MBB Game 19 at Northeastern: January 22 at 12:00 P.M.

EvanJ · Post by **EvanJ** » Tue Jan 18, 2022 11:57 am

Northeastern plays Saturday games at 12:00 P.M. to convert Matthews Arena for night hockey games. Chris Doherty, who averages 10.8 points and 9.4 rebounds, did not play yesterday. Northeastern has eight players averaging at least 5 points, but only two have played every game, and four have missed at least five games. Shaquille Walters leads them with 13.3 points, but he hasn't played in 75 percent of the games to qualify. Among qualified players, Jahmyl Telfort leads them with 13.2 points. Tyreek Scott-Grayson averages 12.3, but he's played in only six games, and did not play yesterday. Nikola Djogo averages 12.2. Scott-Grayson doesn't have a chance to play in 75 percent, but Walters, Telfort, and Djogo could have a close battle for team lead once Walters qualifies, which he will do after January 27 if he keeps playing. Walters is a point guard who shoots field goals well, but shoots free throws .660, and has more turnovers than assists. Telfort shoots free throws .610. Doherty shoots them .824, which is very good for a forward. They get only 1.9 shots per game blocked. After hosting us, Northeastern plays consecutive games against UNCW.

https://static.caasports.com/custompage ... M#team.ind has their statistics. They average 65.8 points and shoot below average.

Anybody who pays for Flo can watch the CAA for six consecutive hours from our game until Charleston at James Madison starts at 4:00 P.M. so ends about 6:00 P.M.

Wags · Post by **Wags** » Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:51 pm

Plenty of reasons Hofstra better be ready for this one and better not consider Northeastern's record when they make this trip.

The obvious one is that HU's inconsistency this season shouldn't allow them to look past anyone. But also:

- Early noon start on the road is a difficult spot.
- Matthews Arena has often been a very tough venue for HU even when playing well (see the 16-game winning streak ending there three years ago).
- Northeastern has talent (picked second, despite their surprisingly bad record).
- Half of Northeastern's six CAA losses have been close (by 1 and by 3 on the road, and in OT at home against a good Delaware team).
- Cooks will be back: great on the surface, but the trickle-down that brings with changing roles again after two straight wins could also be a challenge.
- The biggest one: after starting 0-6 in the conference, Northeastern is long overdue for a win. But TCB and let that happen against the next opponent NU plays.

triplec2195 · Post by **triplec2195** » Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:32 pm

Wags wrote:Plenty of reasons Hofstra better be ready for this one and better not consider Northeastern's record when they make this trip.

The obvious one is that HU's inconsistency this season shouldn't allow them to look past anyone. But also:

- Early noon start on the road is a difficult spot.
- Matthews Arena has often been a very tough venue for HU even when playing well (see the 16-game winning streak ending there three years ago).
- Northeastern has talent (picked second, despite their surprisingly bad record).
- Half of Northeastern's six CAA losses have been close (by 1 and by 3 on the road, and in OT at home against a good Delaware team).
- Cooks will be back: great on the surface, but the trickle-down that brings with changing roles again after two straight wins could also be a challenge.
- The biggest one: after starting 0-6 in the conference, Northeastern is long overdue for a win. But TCB and let that happen against the next opponent NU plays.

I don't think there will be any gimmes in any of these conference games . NE only scores 66 points a game so on the face of it if they score their average this should be a win for us but like the Drexel game it may be they will try to shut us down from beyond the perimeter and it will be a mid range game for us. This plays into Estrada's forte and Ray seems to be developing his mid range. Hopefully Cooks is healthy and plays well but again will the chemistry be there. It would be nice to beat the top three teams picked pre-season to win the conference.

Wags · Post by **Wags** » Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:42 pm

triplec2195 wrote: It would be nice to beat the top three teams picked pre-season to win the conference.

Yeah, especially if you go back to the Towson loss and figure at that point, they're 1-2 in the league and, despite NU's struggles, had the top three preseason picks coming up in a row - to come out of that 4-2 at the one-third mark of the CAA schedule would be great, especially with two more road games after NU before coming home again.

HUSID74 · Post by **HUSID74** » Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:06 am

This will be a tough game especially on the road. Northeastern is a wounded animal fighting for its life...Our history thus far this year has been to win some real good games followed by a clunker...now is the time to change that narrative.

Nice to have Cooks back as it lengthens our rotation. What's up with Cramer? Hope he's back as he's another energy guy we can use.

Captain · Post by **Captain** » Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:53 am

I expect Northeastern to be a force by the end of the season.
I don't know when Joe Pridgen is expected back but he is a player who will make a difference for them.
I think we have more horses than they but as Speedy has lamented on more than one occasion, you better respect your opponents.
This is a good barometer check for a HU team that might be finding it's Mojo.
Let's hope they show up in a locked down Matthews arena and put the hammer down.

Post by **Jojogunne** » Thu Jan 20, 2022 7:57 pm

Hofstra's preview:

https://gohofstra.com/news/2022/1/20/me ... stern.aspx

No spectators. How 2020.

triplec2195 · Post by **triplec2195** » Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:11 am

Captain wrote:I expect Northeastern to be a force by the end of the season.
I don't know when Joe Pridgen is expected back but he is a player who will make a difference for them.
I think we have more horses than they but as Speedy has lamented on more than one occasion, you better respect your opponents.
This is a good barometer check for a HU team that might be finding it's Mojo.
Let's hope they show up in a locked down Matthews arena and put the hammer down.

They have a coach who seems to be able to put the right pieces of the puzzle together. The fact that they haven't won a CAA game is shocking let us not be the team that breaks that string.

EvanJ · Post by **EvanJ** » Fri Jan 21, 2022 12:02 pm

HUSID74 wrote: Nice to have Cooks back as it lengthens our rotation.

The Game Notes at https://s3.amazonaws.com/sidearm.sites/ ... game19.pdf don't have him in the Tentative Starting Lineup.

We have the unusual combination of barely being above Northeastern in offesnive rebounds to not be last in the CAA (8.11 for us and 8.006 for them) while having the Iyiola lead with 3.7 offensive rebounds. 42 percent of Iyiola's rebounds are offensive. Estrada, Cooks, Ray, and Silverio combined have under 10 percent of their rebounds be offensive. Iyiola moved up to second in rebounds because Drexel's James Butler hasn't played in 75 percent of games to qualify.

Ray is 1 three behind JWF for second in Hofstra history. Ray is 81 behind Agudio.

https://static.caasports.com/custompage ... M#team.ind has Northeastern's statistics. Two of their five double-digit scorers haven't played in 75 percent of games to qualify. Leading scorer Shaquille Walters is available and will qualify after three more games. Third leading scorer Tyreek Scott-Grayson has played in 6 of 17 games, so he won't get up to 75 percent. They used thirteen players, including ten who meet my standard of being a regular by averaging at least 10 minutes per team game. That includes Scott-Grayson, who hasn't played since December 31, and leading rebounder Chris Doherty, who missed the last game due to injury after playing in every game before that. Doherty has 150 rebounds, and Nikola Djogo is second on them with half that many, so they might struggle rebounding if Doherty is out a while.

Northeastern did not write a preview yet.

Edit: Northeastern doesn't write separate previews. They just put it in the Game Notes and https://s3.amazonaws.com/northeastern.i ... ofstra.pdf is it. Due to injuries, they had 13 lineups in 17 games. They labeled Delaware 107th in the NET when they meant us because they forgot to change that from their previous game. We lead the all-time series 26-25, which means we lead the all-time series by 1 against two of the four other teams that came from the America East. We are 48-47 against Drexel. I like teams providing situational statistics, and here are Northeastern's:

Points in the painnt: More 7 times, tied 1 time, fewer 9 times, -2.7 per game
Points off turnovers: More 3 times, tied 1 time, fewer 13 times, -6.3 per game
Second chance points: More 14 times, fewer 3 times, +2.9 per game
Fast break points: More 3 times, tied 3 times, fewer 11 times, -5.2 per game
Bench points: More 7 times, fewer 10 times, +1.5 per game (they had at least 24 bench points four times, which were all in their last nine games)

Captain wrote: I don't know when Joe Pridgen is expected back but he is a player who will make a difference for them.

The Game Notes say he's ineligible this season because he transferred.

Hofstra · Post by **Hofstra** » Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:48 pm

triplec2195 wrote:
Captain wrote:I expect Northeastern to be a force by the end of the season.
I don't know when Joe Pridgen is expected back but he is a player who will make a difference for them.
I think we have more horses than they but as Speedy has lamented on more than one occasion, you better respect your opponents.
This is a good barometer check for a HU team that might be finding it's Mojo.
Let's hope they show up in a locked down Matthews arena and put the hammer down.
They have a coach who seems to be able to put the right pieces of the puzzle together. The fact that they haven't won a CAA game is shocking let us not be the team that breaks that string.

We will most likely lose. William and Mary had no wins, they beat us. They have no conference wins, they will most likely beat us. Hope I am wrong.

Pride97 · Post by **Pride97** » Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:54 pm

Hofstra wrote: We will most likely lose. William and Mary had no wins, they beat us. They have no conference wins, they will most likely beat us. Hope I am wrong.

Not sure about that, but good chance someone will have a career high against us. Seems to happen quite a bit.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Post by **Jojogunne** » Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:09 pm

The big CAA game tomorrow is #1 UNCW @ #2 Towson.

joeg1 · Post by **joeg1** » Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:21 pm

We are somehow -2.5 faves. The bookies do a lot better with the P5 games- I think they're off on this one! I could never bet against the alma mater, but I think there's $ to be made here, were you so inclined.

joeg1 · Post by **joeg1** » Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:37 pm

Jojogunne wrote:The big CAA game tomorrow is #1 UNCW @ #2 Towson.

What do we root for? A first loss for UNCW or a loss for Towson, who already beat us?

triplec2195 · Post by **triplec2195** » Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:04 am

Jojogunne wrote:The big CAA game tomorrow is #1 UNCW @ #2 Towson.

I watched some of the replay UNCW against JMU a game where JMU had a double digit lead. JMU played like us in the last minute or two and lost by an incredible 3 point shot by Jaylen Sims with 2 seconds on the clock. The kid though that impressed me was Phillips a 6'2 guard beware of him when we meet. He seemed almost unstoppable.

triplec2195 · Post by **triplec2195** » Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:07 am

EvanJ wrote:
HUSID74 wrote: Nice to have Cooks back as it lengthens our rotation.
The Game Notes at https://s3.amazonaws.com/sidearm.sites/ ... game19.pdf don't have him in the Tentative Starting Lineup.

We have the unusual combination of barely being above Northeastern in offesnive rebounds to not be last in the CAA (8.11 for us and 8.006 for them) while having the Iyiola lead with 3.7 offensive rebounds. 42 percent of Iyiola's rebounds are offensive. Estrada, Cooks, Ray, and Silverio combined have under 10 percent of their rebounds be offensive. Iyiola moved up to second in rebounds because Drexel's James Butler hasn't played in 75 percent of games to qualify.

Ray is 1 three behind JWF for second in Hofstra history. Ray is 81 behind Agudio.

https://static.caasports.com/custompage ... M#team.ind has Northeastern's statistics. Two of their five double-digit scorers haven't played in 75 percent of games to qualify. Leading scorer Shaquille Walters is available and will qualify after three more games. Third leading scorer Tyreek Scott-Grayson has played in 6 of 17 games, so he won't get up to 75 percent. They used thirteen players, including ten who meet my standard of being a regular by averaging at least 10 minutes per team game. That includes Scott-Grayson, who hasn't played since December 31, and leading rebounder Chris Doherty, who missed the last game due to injury after playing in every game before that. Doherty has 150 rebounds, and Nikola Djogo is second on them with half that many, so they might struggle rebounding if Doherty is out a while.

Northeastern did not write a preview yet.

Edit: Northeastern doesn't write separate previews. They just put it in the Game Notes and https://s3.amazonaws.com/northeastern.i ... ofstra.pdf is it. Due to injuries, they had 13 lineups in 17 games. They labeled Delaware 107th in the NET when they meant us because they forgot to change that from their previous game. We lead the all-time series 26-25, which means we lead the all-time series by 1 against two of the four other teams that came from the America East. We are 48-47 against Drexel. I like teams providing situational statistics, and here are Northeastern's:

Points in the painnt: More 7 times, tied 1 time, fewer 9 times, -2.7 per game
Points off turnovers: More 3 times, tied 1 time, fewer 13 times, -6.3 per game
Second chance points: More 14 times, fewer 3 times, +2.9 per game
Fast break points: More 3 times, tied 3 times, fewer 11 times, -5.2 per game
Bench points: More 7 times, fewer 10 times, +1.5 per game (they had at least 24 bench points four times, which were all in their last nine games)

Captain wrote: I don't know when Joe Pridgen is expected back but he is a player who will make a difference for them.
The Game Notes say he's ineligible this season because he transferred.

I've commented before about Pridgen that he should have to sit out and someone here said he was eligible to play because of Covid? I think this decision is fair.

HUSID74 · Post by **HUSID74** » Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:57 am

joeg1 wrote:We are somehow -2.5 faves. The bookies do a lot better with the P5 games- I think they're off on this one! I could never bet against the alma mater, but I think there's $ to be made here, were you so inclined.

The bookies have pegged us pretty well with the exception of SBU and William & Mary...ESPN has us as 3 point favs and only gives us around a 53 per cent chance of winning...they must know something.

HofstraMathew · Post by **HofstraMathew** » Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:45 am

HUSID74 wrote:
joeg1 wrote:We are somehow -2.5 faves. The bookies do a lot better with the P5 games- I think they're off on this one! I could never bet against the alma mater, but I think there's $ to be made here, were you so inclined.
The bookies have pegged us pretty well with the exception of SBU and William & Mary...ESPN has us as 3 point favs and only gives us around a 53 per cent chance of winning...they must know something.

We are 10-6 against the spread this year. Losses against the spread are Iona, Richmond and Towson as underdogs and Stony Brook, W&M and Drexel as favorites. So if you bet Hofstra every game you would be up money this year.

Joeg - The other thing you need to remember is the points spread is not a prediction of the game; it is designed to have bets come in 50/50 on both sides of the spread. This way the casino is guaranteed a win no matter which side wins.

Also I am now seeing the line has moved to -4 in favor of Hofstra (Caesars/ESPN). The over/under is 141.5 so the best bet on this game with our defense might be to just bet the over and stay away from that spread.

EvanJ · Post by **EvanJ** » Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:10 pm

The overall Sagarin has us winning by 2.78. KenPom doesn't give home court advantage, but if you apply the 2.85 from the Sagarin, we should win by 5.98. I don't know why that doesn't match KenPom's prediction of 72-70. Furthermore, if home court advantage should be less without fans, we should win by more.

http://defiantlydutch.blogspot.com/2022 ... stern.html is Jerry Beach's "I'll Be Quirky: Hofstra at Northeastern." We lead the all-time series against Drexel for the first time since we beat them on January 12, 1991. Drexel won the next 8, and led the series by 12 after 2013-2014, but we are 15-2 vs. Drexel since then. The last two times we made 4 or fewer threes and won were January 17, 2022 and January 17, 2021. Estrada is our first player who attempts threes tto have consecutive games with at least 20 points without making a three since Stokes did it in three consecutive games from January 13 through 20, 2007, on his way to winning POY. Stokes attempted a low amount of threes for a guard. It says "Tyreek Scott-Grayson, who was averaging 12.3 points and 5.3 rebounds in six games, is expected to miss the rest of the season with an injury. " Since Northeastern joined the CAA, 19 of our 35 games against them were decided by 6 points or fewer or in overtime, and the 2019 and 2020 Finals were close until the margin expanded at the end. One of Northeastern's best games against us was an 89-73 win on January 21, 2006 when we had our best season ever by RPI, beat George Mason twice, and were snubbed. Jose Juan (who shortened his name to J.J.) Barea had 29 points and 10 assists in that game on his way to winning POY.

We had two common nonconference opponents with Northeastern. They beat Duquesne by more than we did, 16 to 10, and we beat Detroit Mercy by more than they did, 14 to 10. Due to injuries, Jahmyl Telfort and Jason Strong are their only players to play in every game.

https://static.caasports.com/custompage ... M#team.ind has Northeastern's statistics. If Chris Doherty remains injured and Scott-Grayson is out for the season, that leaves them with only two players who average over 3 rebounds. They shoot threes .324, so it's bad if we don't hold them below .400.

Edit: There is bad news. http://stats.statbroadcast.com/statmonitr/?id=371244 has statistics. It doesn't have the starters yet. It has an roster for each team that each have 11 players. Two of the three missing players from our 14 man roster haven't played all season, but the other one is Cramer. We probably have only two forwards for the rest of the season, and Iyiola is our only forward who could play in 75 percent of our games to qualify for statistics.

Edit: We have the same lineup without Cooks, and Chris Doherty is back for Northeastern.

EvanJ · Post by **EvanJ** » Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:57 pm

We lead 34-23 at halftime. Ray and Cooks came off the bench. Cooks is the only double-digit scorer on either team. He made his first five field goals including one three and a three-point play before missing his last shot, and he has 12. Estrada missed five shots in the first 8:17, including four threes, one of which was in and out. He made field goals 1:15 apart to get to 4 points, and shot 2-10. He had 3 rebounds, 2 assists, and no fouls or turnovers. Dubar scored 7. He shot 3-4 including making his only three. He had only 1 rebound, and was our only player with more than 1 foul. Silverio shot 2-5 including threes 1-3 to score 5, and he shockingly led all players with 5 rebounds. Ray, Iyiola, and Simmons scored 2. Ray shot 1-4, and Iyiola and Simmons shot 1-1. Iyiola had 3 rebounds. Simmons had 4 rebounds and our only block. Iyiola and Simmons split time evenly, with Iyiola for 10:12 and Simmons for 9:48. Dubar, Estrada, Simmons, and Carlos had 2 of our 9 assists. Cooks and Ray had 2 of our 5 steals. Chris Doherty led Northeastern with 6, but he shot 3-7, had only 3 rebounds (he averages 9.4), and committed 2 fouls. Both teams stuck at threes as we shot 3-13 (.231), and Northeastern shot 1-8 (.125). Northeastern's only three was by Shaquille Walters, who scored 5 and was the only player on either team to play the whole half. We had 3 more rebounds. We had 9 assists and 6 turnovers, and Northeastern had 4 assists and 8 turnovers.

Edit: Northeastern has not made a free throw, and their only attempt was when Doherty didn't finish a three-point play. Northeastern made two threes to go down 34-29.