Flying Dutchmen Fans

We wrap up our long weekend in Philadelphia by taking on Penn, host of the Cathedral Classic.

The Quakers have not won an Ivy League championship since 2007 and have a new coach this year.

Howevere, Penn just defeated St. Joe's and Drexel to advance to the Big 5 Classic final on Dec. 6. For those who want to scout the Quakers, the former game is archived on ESPN+ and the latter on FloHoops.

Both ESPN+ and WRHU (HAWC) will carry the game.

More about Penn:

https://www.thedp.com/article/2025/11/p ... -transfers

https://pennathletics.com/sports/mens-basketball

Penn came back from as many as 15 down in the 2nd half to beat La Salle 73-71. Even though this isnt a bracket-style tourney, tomorrow's game does now shape up to be a de-facto championship game as a result

TJ Power, a 6-9 junior who played his freshman year at Duke and his sophomore year at Virginia, led Penn with 29 points, including four threes during Quakers' second-half run:

https://pennathletics.com/news/2025/11/ ... 73-71.aspx

Penn's HC is Fran McCaffrey. Don't we have a history with him?

My Dad remembers during an ESPN Bracket Buster game against Siena, both McCaffrey and his wife were ejected. I looked up the game, and it was in 2006. The score was Hofstra 76- Siena 62. There are articles about the incident.

dutchPride86 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 29, 2025 8:27 pm Penn came back from as many as 15 down in the 2nd half to beat La Salle 73-71. Even though this isnt a bracket-style tourney, tomorrow's game does now shape up to be a de-facto championship game as a result

Tournaments like ours have a few mathematical possibilities, some of which produce one winner like tomorrow will, and some do not. 3-0, 2-1, 1-2, and 0-3 produces one winner. So does 3-0, 1-2, 1-2, and 1-2. 2-1, 2-1, 2-1, and 0-3 produces three top teams. 2-1, 2-1, 1-2, and 1-2 produces two top teams. If the upcoming Winter Olympics have any sport with round-robin groups of four, the same possible records apply. The World Cup has round-robin groups of four, but it has way more possibilities because draws are possible.

The Shadow wrote: ↑Sat Nov 29, 2025 11:28 pm My Dad remembers during an ESPN Bracket Buster game against Siena, both McCaffrey and his wife were ejected. I looked up the game, and it was in 2006. The score was Hofstra 76- Siena 62. There are articles about the incident.

I have an easy time remembering what year that was because we got snubbed from the NCAA Tournament. The BracketBusters normally paired equal teams, but in that case Siena was much worse than us, so beating them did not help, whereas George Mason won at Wichita State, which was a better nonconference win than any of ours. Wichita State got a 7 seed, and finished 26th in KenPom, while Siena finished 132nd. We lost by a lot to Notre Dame in our only game against a top conference, but the CAA was great that year, and according to the RPI we should have been an 8 seed, and George Mason (who got an 11) should have been a 7.

KenPom expects us to win 78-76 with a 56 percent chance of winning.

This overlaps with our Men's Soccer Round of 16 game.

We’re 1.5 point favorites today with a 41% chance of winning per ESPN. lol enough said!!

triplec2195 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 30, 2025 9:35 am We’re 1.5 point favorites today with a 41% chance of winning per ESPN. lol enough said!!

Love to talk to ESPPN's analytics folks as to how they can come up with a points favorite yet give the favorite less of a chance of winning.

Perhaps Evan has some thoughts about this.

Yeah Evan will come up with something I’m sure!

Lol ill help Evan out here. Its really not as complicated or sinister as you guys think. ESPN has their own BPI rankings for cbb. Hofstra currently in the 160s and Penn in the 180s. So take those rankings and factor in this being a home game for Penn and the computer spits out the 60/40% chance to win split for Penn on espn analytics.

The odds makers in Vegas (for ESPN Bet, DraftKings, etc) use kenpom. There Hofstra is 145 and Penn 207, so even with home court factor Hofstra comes out a small favorite.

Neither the game line or espn analytics odds has anything to do with eye test or any actual thought and analysis of either team

And the ESPN Analytics and betting odds literally have nothing to do with each other. Completely separate entities

If anyone is in town, we'll be at monks by 1 pm, drinks on me if you can find us (we are hard to miss). Back bar if front one is too crowded.

HUSID74 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 30, 2025 12:38 pm

triplec2195 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 30, 2025 9:35 am We’re 1.5 point favorites today with a 41% chance of winning per ESPN. lol enough said!!

Love to talk to ESPPN's analytics folks as to how they can come up with a points favorite yet give the favorite less of a chance of winning.

Perhaps Evan has some thoughts about this.

We have discussed this numerous times on the forum. The points spread they post is just straight from the Penn Entertainment sports book (and soon will switch to Draft Kings sports book) which as we all know is not a prediction on what will happen but what the sports book do to maximize their earnings.

The chance of winning is a computer formula they use based on stats which early in the season will be less reliable and I would imagine for non power conference teams will also be less reliable.

Might be the first time Speedy has gone to 3 guard offense with Cruz, Edmead and Wills and it shows. Not sure why they dont try more of Biggie and DeCady together when German sits

Sorry, but this kid Wills can't put it in the Holland Tunnel why is he getting minutes?

mikey75 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 30, 2025 4:23 pm Sorry, but this kid Wills can't put it in the Holland Tunnel why is he getting minutes?

Lol agreed. Speedy must like his defense i dunno. Felt like Biggie was unnecessarily in the doghouse that half. Need to keep him involved that was a big corner 3 there in the last minute

Feel kinda fortunate to only be down 2. Again effort was real solid, but execution not so much. Penn is definitely the best of the 3 teams we've faced this weekend. But clean up the turnovers and Penns 2nd chance opportunities and game is there for the taking

Critical couple mins coming up right here as we hit the under 8. Penn came back from 15 down yesterday cant let up. When hofstras execution matches the effort this team has something

Terrific win. Best half of the season. Super encouraging after last year that this team is playing better in 2nd halves

3 things to be excited about...

1. Defensive effort. 2 games in a row they completely took their opponent out of it in 2nd half on defensive end. Winning basketball
2. Role players contributing. Edmead and Cruz's 13 combined assists werent all to each other... German, Biggie, and even Wills combined for 5 made 3s (all in last minute of 1st half and 2nd half)
3. Showing improvement game to game... FT shooting and fouls in general much better last couple games

Also love the bench reaction to Roberts making a 3 in the final minute. This team seems to like each other, really starting to gel

I missed the game, and I am pleasantly surprised. Penn shot threes better than twos, and they shot twos a horrible .319. Allowing 60 or fewer three days in a row is great. Here are the leaders from the Analytics tab. In efficiency, Edmead and Onuetu tied for first with 21, Davis and Plotnkiov tied for third with 14, and Penn's leader was Dalton Scantlebury with 13. In game score, Edmead was first with 13.7, Onuetu was second with 12.5, and Scantlebury was third with 11.7. In net points, Roberts was first with 4.0, Davis was second with 3.7, and Michelangelo Alberti was third with 2.5. Roberts and Alberti played for 1:37. Net points is negative for all players combined. Even in a win by 17, eight of our ten players were negative, and we added up to -21.9. Penn added up to -34.8.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tu4D03Jo6QE is Claxton's press conference. We did not post highlights yet.

The CAA went 3-1 today. Charleston got a 96-73 loss hosting undefeated Belmont. Belmont is in their fourth season in the Missouri Valley, and they might be able to get an at-large bid. The CAA is 44-42 nonconference against Division I. The CAA was below .500 against Division I in the last eight seasons.

We moved up to 134th in KenPom, and second in the CAA behind UNCW in 97th. We are better than average for 23 of 31 conferences, with the Power Four, Big East, Mountain West, Atlantic 10, and West Coast being better. We are slightly better than the American Athletic. KenPom says we have the best defense in the CAA, which we also had last season. We play at an average tempo, whereas last season we had a very slow tempo.

KenPom expects us to lose 73-70 at Columbia with a 42 percent chance of winning.

What an awesome way to spend a weekend! 3-0!

RainDelay wrote: ↑Sun Nov 30, 2025 8:51 pm What an awesome way to spend a weekend! 3-0!

With two blowouts and the Preston Edmeade show. If we can keep this kid here for 4 years imagine what kind of player he could develop into.

triplec2195 wrote:

RainDelay wrote: ↑Sun Nov 30, 2025 8:51 pm What an awesome way to spend a weekend! 3-0!

With two blowouts and the Preston Edmeade show. If we can keep this kid here for 4 years imagine what kind of player he could develop into.

I’ll be happy with 2


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