CAA Hoops Catch-All Thread

[HUSID80]

Don't forget that the REGULAR season champ gets an AUTOMATIC NIT berth if it loses in the CAA Tournament

[Flying Dutchmen]

Guys here is my take. In the past the CAA was always top heavy with the top 2 or 3 teams with RPIs near the 30 to 40 mark. This year other than W&M our RPis are in the 70s and 80s but we have about 5 toal teams. While we are not top heavy this year we are better top to bottom. The bottom of our league is much better than in years past that is why the conference is ranked so high. What this translates to is one NCAA bid but possibly 2 or 3 NIT bids.

You're probably right, but as the top separates itself from the bottom of the league, there is an opportunity, especially for us and W&M to have rather high RPI's that put us in at-large territory.

If we go 21-8 in the regular season (not counting Molloy game), we have a projected RPI of 46. And that's not including the conference tournament, where we could pick up another top 100 RPI win if we make the finals.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Hofstra.html

If St. Bonnies and Florida St. keep trending the way they are, we could have a solid resume for Selection Sunday.

[ProudofPride]

Depending on how the rest of the season plays out, we'll probably have a better resume than William and Mary, despite them having a higher RPI. NC State is even more on the bubble than both Florida State and St. Bonaventure are, both of those at the moment are much better wins. Plus our clobbering of W&M is a top 50 win for us. W&M doesn't really have any great wins at the moment, and they also have a couple of bad losses, which we don't. Our worst loss is to Indiana State, and they're actually not that bad now.

[Cards]

Guys here is my take. In the past the CAA was always top heavy with the top 2 or 3 teams with RPIs near the 30 to 40 mark. This year other than W&M our RPis are in the 70s and 80s but we have about 5 toal teams. While we are not top heavy this year we are better top to bottom. The bottom of our league is much better than in years past that is why the conference is ranked so high. What this translates to is one NCAA bid but possibly 2 or 3 NIT bids.

You're probably right, but as the top separates itself from the bottom of the league, there is an opportunity, especially for us and W&M to have rather high RPI's that put us in at-large territory.

If we go 21-8 in the regular season (not counting Molloy game), we have a projected RPI of 46. And that's not including the conference tournament, where we could pick up another top 100 RPI win if we make the finals.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Hofstra.html

If St. Bonnies and Florida St. keep trending the way they are, we could have a solid resume for Selection Sunday.

Very cool stuff FLyDutch. having a scientific/analytical background, I love looking at predictive simulations, forecasts, and stats.

[HofstraMathew]

Depending on how the rest of the season plays out, we'll probably have a better resume than William and Mary, despite them having a higher RPI. NC State is even more on the bubble than both Florida State and St. Bonaventure are, both of those at the moment are much better wins. Plus our clobbering of W&M is a top 50 win for us. W&M doesn't really have any great wins at the moment, and they also have a couple of bad losses, which we don't. Our worst loss is to Indiana State, and they're actually not that bad now.

The only problem is the selection committee tends to need a MId-Major to have both a good RPI and a strong resume to really even be considered. Back in 2006 we had a really strong RPI and a few strong in conference wins but had nothing OOC so we didn't make it. But if our RPI can get into the top 50 with those a couple of strong OOC and in conference we could actually be back on the bubble. Would be awesome for the CAA to see us and W&M on the bubble watch as the season comes to a close.

[RollPride15]

Our personal KenPom score probably doesn't have as high of a ceiling as our RPI, but I think it offers a more reasonable view of the CAA contenders at this point int time. KP sees four clustered CAA teams (JMU, W&M, Hofstra, UNCW) hovering from 75-85 at the moment. There's a good chance one of those teams could catch fire, and gain some ground over this year's P5 bubbles like UCLA and Georgetown if they can beat other teams in the top half of the conference.

Any fantasy of a CAA at-large bid, barring somebody running the table and then faltering late in the tournament, rests on no upset Power Conference champs and the hope that the committee likes a 24-9 CAA team over a 21-12 UCLA/Georgetown/LSU. Considering the committee's history of favoring mediocre blue bloods over stronger middle tier teams (UCLA making it over Temple last year) I wouldn't be optimistic. However, Stu is right that the NIT could feasibly have 3 CAA bids if everything broke right. Assume the three teams in that group of four that AREN'T CAA champs would still have top 90 KenPom scores and you have a decent chance of getting them in.

[Flying Dutchmen]

Depending on how the rest of the season plays out, we'll probably have a better resume than William and Mary, despite them having a higher RPI. NC State is even more on the bubble than both Florida State and St. Bonaventure are, both of those at the moment are much better wins. Plus our clobbering of W&M is a top 50 win for us. W&M doesn't really have any great wins at the moment, and they also have a couple of bad losses, which we don't. Our worst loss is to Indiana State, and they're actually not that bad now.

The only problem is the selection committee tends to need a MId-Major to have both a good RPI and a strong resume to really even be considered. Back in 2006 we had a really strong RPI and a few strong in conference wins but had nothing OOC so we didn't make it. But if our RPI can get into the top 50 with those a couple of strong OOC and in conference we could actually be back on the bubble. Would be awesome for the CAA to see us and W&M on the bubble watch as the season comes to a close.

I agree. If we keep winning, our resume compares favorably to the '12 Iona team, who made the NCAAT as a 14 seed at-large. But we will likely have to be the regular season champs to garner any kind of support for an at-large. It's a shame though, the CAA is excellent this year, I really think all ten teams could be dangerous on any given night, and I think the second-best CAA team is more deserving than the 9th ACC team this year. Not every year, but this year.

[Polito]

Regarding CUSA and ODU, lol, well I posted on the old Zone general board that the VA 3 were going to enter into a very different world, and that 2 of the 3 were in for a very rude awakening when they realize they're no longer in the good ol boys club of blatant favoritism - I felt that leaving the comfy bosom of Yeager who coddled all things VA was not going to turn out the way they thought

I thought VCU was in a better position to handle a move/upgrade due to much better recruiting and coaching pipelines that had been well established - the A10 would still be a tougher deal, but they were actually well positioned to make that move - and so far that's the case - the other 2 not so much

CUSA is such a weird league to me, very unexciting w/out Memphis - it's huge, tough to win but still not a national power type conf - but the move was for football, so I get it - their hoops team has been ok, but not the upper level dominance they enjoyed in the CAA where they were 1 of 3 near locks to win it every yr - I don't see the hoops benefit for them at all

GMU has been a complete disaster - maybe it was just me, but that was a wreck bound to happen with that move IMO.


As for CAA at-large, I think it may take another Cinderella run to help revitalize the national image of the league - it's time for someone else to make their mark and prove on the national stage the CAA is back and better than ever - I'm totally good with that team being HU

Also great point about league champion being a lock for NIT if they don't win the CAAT - plenty to fight for for all right now

[ProudofPride]

Frustrating loss for us tonight, but to put things into perspective, it could be way worse. Northeastern has now lost 5 in a row since losing to us in 3OT, they're now in 8th place and at this rate could be a lock for a play-in game in Baltimore. All 5 of those losses have been without Quincy Ford. Delaware has now lost a school record 14 straight games, and Drexel has 7 in a row.
We're still tied for 2nd with a good chunk of the conference season to go. We can easily make it back to the top if we somehow get through this tough stretch of games.

[Polito]

PoP, know what you're saying, but honestly I don't give a rats a$$ about any other team.

This was supposed to be HOFSTRA'S year, period. They were hyped up and picked to take it with the POY. What happened last night was ridiculous.

IMO, this was their title and NIT shot and they flat out blew it. And that was likely their destination as they don't have the killer instinct the shooting % or the depth to win this league in Baltimore. Sure there's more ball to be played, but we all know the reality that in all likelihood, this was their season. It was a MUST WIN.

Now, to me, they have nothing except another lesser than first finish. Beyond frustrated and disappointed. Don't even know how to describe it.

[ProudofPride]

Louisville announced yesterday a self-imposed post-season ban due to recruiting "violations" that occurred from 2010-14. This has 2 CAA connections. 1: Damion Lee. He transferred from Drexel to Louisville primarily because he wanted to play in an NCAA tournament, and now that isn't happening. 2: Kevin Keatts was the recruiting coordinator at Louisville from 2011-14. How much longer can UNCW stay silent on this issue? I personally can't see how a recruiting coordinator can be clueless as to what was going on, so I doubt he's completely innocent. Obviously it's not his doing, since it started before he was in that position, but it's not good that it continued as long as he was there. If they don't say something soon, I'm sure they'll have to when/if his name in mentioned once the NCAA investigation is released.

[Wags]

Tonight:
Hofstra over W&M
JMU rallied to edge Charleston on the road.
UNCW held off Elon at home.
Northeastern won a rock fight at Towson.
Delaware gets its first CAA win, at home over Drexel.

So with 5 games to go:

1. UNCW 11-2

2. JMU 9-4
3. Hofstra 9-4
4. W&M 9-4

5. Towson 8-5

6. Charleston 7-6

7. Elon 5-8
8. Northeastern 5-8

9. Delaware 1-12
10. Drexel 1-12

Obviously still a long way to go, but JMU/Hofstra has the potential to a great semifinal, 2/3 matchup. Towson could also get a pseudo home semifinal game against the top seed.

[Flying Dutchmen]

Big news out of JMU is that Curry has a knee injury, he will be missing tomorrow's game against UNCW. Long-term injury status unknown.

[Cards]

I know that a lot can happen in 4 games, but what happens if we beat UNCW and someone else happens to knock them off and we both finish 14-4 with us splitting the two game series???

[EvanJ]

I know that a lot can happen in 4 games, but what happens if we beat UNCW and someone else happens to knock them off and we both finish 14-4 with us splitting the two game series???

After head-to-head, the tiebreakers are record vs. the third place team, record vs. the fourth place team, and so on. If there is a tie for third, those teams are grouped together as far as the tiebreaker for first is concerned. If Hofstra wins out and finishes tied with UNCW at 14-4, Hofstra will win the regular season title if Towson (who beat UNCW once) has sole possession of third or if Towson and William & Mary are tied for third. What would be bad for Hofstra is if James Madison was in third.

[Cards]

Thanks EvanJ - Long way to go to win the title, especially since we will have to play lights out and also depend on someone else to help us out.

it is doable though!

[RollPride15]

UNCW is a 14 seed in Lunardi's latest bracketology, so it's good to see the CAA still gets no respect. They're 67th in KenPom, and here's some worse KenPom teams and their seeds:

Chattanooga--13 seed, 78th in KenPom
Temple (And I'm a big Temple fan)--11 seed, 89th in KenPom. What the hell??
San Diego State--12 seed, 69th KenPom
South Dakota State--13 seed, 72nd in KenPom

Fellow 14 seeds have KenPoms of 83, 51 and 68 (Hawaii at 51 is getting screwed here even more than UNCW)

I know KenPom isn't the be-all end-all blah blah blah but this is still weird to me. Temple as an 11 seed right now is a sin. UNCW had a weak out of conference but has won 10 in a row in a league that has proven to be deep and treacherous.

[EvanJ]

UNCW had a weak out of conference but has won 10 in a row in a league that has proven to be deep and treacherous.

They won a team record 11 in a row before losing last night.

If Hofstra wins out, here are their chances at a regular season title based on tiebreakers. Here are teams and their CAA records:

William & Mary (10-5): Drexel, at Elon, and at James Madison
Towson (9-6): Elon, James Madison, and at UNC Wilmington
James Madison (9-6): Delaware, at Towson, and William & Mary

With games against Towson and William & Mary, James Madison controls their own destiny to get a tie for third or better. If James Madison and William & Mary tie for third, UNC Wilmington (3-1 vs. those two) would have tiebreaker over Hofstra (2-2 vs. those two). What would be complicated is if Hofstra and UNC Wilmington tie for first and William & Mary, Towson, and James Madison are in a three-way tie for third. In that case Hofstra would be 4-2 against the teams tied for third and UNC Wilmington would be 4-2 or 3-3 depending on their second game against Towson. If Hofstra and UNC Wilmington were each 4-2 against the teams tied for third, it would go to records vs. the sixth place team. College of Charleston is in sixth, but has a hard last three games. Northeastern controls their own destiny to get a tie for sixth or better because they host College of Charleston. UNC Wilmington went 1-1 vs. Northeastern, so if Hofstra wins out and the tiebreaker is decided by record vs. Northeastern, Hofstra wins the tiebreaker. If Hofstra and UNC Wilmington win both of their remaining games not against each other, they would each be 3-1 vs. Northeastern and College of Charleston combined. Therefore if:

UNC Wilmington and Hofstra tie for first
William & Mary, James Madison, and Towson tie for third
Northeastern and College of Charleston tie for sixth

Then the tiebreakers of record vs. the third place team, fourth place team, and so on wouldn't break the tie and the regular season champion would have to be decided another way, possibly by the RPI. UNC Wilmington is ten spots ahead of Hofstra in the RPI, but if Hofstra wins out including a win at UNC Wilmington, Hofstra could finish with the better RPI.