CAA MBB Outlook 2025-26

[Wags]

Well I did get the year wrong but I did remember that Dubar was at least for some period of time playing (not playing) for the #1 team in the country. Thanks Wags for straightening out my partially wrong misinformation. lol

Team effort. Thanks for getting us on the right track. I knew Walker and Estrada were close, but didn't recall that Dubar actually did play on a #1 team until you said it, so good call. I guess the thought that they were #1 at one point was completely overshadowed in my mind by the way Houston shut them down so much in the first half of their Elite 8 game.

[EvanJ]

Dell'Orso is Number 1 in the AP Poll, while Michigan is Number 1 in the Coaches Poll. It is the second time this season and third time in 2025 that the polls disagreed about Number 1, and the three times had all different teams.

As posted in another topic, Stony Brook blew a 16 point lead with under 4 minutes left hosting Columbia. Stony Brook won 77-73 in overtime, and Columbia never led.

North Carolina A&T played Howard, and the game was at Duke. Howard led by 13 at halftime. NC A&T got within 2, and lost 73-69.

[Wags]

Dell'Orso is Number 1 in the AP Poll, while Michigan is Number 1 in the Coaches Poll. It is the second time this season and third time in 2025 that the polls disagreed about Number 1, and the three times had all different teams.

No disrespect to Arizona, which is playing very well, but Michigan is the best team in the country right now. They are steamrolling teams. They led Villanova by 30 at halftime, and this is how good they are: they still won that game by 28 despite missing 24 3s and 11 FTs.

[triplec2195]

Meanwhile in the world of the CAA Stony Brook playing at home beat Columbia in O/T 77-73. Their guard E Pratt had 24 points. They're 7-3 but haven't really beat anyone other then Columbia. Considering they were picked lower then us in the pre-season poll they could be a surprise.

[HUSID74]

Watched the game on SNY. It was a very different Columbia team tonight than the one that played against us.
It must have been that horrible bus ride from Manhattan to Suffolk County.
Columbia shot poorly, 36% overall and 26% from three, yet they still managed to come from behind, something like 15 points back to tie it and send it to overtime.
In OT they missed at least 7 three pointers by my count.

[EvanJ]

https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/si ... 691119.pdf says Columbia shot threes 2-8 in overtime, which is 6 misses. If you have video that shows that the play-by-play is wrong, I will believe you.

Charleston is an underdog by 13.5 at South Florida. They are the only CAA team playing a Division I team today.

[EvanJ]

North Carolina A&T won 82-79 hosting Maryland-Eastern Shore (UMES), and NC A&T was favored by 7.5. UMES went up 14 early in the second half, but NC A&T came back, and it stayed close. With 2 seconds left, NC A&T got fouled, missed the first, and made the second to tie the game. I got up assuming it would go overtime. However, UMES quickly turned the ball over, and NC A&T's Lewis Walker made a three at the buzzer to win. Walker was shooting 1-8 before that shot, but he still led all players with 22 points because he made 17 of 18 free throws. His 17 makes are tied for the tenth most in CAA history.

Edit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6SH6ck5L-U is titled "CAA Fast Break: Men's Basketball Non-Conference Update." The description starts with "Welcome to the first episode of a brand-new series called "CAA Fast Break!" Griffin Della Penna, who I did not see in previous seasons, talks to John Giannini.

[stuball888]

I just looked up the NCAA RPI only
this is based on record SOS and whether its home or away games
Hofstra has benefitted the most due to our OOC away schedule
Hofstra #48
W&M #54
Towson #65
UNCW #83
SBU #95

Campbell #146
Elon #183

Charleston #230
Monmouth #252
Northeastern #259

NCA&T #311
Drexel #326
Hampton #331
SOS and away games given top priority

[stuball888]

Is this the year the CAA gets a second bid?

[triplec2195]

Don't hold your breath on that one Stu!

[stuball888]

As of now we have one team in quadrant one
We have four teams in quadrant two
A total of five teams in the top 100
How many conferences have better rankings then we have right now

[joeg1]

If those rpis hold up the caa should be a 2 bid league. Would take some big time chicanery to deny it a second invite. The league hasn't been this good in some time, it seems

[dutchPride86]

Love the enthusiasm but cmon guys lets be serious here. The RPI we grew up with isnt even a real metric anymore, and CAA wouldn't have a prayer of being a 2 bid league even if it was. The NET, kenpom, bart torvik, and evanmiya are the ranking sites these days. CAA, while MUCH improved, is not a top 10 conference in any of them.

Kenpom is probably the most accurate. CAA doesnt have a single top 100 team there. Our 109 ranking is real solid, as is UNCW at 104, but thats not even in the conversation of being close to a conversation about being anywhere near contention for an at large bid. Lol

Now Ill give you 3 CAA teams in the top 100 of the NET, the NCAAs top metric, is highly unusual. But even there W&M somehow in the 70s right now is not close to at large range. And W&M will go tumbling in the NET as soon as they lose to anyone in the middle of the conference

Syracuse is now actually 1 spot behind us in the NET, and was only a quad 2 win. Pitt so far down thats only quad 3

[Pbdutch]

Seriously guys, we beat two ACC teams (thrilled about that) plus we look good and I guess some other CAA teams are decent, but there is NO WAY IN HELL the CAA becomes a two bid league. Let’s just focus on Hofstra doing what they can to win the conference tourney and get to the dance

[Wags]

Is this the year the CAA gets a second bid?

The only way this happens is if UNCW (currently 10-1) wins its last two OOC games, goes 15-3 or 16-2 in CAA play, and loses close in the CAA finals. And even then, they probably wouldn't have the resume.

[dutchPride86]

Is this the year the CAA gets a second bid?

The only way this happens is if UNCW (currently 10-1) wins its last two OOC games, goes 15-3 or 16-2 in CAA play, and loses close in the CAA finals. And even then, they probably wouldn't have the resume.

Yeah UNCW hasnt even played a single quad 1 or 2 opponent yet, while theyve already cleaned up with 7 quad 4 wins. Complete opposite strategy of how Speedy schedules in non conference.

[joeg1]

I was right about the soccer at large, right? Ill stand by us being a 2 bid league. If we are the 10th best conference, there aren't that many teams outside the p5 playing a better schedule. If the caa has 2 or 3 dominant teams and one of them wins the conference, we will get 2

[JoeyBagODonuts1]

Since at large bids are not usually given below an 11 seed, the CAA needs to have a top 40 team that loses in the conference final to have a shot at a 2nd bid.

[joeg1]

We will have 2 top 40 teams

[dutchPride86]

We will have 2 top 40 teams

Hofstra could go 18-0 in conference and not sniff the top 40. We barely even moved 5 spots beating Syracuse.