore, the CAA's 13 teams are more teams than it had for most of that time.

[Polito]

Gotcha wags, and I'm with you on that too - they have done so this season - so my point stands, HU can and SHOULD absolutely be dominant at this point / end of the season vs teams they should clearly be better than. And I get it can change year to year. But this year there's no reason for us to think we can only beat lower level teams by 1 point lol - let's show some power if we are in fact one of the top 2-3. This time of year gotta act like it. And Speedy seems to be of that thinking as well. Margin of victory matters sometimes, not really sure why this is controversial to some (not you).

Appreciate the stats EvanJ. And yes, to be fair, the CAA has largely been pretty well ranked overall for a mid major in the grand scheme over the many years. However, there is a LOT of context missing from that cold data. That ranking in no way means the CAA is better today than with the VA 3 - any thought of that is completely ludicrous. It isn't better - it's way worse today and way more watered down than it's ever been. And that's just common sense. That ranking is highly dependent on the quality of all the OTHER leagues, vs just the quality of the CAA. So it's "a" data point for sure, but it's definitely not to be taken singularly as the answer on its own.

This is a VERY winnable conference for a program like HU. There is just no excuse today. The old CAA was a gauntlet - and it should've gotten more credit than it did. A mid major producing 2 FF teams in 5 years is INSANE, esp pre-NIL and free for all xfer portal. Previous strong teams have been replaced by weak ones. This conf is a joke compared to what it was. I confidently repeat, the CAA is easier to win today than it's ever been.

[Wags]

This is a VERY winnable conference for a program like HU. There is just no excuse today. The old CAA was a gauntlet - and it should've gotten more credit than it did. A mid major producing 2 FF teams in 5 years is INSANE, esp pre-NIL and free for all xfer portal. Previous strong teams have been replaced by weak ones. This conf is a joke compared to what it was. I confidently repeat, the CAA is easier to win today than it's ever been.

"Joke" is probably strong. It's still pretty good at the top. And it's definitely not easier than it's ever been (remember, James Madison beat Northeastern in a seven-team tournament in 2013, just after VCU left and GMU and ODU were on their way out). Now, that year was a joke. That was the low point during Hofstra's time in the league, along with the asterisked Covid year when Drexel (a 6 seed) beat Elon (an 8 seed) in the final.

The two years between JMU's 2013 win and the OT battle we lost to UNCW in 2016, in 2014 and 2015, were pretty watered-down too (even though those tournaments were fun), as was 2019, (hate to say it, but 2020 too), and 2021. Could argue 2022 wasn't that hard either, though easier than those other aforementioned years.

Right now probably isn't the easiest it's been to win, but somewhere in the middle. Like you said, not even close to trying to beat VCU, ODU, and GMU in Richmond (that was the height) but also maybe tougher than six or seven particular years between 2013 and 2022.

2023 was a solid year again, but you may have a point even about the past two years. Quality teams won those titles again, but a 7 seed and a 12 seed nearly won them instead, which supports the idea that maybe it might not have been that tough.

In any case, to your main overall point, it's definitely been something in recent years, post-Richmond, that had often been winnable for Hofstra. 2016 and 2019 would've changed the view a lot. Had Hofstra won those, when they were really close (especially 2016), we'd be talking about three (instead of one) in the past decade-plus, and the narrative about Hofstra coming up short would've been tempered a bit. But woulda, coulda, shoulda, right?

[Polito]

LOL, right, so basically there have been lots of poor years in this conference - no argument from me! But to think this league is difficult to win today just because HU has a hard time doing it or because the league is more even is nonsense. That's all on HU. Parity doesn't = quality. It was WAY harder, and that's a fact.

My point stands and is easy to prove: When was the last time a CAA team won an NCAAT game?

The answer is 2013 for JMU in the First Four, which really doesn't even count if we're being honest about that silly money-grab format. The last time a current CAA team won a regular NCAAT game (while being in the CAA) in the round of 64 was 2002 with UNCW. *2002*

The others in between that are from the programs that left. Hampton and NC A&T did so but not in the CAA.

Yeah, exactly. This current conference is a joke IMO and is fully winnable by HU every year. The fact that HU did it all of 1 time is just shockingly bad.

It would be a much different convo if they had. This year TBD though... perhaps...