Flying Dutchmen Fans

This coming week is likely to tell us a lot about our team and our chances in the CAA playoffs.

Currently, the top five teams in the CAA are:

1. Charleston (16-8, 9-2) W5
2. UNCW (19-4, 8-2) L1
3. Hofstra (16-9, 7-5) W3
4. Stony Brook (15-10, 7-5) W1
5. Drexel (13-12, 7-5) W1

On Monday (2/9), Charleston hosts UNCW (on the CBS Sports Network).
On Thursday, (2/12) we play at Charleston (on FloCollege).
And next Saturday (2/14), we visit UNCW (also on the CBS Sports Network).

#4 Stony Brook is one of the hottest teams in the CAA, having won six of its last seven games. The Seawolves only loss in that span was a one-point defeat at Monmouth.

#5 Drexel has been up and down, and has a challenging road ahead. The Dragons play their next two games against Monmouth and Stony Brook, and conclude their season on our home court.

We are relatively healthy and playing well.

Will start a thread for our UNCW game after Monday night.

How did you do the tiebreakers? We beat Drexel, Drexel beat Stony Brook, and Stony Brook beat us, so head-to-head is 1-1. Stony Brook beat Charleston, so they get third. If you start the tiebreakers between us and Drexel, we are above them. If you continue the tiebreakers to record against a group of teams tied below us, they are above us. If we lose at Charleston and UNCW, it will be hard to win a tiebreaker against Stony Brook even if we win the second head-to-head game. Hampton beating W&M was good.

I didn't calculate any tiebreakers. I just listed the top five teams from the CAA's current standings:

https://caasports.com/standings.aspx?path=mbball

Take note that ESPN (LAUGH) has us at a 53% chance to beat Charleston on the road in that ZOO atmosphere there. Now that's interesting and I believe we will win this game because right now we're a better team with Patterson back!

triplec2195 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 08, 2026 9:58 am Take note that ESPN (LAUGH) has us at a 53% chance to beat Charleston on the road in that ZOO atmosphere there. Now that's interesting and I believe we will win this game because right now we're a better team with Patterson back!

Charleston’s metrics have never recovered from their lackluster non conference results, despite their record in conference. Conversely since all our conference losses have been close (and we've now stacked 3 straight blowout wins), we're still the top ranked team in the league in both kenpom and the NET.

If those win percentages weren't solely calculated off a computer we wouldn't be favored to win down there. But its certainly a game we can win if team brings it like they did yesterday

dutchPride86 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 08, 2026 1:16 pm

triplec2195 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 08, 2026 9:58 am Take note that ESPN (LAUGH) has us at a 53% chance to beat Charleston on the road in that ZOO atmosphere there. Now that's interesting and I believe we will win this game because right now we're a better team with Patterson back!

Charleston’s metrics have never recovered from their lackluster non conference results, despite their record in conference. Conversely since all our conference losses have been close (and we've now stacked 3 straight blowout wins), we're still the top ranked team in the league in both kenpom and the NET.

If those win percentages weren't solely calculated off a computer we wouldn't be favored to win down there. But its certainly a game we can win if team brings it like they did yesterday

Lets make these rankings accurate and win the next two games on the road!

KenPom expects us to win 74-72 with a 56 percent chance of winning. KenPom has Charleston worse than every team in the Power Four and Big East, and worse than W&M, who is 6-6 in the CAA. In our games against the nearest teams to Charleston in KenPom, we lost by 7 at W&M, and won by an average of 17.5 against Towson twice, Merrimack, and Penn.

These next 2 are as big as it gets during this regular season - brutal road games - taking at least 1 is the goal here and would be a good sign. Lose both would be crappy, but will depend on how the games are won or lost. The schedule finishes up well for the last 4 heading into the CAAT.

Big time test for Speedy & Co. Especially coaching as these are arguably better staffs. This is exactly where HU's road heavy OOC is supposed to come into play - HU should be very seasoned for this, and to be fair, HU usually shows up in these tough spots. Time to lay it out on the table and see what's up with this squad.

Have to at least keep these games close to come away with any positivity. If HU loses either or both by double digits that's the writing on the wall. If HU keeps them within single digits, or even wins 1 or 2, then it's game on in the CAAT.

Really impressive performance by UNCW tonight... took it to Charleston on the road in a national TV game. Charleston is gonna be pissed and desperate for us on Thursday now. Can't imagine they lose back to back home games too often

Agree dutchPride, was hoping that Charleston would win ve UNCW....they will be ready for us...will we be ready for them?

Oooff... not great Bob lol. We may be in some trouble here. Although I am really hoping and praying that HU has figured some things out of late and we head into this a bit of a different animal than during the L streak.

Charleston's loss changed our KenPom expectation from us winnning 74-72 to 74-71. Charleston scored only 64. Charleston had 19 fewer field goal attempts. 6 more free throw attempts made up for a little of that. Jlynn Counter scored 20, but he made only 3 of 10 twos, and committed 5 turnovers. UNCW had 10 assists and 5 turnovers, and Charleston had 6 assists and 13 turnovers. Charleston had two scoreless starters who each missed 3 field goals. Neither team had a lot of depth. UNCW used eight players. Charleston used nine players, including a guy who had no positive contributions in 4 minutes. Charleston sub center Chol Machot committed 8 fouls in 26 minutes in the last two games.

Charleston made 59 percent more free throws than their opponents, and we made 4 percent fewer free throws than our opponents.

We have two tough road games coming up, and they’re back-to-back. These could be an important step toward winning the CAA in March. It’s a good warm-up for the tournament. They aren’t exactly must-win games, but with our roster looking healthy, these matchups should give us a good sense of how we stack up against the best teams in our conference.

daHUPride wrote: ↑Wed Feb 11, 2026 6:32 am We have two tough road games coming up, and they’re back-to-back. These could be an important step toward winning the CAA in March. It’s a good warm-up for the tournament. They aren’t exactly must-win games, but with our roster looking healthy, these matchups should give us a good sense of how we stack up against the best teams in our conference.

If they're serious contenders for a title in DC, find a way to get a split on this trip and win the last four to end 12-6 heading into the tourney.

Given what UNCW just did at Charleston and that Charleston's win in Hempstead was a very winnable, two-point loss, the first one seems to be the more "gettable" one, but we'll see. Either way, 1-1 followed 4-0 indicates a legit contender instead of a pretender.

Agree on that Wags - these next 2 need to be taken very seriously by this staff / team. You really have to likely win at least 1... at a minimum keep them both within 5 where you could easily see a win next time.

Worst case is we get run off the floor in either or both - that absolutely cannot happen if we are going to make any real run in the CAAT. Especially at largely full strength here. I don't think that will happen, but just saying no excuses - they spent half their season on the road to prepare for these moments - let's see it.

So ESPN makes what appears to be conflicting predictions giving us a 54% chance of winning this game but has us as 1.5 points underdogs. This really is all meaningless since we know the game isn't played on paper but like I've said I very much like our chances to win this game playing with a healthy team.

Ay this point we need to take every GAME SERIOUSLY. We need to win one of these tough road games and then sweep the last four to get into the Top Four.
I beleive we are peaking at the right time and we are healthy...time to show it on the court!

Granted there are ZERO power conference games scheduled tonight (let alone any ranked games), but Hofstra Charleston made both Joe Lunardi and Jon Rothstein's lists of games to watch tonight. Nice chance to earn some eyeballs

triplec2195 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 11, 2026 8:17 pm So ESPN makes what appears to be conflicting predictions giving us a 54% chance of winning this game but has us as 1.5 points underdogs. This really is all meaningless since we know the game isn't played on paper but like I've said I very much like our chances to win this game playing with a healthy team.

The probability is made by ESPN. The line is made by an oddsmaker. It is not one formula making both. I would not like it if every computer formula and the line favored the same team in every game that was expected to be close.

https://gohofstra.com/news/2026/2/8/men ... eston.aspx is our preview titled "Hofstra Begins Carolina Road Trip At Charleston."

https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/side ... game26.pdf is our game notes.

https://cofcsports.com/news/2026/2/11/m ... o-td-arena is Charleston's preview titled "Men's Basketball Welcome Hofstra to TD Arena."

https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/side ... 0211041049 is Charleston's game notes.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/sc ... /2026.html has Charleston's statistics.

https://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=610977 will have statistics.

KenPom expects us to win 74-72 with a 58 percent chance of winning.

The CAA has five games tonight, which are all at 7:00 P.M. Campbell (6-6), Hampton (6-6), and North Carolina A&T (2-10) do not play. Here is the schedule for the other four games:

Elon (5-7) at UNCW (9-2) on WITN in Greenville, North Carolina
https://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=613436 will have statistics.
KenPom expects UNCW to win 80-72 with a 77 percent chance of winning.

William & Mary (6-6) at Northeastern (2-10)
https://stats.statbroadcast.com/statmonitr/?id=613539 will have statistics.
KenPom expects W&M to win 86-80 with a 70 percent chance of winning.

Stony Brook (7-5) at Towson (5-7) on Monumental Sports Network
https://stats.statbroadcast.com/statmonitr/?id=615177 will have statistics.
KenPom expects Towson to win 66-62 with a 65 percent chance of winning

Monmouth (6-5) at Drexel (7-5)
https://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=611432
KenPom expects Drexel to win 66-63 with a 61 percent chance of winning.

EvanJ wrote: ↑Thu Feb 12, 2026 2:47 pm KenPom expects us to win 74-72 with a 58 percent chance of winning.

That's surprising. Great if it happens!