CAA Hoops Catch-All Thread

[Flying Dutchmen]

CAA play is really heating up, the JMU v. W&M game tonight was a battle, W&M overcame an 18 point first half deficit to take a 6 point win.

The CAA is legit, five teams in the top 100 RPI, W&M currently at 38, we're at 71. A winning streak by either team could start the hype for an at-large bid this year. The computers love us (CAA is #9 in Conference RPI and Pomeroy), and I think we have an outside chance for an at-large bid if we can win the regular season title.

Figure it's time to start a catch-all thread as we make a push towards March Madness!

[daHUPride]

After W&M victory over JMU last night KenPom ranks:

JMU (78)
Hofstra (81) - right between A10 - RI (80) and GW (82)
W&M (83)
UNCW (85)

talk about parity - this league is tougher then I thought before the season started

[Polito]

These next 3 games are the regular season IMO for HU

[HofstraMathew]

These next 3 games are the regular season IMO for HU

Exactly; Need this win vs UNCW at home and then a split on the road would put us in control for the #1 seed (a complete sweep would just be awesome but I can't see that happening). Even losing both on the road still leaves us a path for the #1 seed but it probably involves winning at UNCW.

[stuball888]

While the league as a whole is the best its been (top to bottom) we do not have any eye popping RPIs. While we have the 70 to 88 range with our top four teams, that will translate to probably one in the NCAAs and 1 with an outside chance of two in the NITs.

[ProudofPride]

How is William and Mary's RPI so high at 36? The KenPom ranking makes much more sense for them. While they did beat NC State (RPI of 91, significantly worse than W&M's and that's their best win in terms of name), they also lost to Howard of the MEAC (currently RPI of 285), Towson (178), and the blowout against us, although RPI doesn't factor in margin of loss. As EvanJ pointed out in another thread, we don't have a loss to a sub-150 RPI team so far this season, yet the Tribe has a few and has a better RPI.

[ProudofPride]

We replaced JMU in Lunardi's latest bracketology.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[RollPride15]

But fell to 14...seems like a low seed for the supposed CAA winner this year. An at-large is pretty much out of the question. But I think whoever wins the CAA deserves at least a 13 but possibly a 12 if it breaks right.

[Flying Dutchmen]

But fell to 14...seems like a low seed for the supposed CAA winner this year. An at-large is pretty much out of the question. But I think whoever wins the CAA deserves at least a 13 but possibly a 12 if it breaks right.

I agree, and I think the CAA winner will get a 12 or better, but... it would be so nice to play at Barclays if we got in the NCAAT.

How is William and Mary's RPI so high at 36? The KenPom ranking makes much more sense for them. While they did beat NC State (RPI of 91, significantly worse than W&M's and that's their best win in terms of name), they also lost to Howard of the MEAC (currently RPI of 285), Towson (178), and the blowout against us, although RPI doesn't factor in margin of loss. As EvanJ pointed out in another thread, we don't have a loss to a sub-150 RPI team so far this season, yet the Tribe has a few and has a better RPI.

I think W&M is so high because they lost to some highly ranked teams, and that boosted their overall OOC SOS. I think W&M's RPI will level out just based on the fact we're gonna beat them down in Williamsburg

[EvanJ]

But fell to 14...seems like a low seed for the supposed CAA winner this year. An at-large is pretty much out of the question. But I think whoever wins the CAA deserves at least a 13 but possibly a 12 if it breaks right.

I agree, and I think the CAA winner will get a 12 or better, but... it would be so nice to play at Barclays if we got in the NCAAT.

How is William and Mary's RPI so high at 36? The KenPom ranking makes much more sense for them. While they did beat NC State (RPI of 91, significantly worse than W&M's and that's their best win in terms of name), they also lost to Howard of the MEAC (currently RPI of 285), Towson (178), and the blowout against us, although RPI doesn't factor in margin of loss. As EvanJ pointed out in another thread, we don't have a loss to a sub-150 RPI team so far this season, yet the Tribe has a few and has a better RPI.

I think W&M is so high because they lost to some highly ranked teams, and that boosted their overall OOC SOS. I think W&M's RPI will level out just based on the fact we're gonna beat them down in Williamsburg

William & Mary's SOS is 74th (second in the CAA behind Drexel) and Hofstra's is 127th. I'm disappointed Joe Lunardi didn't have William & Mary in his bracket or last eight out. William & Mary's problem is that a mid-major with 6 losses who is only tied for third in their conference standings won't get an at-large bid regardless of their SOS. William & Mary has a better RPI than Indiana, who Lunardi gave a 6 seed. It would be interesting if somebody made a modified RPI with an aribtrary bonus for teams in the top conferences to reflect what the Selection Committee will do.

[Polito]

HU, or ANY CAA team for that matter, at a 14 this year is absolutely ridiculous - this is the 10th ranked conf in the NATION, several teams have P5 wins on their resume, minimum 13 but a 12 is warranted - this league needs respect again post VA 3, it IS a good strong league again

whoever makes it absolutely MUST pull an upset or a few to gain some renewed credibility again for this conf

[ProudofPride]

Collegeinsider, the group that does the Mid-Major top 25 has a little video about just how good the CAA is this year, and discusses the game against UNCW on Thursday.
http://collegeinsider.com/brian-doyle/c ... ut-the-caa

[Flying Dutchmen]

First ESPN Bubble Watch posted, no sign of the CAA yet.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketb ... h/_/id/181

[EvanJ]

HU, or ANY CAA team for that matter, at a 14 this year is absolutely ridiculous - this is the 10th ranked conf in the NATION, several teams have P5 wins on their resume, minimum 13 but a 12 is warranted - this league needs respect again post VA 3, it IS a good strong league again

The CAA is 9th in the Conference RPI, not 10th, but teams get seeded, not conferences. In order for Hofstra to get a 13 seed based on the RPI, Hofstra would need a better RPI than the conference standings leader in 14 conferences (4 14s + 4 15s + 6 16s including the Final Four). Hofstra has a better RPI than the conference standings leader in 13 conferences. William & Mary is underrated by a lot (they have a significantly better RPI than Hofstra), but a 14 seed is what Hofstra deserves as of now.

[joeg1]

Anyone notice how low Con USA has fallen...new home of ODU?

[EvanJ]

Anyone notice how low Con USA has fallen...new home of ODU?

I noticed. Conference USA no longer has Memphis, although they're only 125th in the RPI anyway.

Here's William & Mary's problem. If you asked 100 NCAA Basketball fans who hadn't looked at the RPI, I think all 100 would say that a team tied for first in the Big Ten standings (Indiana is 49th) would have a better RPI than a team tied for third in the CAA standings (William & Mary is 39th), and 100 out of 100 people would be wrong. Considering they have never been in the NCAA Tournament, I would feel sorry for them if they missed the NCAA Tournament with an RPI in the Top 40. On another note, here are the biggest margins of defeat for teams currently in the Top 50 of the RPI:

Washington lost by 32 to Arizona (Arizona has a better RPI than Washington)
Xavier lost by 31 to Villanova (Villanova has a better RPI than Xavier)
Dayton lost by 29 to Xavier (Xavier has a better RPI than Dayton)
William & Mary lost by 28 to Hofstra
Baylor lost by 28 to Kansas (Kansas has a better RPI than Baylor)

Therefore Hofstra has the biggest margin of victory by a team not in the Top 50 in the RPI over a team in the Top 50 of the RPI and the biggest margin of victory by a team not in one of the top six conferences over a team in the Top 50 of the RPI.

[Dooku25]

HU, or ANY CAA team for that matter, at a 14 this year is absolutely ridiculous - this is the 10th ranked conf in the NATION, several teams have P5 wins on their resume, minimum 13 but a 12 is warranted - this league needs respect again post VA 3, it IS a good strong league again

whoever makes it absolutely MUST pull an upset or a few to gain some renewed credibility again for this conf

My initial thought on this is that I totally agree. But in looking at the bracket, we should compare who is on the 12 and 13 line and see if any of those schools are less deserving. The only school out of the 8 that we should be ahead of is Yale who got a 13 seed in the latest bracket. Their RPI is 84 and they are 0-3 against the top 50 while we have 2 top 40 wins and have an RPI of 68 so we could make the argument that we should be a 13 and Yale a 14. The other 13's are Chattanooga and S. Dakota St who have RPI's in the 40's and Stony Brook who has a better RPI and beat us head to head. I don't see us being more deserving that any of the 12's either (Ark-Little Rock, San Diego St, Monmouth, and UCLA/Syracuse). So right now I think a 14 is about right. That could all change by March, there's alot of basketball left. But I sure would love a tournament game for Hofstra in Brooklyn. I think we would have more than 1,200 Hofstra fans at the Barclays for that one

[HofstraMathew]

HU, or ANY CAA team for that matter, at a 14 this year is absolutely ridiculous - this is the 10th ranked conf in the NATION, several teams have P5 wins on their resume, minimum 13 but a 12 is warranted - this league needs respect again post VA 3, it IS a good strong league again

whoever makes it absolutely MUST pull an upset or a few to gain some renewed credibility again for this conf

My initial thought on this is that I totally agree. But in looking at the bracket, we should compare who is on the 12 and 13 line and see if any of those schools are less deserving. The only school out of the 8 that we should be ahead of is Yale who got a 13 seed in the latest bracket. Their RPI is 84 and they are 0-3 against the top 50 while we have 2 top 40 wins and have an RPI of 68 so we could make the argument that we should be a 13 and Yale a 14. The other 13's are Chattanooga and S. Dakota St who have RPI's in the 40's and Stony Brook who has a better RPI and beat us head to head. I don't see us being more deserving that any of the 12's either (Ark-Little Rock, San Diego St, Monmouth, and UCLA/Syracuse). So right now I think a 14 is about right. That could all change by March, there's alot of basketball left. But I sure would love a tournament game for Hofstra in Brooklyn. I think we would have more than 1,200 Hofstra fans at the Barclays for that one

To add that they can shift you a seed line if it makes sense logistically which could be what Lunardi did here to put us in Brooklyn.

[stuball888]

Guys here is my take. In the past the CAA was always top heavy with the top 2 or 3 teams with RPIs near the 30 to 40 mark. This year other than W&M our RPis are in the 70s and 80s but we have about 5 toal teams. While we are not top heavy this year we are better top to bottom. The bottom of our league is much better than in years past that is why the conference is ranked so high. What this translates to is one NCAA bid but possibly 2 or 3 NIT bids.

[EvanJ]

Guys here is my take. In the past the CAA was always top heavy with the top 2 or 3 teams with RPIs near the 30 to 40 mark. This year other than W&M our RPis are in the 70s and 80s but we have about 5 toal teams. While we are not top heavy this year we are better top to bottom. The bottom of our league is much better than in years past that is why the conference is ranked so high. What this translates to is one NCAA bid but possibly 2 or 3 NIT bids.

You're right about the distribution, but most of the time the CAA didn't have a team in the Top 40 of the RPI. Using the tiebreaker of wins against the teams tied for third, Hofstra leads the CAA standings. Hofstra hasn't played UNC Wilmington, and UNC Wilmington lost at Towson. Therefore if you give the automatic bid to Hofstra, William & Mary would make the NIT, but the third best RPI in the CAA is College of Charleston in 92nd. Therefore I wouldn't be surprised if the CAA got 1 team each in the NCAA and NIT and several teams in the CIT and CBI. If the regular season and/or CAA Tournament are won by a team other than William & Mary and Hofstra, it would be a lock for at least the NIT (for the regular season champion) and the NCAA (for the CAA Tournament champion). I think William & Mary would really have to collapse to do worse than the NIT. Hofstra still has five Top 100 CAA opponents before the CAA Tournament including trips to James Madison, William & Mary, and UNC Wilmington. If Hofstra goes 5-3 to finish 13-5 in the CAA and loses in the CAA Quarterfinals, they will be 20-10 on Selection Sunday. That might get them in the NIT, but it's not a lock. The only team I would say is a lock for at least the NIT is William & Mary.