Flying Dutchmen Fans

Starting off the tournament thread with this:

https://twitter.com/HofstraMBB/status/1 ... 2627419137

Now let's return to the same place after three wins!

A tall order but lets take one game at a time and hope we can reach the finish line. GO PRIDE!!

I found https://www.redshirtjuniormbb.com/blog/ ... -picks-caa which has odds from before the season on November 6. I converted removed JMU and the odds into probabilities. I got CAA Tournament probabilities from Ken Pomeroy's Twitter at https://twitter.com/kenpomeroy/status/1 ... 70/photo/1 and here are the teams sorted by CAA Tournament probability with their preseason probability, CAA Tournament probability, and change during the season:

Towson: 1.8% to 50.1%, +48.3%
Hofstra: 7.1% to 16.6%, +9.5%
Drexel: 3.5% to 8.2%, +4.7%
Charleston: 2.8% to 8.0%, +5.2%
UNCW: 1.4% to 7.1%, +5.7%
Delaware: 26.2% to 7.1%, -19.1%
Elon: 15.3% to 2.2%, -13.1%
Northeastern: 40.7% to 0.7%, -40.0%
W&M: 1.4% to 0.01% (I'm rounding this to 0%), -1.4%

Here are the teams sorted by change during the season:

Towson: +48.3%
Hofstra: +9.5%
UNCW: +5.7%
Charleston: +5.2%
Drexel: +4.7%
W&M: -1.4%
Elon: -13.1%
Delaware: -19.1%
Northeastern: -40.0%

The sum of the changes is -0.2% percent because of rounding.

Here are KenPom's scores and probabilities for the four games when both teams are known:

Northeastern defeats W&M 68-2 with a 72% of winning
Drexel defeats Delaware 73-72 with a 52% chance of winning
UNCW defeats Elon 70-67 with a 62% chance at winning
Hofstra defeates Charleston 82-79 with a 59% chance at winning

4 vs. 5 games are supposed to be close, but it's possible for there to be a big gap between fourth and fifth, or to have one of them have their conference standings rank be significantly different from their rank in formulas for all teams like UNCW is. In this case, 4 seed Drexel is 0.74 better than Delaware in the Sagarin and 0.86 better in KenPom. Even if Towson wins a blowout, anybody who watches Sunday's first doubleheader could get a close ending.

After a very low-scoring first half (18-17, Northeastern), the ninth-seeded Huskies advance to play top-seeded Towson, after beating eighth-seeded William & Mary, 68-63, in overtime.

Chris Doherty, who gave Hofstra fits in Hempstead this season, scored a game-high 26 points on perfect 10/10 shooting for Northeastern.

There are some unique statistics. Doherty shot 20-20 against W&M this season. Northeastern shot free throws 5-14 in overtime and had six pairs without making both.
Northeastern's Quirin Emanga became the first CAA player with no made field goals and at least 10 rebounds since W&M's Mekhel Harvey on January 2, 2021, and the first Northeastern player to do that since Reggie Spencer on December 22, 2013. Bill Coen became the first coach to win 19 CAA Tournament games as he broke a tie with George Mason's Jim Larranaga. http://stats.statbroadcast.com/statmonitr/?id=383656 has statistics.

As if beating Towson wasn't hard enough, they get to face a team that played overtime.

So northeastern wins two games all conference season. Then plays both teams in the conference tournament. That has to be a pretty rare occurrence.

HofstraMathew wrote:So northeastern wins two games all conference season. Then plays both teams in the conference tournament. That has to be a pretty rare occurrence.

Was thinking about this since Northeastern beat W&M at home. It's the perfect situation for a team like them. When you go 2-16 in league play, who else would you want to play in the conference tourney than the two teams you beat, including taking a shot at beating the top seed again in a noon start, in the top seed's first game, after you already got the jitters out and got used to the arena the league hadn't played in for a couple years before the top seed had a chance to do the same.

You're groping at straws but lets bring on a miracle here. Fingers crossed!!

Wags wrote:

HofstraMathew wrote:So northeastern wins two games all conference season. Then plays both teams in the conference tournament. That has to be a pretty rare occurrence.

Was thinking about this since Northeastern beat W&M at home. It's the perfect situation for a team like them. When you go 2-16 in league play, who else would you want to play in the conference tourney than the two teams you beat, including taking a shot at beating the top seed again in a noon start, in the top seed's first game, after you already got the jitters out and got used to the arena the league hadn't played in for a couple years before the top seed had a chance to do the same.

Not so far fetched...Coen is the best coach in the League according to Polito...LOL so I give the Huskies a reasonable shot against Towson....would be GREAT for us but we need to take care of OUR business.

Northeastern taking it to Towson, 16-8 with 7:56 left in the first half....SMELLING UPSET?????

way too early

Towson has caught up. BTW, why are the Tigers wearing powder blue? Trying to channel UNC?

Jojogunne wrote:Towson has caught up. BTW, why are the Tigers wearing powder blue? Trying to channel UNC?

Announcers mentioned it’s their jersey to support autism. Mentioned that Pat Skerry’s son has autism.

Jojogunne wrote:Towson has caught up. BTW, why are the Tigers wearing powder blue? Trying to channel UNC?

Those are their alternates. Been wearing them several times this season. They look nice but shouldn't be wearing a color that isn't one of your team's colors.

They've caught up but NU still leads at halftime. The top seed is in the same situation against NU that the 8 seed was in at the same point yesterday. If Towson lets NU hang around in the first eight minutes of the second half, NU will likely hang around all game.

jaspegs wrote:

Jojogunne wrote:Towson has caught up. BTW, why are the Tigers wearing powder blue? Trying to channel UNC?

Announcers mentioned it’s their jersey to support autism. Mentioned that Pat Skerry’s son has autism.

In that case, it's cool. But normally, I don't like teams wearing non-school colors.

good first half for northeastern, towson made a big run after a slow start but NE still has a 1 pt lead heading into half.

triplec2195 wrote:You're groping at straws but lets bring on a miracle here. Fingers crossed!!

Not really. Those things matter. NU looked like a team that was used to the arena already while Towson did not, taking a long time to finally look comfortable. As a result, Nu got out to a big enough lead that the Huskies withstood a 17-6 answer from Towson and NU takes a lead into the second half. Let's see if NU can hang around now.

Danger time for NU as Towson has found its stroke from 3... 3/5 from there in the first 3:15 of the second half. Towson was just 2/9 from 3 in the first half.

38-30, Tigers.

Still praying!!

Towson really doesn't look that impressive overall.

Timberlake from 3 in the second half (5/7 in the half) is saving them.

58-53, Towson with 3:51 left. Ironically, the same score Northeastern beat Towson by on Feb. 5!