2024 CAA Men's Basketball Tournament Including My Prediction Contest

[EvanJ]

Here are the seeds:

1. Charleston: 15-3
2. Drexel: 13-5
3. Hofstra: 12-6, 1-0 vs. UNCW
4. UNCW: 12-6, 0-1 vs. Hofstra
5. Towson: 11-7
6. Delaware: 10-8, 2-1 vs. Stony Brook and Monmouth combined
7. Stony Brook: 10-8, 2-2 vs. Delaware and Monmouth combined
8. Monmouth: 10-8, 1-2 vs. Delaware and Stony Brook combined
9. Campbell: 8-10
10. Northeastern: 7-11
11. Elon: 6-12
12. North Carolina A&T: 5-13
13. William & Mary: 4-14
14. Hampton: 3-15

Friday's games are William & Mary vs. North Carolina A&T at 2:00 P.M., and Elon vs. Hampton at 4:30 P.M.
https://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=519432 will have statistis of the first game, and https://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=519431 will have statistics of the second game.

On Saturday:
https://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=519433 will have statistics of the first game.
https://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=519434 will have statistics of the second game.
https://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=519435 will have statistics of the third game.
https://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=519436 will have statistics of the fourth game that determines who we play.

On Sunday:
https://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=519437 will have statistics of the first game with Charleston.
https://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=519438 will have statistics of the second game with UNCW.
https://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=519439 will have statistics of the third game with Drexel.
https://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=519440 will have statistics of the fourth game with us.

The statistics links for the Semifinals and Final are not made yet.

https://caasports.com/news/2024/3/2/bra ... nship.aspx has the schedule. We will play on Sunday at 8:30 P.M., Monday at 8:30 P.M. if we make it, and Tuesday at 7:00 P.M. if we make it.

I will make a score prediction contest. I will not make a bracket prediction contest because I chose not to decide how many points to make each round, and having a score prediction contest allows everybody to get points from every game if you predict it in time. You are allowed to make score predictions for the whole tournament before it starts, but your predictions will only be scored if you are correct about both teams in the game. You can change your predictions at any point until the game starts. Games must be predicted by the minute before the originally announced time. For example, First Round predictions must be made by 1:59 P.M. and 4:29 P.M. Here is how I evaluate score predictions. You start with 100 points. For each point off on the margin, you lose 3 points. For each point off on the combined points, you lose 1 point. For example, if you predict William & Mary to win 74-70, and North Carolina A&T wins 71-69, you are 6 points off on the margin to lose 18 points, 4 points off on the combined points, and your score will be 100 - 18 - 4 = 78. If you do not predict a game, your score is 0 if the worst prediction is 5 or higher, and 5 points less than the worst prediction if it is 4 or lower. Getting enough deductions to make your score be negative is unlikely but possible. If there are ties, the tiebreakers are your score from the Final, and then the games in every round combined in reverse chronological order, meaning the sum of your two Semifinal scores is the second tiebreaker.

If you believe I scored anybody's predictions wrong, post that. Being in the Central Time Zone makes the games start earlier, and I hope to score the predictions every night.

I will invite people here to my dad's NCAA Tournament Pool, and the amount of people decreases every year. That costs $10.

[cactus]

First Round:
Elon 78, Hampton 62 L
NC A&T 67, W&M 59 L

Second Round:
Towson 71 W&M 62
Delaware 70 Hampton 59
Stonybrook 66 Northeastern 60
Monmouth 76 Campbell 72

Quarter Finals:
Charleston 83 Monmouth 75
Drexel 78 Stonybrook 69
Hofstra 72 Delaware 68
UNCW 69 Towson 61

Semi Finals:
Charleston 81 UNCW 78
Hofstra 84 Drexel 81 (OT)

Finals:
Charleston 121 Hofstra 120 (4 OT)

[Wags]

Finals:
Charleston 121 Hofstra 120 (4 OT)

For real?!

[triplec2195]

Well in 4 OT's I wonder how many points our bench scores and who fouls out? Lol

[EvanJ]

Elon 77, Hampton 71
William & Mary 72, North Carolina A&T 65

William & Mary has the worse seed, but is favored by 3.5. North Carolina A&T is last in the CAA in scoring and field goal percentage in offense and defense, which is hard to do. Leading scorer Landon Glasper, who averages 20.9 points and shoots .356, is questionable due to injury, and he needs to play in order to play in 75 percent of games to qualify for statistics leaders.

[Wags]

I don't think I'll do too well with this, but I'll take a shot just for fun.

My initial thought is:

W&M over NC A&T by 4
Elon over Hampton by 7

Monmouth over Campbell by 5
Towson over W&M by 21
Stony Brook over Northeastern by 8
Elon upsets Delaware by 4

Charleston over Monmouth by 19
UNCW over Towson by 6
Drexel over Stony Brook by 9 (but a one-possession game within the last 3-4 minutes)
Hofstra over Elon by 13

Charleston over UNCW by 7
Hofstra over Drexel by 5

Charleston over Hofstra by 9 (hope I'm wrong!)

But since Evan is letting us pick round by round, I'll only choose the first round for now and take it from there:

W&M 72, NC A&T 68
Elon 78, Hampton 71

I think Hofstra could have a difficult time winning it all but I think they'll have a great chance of getting to the championship game. Out of the entire bottom of the bracket, there isn't a single team they could face in their first two games - including Drexel (despite the Dragons having a higher seed) - that is better than them. If they play their game, I think they get to the finals. UNCW or Charleston (especially Charleston) would be very tough, but once you're at that point, you go all out and try to cut the nets. The way things have lined up for them with the bracket, I think they're in great shape to at the very least, play on Tuesday night.

[cactus]

Finals:
Charleston 121 Hofstra 120 (4 OT)

For real?!

expecting the heartache makes it a little easier to deal when it happens

[Wags]

Finals:
Charleston 121 Hofstra 120 (4 OT)

For real?!

expecting the heartache makes it a little easier to deal when it happens

ugh, not again!

[Pride97]

First Round

NC A&T 68, W&M 65
Elon 70, Hampton 61

[EvanJ]

Thomas is 6 behind James Madison's Darren McLinton in 1995-1996 for the CAA record for most threes made in a season. Seven of the top nine were in 2014-2015 or later. Thomas leads Division I with 312 threes attempted, but he does not lead the CAA in threes attempted per minute. Charleston's Reyne Smith averages one three attempted per 3.12 minutes. Thomas attempts one three per 3.76 minutes. More minutes for every three attempted means fewer threes attempted per minute.

https://gohofstra.com/news/2024/3/5/men ... -seed.aspx is titled "Hofstra Heads To CAA Championship As No. 3 Seed."

https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/side ... game32.pdf is our Game Notes.

[Wags]

W&M was NC A&T's ironic line of demarcation this season. The Aggies beat W&M at home for a third straight win that moved them to 4-2 in the CAA. Including today, they went 1-12 thereafter, with W&M ending their season.

[EvanJ]

W&M pulled away to win 79-62. Here are the prediction contest scores:

Me: W&M 72, Hampton 65
10 off on the margin is -30
4 off on combined points is -4
Score = 100 - 30 - 4 = 66

Wags: W&M 72, Hampton 68
13 off on the margin is -39
1 off on combined points is -1
Score = 100 - 39 - 1 = 60

Pride97: NC A&T 68, W&M 65
20 off on the margin is -60
8 off on the combined points is -8
Score = 100 - 60 - 8 = 32

cactus: NC A&T 67, W&M 59
25 off on the margin is -75
15 off on the combined points is -15
Score = 100 - 75 - 15 = 10

The mean was 42. There are not cumulative scores after one game.

Hampton leads 9-4.

Edit: Hampton leads 34-25 at halftime, so Elon is less than one-third of the way to my prediction of 77.

[EvanJ]

Hampton blew a 14 point lead, but scored with 6.3 seconds left to upset Elon 56-55. Here are the prediction contest scores:

Pride97: Elon 70, Hampton 61
10 off on the margin is -30
20 off on the combined points is -20
Score = 100 - 30 - 20 = 50

Me: Elon 77, Hampton 71
7 off on the margin is -21
37 off on the combined points is -37
Score 100 - 21 - 37 = 42

Wags: Elon 78, Hampton 71:
8 off on the margin is -24
38 off on the combined points is -38
Score = 100 - 24 - 38 = 38

cactus: Elon 78, Hampton 62
17 off on the margin is -51
29 off on the combined points is -29
Score = 100 - 51 - 29 = 20

The mean was 37.5.

Cumulative scores:
1. EvanJ: 66 + 42 = 108
2. Wags: 60 + 38 = 98
3. Pride97: 32 + 50 = 82
4. cactus: 10 + 20 = 30

The mean was 79.5.

Other people can enter. If you predict 11 of 13 games, you could get more points than people who predict every game.

[EvanJ]

My predictions are:

Monmouth 75, Campbell 69
Towson 71, William & Mary 61
Stony Brook 74, Northeastern 69
Delaware 78, Hampton 68

[Pride97]

2nd round:

Monmouth 78, Campbell 68
Towson 68, William & Mary 54
Stony Brook 76, Northeastern 72
Delaware 80, Hampton 64

[cactus]

Hampton blew a 14 point lead, but scored with 6.3 seconds left to upset Elon 56-55. Here are the prediction contest scores:

Pride97: Elon 70, Hampton 61
10 off on the margin is -30
20 off on the combined points is -20
Score = 100 - 30 - 20 = 50

Me: Elon 77, Hampton 71
7 off on the margin is -21
37 off on the combined points is -37
Score 100 - 21 - 37 = 42

Wags: Elon 78, Hampton 71:
8 off on the margin is -24
38 off on the combined points is -38
Score = 100 - 24 - 38 = 38

cactus: Elon 78, Hampton 62
17 off on the margin is -51
29 off on the combined points is -29
Score = 100 - 51 - 29 = 20

The mean was 37.5.

Cumulative scores:
1. EvanJ: 66 + 42 = 108
2. Wags: 60 + 38 = 98
3. Pride97: 32 + 50 = 82
4. cactus: 10 + 20 = 30

The mean was 79.5.

Other people can enter. If you predict 11 of 13 games, you could get more points than people who predict every game.

Certainly more than me who is 0-2 just picking winners so far

[EvanJ]

Monmouth trailed by 9 early before going up 25 and winning 90-67. Monmouth had six players score double-digits, which ake it okay that Xander Rice shot 4-14 and scored 12. Campbell's Anthony Dell'Orso (23), Jasin Sinani (21), and Laurynas Vaistaras (10) combined for 54 points on 15-24 shooting including 7-11 threes, and 17-19 free throws. You're not going to find many games where a team has three players that score that much and shoot that well in a loss by 23.

cactus: Monmouth 76, Campbell 72
19 off on the margin is -57
9 off on the combined points is -9
Score = 100 - 57 - 9 = 34

Pride97: Monmouth 78, Campbell 68
13 off on the margin is -39
11 off on the combined points is -11
Score = 100 - 39 - 11 = 50

Me: Monmouth 75, Campbell 69
17 off on the margin is -51
13 off on the combined points is -13
Score = 100 - 51 - 13 = 36

Cumulative scores:
Me: 144
Pride97: 132
Wags: 98 (predicted 2 of 3 games)
cactus: 64

All three predictions were similar. The mean for that game was 40.

Wags did not predict a score.

[EvanJ]

Towson went on a 20-0 run in the second half and defeated W&M 67-56.

Pride97: Towson 68, W&M 54
3 off on the margin is -9
1 off on the combined points is -1
Score = 100 - 9 - 1 = 90

Me: Towson 71, W&M 61
1 off on the margin is -3
11 off on the combined points is -11
Score = 100 - 3 - 11 = 86

cactus: Towson 71, W&M 62
2 off on the margin is -6
10 off on the combined points is -10
Score = 100 - 6 - 10 = 84

Wags did not predict. The average score was 86 2/3.

Cumulative scores:

Me: 230
Pride97: 222
cactus: 148
Wags: 98 (predicted 2 of 4 games)

[Wags]

Oops, I forgot to pick today.

Well, for the last one tonight, I'll say Delaware 74, Hampton 59

[EvanJ]

Stony Brook defeated Northeastern 75-65.

Me: Stony Brook 74, Northeastern 69
5 points off on the margin is -15
3 points off on the combined score is -3
Score = 100 - 15 - 3 = 82

Pride97: Stony Brook 76, Northeastern 72
6 points off on the margin is -18
8 points off on the combined score is -8
Score = 100 - 18 - 8 = 74

cactus: Stony Brook 66, Northeastern 60
4 points off on the margin is -12
14 points off on the combined score is -14
Score = 100 - 12 - 14 = 74

Cumulative scores:

Me: 312
Pride97: 296
cactus: 222
Wags: 98 (predicted 2 of 5 games)