Game 8 - Princeton, 12/1/21, 7 PM EST

[Jojogunne]

The Lions take on the Tigers Wednesday evening:

https://gohofstra.com/news/2021/11/29/m ... esday.aspx

Question: What do the Princeton and Hofstra men's basketball teams have in common?

[EvanJ]

Question: What do the Princeton and Hofstra men's basketball teams have in common?

We're tied for 13th with exactly 11 threes made per game.

Cramer is still in the Game Notes' Tentative Starting Lineup. Ray can tie Pemberton for second with 129 games. Buie leads with 141 thanks in part to playing 8 games and being able to take an injury redshirt. Ray is 12 points behind Rick Apodaca, 25 behind Leroy Allen, and 27 behind Frank Walker. Passing them would make him 12th, and he will stay there a while because 11th place Norman Richardson has 240 more than Walker. If he averages his current 15.2 points for the rest of the season including two CAA Tournament games and none after that, he will get 395 more points to finish 11th with 1,805. Tenth place David Taylor has 1,818, so Ray could pass him. Ray probably won't pass ninth place Pemberton, who scored 1,982. Passing Apodaca (who played in the America East and CAA) will make Ray sixth in career points by Hofstra players in the CAA behind Jenkins, Wright-Foreman, Agudio, Stokes, and Pemberton. Ray has 5.51 times as many points as Cramer, who is second with 256 points at Hofstra among our current players. Our current players other than Ray scored 1,157 for us, which is 82.1 percent of Ray's 1,410.

Our assist/turnover ratio leads the CAA at 1.43. Delaware, who was picked first, is ninth at 0.76.

[triplec2195]

So is the feeling here that we will be a 2-3 point favorite in basically a pick-em kind of game and only because we're playing at home. This should be a very close and tough matchup.

[Jojogunne]

Question: What do the Princeton and Hofstra men's basketball teams have in common?

We're tied for 13th with exactly 11 threes made per game.

Cramer is still in the Game Notes' Tentative Starting Lineup. Ray can tie Pemberton for second with 129 games. Buie leads with 141 thanks in part to playing 8 games and being able to take an injury redshirt. Ray is 12 points behind Rick Apodaca, 25 behind Leroy Allen, and 27 behind Frank Walker. Passing them would make him 12th, and he will stay there a while because 11th place Norman Richardson has 240 more than Walker. If he averages his current 15.2 points for the rest of the season including two CAA Tournament games and none after that, he will get 395 more points to finish 11th with 1,805. Tenth place David Taylor has 1,818, so Ray could pass him. Ray probably won't pass ninth place Pemberton, who scored 1,982. Passing Apodaca (who played in the America East and CAA) will make Ray sixth in career points by Hofstra players in the CAA behind Jenkins, Wright-Foreman, Agudio, Stokes, and Pemberton. Ray has 5.51 times as many points as Cramer, who is second with 256 points at Hofstra among our current players. Our current players other than Ray scored 1,157 for us, which is 82.1 percent of Ray's 1,410.

Our assist/turnover ratio leads the CAA at 1.43. Delaware, who was picked first, is ninth at 0.76.

Actually, I was thinking of Butch van Breda Kolff, who coached both teams (Hofstra twice) and also took the LA Lakers to the NBA finals twice.

[HUSID74]

So is the feeling here that we will be a 2-3 point favorite in basically a pick-em kind of game and only because we're playing at home. This should be a very close and tough matchup.

That's about what it looks like although ESPN's Match-Up predictor gives us an 89.2 percent chance of winning...quite a number for what looks to be a close one.

[triplec2195]

Imagine that I wonder what that is based on!!


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[daHUPride]

So is the feeling here that we will be a 2-3 point favorite in basically a pick-em kind of game and only because we're playing at home. This should be a very close and tough matchup.

That's about what it looks like although ESPN's Match-Up predictor gives us an 89.2 percent chance of winning...quite a number for what looks to be a close one.

they are usually pretty good - and especially hope this time they are right - those guys making those odds

[RollPride15]

So is the feeling here that we will be a 2-3 point favorite in basically a pick-em kind of game and only because we're playing at home. This should be a very close and tough matchup.

That's about what it looks like although ESPN's Match-Up predictor gives us an 89.2 percent chance of winning...quite a number for what looks to be a close one.

they are usually pretty good - and especially hope this time they are right - those guys making those odds

Yeah I don't get this one. By Sagarin we are 133rd, Princeton is 127th. Kenpom puts us at 137 and Princeton at 153. And Massey (which fluctuates a lot in the early season) has us at 134 and Princeton at 110. So the metrics are pretty aligned on us as a 130-140ish team in the country at the moment, and would suggest that this game is a dogfight even with home-court advantage. We're similar teams too -- lots of offensive firepower with iffy defense.

[HofstraMathew]

That's about what it looks like although ESPN's Match-Up predictor gives us an 89.2 percent chance of winning...quite a number for what looks to be a close one.

they are usually pretty good - and especially hope this time they are right - those guys making those odds

Yeah I don't get this one. By Sagarin we are 133rd, Princeton is 127th. Kenpom puts us at 137 and Princeton at 153. And Massey (which fluctuates a lot in the early season) has us at 134 and Princeton at 110. So the metrics are pretty aligned on us as a 130-140ish team in the country at the moment, and would suggest that this game is a dogfight even with home-court advantage. We're similar teams too -- lots of offensive firepower with iffy defense.

It is based on the ESPN College Basketball Power Index which has Hofstra at 106 and Princeton at 293. For comparison they have Detroit Mercy at 175. It seems strength of schedule has helped us in this ranking; Hofstra has the 15th strongest schedule according to this and Detroit Mercy was 6th (again just using as comparison since it was our last opponent). Princeton is 207th.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi

[The Shadow]

HU 4.5 to 5 point favorite over Princeton.

[HUSID74]

ESPN's Pick Center gives us an 88.8 % chance of winning and slots us as a 4 point favorite.

This is one of those games that makes or breaks a season as I see as a toss-up

[Cards]

looks like the guy we need to pay attention to is Wright. He is a 6'4" guard who leads team in scoring, shoots the 3 at 49%, and LEADS the team in rebounding with 8 rpg! Interesting combination of stats.

Llewellyn is the other guy to watch.

PU has a good amount of size, however, all of their bigs play minimal minutes (roughly 5-10 min per guy per game). Added up, their bigs play 35-40 mpg. Sounds primarily like a guard oriented team...........sound familiar.

[triplec2195]

looks like the guy we need to pay attention to is Wright. He is a 6'4" guard who leads team in scoring, shoots the 3 at 49%, and LEADS the team in rebounding with 8 rpg! Interesting combination of stats.

PU has a good amount of size, however, all of their bigs play minimal minutes (roughly 5-10 min per guy per game). Added up, their bigs play 35-40 mpg. Sounds primarily like a guard oriented team...........sound familiar.

We can’t let Wright shoot 49% from three that’s nuts. I wonder if we see. Iyiola?

[EvanJ]

looks like the guy we need to pay attention to is Wright. He is a 6'4" guard who leads team in scoring, shoots the 3 at 49%, and LEADS the team in rebounding with 8 rpg! Interesting combination of stats.

I thought about previous CAA players who got a lot of rebounds and shot threes well. In 2018-2019, Elon's Tyler Seibring averaged 16.5 points, 5.9 rebounds, 2.4 threes, and shot threes .412. In 2017-2018, Charleston's Jarrell Brantley averaged 17.3 points, 7.1 rebounds, 1.3 threes, and shot threes .385. In 2017-2018, William & Mary's Justin Pierce averaged 14.7 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1.5 threes, and shot threes .416. In 2010-2011, UNCW's Chad Tomko averaged 17.6 points, 5.9 rebounds, 2.6 threes, and shot threes .370. In 2010-2011, VCU's Bradford Burgess averaged 14.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.8 threes, and shot threes .434. In 2010-2011, Northeastern's Chaisson Allen averaged 16.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.1 threes, and shot threes .380. In 2008-2009, Delaware's Marc Egerson averaged 15.4 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.8 threes, and shot threes .383. In the sixteen seasons from 2005-2006 to 2020-2021 that the CAA has statistics for, those were the seven closest players I found.

http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=368965 will have statistics.

Edit: Princeton's roster has 19 players, and 15 have played in at least 3 of 7 games. Only 1 hasn't played. Since the Ivy League doesn't give athletic scholarships, teams can have larger rosters without anybody having the stigma of being a walk-on. Seven players have played in at least 6 games and average at least 4.7 points. Tosan Evbuomwan averages 11.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 5.0 assists. In the last 29 complete seasons, 78 players averaged at least 11.5, 5.5, and 5. The only player to do that in the same conference as us (CAA, AE, NAC, or ECC) was Delaware's Jarvis Threatt in 2013-2014. Despite averaging 5.0 assists, Evboumwan is a forward. In the 29 seasons from 1992-1993 to 2020-2021, a team never had a guard average at least 8.0 rebounds and a forward average at least 5.0 assists. I typed that in a file so I will check after the season if they did that.

http://defiantlydutch.blogspot.com/2021 ... ceton.html is Jerry Beach's "I'll Be Quirky: Princeton." KenPom predicts us to win 76-72.

[Polito]

This is a good game right here - solid opportunity - very similar teams in many ways, relatively evenly matched on paper - this is a VERY important game IMO for HU - won’t make or break the season, but will make or break this OOC - this is likely the best team that HU has a true realistic shot to beat, and it’s at home

Like I said, gonna find out if this team is ready to get its act together or still screwing around.

HU will need to continue the good ball movement displayed last game - I hope they attack the hoop heavily and don’t get vision of grandeur with the Silverio approach shooting from half court all game - play stingy D, be aggressive with the fast break (an advantage for HU I think), make good shot choices, and and exploit their post - of course always take care of the ball, should go without saying

Great opp at a quality OOC win Speedy, this game you can build momentum off of - ROLL PRIDE

[EvanJ]

We have the same starters, which are still without Iyiola. Princeton is starting Ryan Langborg (guard), Jaelin Llewellyn (guard), Ethan Wright (guard), Drew Friberg (forward), and Tosan Evbuomwan (forward).

https://www.flohoops.com/live/33024 has video for subscribers.

At the same time, W&M is an 11.5 point underdog at Navy, and UNCW is a 5 point favorite hosting Norfolk State.

Edit: The announcers said Iyiola can come off the bench. https://static.caasports.com/custompage ... M#team.ind has our statistics.
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-baske ... s/_/id/163 has Princeton's statistics.

[EvanJ]

We went up 4-0, down 11-10, and lead 12-11. Princeton shot threes 3-6, and we shot them 0-3. Estrada has 6, Cramer has 4, and Cooks has 2. Ray has one shot, which is a missed three. Nobody committed a foul before the first media timeout.

Edit: We went on a 10-0 run to lead 20-11, and Princeton called timeout when we scored to go up 22-13 with 12:20 left in the first half. Iyiola played 1:07, and then Silverio replaced him to have us have five guards. We'll see if Burgess comes in soon. Estrada has 9 points, Dubar has 7, Cramer has 4, and Cooks has 2.

Edit: Iyiola re-entered and within 1:21 (2:28 total) committed two fouls. Estrada has 13. Silverio scored 8 in 1:22 with a three, three free throws after being fouled shooting a three, and a two. We lead 34-25 with 7:10 left in the half, which ties our largest lead. We have 8 assists, and Burgess has 3 in 5 minutes. Ray hasn't scored. They just honored the Women's Soccer team.

Edit: We scored 43 in the first 15 minutes. We lead 46-30. Estrada has 18. Ray hasn't scored, and our players other than Ray and Cooks shot 17-20 (.850). Silverio and Cramer have 8 points without a miss.

[EvanJ]

Our lead peaked at 48-30, and we lead 50-34 at halftime. Cooks made our last field goal with 3:01 left, and we ended the drought when Ray got his first points from 2 free throws with 3.1 seconds left. Princeton made a three after that, but it was shot too late. FloHoops doesn't let you go to earlier in the game, so I can't see for myself when it was shot and when the clock expired. With 5:48 left, Cramer left with a hopefully minor injury. He tested himself on a bike. Estrada scored 18 and shot 8-10. Cramer scored 8 by making 4 twos without a miss in 7 minutes. Iyiola played 2 minutes, so for a majority of the half we didn't use a forward. Silverio scored 8 and missed a three after that. Dubar shot 3-4 and scored 7. Cooks shot 3-8, scored 7, and led all players with 4 assists. Ray shot 0-5 with 3 attemps being threes, and as I said, he made 2 free throws. Burgess played 5 minutes, didn't shoot, and had 3 assists and 2 rebounds. Iyiola had no shots, 2 fouls, and no positive contributions in 2 minutes. Estrada scored more than the next two highest scorers on either team combined. Jaelin Llewellyn led Princeton with 9 points. Tosan Evbuomwan made 4 twos to score 8 without a miss, but he had 2 fouls and 3 turnovers. Ryan Langborg scored 6 and led them with 4 rebounds. Ethan Wright scored 6, and had 3 rebounds, 2 fouls, and 3 turnovers. Max Johns scored 5 by making a three and a two without a miss, and he played 5 minutes. Drew Friberg was scoreless in 13 minutes, Matt Allocco was scoreless in 7 minutes without shooting, Zach Martini was scoreless in 5 minutes, and Mason Hooks was scoreless in 1 minute without shooting. The second half is starting, so I'm not typing team statistics until after the game.

[EvanJ]

Edit: Silverio made a three-point play to get our largest lead at 49-30, and Princeton went on an 8-0 run to make us call timeout with 14:25. We didn't use our use it or lose it timeout in the first half. Cramer hasn't returned since the injury. Iyiola returned and missed by the basket. Silverio made 1 of his last 5 field goals. He and Dubar have 11. Princeton has more players in double-digits. Langborg, Llewellyn, and Wright have 11, and Evbuomwan has 10.

Edit: We leads 63-50 with 11:52 left. Ray hasn't made a field goal, but he leads us with 5 rebounds, and just drew an offensive foul. Estrada shot 1-1 in the second half with 2 assists and 2 turnovers, so he has 20.

Edit: Llewellyn made consecutive threes, and our lead is down to 73-63 with 6:07 left.

[Dooku25]

Closing out games is becoming a real problem for this team. They played a flawless first half. It's hard to believe it came down to a bank shot 3 by Ray to escape with the victory. Speedy and staff have to figure out the last 5 minutes of these games.