Invitation to Join My Dad's NCAA Men's Basketball Pool

[Hofstra]

Will you be sending standings?

[EvanJ]

Yes.

There were 31 people. If there aren't ties, first will get $186, second will get $93, and third will get $31. I just counted how many people picked each team. 17 picked Gonzaga, 6 picked Illinois and are wrong, 4 picked Baylor, 2 picked Texas and are wrong, 1 picked Michigan, and 1 picked Ohio State and is wrong.

[EvanJ]

Brian got 23 in the First Round and 2 (1 game) in the first half of the Second Round. Mathew got 21 in the First Round and 4 (2 games) in the first half of the Second Round.
25 points is a four-way tie from 23rd through 26th of 31. Brian, Mathew, and Dad are tied, and none of you have an unusual pick later on that could be right that would make you move way up. First has 32, second has 31, third has 30, and I'm tied for fourth with 29. The leader probably won't win because she picked Ohio State to win and Oklahoma State to reach the Final Four. The person in second picked Oklahoma State to finish second. The person in third picked West Virginia to win three games, and I'll pass her if Houston beats Syracuse. If Gonzaga beats Baylor in the Final, and Houston wins the Midwest, I'll get first for the first time in my life.

We will send standings tomorrow. The Tournament has four days off with the Round of 16 starting on Saturday. Normally the Round of 16 is Thursday and Friday night. By doing it this way, they can make all games from the Round of 16 on be played one at a time without having weekday day games. The start times on Saturday will be 2:40, 5:15, 7:25, and 9:55. The first two will be on CBS and the last two will be on TBS. The most likely time to have overlap is if the second game doesn't end by 7:25, but since they are on different channels it won't require the channels to change their plans. Bankers Life Fieldhouse will host the first and third games, and Hinkle Fieldhouse will host the second and fourth games, so a game lasting over two hours won't delay the next game at that site. I expect the start times on Sunday to be the same as Saturday.

ESPN has the brackets of special people. Jay Bilas is in the 97th percentile. Joe Lunardi was about as good, but fell to the 78th percentile because he picked Rutgers to beat Houston. Rece Davis is in the 64th percentile. Pardon The Interruption co-host Michael Wilbon is in the 6th percentile with three of his Final Four out.

[EvanJ]

Brian and Mathew should have gotten the standings e-mailed. The leader has her champion, second, and one other Final Four team eliminated. My potential is great because the only games I can't get right are three in the Regional Semifinals and none in the last three rounds. Dad didn't do the potential for each person, so I did it. The leader has 42 but can only get 18 more. The person in second-to-last has 31 and can get 71 more. She and I are the only people out of 31 who have all of our Final Four left, and she and I are tied for the highest potential with 114. Potential is the sum of points earned and possible remaining points. She is the only one who can get seven Regional Semifinals right, and the only team she picked to win at least three games that is out is 7 seed Clemson. She picked 3 seed Arkansas, 6 seed USC, and 8 seed Loyola Chicago in the Sweet Sixteen. ESPN gives what percent of people picked each team in each round. Multiplying the three probabilities means that 1 in 1,426 people picked all three of them in Sweet Sixteen, but it could be significantly different for two reasons. One reason is that the probabilities are percents with one decimal place, so when multiplying them it's not enough precision to say 1 in 1,426. Another reason is if some people are more likely to pick worse seeds than others. Arkansas, USC, and Loyola Chicago were independent events in the sense that knowing how one of them did doesn't tell you anything about the other two, but people who picked Loyola Chicago to reach the Sweet Sixteen could be more likely to pick Arkansas and USC to do that.

I'm tied for 12th through 15th with 37. Dad, Brian, and Mathew are tied for 18th through 21st with 35. Brian's potential of 93 is tied for 14th and 15th. Mathew's potential of 87 is tied for 18th and 19th, so both are towards the middle. Dad, Brian, and Mathew cannot win money. I will stay ahead of Dad because all three games we disagree about he can't get right.

[Hofstra]

Wait till next year they say.

Thanks for running the pool.

[EvanJ]

Your welcome. I don't know what year Dad started, but I've been doing it since the 1990s. Gonzaga, Illinois, Baylor, Texas, Michigan, and Ohio State were the six teams that at least one person picked as champion. Kansas, Iowa, Oklahoma State, Alabama, and Loyola Chicago were the five teams whose best pick was second. Here's who I'm rooting for in the Sweet Sixteen:

Gonzaga (1) over Creighton (5)
Oregon (7) over USC (6)
Michigan (1) over Florida State (4) although I like Florida State and I can finish first if Florida State wins this game and other games go right
UCLA (11) over Alabama (2) even though I picked Alabama because I don't want Alabama to win two more games, and nobody has UCLA
Baylor (1) over Villanova (5)
Oral Roberts (15) over Arkansas (3)
Oregon State (12) over Loyola Chicago (8)
Houston (2) over Syracuse (11)

[EvanJ]

Houston's win raised me from 87.6th to 95.8th percentile on ESPN. I checked ESPN's Fans of Hofstra group, and if I get every game right, I will win it. It has 195 brackets.

[EvanJ]

UCLA had a chance to win in regulation but committed an offensive foul with 1.1 seconds left. It was the first National Semifinal to go overtime since 1998, which was before we won the America East. In overtime, Gonzaga went up 5, but UCLA came back. They missed, got an offensive rebound, and tied it at 90 with 3.3 seconds left. Gonzaga did not call their timeout. Jalen Suggs was guarded, shot a long three, and it banked in to win 93-90. He scored 16, and two teammates and three UCLA players scored more, but Suggs is the hero. UCLA's Johnny Juzang led all scorers with 29 and shot 12-18. Drew Timme led Gonzaga with 25 and shot 11-15. Gonzaga's Joel Ayayi scored 22 and shot 9-12. The three highest scorers combined to shoot field goals 32-45 (.711). The benches combined to attempted 3 field goals and score 10 of 183 points. A math note is that the teams combined to have at least one player with every amount of assists from 1 to 8. In the first Semifinal, Baylor led 45-20 at halftime and beat Houston 78-59. I picked Gonzaga to beat Baylor in the Final, but I wanted Baylor to lose because it would have made me clinch money before the Final. My bracket is 98.8th percentile on ESPN. If Gonzaga wins, I win Dad's pool for the first time in my life and get $186. If Baylor wins, I don't get money. After watching the Final on Monday night, I have to wake up early Tuesday to get my second coronavirus vaccine.

[Hofstra]

I know you're not a gambling man, but if you bet Baylor on the moneyline, you can guarantee yourself a win. I guess that isnt even gambling.

Congrats on the win!

[HofstraPride1]

More importantly, glad you'll be getting second vaccine shot Tuesday. Hopefully will see you at some Hofstra soccer matches this fall.

[EvanJ]

I got fifth and did not win money because Baylor won. I was 92.4th percentile on ESPN, so I would have won money if that was my percentile in Dad's pool. That raised my eight tournament mean ESPN percentile to 76.8 with a range from 53.8 to 96.5.

Maybe sometime I will give the details, but I'm moving, and I may never go to Hofstra again.

After being vaccinated, I could fall asleep Tuesday night, and I had a bad Wednesday. Now I'm okay from that, but I have a problem with the left big toe.

[HofstraPride1]

I got fifth and did not win money because Baylor won. I was 92.4th percentile on ESPN, so I would have won money if that was my percentile in Dad's pool. That raised my eight tournament mean ESPN percentile to 76.8 with a range from 53.8 to 96.5.

Maybe sometime I will give the details, but I'm moving, and I may never go to Hofstra again.

After being vaccinated, I could fall asleep Tuesday night, and I had a bad Wednesday. Now I'm okay from that, but I have a problem with the left big toe.

Sorry to hear you are moving. Where to? Either way hopefully can still visit area to attend games in future.

[EvanJ]

I may explain in the Off Topic forum at some point. The reason I'm not counting on coming back is that I refuse to fly for the rest of my life. I don't go to any team regularly. I saw Men's Soccer and Women's Soccer win one CAA Semifinal each and Women's Soccer draw hosting UNCW in 2019.

[HofstraPride1]

I may explain in the Off Topic forum at some point. The reason I'm not counting on coming back is that I refuse to fly for the rest of my life. I don't go to any team regularly. I saw Men's Soccer and Women's Soccer win one CAA Semifinal each and Women's Soccer draw hosting UNCW in 2019.

Sorry to hear you are scared to fly now and I hope you can get over that fear since otherwise it really limits what you can do.


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[Hofstra]

I may explain in the Off Topic forum at some point. The reason I'm not counting on coming back is that I refuse to fly for the rest of my life. I don't go to any team regularly. I saw Men's Soccer and Women's Soccer win one CAA Semifinal each and Women's Soccer draw hosting UNCW in 2019.

Damn Evan. Sorry to hear you had after effects from the shot. I had a bad reaction to my shot number 2 from the Moderna vaccine. No lasting though thankfully.

Where are you moving? If East coast maybe you can drive to a game.

[EvanJ]

If people need COVID vaccines once a year and I get that reaction every time, it won't be fun, but it won't be a catastrophe. During the pandemic, the millionaires got richer, but it would be hard to find people in the middle or lower class who benefitted as much from the pandemic as my parents and I. I vomit when planes land, and I don't like to travel. I went to Canada in 2005, and I'm fine if I don't leave the country again for the rest of my life.

I've been procrastinating on explaining why, but I'm moving to Omaha. We got a house that's almost double the size of where I'm now. Next season I could see Omaha host Oral Roberts with players who made the Sweet Sixteen. They play in the Summit League. There are two Division I schools in Omaha. Creighton is in the Big East, so St. John's goes there. I don't like crowds, and I don't plan on going to any games at Creighton or Nebraska.

[Hofstra]

Well, sad to see you go, but happy you and your family is doing well. All the best, and please continue to post on the boards. You're an asset over here, and we need you.

Tell my buddy Warren I said hello.

[HofstraPride1]

If people need COVID vaccines once a year and I get that reaction every time, it won't be fun, but it won't be a catastrophe. During the pandemic, the millionaires got richer, but it would be hard to find people in the middle or lower class who benefitted as much from the pandemic as my parents and I. I vomit when planes land, and I don't like to travel. I went to Canada in 2005, and I'm fine if I don't leave the country again for the rest of my life.

I've been procrastinating on explaining why, but I'm moving to Omaha. We got a house that's almost double the size of where I'm now. Next season I could see Omaha host Oral Roberts with players who made the Sweet Sixteen. They play in the Summit League. There are two Division I schools in Omaha. Creighton is in the Big East, so St. John's goes there. I don't like crowds, and I don't plan on going to any games at Creighton or Nebraska.

Sorry to see you leave the area but I hope you will still follow Hofstra sports from afar


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[daHUPride]

If people need COVID vaccines once a year and I get that reaction every time, it won't be fun, but it won't be a catastrophe. During the pandemic, the millionaires got richer, but it would be hard to find people in the middle or lower class who benefitted as much from the pandemic as my parents and I. I vomit when planes land, and I don't like to travel. I went to Canada in 2005, and I'm fine if I don't leave the country again for the rest of my life.

I've been procrastinating on explaining why, but I'm moving to Omaha. We got a house that's almost double the size of where I'm now. Next season I could see Omaha host Oral Roberts with players who made the Sweet Sixteen. They play in the Summit League. There are two Division I schools in Omaha. Creighton is in the Big East, so St. John's goes there. I don't like crowds, and I don't plan on going to any games at Creighton or Nebraska.

Sorry to see you leave the area but I hope you will still follow Hofstra sports from afar


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Good Luck EvanJ - stay healthy and safe - best to you.

[triplec2195]

Keep the numbers coming Evan you're the man and best of luck of course.