MBB Game 29 vs. James Madison on February 23 4:00 P.M.

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Wags
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Re: MBB Game 29 vs. James Madison on February 23 4:00 P.M.

Post by Wags »

joeg1 wrote: Much easier to make a 3 than make a ft, miss and get a rebound and get a basket. That is common sense. Always foul. Ask Evan about Bayesian probability

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Ask Purdue about that and if they'd like to have that decision back. They'd otherwise be playing in the Final Four this Saturday.

It may not be much easier to make that 3 than to get a rebound if that 3 is properly defended. If properly defended, and you're willing to give up the 2, it's extremely difficult to get off a good enough look from 3 that has a good chance of going in.

Not everything in sports comes down to a scientific formula. If you play good, solid defense, you only have one thing to worry about. Your chances great if you key on stopping the 3 and aren't worrying about anything else, even giving up a 2. If you foul, you open the door for a myriad of possibilities (one of which we saw Hofstra win a game on last year). Why worry about all of those when you can focus on just one thing that you can control?

Also, if you still don't defend the 3 well enough and give up a routine 3 (without fouling), you go to OT in the worst case. If you foul, you can give up a 4-point trip in a variety of ways, and now you lose in regulation. Why would you willingly open up the latter scenario when you don't have to? Sometimes, you just have to trust your defense and execute for one play.
EvanJ
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Re: MBB Game 29 vs. James Madison on February 23 4:00 P.M.

Post by EvanJ »

"Sometimes" could be the key word. There could be coaches who will always want their teams to foul, coaches who never want their teams to foul, and coaches who decide based on how the opposing players shoot threes. There could be coaches who want their team to foul much more often or less often than the previous season because the team's defense is better or worse. Matt Lewis shot threes .326, so if Hofstra expected him to shoot, that could make them decide not to foul. Darius Banks at .493 and Deshon Parker at .398 shot threes much better. Teams aren't going to want a freshman (Parker) averaging 5.7 points to take a shot needed to force overtime, and Stuckey Mosley was affected by injury, so Hofstra should have expected Lewis or Banks to try the three. Lewis shot threes much more often than Banks. Lewis had 42.2 percent of his field goal attempts be threes compared to 29.4 percent of Banks' field goal attempts. The statistics were a little different then, but it was late in the season.
triplec2195
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Re: MBB Game 29 vs. James Madison on February 23 4:00 P.M.

Post by triplec2195 »

EvanJ wrote:"Sometimes" could be the key word. There could be coaches who will always want their teams to foul, coaches who never want their teams to foul, and coaches who decide based on how the opposing players shoot threes. There could be coaches who want their team to foul much more often or less often than the previous season because the team's defense is better or worse. Matt Lewis shot threes .326, so if Hofstra expected him to shoot, that could make them decide not to foul. Darius Banks at .493 and Deshon Parker at .398 shot threes much better. Teams aren't going to want a freshman (Parker) averaging 5.7 points to take a shot needed to force overtime, and Stuckey Mosley was affected by injury, so Hofstra should have expected Lewis or Banks to try the three. Lewis shot threes much more often than Banks. Lewis had 42.2 percent of his field goal attempts be threes compared to 29.4 percent of Banks' field goal attempts. The statistics were a little different then, but it was late in the season.
This game is water way under the bridge but still leaves a bad taste in your mouth. Matt Lewis was having an unbelievable day feeling very comfortable so again that dictates IMO to really what should have happened here. In retrospect somebody said he was hitting shots from the parking lot a good analogy on how HOT he was that day.
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