CAA MBB Outlook 2025-26

[Wags]

I was right about the soccer at large, right? Ill stand by us being a 2 bid league. If we are the 10th best conference, there aren't that many teams outside the p5 playing a better schedule. If the caa has 2 or 3 dominant teams and one of them wins the conference, we will get 2

The second argument is a better one, if the CAA remains conference that's rated pretty well (although I still think it's ultimately a one-bid league). But getting a soccer at large - when Hofstra was actually ranked in the Top 25 in that sport - likely won't prove to be a good comparison to trying for an at-large in men's hoops.

[stuball888]

Wags what you have to realize in our 4 losses we lost by a total of 14 points in those games
They were all road games also
So to the board, I say
Did any of us predict that we would would be this good before the season began

[Wags]

Wags what you have to realize in our 4 losses we lost by a total of 14 points in those games
They were all road games also
So to the board, I say
Did any of us predict that we would would be this good before the season began

If you're going to get an at-large bid from a traditionally one-bid league, you have to WIN those games. The committee won't care if a team like that lost four close ones, especially when two of their eight wins (so far) are against non-DI competition.

[stuball888]

The SOS for our OOC not counting the non division one teams is solid
I think if we play like we are capable we should be top 2 or 3 in conference
We go 14-4 and go the the CAA final then at worst we are a bubble team

[dutchPride86]

We have a 0.000000000000000000001% chance of being a bubble team unless we go 18-0 in conference and lose on a half court shot in the title game (heaven forbid. Lol) Then maybe 1%. The team is still below .500 for the season against quad 1-3 opponents, with 2 quad 3 losses and 0 quad 1 wins. Our strength of schedule wont even stay in the top 100 once we hit conference play.

Every reason to be excited about what's to come, but lets be realistic about what the expectations for this team should be. Hell its a total toss up even if we even beat Quinnipiac on Sunday and we're talking about being on the bubble?!

Beating Syracuse and Pitt are terrific achievements that deserve to be celebrated, but neither of those even would qualify as "quality wins" if youre objectively looking at the resume of an at large team. That's how far those 2 programs have fallen

Being a real contender to win the CAA and being a bubble team are two entirely different conversations

[Mark19th]

Hofstra moves up to number 21 in latest mid-major poll.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[EvanJ]

Love the enthusiasm but cmon guys lets be serious here. The RPI we grew up with isnt even a real metric anymore, and CAA wouldn't have a prayer of being a 2 bid league even if it was. The NET, kenpom, bart torvik, and evanmiya are the ranking sites these days. CAA, while MUCH improved, is not a top 10 conference in any of them.

Kenpom is probably the most accurate. CAA doesnt have a single top 100 team there. Our 109 ranking is real solid, as is UNCW at 104, but thats not even in the conversation of being close to a conversation about being anywhere near contention for an at large bid. Lol

Now Ill give you 3 CAA teams in the top 100 of the NET, the NCAAs top metric, is highly unusual. But even there W&M somehow in the 70s right now is not close to at large range. And W&M will go tumbling in the NET as soon as they lose to anyone in the middle of the conference

Syracuse is now actually 1 spot behind us in the NET, and was only a quad 2 win. Pitt so far down thats only quad 3

To get an at-large bid, the CAA needs a standout team. When we joined the CAA, I remember thinking that the CAA was an average conference with no extremely good or extremely bad teams. Other than the Power Four; Big East; and possibly a few others with great reputations like Gonzaga, St. Mary's, San Diego State, VCU, or Memphis; a mid-major will never do well enough to be an at-large lock. The CAA will never be good enough for a team that goes 30-4 with a loss in the Final to be a lock unless the NCAA Tournament expands, which I do not want because seven rounds could make brackets hard or impossible to fit on one page. In KenPom, our strength of schedule (SOS) is 81st. I estimated our final strength of schedule if we lose in the CAA Final, and I got 167th. In 2005-2006 when we got snubbed, we were 24-6 on Selection Sunday with a KenPom SOS of 117th, multiple wins better than any we could have this season, and the CAA was better then.

Elon's Chandler Cuthrell is third in Division I with 22.7 points, and Davis is 21st. Cuthrell shoots well, and averages 7.7 rebounds. He and Davis could have a good Player of the Year battle.

[Wags]

Towson at #17 Kansas on ESPN on 9:00 pm tonight.

[EvanJ]

As an underdog, North Carolina A&T led 38-20 at halftime at UNC Greensboro. It took UNCG 9:07 to tie it at 49. NC A&T went up 6, but UNCG took a 58-57 lead with 6:16 left. NC A&T took the final lead with 4:13 left and won 71-65.

Drexel lost 74-66 hosting Howard.

Kansas leads Towson 25-13.

[stuball888]

Shocker Howard University goes on the road and beat UNCW 67-66
Bad home loss for UNCW

[Jojogunne]

Back-to-back wins over the CAA.

[dutchPride86]

Meanwhile Elon went on the road and nearly beat Va Tech, losing by 1 in OT on a basket with 10 seconds left. Va Tech is better than Syracuse this year.

This on the heels of Elon beating a then 9-1 Richmond earlier this week. Elon might be good...

[triplec2195]

Meanwhile Elon went on the road and nearly beat Va Tech, losing by 1 in OT on a basket with 10 seconds left. Va Tech is better than Syracuse this year.

This on the heels of Elon beating a then 9-1 Richmond earlier this week. Elon might be good...

Also don't sleep on both W&M and S.B. THEY'RE BOTH overachieving based on pre-season CAA predictions! Well S.B. anyway as W&M picked 4th.

[triplec2195]

Last night Howard played at UNCW and were 15.5 point underdogs. They wound up beating UNCW 67-66. They have also beaten NCA&T, Hampton, and Drexel. I guess they get up for games against the CAA, LOL.

I just saw your previous post Stu my bad!!

[EvanJ]

UNCW tried to make a big comeback, and ended by missing two shots by the basket. Then they scored, but the game was over first. Elon blew a big lead at Virginia Tech and lost by 1 in overtime. Northeastern covered in a loss at Syracuse. It was an 0-3 day against Division I with UNCW having been a big favorite. They got their first home loss.

https://bracketologists.com/bracket/ that makes the bracket using the NET has W&M with a 13 seed.

[HUSID74]

According to the latest CAA KenPom rankings Hofstra is #1 at 108, followed by UNCW at 115, W&M at 122 and Towson at 147. Elon is fifth at 155 and Charlestonis sixth at 180.
Quite a change for us where we were ranked is low as 8th in the pre-season CAA predictions!

[triplec2195]

Victory changed the entire complexion of this team(please practice your "fowl" shots) as has Preston who's playing like a seasoned veteran. Throw in German shooting 45% from three and Cruz off the charts and give Biggie a shout it too for contributing. This team is a far cry from last years one on one driven team where everyone would stand around watching Davis and Aranguren go one on one.

[Wags]

Another ROTW award, the fourth before conference play, for Preston.

[dutchPride86]

So with conference play about to start, figured it was a good time to post my too long semi deep dive as to how I see the conference stacking up so far that none of you asked for. Lol. Anyway...

The Favorite:
-UNCW: Underwhelming non conf schedule makes them a little hard to judge. But still have best coach and home court advantage in conference. And one of deepest rosters (even with a couple of the CAA transfers not having even played yet). If CJ Luster (remember him from Stony?!) ever plays for them watch out

The Contenders:
-Towson: Tyler Tejada and Dylan Williamson are still there and really good. But do they have enough offense to supplement them? Dropped them from co-favorite for that reason
- Hofstra: We 100% should be in the mix for a top 4 seed at worst off what we've seen to date
- Charleston: Crushed by injuries. But reportedly going to get Colby Duggan back eventually (remember him from Campbell?!), which should make a big difference
- William & Mary: No stars cause no one plays big minutes. But deep and good. Seems like they made the right hire at head coach last year

One of those 5 teams should win the conference imo.

Wild card:
Elon - Beat Richmond, took VA Tech to OT, climbing up the rankings. They could be in the mix.

Middle of the Pack (all these teams could easily beat you if not careful):
Stony, Monmouth, Hampton, Campbell, Northeastern

Fighting to avoid the Friday game:
Drexel (did NIL destroy them? Doesnt seem to be their year). NC A&T


As for individual players, this would be my First Team:
Cruz Davis (should be POY favorite)
Tyler Tejada (Self explanatory)
Nolan Hodge (made the leap for Uncw averaging nearly 16ppg),
Chandler Cuthrell (Elon. Averaging 21pts 7reb as transfer after only averaging 7ppg off the bench at Purdue Fort Wayne last yr)
Erik Pratt (Stony. Averaging 18ppg, 4reb and nearly 3 ast. Nice find for them from Milwaukee)

Other players to watch:
Dylan Williamson (Towson)
Jlynn Counter (Charleston)
Jason Rivera Torres (Monmouth)
Dj Smith and Dovydas Butka (Campbell)
Lewis Walker (NC A&T. Might be Edmeads biggest comp for rookie of the year)

[triplec2195]

So with conference play about to start, figured it was a good time to post my too long semi deep dive as to how I see the conference stacking up so far that none of you asked for. Lol. Anyway...

The Favorite:
-UNCW: Underwhelming non conf schedule makes them a little hard to judge. But still have best coach and home court advantage in conference. And one of deepest rosters (even with a couple of the CAA transfers not having even played yet). If CJ Luster (remember him from Stony?!) ever plays for them watch out

The Contenders:
-Towson: Tyler Tejada and Dylan Williamson are still there and really good. But do they have enough offense to supplement them? Dropped them from co-favorite for that reason
- Hofstra: We 100% should be in the mix for a top 4 seed at worst off what we've seen to date
- Charleston: Crushed by injuries. But reportedly going to get Colby Duggan back eventually (remember him from Campbell?!), which should make a big difference
- William & Mary: No stars cause no one plays big minutes. But deep and good. Seems like they made the right hire at head coach last year

One of those 5 teams should win the conference imo.

Wild card:
Elon - Beat Richmond, took VA Tech to OT, climbing up the rankings. They could be in the mix.

Middle of the Pack (all these teams could easily beat you if not careful):
Stony, Monmouth, Hampton, Campbell, Northeastern

Fighting to avoid the Friday game:
Drexel (did NIL destroy them? Doesnt seem to be their year). NC A&T


As for individual players, this would be my First Team:
Cruz Davis (should be POY favorite)
Tyler Tejada (Self explanatory)
Nolan Hodge (made the leap for Uncw averaging nearly 16ppg),
Chandler Cuthrell (Elon. Averaging 21pts 7reb as transfer after only averaging 7ppg off the bench at Purdue Fort Wayne last yr)
Erik Pratt (Stony. Averaging 18ppg, 4reb and nearly 3 ast. Nice find for them from Milwaukee)

Other players to watch:
Dylan Williamson (Towson)
Jlynn Counter (Charleston)
Jason Rivera Torres (Monmouth)
Dj Smith and Dovydas Butka (Campbell)
Lewis Walker (NC A&T. Might be Edmeads biggest comp for rookie of the year)

You put a lot of time in here dutchPride and thanks for your effort and the CAA scouting report. For sure there will be a lot of tough games and I think that we're in a good place with the tough OOC schedule and the close games we played and the grind it out wins. The only team I've seen this year was Towson and early in the year they looked very tough and Williamson is a force to be reckoned with. I believe we are ready and up for the challenge.