MBB Game 30 @UNCW, Feb. 29 (Thu), 7 PM

[Jojogunne]

After our win over Elon, we are in third place:

1. Charleston (13-3, 22-7) W7
Remaining: Campbell & Hofstra

2. UNCW (11-4, 20-7) W1
Remaining: Hofstra & Towson

3. Hofstra (11-5, 18-11) W3
Remaining: @UNCW & @Charleston

4. Drexel (10-5, 17-11) L1
Remaining: SBU & Northeastern

5. Towson (10-6, 17-12) L1
Remaining: @NC A&T & @UNCW

https://caasports.com/standings.aspx?standings=207

As someone else pointed out, we have to win at least one of our remaining two games to have a chance to finish in the top four and avoid playing in the CAAT until Sunday, March 10:

https://caasports.com/tournaments/?id=212

Here are the tiebreakers:

https://caasports.com/sports/2022/2/25/ ... 23020.aspx

Oh, to have one of our CAA losses back: Charleston, @Northeastern, Campbell, @Monmouth, @Drexel.

Our game @UNCW will be on FloHoops.

[Wags]

Listing this again here: https://bball.notnothing.net/caa.php?sport=mbb

Thanks to dutchPride86, who first posted it in the Elon game thread! Great link!

Believe it or not, Hofstra can still get a 1 seed if they win out and Charleston loses out (I know, very unlikely, especially with Charleston hosting Campbell on Thursday, and we'd gladly just take a top-four, but #1 IS still in play!).

[joeg1]

Four teams still have 3 games:

On Monday, Drex@Del and UNCW@Cam

[Wags]

Four teams still have 3 games:

On Monday, Drex@Del and UNCW@Cam

Can watch both - CBS SportsNetwork doubleheader.

[cactus]

Listing this again here: https://bball.notnothing.net/caa.php?sport=mbb

Thanks to dutchPride86, who first posted it in the Elon game thread! Great link!

Believe it or not, Hofstra can still get a 1 seed if they win out and Charleston loses out (I know, very unlikely, especially with Charleston hosting Campbell on Thursday, and we'd gladly just take a top-four, but #1 IS still in play!).

The default winners/losers (with Hofstra losing both remaining games) still have Hofstra as the #4 seed above Delaware, Monmouth, and Towson based on round-robin record (2-1). That can change quickly, simply having Delaware beating Drexel Monday drops them to #6.

[Wags]

Listing this again here: https://bball.notnothing.net/caa.php?sport=mbb

Thanks to dutchPride86, who first posted it in the Elon game thread! Great link!

Believe it or not, Hofstra can still get a 1 seed if they win out and Charleston loses out (I know, very unlikely, especially with Charleston hosting Campbell on Thursday, and we'd gladly just take a top-four, but #1 IS still in play!).

The default winners/losers (with Hofstra losing both remaining games) still have Hofstra as the #4 seed above Delaware, Monmouth, and Towson based on round-robin record (2-1). That can change quickly, simply having Delaware beating Drexel Monday drops them to #6.

Yeah, as DutchPride86 pointed out (below) in the Elon thread, something like a 3-way tie involving Monmouth would cause Hofstra to fall out of the top four, but that looks unlikely based on everyone's remaining schedules. At this point, it seems that the percentages of Hofstra getting a top-four seed even if they lose out are very high.

I don't think 4 would necessarily hurt more than 3. It may even be better because if Charleston keeps rolling and ends up as the 1, they'll probably have to beat them at some point, and it may be better to try to do that playing their second game in two days in the semis rather than in their third game in three days in the finals. So, the 4 seed might actually be the best seed to make a run.

If Hofstra winds up in a 4-way tie for 4th at 11-7 with Towson, Delaware and Monmouth (which is what would happen if the presumed favorite won every remaining game), or a 3-way tie with Towson and Delaware - Hofstra it appears would win that tiebreaker. However if Hofstra winds up in a 3-way tie with Monmouth and either of the other two - Monmouth would take it down.

[Polito]

Wild that HU is even in this position this year. Thankful they are.

The rubber meets the road these final two games. Trask is going to be electric and a raucous atmosphere - will either bring the best or worst out in this group. Glad HU can lean on their Duke experience to prepare. Let's see the juice fellas.

[HUSID80]

Right now ESPN only giving us a 29.1 percent chance of winning at UNCW.
Surprisingly they give us a 33.6 percent chance of beating Charleton.

[stuball888]

use that as fuel to pump the team up
us against the world mentality

[Wags]

Right now ESPN only giving us a 29.1 percent chance of winning at UNCW.
Surprisingly they give us a 33.6 percent chance of beating Charleton.

Trask is a tougher environment, but interesting that the odds are slightly better to win at first-place Charleston (which is rolling with seven straight wins) over winning at UNCW (which lost its last home game to Elon shortly before Hofstra crushed Elon). I can't take those ESPN odds too seriously.

[dutchPride86]

Thanks for re-sharing that link Wags! Delaware Drexel tonight could turn out to be a critical game for us, and we should be rooting for Drexel. If Delaware can win at home tonight, we'd then need them to slip up either at home vs Northeastern or at Stony (both possible but not likely), otherwise Delaware would wind up at 12-6. Of course if Hofstra can win either of these games Delaware becomes irrelevant. As for Towson, if we don't win at UNCW safe to assume they wouldn't either, so that's their 7th loss.

On the ESPN odds... its just a computer spitting out percentages based on ESPNs BPI rankings and home court advantage factor. UNCW still ranked higher than Charleston (I'm sure the Kentucky win helps), so it gives us better chance at beating Charleston. Simple as that

[Wags]

Thanks for re-sharing that link Wags! Delaware Drexel tonight could turn out to be a critical game for us, and we should be rooting for Drexel. If Delaware can win at home tonight, we'd then need them to slip up either at home vs Northeastern or at Stony (both possible but not likely), otherwise Delaware would wind up at 12-6. Of course if Hofstra can win either of these games Delaware becomes irrelevant. As for Towson, if we don't win at UNCW safe to assume they wouldn't either, so that's their 7th loss.

UNCW still ranked higher than Charleston (I'm sure the Kentucky win helps)

But the Elon loss doesn't hurt? Whether it's BPI, NET, all of these tools are still very flawed.

[dutchPride86]

But the Elon loss doesn't hurt? Whether it's BPI, NET, all of these tools are still very flawed.

UNCW would be ranked that much higher had they won that game. We'd probably only be getting something like 20% in that case

[Wags]

But the Elon loss doesn't hurt? Whether it's BPI, NET, all of these tools are still very flawed.

UNCW would be ranked that much higher had they won that game. We'd probably only be getting something like 20% in that case

True, and I guess also because UNCW swept Charleston this year. But UNCW also lost at Stony Brook, where Charleston won. And despite that sweep, I think that this point in the season, the current seeds reflect what most people think, that Charleston probably really is the team to beat and UNCW second right now - which is where these ratings seem to fall short.

[EvanJ]

As someone else pointed out, we have to win at least one of our remaining two games to have a chance to finish in the top four and avoid playing in the CAAT until Sunday, March 10:

https://caasports.com/tournaments/?id=212

Here are the tiebreakers:

https://caasports.com/sports/2022/2/25/ ... 23020.aspx

What you said is realistically true, but not mathematically guaranteed. We have 11 wins. If Drexel beats Delaware and Stony Brook (the game against Northeastern is irrelevant) to finish with 12 or 13 wins, Towson loses to UNCW and North Carolina A&T to finish with 10 wins, Delaware loses to Drexel and Northeastern (the game against Stony Brook is irrelevant) to finish with 9 or 10 wins, Stony Brook loses to Drexel (the game against Delaware is irrelevant) to finish with 9 or 10 wins, and Monmouth loses to Hampton and/or Elon to finish with 9 or 10 wins, the 5 seed will have 10 wins. Our chance at losing twice and finishing in the top four is tiny, but it is possible. It might be possible to rearrange the games between Drexel, Delaware, and Stony Brook to make another combination of the 5 seed having 10 wins. We will know more after Drexel at Delaware tonight. If we assume that Drexel's last two games being easy means they could pass us even if they lose tonight, and/or we think that there is not much difference between the 3 and 4, we should root for Drexel so that we are 2 games above Delaware with the tiebreaker with 2 games left. There is no way for a tie with more than two teams to rank Delaware above us. In a four-way tie with Towson, Delaware, and Monmouth, we would be 2-1, Delaware and Monmouth would be 2-2, and Towson would be 2-3. We might not be the top team in a tiebreaker with Monmouth and one of Towson or Delaware (with UNCW, Charleston, Drexel, and one of Towson or Delaware above us), but if we are tied for fifth, we start in the same round regardless of the tiebreakers. Thank you for finding the tiebreakers.

[dutchPride86]

So the Delaware loss tonight made things a lot clearer. The easiest/simplest/best scenario left:

- Hofstra clinches a top 4 seed with 1 more win period.

Much more muddled if Hofstra loses both. In that case they still get top 4 IF:

- Both towson and Monmouth lose at least once (Towson finishes at uncw and both Monmouth games on road where they have 1-12 record)

OR

- IF Monmouth wins out, Hofstra needs both Towson to split and Delaware to win out so all 4 teams finish 11-7.

If Monmouth wins out and Delaware loses 1 more game, Hofstra would be out at 11-7 regardless of what Towson does. If towson wins out and hofstra loses both, Towson takes 4th outright

[cactus]

Campbell 105, UNCW 100 in 2 OT

[Wags]

Campbell 105, UNCW 100 in 2 OT

Was expecting Drexel at Delaware to be the better of the doubleheader and it turned to be an okay game and a 10-point Drexel win, but UNCW at Campbell was the game of the year in the CAA. A lot of big shots and big plays in the second half and in both overtimes.

Without playing tonight, Hofstra changed places twice only to end up back in the same place they started the night, and also temporarily lost and then ended up leading a tiebreaker against the same team, which won tonight.

Hofstra started in 3rd, ended up in 4th (and Drexel in 3rd), losing a two-way tiebreaker to Drexel after Drexel won at Delaware tonight.

When Campbell beat UNCW, Hofstra moved back into 3rd and Drexel back into 4th, with UNCW 2nd, in a three-way tie.

With UNCW's loss tonight, Charleston can clinch the CAA regular season title and the top seed in the CAA tournament by beating Campbell at home on Thursday night.

The good news for Hofstra is they have a very realistic shot at a 2 seed now. The bad news is they have to try to make that push first, against the team currently leading them for the 2 seed in a tiebreaker, in the toughest road environment in the conference, against a team that should be extremely angry and focused after the way it lost tonight.

[EvanJ]

Campbell blew a 17 point lead. UNCW led 10-8, and their next lead was in overtime. The announcer said UNCW's record is 39 points. Trazarien White scored 38, and with 4 seconds left, he missed a chance to have the first 40 point game in team history, and UNCW thought he was fouled. Anthony Dell'Orso led Campbell with 34 points on 13-22 shooting and 11 rebounds. Campbell lost their only game with Northeastern, so Campbell remains the 10 seed. Tonight had 16 Division I games that had a lot of action. 6 were decided by 3 points or fewer or in overtime, including Kansas State being up 25 with 13:30 left, going down 4, and becoming the first team to win seven overtime games in one season. In the last game to end, Mississippi Valley State defeated Prairie View A&M, which means that there are not any winless teams.

Edit: We have 2 points in the Mid Major Poll. Number 12 Charleston, Number 18 UNCW (who will probably fall next week after their loss last night), and us are the only CAA teams with points.

[Wags]

- IF Monmouth wins out, Hofstra needs both Towson to split and Delaware to win out so all 4 teams finish 11-7.

If Monmouth wins out and Delaware loses 1 more game, Hofstra would be out at 11-7 regardless of what Towson does. If towson wins out and hofstra loses both, Towson takes 4th outright

The way things may work out on Thursday and elsewhere on Saturday, I have a feeling we're going to be keeping a close eye on Delaware at Stony Brook on Saturday, rooting for the Blue Hens win, hoping for a four-way tie that could make it: (4) Hofstra, (5) Delaware, (6) Monmouth, (7) Towson, (8) Stony Brook rather than a Stony Brook win and a three-way tie yielding: (4) Monmouth, (5) Hofstra, (6) Towson, (7) Stony Brook, (8) Delaware,

Can't really count on anything though, especially with Monmouth being 1-12 on the road, UNCW losing to Elon at home last week, Hofstra playing better, but potentially, that Delaware-Stony Brook could be the game to watch after Hofstra's done.

Hofstra plays at 2 pm on Saturday, Delaware at Stony Brook right after, at 4 pm.