MBB Game 29 Elon, Feb. 24 (Sat), 7 PM

[Jojogunne]

Saturday is our final home game of the season. Do we still call it Senior Day, or is it Graduate Day or something else? Whatever the name, we will honor the three most senior members of our roster: Jacco Fritz, Tyler Thomas and Bryce Washington, all graduate students.

On the court, we will host Elon, one of the hottest teams in the CAA. Although the Phoenix have a losing record (12-15, 5-9), they also have back-to-back wins over Delaware and UNCW. They play at Northeastern tomorrow (Thursday).

Max Mackinnon, CAA POW and last year's ROY, and TK Simpkins lead Elon in scoring with 13 ppg. Rob Higgins is a close third, with 11 ppg.

MSG and FloHoops will carry the game.

[Wags]

Saturday is our final home game of the season. Do we still call it Senior Day, or is it Graduate Day or something else?

Senior Night, which is pretty cool for a change instead of Senior Day. Should help the atmosphere I think.

[EvanJ]

We rarely play Saturday home games at night, but we hosted Towson at night for CBS Sports Network, and I do not know if this game had to be a night game to get on MSG. All seven CAA games on Saturday or Monday will be on TV, with three on CBS Sports Network. Our game will be the only Saturday CAA game starting after 2:00 P.M.

[Jojogunne]

Yeah, but they're not seniors.

[Wags]

Yeah, but they're not seniors.

Yeah but I think they still call it Senior (Day/Night) in cases like this.

I hope they don't forget about Plotnikov, who has been extremely efficient whether they get him more shots or not. They will need him in the last two regular road games and in DC. To build into that, they should also allow him to do his thing in this game against Elon too.

He's shooting 19/23 (82.6%!) over his last four games, but because of the way they've used him (and not used him), he's alternated two very impactful games and two not so impactful games over that stretch:

20 pts on 8/9 fg (4/5 from 3) at NC A&T
5 pts on 2/2 fg in only 16 min at Drexel
20 pts on 7/9 fg (4/5 from 3) vs. Northeastern
4 pts on 2/3 fg vs. Drexel

Going back a little further:
17 pts on 6/9 fg (4/5 from 3) vs. Stony Brook
15 pts on 6/7 fg vs. W&M

This is what they brought him in for, to efficiently provide some complementary scoring punch. They don't need to feature him (that's for Thomas and Dubar), but they need to heavily involve him on a consistent basis because he has often been very efficient whether he's been given small or larger shot volume. And of course, his energy is always a plus. He is their x-factor and they need to ensure that they keep him relevant from this point.

By the way, Hofstra is not only 9-2 this year when Plotnikov has started (and 8-9 otherwise), but they're 6-0 this season when he scores in double figures (11-11 otherwise).

[EvanJ]

https://gohofstra.com/news/2024/2/23/me ... -push.aspx is our preview titled "Pride Closes Home Slate Looking To Continue Last Season Push."

https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/side ... game29.pdf is our Game Notes.

https://elonphoenix.com/news/2024/2/23/ ... fstra.aspx is Elon's preview titled "Men’s Basketball Closes Out Road Trip at Hofstra." Since they don't know Dubar's name, it could be good that we are at home for our announcers to say it. They called him Darlington Dunbar.

https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/side ... ofstra.pdf is Elon's Game Notes.

https://elonphoenix.com/sports/mens-bas ... ath=mbball has Elon's statistics.

Here is the CAA schedule with lines, over/under, and KenPom predictions. The last two games are on Monday, so they do not have lines, and games on Saturday and Sunday could slightly change KenPom's predictions.

Hampton at Northeastern at 12:00 P.M. on NESN+
Northeastern has favored by 10.5 with an over/under of 144.5, which makes a score of 72.5-62.
KenPom predicts Northeastern to win 80-68 with an 86 percent chance of winning.

Charleston at Towson at 12:00 P.M. on CBS Sports Network
Charleston is favored by 1.5 with an over/under of 143.5, which makes a score of 72.5-71.
KenPom predicts Towson to win 71-70 with a 53 percent chance of winning. For the second consecutive day of CAA games, KenPom predicted a different winner than the line for one of the games.

William & Mary at Stony Brook at 1:00 P.M. on SNY
Stony Brook is favored by 8.5 with an over/under of 138.5, which makes a score of 73.5-65.
KenPom predicts Stony Brook to win 76-66 with an 82 percent chance of winning.

North Carolina A&T at Monmouth at 2:00 P.M. on NBC Sports Philadelphia
Monmouth is favored by 12.5 with an over/under of 145.5, which makes a score of 79-66.5.
KenPom predicts Monmouth to win 80-66 with an 89 percent chance of winning.
https://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=485924 will have statistics.

Elon at Hofstra at 7:00 P.M. on MSG
We are favored by 13.5 with an over/under of 142.5, which makes a score of 78-64.5.
KenPom predicts us to win 79-66 with an 89 percent chance of winning.

Drexel at Delaware on Monday at 6:30 P.M. on CBS Sports Network
KenPom predicts Delaware to win 69-68 with a 54 percent chance of winning.
https://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=484188 will have statistics.

UNCW at Campbell on Monday at 8:30 P.M. on CBS Sports Network
KenPom predicts UNCW to win 76-68 with a 79 percent chance of winning.
https://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=483779 will have statistics.

[The Shadow]

According to ESPN, HU has a 94% chance of winning with a 13.5 point spread.

[triplec2195]

Imagine that and lets hope we have a good size lead at halftime. What we don't want is to keep them hanging around for a buzzer beater.

[Polito]

HU should beat Elon by 15 at home at this point in season. Let's go, TCB.

I'll be there with a sizable crew - last home game of the year, looking forward to a good showing, good crowd, and a win to send them off to the biggest games in the entire conf that will literally determine the top 4.

It's been encouraging to see them continuing to fight, and really pleased to see the stronger D showing up. They've held their own for the most part at home. The challenge is on the road, and unfortunately, that doesn't bode well for next week or the CAAT. Will find out the truth vs W and CofC.

But for now, let's get this last feel-good win at home to go on the road on a high.

[EvanJ]

https://defiantlydutch.blogspot.com/202 ... fstra.html is Jerry Beach's "I'll Be Quirky: Not Twitter Guy at Hofstra." We won our last four games in which we scored 70, which is our longest streak of that since we won five consecutive games when scoring under 70 from November 24 to December 13, 2008. The streak is allowed to have games when we scored 70+ mixed in. Dubar moved up four spots to 23rd with 1,230 points, and has 10 fewer than Roberto Gittens. Thomas moved up three spots in 28th with 1,203 points, and has 16 fewer than Aaron Estrada, 17 fewer than Demetrius Dudley and John Mills, and 22 fewer than Carlos Rivera. Washington played 16 minutes while all of his statistics were zeroes. He became the third player this season to play that many minutes with all zeroes, and our first player to play at least 10 minutes with all zeroes from 2010-2011 to now.

On Thursday, CBS Sports Network pointed out that we are the only school to have two players score at least 1,000 for us and at least 1,000 for another school. Juan'ya Green and Thomas did that.

In the last two seasons, we had a player score 40 against Elon. Estrada did it in an 82-65 at Elon on January 26, 2023, and Omar Silverio did in 30 minutes it off the bench in a 97-64 win at Elon on February 15, 2022.

https://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=484939 will have statistics. For now, it has rosters and statistics. Elon has 15 players, including 8 guards, 6 forwards, and 1 center. Normally more than 8/15ths of a team's players are guards. One of them has not played, and the other 14 played at least 4 games. 11 players played in at least 16 of 28 games, so they have depth. Here is a comparison of eleven statistics with us first:

Points per game: 74.5, 74.1
Field goal percentage: .471, .453
Three-point field goal percentage: .371, .359
Free throw percentage: .742, .709
Rebounds per game: 32.9, 33.8
Offensive rebounds per game: 7.7, 10.3
Blocked shots per game: 3.7, 2.8
Steals per game: 5.9, 6.3
Assists per game: 15.4, 13.2
Turnovers per game: 10.5, 11.6
Assists/turnovers: 1.47, 1.13

Elon shoots threes better than average, and we do not defend them well. They do not defend twos well, rebound well, or block many shots, so Fritz and Sunday should be able to contribute.

The rest of today's CAA games are over. Northeastern led by 26 and won 70-62 hosting Hampton. Charleston won 72-56 at Towson. Stony Brook won 75-62 hosting William & Mary. Monmouth won 83-67 hosting North Carolina A&T.

Edit: https://www.flohoops.com/live/87706 has video. I probably will not post during the game.

[Wags]

26-8, Hofstra after spotting Elon an early 7-2 lead.

Carlos 8 pts, Dubar and Fritz 6 each, Plotnikov 5.

[Wags]

44-24, Hofstra at the U4.

42-17, Pride since the early going.

[dutchPride86]

Man imagine if Hofstra could actually rebound like this against better teams... what a sight tonight!

[Wags]

Man imagine if Hofstra could actually rebound like this against better teams... what a sight tonight!

It helps when you play a team that has only one double-digit height number on the right side of the dash (after 6-).

Of course, Hofstra only has two over 6-9 themselves but Elon looks like a high school team with a lot of their roster.

[dutchPride86]

Good job all around taking care of business tonight. Yes Elon clearly outclassed, but - that team was good enough to pull an upset at UNCW last week, and Hofstra wasn't playing well enough to blow anyone out a month ago. Feels like everyone has finally settled into their roles.

On to the real tests, we'll learn if this is fool's gold or not real quick next week. Get 1 and top 4 should be a near lock, lose both and probably gonna really have to sweat it out

[EvanJ]

We won 87-64. Jayden Henriquez banked in a three for his first career points. We ended with him, Sunday, Plotnikov, Robinson, and Farmer playing. We used ten players, and our only scoreless player was Sunday, who did not shoot. Thomas led all players with 25 points. He shot 9-26 from twos 4-12 and threes 5-14. He had 7 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 steals. Dubar had 17 points from twos 6-6 and threes 1-6. He had 9 rebounds and 3 assists. Fritz had the only double-double on either team with 14 points and 10 rebounds. Plotnikov shot 5-6 to score 11. Carlos had 8 points, 4 rebounds, and 9 assists. Robinson, Washington, Farmer, and Henriquez each made 1 three and no other shots. A majority of our field goal attempts were threes, 35 of 68.

TK Simpkins scored 1 fewer than Thomas. His 24 points included shooting free throws 10-10. He had 6 rebounds and 4 assists. He entered averaging 12.3 points. He was their only double-digit scorer. Max Mackinnon shot 3-14 to score 9, and had 5 rebounds. Sam Sherry had 7 points and 8 rebounds. They used 13 players. Of their nine players who shot, all of them made half or fewer of their field goals except for Deandre Smart, who made 1 three and did not attempt any other shots.

We shot field goals better .485 to .353, threes better .371 to .321, twos better .606 to .391, and free throws worse .727 to .826. We had 17 more field goal attempts, and 12 fewer free throw attempts. Elon shot threes .391 until they missed their last 5. We had more rebounds 42 to 30. We had more offensive rebounds 14 to 7, and more second chance points 19-11. We had fewer bench points 19 to 12, and even with four subs playing the last 3:16, our bench played only 36 minutes. We had more assists 25 to 8, and fewer turnovers 9 to 13. At one point, each team committed two turnovers in 18 seconds. We had more fouls 20 to 12. Carlos and Fritz committed 4, and nobody else on either team committed more than 3. We dominated points in the paint 32 to 14, and had more fast break points 7 to 4. We had fewer blocks 1 to 3, and more steals 8 to 4. Dubar had our only block.

Carlos (9), Plotnikov (5), Thomas (4), Dubar (3), and Washington (3) had at least 3 assists. It is the first time from 2010-2011 to now that we had at least five players have at least 3 assists against a Division I team. We had five players do that against John Jay on December 12, 2021, and against Rosemont on December 22, 2018. I hope to look at box scores to check farther back than 2010-2011.

Here are analytics leaders. In efficiency, Dubar led with 25, TK Simpkins had 22, and Thomas had 19. In game score, Simpkins had 17.9, Dubar had 17.3, and Thomas had 14.9. In net points, Thomas had 17.7, Simpkins had 12.6, and Sam Sherry had 2.1. The rest of our players were negative. Farmer and Henriquez were -0.1, and the next best by a player who played a lot was -2.2 by Dubar. We had +1.3 net points with only one positive player, and that must be very rare. Elon had -13.0 net points. Net points is not plus-minus.

The CAA's five games today were not close. Four were decided by at least 13, and Northeastern won by 8 after leading by 25 with 10 minutes left. The only CAA player to score more than Thomas and Simpkins was North Carolina A&T's Landon Glasper, who scored 27. Xander Rice scored only 12.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KZ-yPCMyaM is highlights.

[cactus]

They can beat anyone when they play like they did tonight. Let's go on a run

Sent from my Pixel 8 using Tapatalk

[EvanJ]

I found the previous time we had at least five players with at least 3 assists against a Division I team. It was an 82-57 win at William & Mary on February 20, 2006. I remember that game because it was the last Monday of the regular season, and it was the only CAA game that day because W&M and us had 1 fewer game played. That was 585 games ago, and I did not check how many of them were against Division I teams.

Edit: https://gohofstra.com/sports/mens-baske ... core/12798 is the box score. The attendance was 2,613, which is bad for Senior Night, and it was the last time to see at least of two players who have the second most points per game by teammates as of a couple of weeks ago and probably still now. We sold out Charles Jenkins's senior day with 5,050 fans, and that team was about equally as good as we are now.

https://gohofstra.com/news/2024/2/24/me ... -elon.aspx is our recap titled "Seniors Shine As Hofstra Routs Elon." Fritz had his first double-double of the season. In career points for us, Dubar moved up to 22nd, and Thomas moved up to 24th.

https://elonphoenix.com/news/2024/2/24/ ... fstra.aspx is Elon's recap titled "Elon Falls at Hofstra."

[Wags]

Good job all around taking care of business tonight. Yes Elon clearly outclassed, but - that team was good enough to pull an upset at UNCW last week

I look at this another way for Hofstra, not related to how Hofstra took care of business tonight but related to their next game. It's going to be a very tough challenge just to steal one of the two on this last road trip, but if this normally bad Elon team was good enough to win at UNCW, who's to say Hofstra can't win there?

[Wags]

https://twitter.com/speeddeamon/status/ ... 6482451663