The Race For First

[Wags]

UNCW was up 10 at the half in Delaware tonight, then lost by 11.

With only three games left for each team, there is now a four-way tie for first place (Northeastern, William & Mary, James Madison and UNC-Wilmington each at 10-5), with Hofstra (9-6) a game back in fifth place, Drexel (8-7) in sixth and Delaware (7-8) in seventh.

If Hofstra would have beaten Towson at home the way it did on the road, there would have been a five-way tie for first place.

Anyway, here is the remaining schedule for the top five:

Northeastern: Drexel, at Elon, at Charleston
William & Mary: at Hofstra, Towson, Drexel
James Madison: Charleston, at UNCW, Hofstra
UNC-Wilmington: at Towson, James Madison, at Elon
Hofstra: William & Mary, Charleston, at James Madison

How do we see this playing out by the end of the regular season on Feb. 28?

[HU87]

Gotta love this as a HU/CAA fan... It's still anybody's conference. If we can pull out a win against W&M, this could really get interesting for us. If I had to optimistically pick, I'd say it'll end up:

1. Northeastern at 13-5 (3-0, easiest remaining schedule)
2. UNCW at 12-6 (wins over Towson and James Madison, loss to Drexel)
3. Hofstra at 12-6 (Wins over W&M and/or Charleston/JM
4. W&M at 11-7 (1-2 in remaining 3 games. I know, I know-- but this team seems to play down to lower competition, with almost all of its in conference loses on the season coming against COC, UDEL and Charleston. A loss against us on our turf and a loss to either Towson or Drexel seems more than possible)
5. James Madison at 11-7 (1-2, with losses to us and UNCW)

Again, this is optimistic, but plausible in my eyes. Either way, should be a great finish!

[EvanJ]

The CAA is the only conference/league/association where every team has at least 5 conference/league/association losses.

[Dooku25]

Anyone know the tiebreakers? I would assume head to head would be first, but I'm wondering how the seeds will be determined if teams split their head to heads. Also how would seeds be determined in 3, 4 of 5-way ties??? This is setting up to be a quite a finish.

[hualum]

I would love nothing more than to see us beat W&M on Sunday. . .but the way we have played at home AND vs. top CAA Teams this year I am not optimistic.

NE has the clear path to #1. That said the 2 should be our goal. That seed COULD come down to the JMU Game even if we lose to W&M.

but I don't see it.
NE 13-5
W&M 13-5
UNCW 13-5
JMU 12-6
HU 11-7

the 5 is where we seem to be headed. I would LOVE to see them prove me wrong. That being said. . . when did we have a BIGGER HOME game than this coming Sunday? Wish I could go.

[Wags]

Anyone know the tiebreakers? I would assume head to head would be first, but I'm wondering how the seeds will be determined if teams split their head to heads. Also how would seeds be determined in 3, 4 of 5-way ties??? This is setting up to be a quite a finish.

I think it used to be: after head-to-head, record for each team against the best team, then against the next best, and the next, and so on, until the tie is broken. But (if that's how it was done before) I'm not sure if that might still be the rule.

[Wags]

I would love nothing more than to see us beat W&M on Sunday. . .but the way we have played at home AND vs. top CAA Teams this year I am not optimistic.

NE has the clear path to #1. That said the 2 should be our goal. That seed COULD come down to the JMU Game even if we lose to W&M.

I think, especially in a year like this one, which is as close as ever, the matchups matter way more than the seeds. You could be a 2 (or 3) and not match up in the semis with a 3 (or 2) as well as you might match up with a 1 (even as a 4 or 5). The main thing is don't fall to 6 so you don't have to see a 3 right away (although again, it's so close this year, playing in the 4-5 game could be even tougher depending on the matchup), and certainly don't fall any lower than 6, so you don't have to play the extra game on Friday. At this point, HU still has to take care of some business to get at least a 6 and avoid Friday, but HU is in very good shape for that (a lot would have to go wrong to fall that far).

[EvanJ]

At this point, HU still has to take care of some business to get at least a 6 and avoid Friday, but HU is in very good shape for that (a lot would have to go wrong to fall that far).

Delaware just lost to Elon, which clinches a Top 6 seed for Hofstra because they would win a tiebreaker against Delaware and have already clinched having more CAA wins than Towson, Elon, and College of Charleston.

[Wags]

At this point, HU still has to take care of some business to get at least a 6 and avoid Friday, but HU is in very good shape for that (a lot would have to go wrong to fall that far).

Delaware just lost to Elon, which clinches a Top 6 seed for Hofstra because they would win a tiebreaker against Delaware and have already clinched having more CAA wins than Towson, Elon, and College of Charleston.

So typical of this conference this year.

Delaware had beaten Northeastern and William & Mary (each on the road) and UNCW in three of its prior four games, and then loses at home to ninth-place Elon.

[hualum]

so unless I am not seeing something. . . we are going to play JMU on sat of CAA's in QTR finals. AND then face (most likely) the #1 Seed on Sunday.

[cactus]

so unless I am not seeing something. . . we are going to play JMU on sat of CAA's in QTR finals. AND then face (most likely) the #1 Seed on Sunday.

Out of the top 4 teams, Northeastern is the only one with 2 games left (everyone else has 1), and none of them play each other. At 11-5 they could finish anywhere from 1st to 4th. So the first game isn't set yet. (Hofstra would play JMU again in the 4-5 game if they beat them this weekend in the regular season finale.) The Pride are however locked in at the 4-5 seed (they have tiebreaker if they finish tied with Drexel for 5th), which means they do face the #1 seed on Sunday if they win in the first round of the tourney, regardless of what happens the rest of the regular season. I think the best draw for Hofstra would be if W&M & Northeastern finish 2-3 in the conference, so they'd avoid the potential of facing both teams until the finals.

[Dooku25]

I looked at this quick but I think we should root for Drexel to beat W&M. UNCW beat NE twice this year so if they both win their final games and finish 13-5, the finish should be 1-UNCW, 2- NE, with 3-W&M at 12-6 if they lose to Drexel. This would give us JMU then UNCW in the semi's while NE would face WM. Of course upsets happen anyway so who knows how things will shake out.

[Wags]

I looked at this quick but I think we should root for Drexel to beat W&M. UNCW beat NE twice this year so if they both win their final games and finish 13-5, the finish should be 1-UNCW, 2- NE, with 3-W&M at 12-6 if they lose to Drexel. This would give us JMU then UNCW in the semi's while NE would face WM. Of course upsets happen anyway so who knows how things will shake out.

Nothing matters of course if HU doesn't get by its first game (which agreed, is looking more and more like a 4/5 matchup with JMU).

But also agree, if HU can reach the semis, the best scenario be UNCW as the 1 seed. Even with UNCW as a 1, the two best teams are probably W&M and NU, so if they can play each other in a 2/3 matchup, at least it guarantees that you'd only have to go through one, but not both of them.

With Damion Lee out for the season though, don't count on Drexel beating W&M. I still think the Tribe finds its way to #1 when all is said and done this Saturday.

[cactus]

Hofstra has to beat JMU and then very likely UNCW to make the conference tournament final.

As bad as they looked today, I think they'd have taken that in a second at the start of the season.

[EvanJ]

UNC Wilmington is down 18 with 2:20 left. If they lose, the CAA will be won at 12-6. That would be the worst conference winning percentage by a conference champions since 2004-2005, when the Atlantic Sun had a tie at 13-7 (worse than 12-6) and the Mid-American and Southwestern Athletic were each won at 12-6. That doesn't include other conferences this season. The Big 12, Mid-American, and Mountain West could be won at 12-6.

[cactus]

Hofstra has to beat JMU and then very likely UNCW to make the conference tournament final.

As bad as they looked today, I think they'd have taken that in a second at the start of the season.

Elon winning throws it all off now...

[Wags]

Here are the tourney pairings:

http://caasports.com/news/2015/2/28/MBB_0228151027.aspx

W&M backs into the top seed after a bad loss; HU gets JMU again.

[HUSID80]

I happen to like this matchup...tough to beat somebody three times...we need to come out ready to play...no chucking threes and we have shown we can turn them over. Go to the hoop hard all they and press them and we win...and I'm not afraid of UNCW as we should have swept them. It's all in front of us, now we need to grab it.

[stuball888]

Agree its tough to beat a team three times but Delaware did it to us last year. We do not match mup well with NU, William and mary, and JMU.