MBB Game 29 vs. James Madison on February 23 4:00 P.M.

[Wags]

IMO if we contested the inbound that shot probably would have had to have been taken from around half court. Now you tell me what the probability is of hitting that shot from half court. Just being reasonable and using common sense maybe 5%? There's no doubt in my mind in the absence of a HAIL MARY that we win this game if we just pressure the ball or slow Lewis down so he has to launch this from around half court. The shot he took he was hitting all day long we made it easy for him. A total blunder IMO!!

Not saying it's crazy to foul. I know a lot of people like to and I think there are legitimate arguments on both sides. But I've seen it backfire many times. In the case you're laying out, he doesn't need to make the shot from half court if you foul him too late and he gets it off in time. That's three FTs and he can still tie the game at the line. And like I said, there are other scenarios even if you do foul in time. Or do we not remember how HOFSTRA beat Monmouth last year? If you simply execute the D you're supposed to execute for a mere :03.8, the chances that he won't make a game-tying 3 are heavily in your favor without opening it up to a variety of other possible ways to lose the game (like Hofstra-Monmouth). Even with Joe saying what he said about fouling in hindsight, he still felt in the next sentence a lot more strongly that it wasn't necessary if they executed what they should have defensively. And he's right about that. That's why he called time out and didn't foul.

But the far bigger blunder was letting it get to that point in the first place. When they had the game, up 9, with a bit over 6 minutes left, they allowed JMU to take the lead on a 14-4 run, with Lewis scoring 12 in that stretch. You can't allow one guy, especially one who was averaging 15.3 ppg (not bad at all, but not like JWF or Riller), to singlehandedly beat you down the stretch like that. That was far more egregious than allowing Lewis to send the game to OT on the 3.

[EvanJ]

Kudos to our in game experience from a JMU fan.
"Also, one last point about the fan experience/arena:
I haven’t been to a JMU home b-ball game in probably 5 years. But I watch nearly every game with regularity on Madizone. The experience at hofstra yesterday felt like a big time program. They had a large security presence, decent amount of concessions, and apparel stores. They had activities set up inside the arena for kids (cornhole, pop a shot, etc). What I was most impressed with was the production team. They had music pumping leading up to the game (it sounded like state of the art speakers), and their in-arena announcer sounded like he was very excited to be there. The whole thing had a big time feel to it. I even saw scalpers, SCALPERS, at a regular season CAA game. I couldn’t possibly imagine a scenario where someone would scalp a ticket outside of a sold out game in Harrisonburg I hope those in charge of planning out the game day experience at our new arena use Hofstra as a template, because it’s certainly one to emulate."

JMU fans are worried about low attendance in the arena they are building. Here's a comparison of their attendance in seasons they were bad:

2006-2007: 7-23, 3,302
2017-2018: 10-22, 2,665
2018-2019: 13-16, 2,370

I don't know this, but maybe the three Virginia schools who left hurt JMU's attendance more than ours because those schools probably had more fans at JMU than we do.

This was the first time I heard music in the lobby. I heard "Can't Stop" by Red Hot Chili Peppers, which turned out to be our defense.

And I will add to the list of fan experiences. Like some others, I have had several experiences with people sitting behind me (in section 101) telling me to sit down when I stand up to root the team on. I'm talking about times like during the Towson OT. Are these people for real, everyone in the building should have been standing for those key few minutes. I told them to get up and cheer, as I REFUSE to sit at such times! OMG, this wasn't a chess match, its NCAA hoops!

I was fine with standing up at the end of regulation. If I had to stand up to see during all of overtime, I would have been annoyed. Luckily, I didn't.

[Flying Dutchmen]

I think I am with Wags on this one - and he has explained it well. Its attitude, attitude, attitude! Right now, our guys don't have a good one, and that is obvious. Yes, our defense around the FT line is weak, but its always been weak. Yes, the other teams are making adjustments, but those adjustments don't add up to explain the drop off in quality of play by HU that we have seen the last 5-6 games.

Honestly, that's just not true.

Our attitude is good. Our quality of play has been fine. Our offense has been mostly great the past 10 games. We set the team assists record on Saturday, as EvanJ mentioned. We're on pace to be the best offense in conference history, only the VCU team with Maynor in '07 comes close to us. Our offense is flexible enough to score from the paint, the perimeter, by moving the ball, or with isolations, we're so offensively dynamic.

We have made few defensive adjustments. The effort was unquestionably there on Saturday, but our opposition has finally realized that they can consistently beat us from the inside out. I don't know how it took so long to figure that out, all they would have had to do was watch tape of the Siena game in November. We really don't have to do much, we can stay in the base 2-3, but we need the ability to just switch to another defense for a few possessions to get our opposition out of a rhythm. I can see why the staff may be reluctant to do make changes, because in the past, we would switch defenses somewhat frequently, and our players would blow coverages for open shots, which hasn't been a big issue this year. We just need to find a of strategy to punish the opposition from living in the paint, and get them shooting jumpers again.

We're getting beat up inside, and it's leading to more shooting fouls. In our losses, our opposition got to the FT line more often, and they hit their FT at a ridiculous clip. 20-26 for Northeastern, 24-28 for UNCW, 22-24 for JMU. UNCW and JMU's success from the FT line is the main thing keeping us from 15-1 right now, even with the porous defense.

That's what's changed since the Northeastern loss, not our attitude or effort.

Ultimately, I think the last two losses were a product of our luck normalizing, and our defense showing it's true colors. At this point, we have limited options to change what we can do, but if we can find a defensive wrinkle that gets a few more stops, we could control the game with our offense more effectively, like we were doing earlier in the year, and get our opposition shooting more jumpers, and less FT shots, and that could/should be enough to get us the #1 seed, and the conference tournament.

[HUSID74]

FD I agree with you, we need one or two different looks defensively to add some doubt to our opponents offenses....said it in an earlier post on this thread...maybe go man early in a game or extend our token pressure a bit more.

Hopefully, as you said it would lead to a couple of more stops and reduced offensive efficiency...enough to get us over the top.

[HU76]

When is the last time this team played anything besides the matchup zone? You can’t make a change like that now. Besides, it would just accentuate our lack of size.

There are two games left before the tournament. We are who we are at this point.

[HUSID74]

When is the last time this team played anything besides the matchup zone? You can’t make a change like that now. Besides, it would just accentuate our lack of size.

There are two games left before the tournament. We are who we are at this point.

Disagree...man to man can be effective in as a change up, we used it last year, the kids know how to play it...I'm suggesting using it in 2-3 minute spurts.

[Wags]

I think I am with Wags on this one - and he has explained it well. Its attitude, attitude, attitude! Right now, our guys don't have a good one, and that is obvious. Yes, our defense around the FT line is weak, but its always been weak. Yes, the other teams are making adjustments, but those adjustments don't add up to explain the drop off in quality of play by HU that we have seen the last 5-6 games.

Honestly, that's just not true.

Our attitude is good. Our quality of play has been fine. Our offense has been mostly great the past 10 games. We set the team assists record on Saturday, as EvanJ mentioned. We're on pace to be the best offense in conference history, only the VCU team with Maynor in '07 comes close to us. Our offense is flexible enough to score from the paint, the perimeter, by moving the ball, or with isolations, we're so offensively dynamic.

We have made few defensive adjustments. The effort was unquestionably there on Saturday, but our opposition has finally realized that they can consistently beat us from the inside out. I don't know how it took so long to figure that out, all they would have had to do was watch tape of the Siena game in November. We really don't have to do much, we can stay in the base 2-3, but we need the ability to just switch to another defense for a few possessions to get our opposition out of a rhythm. I can see why the staff may be reluctant to do make changes, because in the past, we would switch defenses somewhat frequently, and our players would blow coverages for open shots, which hasn't been a big issue this year. We just need to find a of strategy to punish the opposition from living in the paint, and get them shooting jumpers again.

We're getting beat up inside, and it's leading to more shooting fouls. In our losses, our opposition got to the FT line more often, and they hit their FT at a ridiculous clip. 20-26 for Northeastern, 24-28 for UNCW, 22-24 for JMU. UNCW and JMU's success from the FT line is the main thing keeping us from 15-1 right now, even with the porous defense.

That's what's changed since the Northeastern loss, not our attitude or effort.

Ultimately, I think the last two losses were a product of our luck normalizing, and our defense showing it's true colors. At this point, we have limited options to change what we can do, but if we can find a defensive wrinkle that gets a few more stops, we could control the game with our offense more effectively, like we were doing earlier in the year, and get our opposition shooting more jumpers, and less FT shots, and that could/should be enough to get us the #1 seed, and the conference tournament.

Not talking about the offense. I never worry about the offense with team other than against Northeastern, because they defend. It's the attitude and energy defensively, with rebounding and going after 50/50 balls that I'm talking about. That has absolutely sagged over the last five games compared to where it was prior to that. They're getting beat up inside because the guards are not guarding anymore, and it leaves Taylor to basically fend for himself as the last line of defense, since he's the only legit big on the roster. I don't think the entire league (other than Elon) suddenly figured out that they could beat HU up inside. You don't think they knew that the first time each of them played HU this season? Of course they did. But there was resistance defensively, starting with the guards. The last five games, there hasn't been.

But as I've mentioned elsewhere, along with you and HUSID, college kids don't handle different looks well. They used to do it a little more, but they've been sticking with the 2-3 and matchup zones to a fault. In a 40-minute game at the college level, switching back and forth between zone and man, even if you play one or the other for the majority of the game, is often effective. Just not sure they can do that at this point having not done it all season. Could make things worse. But then, could it BE much worse than it's been over the past five games defensively?

[Cards]

Not talking about the offense. I never worry about the offense with team other than against Northeastern, because they defend. It's the attitude and energy defensively, with rebounding and going after 50/50 balls that I'm talking about. That has absolutely sagged over the last five games compared to where it was prior to that. They're getting beat up inside because the guards are not guarding anymore, and it leaves Taylor to basically fend for himself as the last line of defense, since he's the only legit big on the roster. I don't think the entire league (other than Elon) suddenly figured out that they could beat HU up inside. You don't think they knew that the first time each of them played HU this season? Of course they did. But there was resistance defensively, starting with the guards. The last five games, there hasn't been.

Exactly right Wags.

[Polito]

REALLY proud of myself for staying away from posting too harshly LOL there is hope for me yet!

All has really been said. Here are the two big concerns for me:

1). I hate to see obvious coaching gaffes blow opportunities for HU teams. It happens, no one or staff is perfect, yes even I get that. But it still sucks. And my biggest issue with this staff is that is all too often coaching decisions that have lead to HU choking over the years. It's a tough pill to swallow - they are also the reason HU is even IN a position to choke, they have brought in really fantastic talent for this level, but it just makes those moments almost unbearable.

2). JWF's comments the other game about the lethargic pregame attitude was absolutely alarming and horrifying to me as a fan. I appreciate his honesty and candor, and I do understand that this season is a grind by this time of year, B U T I find it unfathomable that these mostly veteran players who haven't sniffed a real postseason their entire careers now have a LEGITAMITE shot at winning the CAA outright, cutting nets, going dancing (the ultimate mid major badge of honor), and making PROGRAM history are not out of their minds fired up and focused coming out with the eye of the tiger each and every game.

I mean, fellas, wake the heck up. Or you'll be watching someone else from your living room. I feel a bit fooled here as I have lauded their leadership, but what we are seeing recently is the exact opposite.

I expect guys like Buie, JWF, and Taylor to right this ship in very short order. Every team loses at points, but what we are seeing from poor play, questionable 'tunes, and family bickering is not acceptable.

Let's go team, get back to basics and finish this RIGHT!

[Flying Dutchmen]

I don't think the entire league (other than Elon) suddenly figured out that they could beat HU up inside. You don't think they knew that the first time each of them played HU this season? Of course they did. But there was resistance defensively, starting with the guards. The last five games, there hasn't been.

Not really. I think teams have made strategy adjustments that take better advantage of our weaknesses in our zone, particularly up the middle, particularly with motion that forces a small guard on a forward in the paint, by drawing Taylor either to the top of the key, or to a side.

We've covered well this year, and I give Taylor credit for that, because he has the size/athleticism to defend himself in the middle, so our guards aren't always cheating to take pressure off the center. I thought W&M really exposed us with a better utilization of their Princeton in the 2nd game, Taylor had to keep committing to players outside of the paint, and they got mismatches for Knight and their bigger guard/forwards on the blocks. Since then we've struggled, teams have committed more to the paint than the perimeter, and we've been forced to foul more often. Keeping the opposition off the FT line is the holy grail to our success, otherwise we're going to be in shootouts.

I think when teams see a 2-3 zone, they tend to take more jump shots because there are holes in the zone on the perimeter that can be exploited. We do that, see the Towson game for example. I think the last few games though, our opposition has really focused on taking a large majority of their shots inside, and it's kept them in games, and on the FT line. I really don't see it as an effort issue, we are severely undersized, lots of times Pemba is the second largest guy we have on the floor. We can't magically just get more boards with effort when the opposition is properly utilizing their wingspan advantage. I thought we fought exceptionally hard in the JMU game, they just had a large size advantage on us, and frankly hit a lot of big shots.

I just see it as time WE make the adjustment. Our offense is so explosive, it should be helping our defense more just by putting so much pressure on the oppositions offense. It just seems like our last few opponents had us so figured out that they didn't have to think, and they gained tons of confidence because we were so predictable, hence shootouts. I agree with you, it can't be much worse if we flashed a 1-3-1 more often, or even man, just for a few minutes a game. I think you mentioned that there were two separate spans in Saturday's game where JMU made 8 consecutive shots. That is a systemic failure of the defensive scheme. We have to go to Charleston with something else up our sleeve, or we will get bounced in the quarterfinals.

[Wags]

I don't think the entire league (other than Elon) suddenly figured out that they could beat HU up inside. You don't think they knew that the first time each of them played HU this season? Of course they did. But there was resistance defensively, starting with the guards. The last five games, there hasn't been.

We've covered well this year

When talking about that this year, there's the first 24 games and the last 5. A definite difference in how they've covered and how they were helping and not helping each other, working together as a unit in the zone and how they haven't most of the time during those first 24 games vs. how that's been during these past 5 games.

Permiter shooters have been open. I saw it right in front of me when JMU didn't miss a 3 after halftime on Saturday. That's not just the weakness inside. The guy (Lewis) who put up 40 and just about singlehandedly brought JMU back after HU had taken control of the game late in the second half is a 6-5 guard who was hitting from 3 doing a lot of his damage from outside the paint. That's on the guards to actually do what their position suggests... actually GUARD.

The fact that HU got all of TWO fast break points out of their 99 in that game tells you a lot about the effort the guards are bringing defensively of late. When they were winning easily, it wasn't only Taylor being disruptive down low, the guards were playing with more energy, creating more havoc, getting turnovers and some easy buckets. That's not happening so much anymore.

But I think we're all on board that they should mix it up. Different looks usually work. Offenses at this level aren't ready for it and have a tough time reacting.

And agree with you on the size disadvantage (I mean, all you have to do is look when they take the floor)... but that's where a guy like Coburn has to do more, like he was. He was playing bigger than his size, getting boards, playing tougher D and helping HU hold its own on the boards (surprisingly, post-Rok). But his energy level and rebounding numbers have decreased (no coincidence) as HU has lost or been very shaky in wins over the past 5 games. The whole defense feeds off of him and Buie. They have to set the tone for everybody and especially Coburn, is not doing that lately.

[EvanJ]

They're getting beat up inside because the guards are not guarding anymore, and it leaves Taylor to basically fend for himself as the last line of defense, since he's the only legit big on the roster. I don't think the entire league (other than Elon) suddenly figured out that they could beat HU up inside. You don't think they knew that the first time each of them played HU this season? Of course they did. But there was resistance defensively, starting with the guards. The last five games, there hasn't been.

Here's a comment about forwards. Before last season, opponents knew what Gustys was like. Before this season, opponents didn't know as much about Taylor, Dwyer, Coburn, and Trueheart. The first three hadn't been in the CAA before.

[Wags]

They're getting beat up inside because the guards are not guarding anymore, and it leaves Taylor to basically fend for himself as the last line of defense, since he's the only legit big on the roster. I don't think the entire league (other than Elon) suddenly figured out that they could beat HU up inside. You don't think they knew that the first time each of them played HU this season? Of course they did. But there was resistance defensively, starting with the guards. The last five games, there hasn't been.

Here's a comment about forwards. Before last season, opponents knew what Gustys was like. Before this season, opponents didn't know as much about Taylor, Dwyer, Coburn, and Trueheart. The first three hadn't been in the CAA before.

There are a lot of suits on each CAA bench. They all scout other teams and come up with game plans. That's a big part of the assistants' jobs. They have a bunch of tape of other teams before they play them the first time. They know more than we realize. Then it's about getting their players to execute. That's where HU has fallen short defensively of late, more in the energy and really wanting to defend, with the guards, than anything else. Some scheme, some adjustment on other teams' part, but of late, HU is making it too easy for them by lacking the defensive energy and communication that they had before.

[EvanJ]

Taylor played 217 minutes in three seasons. Nobody including us can know how a player is going to do with much more playing time on a worse team in a much worse conference. Scouts and video can't show how a player has done averaging 20+ minutes if he's never done that.

[Wags]

Taylor played 217 minutes in three seasons. Nobody including us can know how a player is going to do with much more playing time on a worse team in a much worse conference. Scouts and video can't show how a player has done averaging 20+ minutes if he's never done that.

You're right, but I was referring to tape from this season. Other CAA teams already scouted tape of Hofstra's OCC games before playing HU the first time this season.

[Wags]

Great environment- its a shame we let it slip away. IMO you ALWAYS foul up 3 in that scenario. Joe blew it.

Could be a blessing in disguise- if we screw our heads on straight and win two on the road, all will be forgotten and we will have momentum going into the CAAs.

I get both sides of the argument with fouling, but I don't think you can say ALWAYS at all. I personally don't like to foul because too much can go wrong sometimes. They can make the first FT, miss the second, it can get tapped out for a 3 and you lose. Or, they can make the first, miss the second, get the offensive board, go back up with it and get fouled, make the FT and you lose that way. If you think that can't happen, look no further than the way Hofstra beat Monmouth last year. And look at the 4-point play JMU used in this very game to take the lead for good in OT if you happen to foul too late, before the shot is released. If you just play defense, the odds are still in your favor about 60/40 that they'll miss and you'll win even with a good 3-pt. shooting team. If they're only a decent 3-pt shooting team, it's about 65/35 in your favor, and if you're keying on stopping the 3 because you know that's what they need, it's maybe 70/30 in your favor or even better. If you execute, you'll stop it. But like Joe said, they didn't execute defensively, and even with that, it took a very tough shot that Lewis might make only 30% of the time at best in that situation.

Tonight was yet another example of this. And it cost Purdue a Final Four trip.

Don't foul. Just play defense. The odds are heavily in your favor if you do a good job of guarding against the 3, knowing a 2 can't hurt you that much.

[joeg1]

Great environment- its a shame we let it slip away. IMO you ALWAYS foul up 3 in that scenario. Joe blew it.

Could be a blessing in disguise- if we screw our heads on straight and win two on the road, all will be forgotten and we will have momentum going into the CAAs.

I get both sides of the argument with fouling, but I don't think you can say ALWAYS at all. I personally don't like to foul because too much can go wrong sometimes. They can make the first FT, miss the second, it can get tapped out for a 3 and you lose. Or, they can make the first, miss the second, get the offensive board, go back up with it and get fouled, make the FT and you lose that way. If you think that can't happen, look no further than the way Hofstra beat Monmouth last year. And look at the 4-point play JMU used in this very game to take the lead for good in OT if you happen to foul too late, before the shot is released. If you just play defense, the odds are still in your favor about 60/40 that they'll miss and you'll win even with a good 3-pt. shooting team. If they're only a decent 3-pt shooting team, it's about 65/35 in your favor, and if you're keying on stopping the 3 because you know that's what they need, it's maybe 70/30 in your favor or even better. If you execute, you'll stop it. But like Joe said, they didn't execute defensively, and even with that, it took a very tough shot that Lewis might make only 30% of the time at best in that situation.

Tonight was yet another example of this. And it cost Purdue a Final Four trip.

Don't foul. Just play defense. The odds are heavily in your favor if you do a good job of guarding against the 3, knowing a 2 can't hurt you that much.

Much easier to make a 3 than make a ft, miss and get a rebound and get a basket. That is common sense. Always foul. Ask Evan about Bayesian probability

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

[Hof_Judge99]

Tonight was yet another example of this. And it cost Purdue a Final Four trip.

Don't foul. Just play defense. The odds are heavily in your favor if you do a good job of guarding against the 3, knowing a 2 can't hurt you that much.

And us not fouling likely cost us a higher NIT seed (lol compare that to the final 4) This is such a different scenerio though, apples and oranges really. Purdue left way too much time on the clock (5.9!); when Lewis reached midcourt there were less than 2 seconds left. He was also red hot and carrying their offense. You think JMU would’ve had time to tip the ball into their back court and still score there? Also with Lewis dribbling upcourt there was no risk of it being an in the act of shooting foul. You only foul inside of 3 seconds, you can’t leave 5.9. In the JMU situation our odds of winning would’ve skyrocketed if we fouled there. Nothing is a guarentee but you have to play the percentages there.

[Wags]

And us not fouling likely cost us a higher NIT seed (lol compare that to the final 4) This is such a different scenerio though, apples and oranges really. Purdue left way too much time on the clock (5.9!); when Lewis reached midcourt there were less than 2 seconds left. He was also red hot and carrying their offense. You think JMU would’ve had time to tip the ball into their back court and still score there? Also with Lewis dribbling upcourt there was no risk of it being an in the act of shooting foul. You only foul inside of 3 seconds, you can’t leave 5.9. In the JMU situation our odds of winning would’ve skyrocketed if we fouled there. Nothing is a guarentee but you have to play the percentages there.

Was it not fouling or not playing much better defense that cost Hofstra in that game? If you play solid D, the game's over.

Who's talking about tipping the ball into the backcourt for JMU? Just because that happened for Virginia last night doesn't mean that's what would've happened with JMU. Doesn't have to be tapped into the backcourt. It can be an offensive putback (plus an unintentional foul) at the rim and a number of other possibilities you open yourself up to when you foul. What happened with Purdue and Virginia was merely one of those possibilities. If you play defense on a 3 that even a good shooter will make 40% of the time, and if you're keying on it, knowing that's what they need, that realistically drops to 30% or less, and you only have to worry about one thing - don't give up the 3 and let them get the 2 because it can't hurt you - rather than the myriad of different things that can go wrong after you foul.

Seen fouling backfire too many times. Happens pretty often. Worked in Hofstra's favor to win a game they shouldn't have won last year and Purdue would be playing in Minneapolis next weekend had they not fouled.

[EvanJ]

Much easier to make a 3 than make a ft, miss and get a rebound and get a basket. That is common sense. Always foul. Ask Evan about Bayesian probability

I'm assuming you mean multiplying the individual probabilities starting with making the first free throw. Intentionally missed free throws are rare enough that I don't know if there is data about the offensive rebound percentage from them. Because Lewis forced overtime, I got to see us break our record for assists in a game with 27. Since we won our first outright CAA regular season title and we wouldn't have gotten an at-large bid with a win in that game and everything else the same, it wasn't important.

What I propose that would end the debate is to define a period of time, such as the last 5 seconds, and any defensive foul while up exactly 3 is automatically 3 free throws.