MBB Game 11 Norfolk State, Dec 16 (Sat), 2 PM EST

[Wags]

The attendance was 1,969, which is not good for a weekend that is the only home game this month.

Considerably higher though if we count the ugly sweaters.

[Wags]

And nice to see Bryce bounce back and actually finish around the basket.

He, not Thomas, was at the postgame conference and was given the game ball in the locker room today.

[triplec2195]

We know he plays D but had a nice O game today and is always on the move and can back door you at any moment if you're not keeping track of him.

[Wags]

Hofstra is now 52-1 over the past 11 seasons when allowing under 60 points (won the last 48). The Pride is also 106-19 (.848) over the past 10 seasons when allowing under 70 points (30-4 under Speedy).

[Polito]

Great stat wags, 60 one is pretty obvious to me as nearly any team should have a super record holding that low, but the 70 one is a bit more meaningful to me as that number is much more common - I really appreciate that this program really values D under Speedy


As for the game, good to get the win and bounce back - two awful halves in a row, which I really don’t like, but they played more proper in the second to close it out relatively comfortably

Great to see Washington finally step up with a really good game and FINISH - team really benefits when he is actually effective - maximizes his experience and maturity - pls keep it up now

NSU isn’t a very good team, despite all the coach speak, but a game HU needed to win, so you grab that w and keep it moving


Thought the post game interview was even better, some of them are a complete waste of time and almost incoherent - another issue for another day/thread - but this was good, some decent feedback - I usually enjoy JCs perspective, learning from mistakes

The nagging negative for me is this team is really inconsistent in performance - still too wide of a spectrum of play

Agree on your points dp86 - first half play was ridiculous at this point at home vs a marginal mid major - also fully agree this team hasn’t played to its full potential yet

They absolutely have a other gear to reach, which could be so good if / when they do, just not sure yet if they will this season…

Nice OOC opportunity coming up - UNLV is also Jekyll and Hide, some bad losses and a recent top 10 takedown - let’s take that 2nd half on the road!

[Wags]

60 one is pretty obvious to me as nearly any team should have a super record holding that low, but the 70 one is a bit more meaningful to me as that number is much more common - I really appreciate that this program really values D under Speedy

Gorchov posted this one, so thanks to him for those stats. He's great with those (on par with Evan, haha!) I had the same takeaway on this - you should win allowing <60, nevertheless only the single loss instead of a few losses out of those 53 times is impressive. And yeah, the more meaningful one, to win 85% of the time over the past decade allowing under 70 and to have 28% of the 125 times <70 (34 times, at an even higher clip - 88%) being in the last 2 1/3-ish seasons under Speedy does say a lot about how they value D under Speedy.

Thought the post game interview was even better, some of them are a complete waste of time and almost incoherent - another issue for another day/thread - but this was good, some decent feedback - I usually enjoy JCs perspective, learning from mistakes

I asked Speedy if the message was similar at halftime (before they came out 10-1 to start the second half) as it was during that quick timeout at 5-0 a little over two minutes in and he gave some good perspective on that. Later, I asked JC about the recent back-to-back high (for him) TO games and his mindset of keeping those lose going into yesterday and his 10 ast, one TO game yesterday, and I agree with you, I thought he gave some good feedback on that. I forgot to ask him one other question though - if he recalled ever making a 3 and assisting on one on the same trip before, whether in high school or college. That was a huge turning point - Tyyler had just broken a 44-44 tie on a 3 and then JC hit a left-wing 3 to make it a six-point game but there was a foul away from the ball on Jamraii Thomas, so HU kept possession and four seconds later, JC inbounded from the baseline to Thomas, who hit a right-wing 3. In only four seconds, it went from 47-44 to 53-44 and they never looked back from there, getting up to 17 and winning by 16, with NSU never getting closer than 10.

They absolutely have a other gear to reach, which could be so good if / when they do, just not sure yet if they will this season…

Especially after last year's up-and-down OOC play followed by 16-2 and a 1 seed, I'm sticking with my same annual barometer for now - the one-third mark (six games) into CAA play before guessing how the seeding may shake out at the end of February and seeing who the legit contenders will be in DC.

As for the end of OOC play, Saturday will be very interesting. Will the adrenaline and excitement of making their UBS debut against of all local teams, St, John's, override the very difficult physical demands of playing in Vegas on a Thursday night and tipping at noon near home on Saturday?

[The Shadow]

Wags, Isn't UNLV on this Thursday, December 21st, and SJU on Saturday December 30th? There is over a week in between games. Also, doesn't SJU begin Big East games (Xavier and UConn) before the HU game?

[Wags]

Wags, Isn't UNLV on this Thursday, December 21st, and SJU on Saturday December 30th? There is over a week in between games. Also, doesn't SJU begin Big East games (Xavier and UConn) before the HU game?

Ha, you're right. I was thinking the St. John's game was next Saturday, not the following one! I guess I was too excited about that one myself that I moved it up in my head - which makes no sense because I was talking with people at yesterday's game about the St. John's game "in two weeks!"

[Wags]

It gets overlooked because Thomas led all scorers with 22 pts, had 14 in the second half, and they won by 16, but I still think they need a better mix of mid-range shots and getting to the line along with the 3s, especially from their two best scorers.

Thomas was okay at best (5/14) and Dubar not so great (3/10) from 3 yesterday (after Dubar was lights out from there at Duke).

I think because they can get really hot from 3 often, they continue to over-rely on the 3 on days when they're not falling. 14 of Thomas' 17 shots were from 3 and 10 of Dubar's 14 shots were from 3 yesterday. So, 24 of their 31 combined shots (77%) from 3 - not really what you want to see when they combine for only 8/24 (33%) from 3. If that were closer to 40% or better from 3, shoot them all you want. But when you're not making that many, look for other ways to score. In Thomas' case, 5/14 (35.7%) isn't a bad clip but it's far from lights out and doesn't warrant all but three of 17 FGA coming from there. And even Bryyce yesterday, who got the game ball for his 13 pts largely on his 4/4 shooting from 2, his three asts and 2 stls, took too many 3s for what he was actually hitting from there (5 of his 9 shots were from 3 despite not missing from 2 while going only 1/5 from 3).

That all works fine at home against Norfolk State, but will it work at UNLV, against St. John's, or much more importantly in CAA play?

Of course, it's also taking what the defense is giving you and maybe the 3s are all that are often there, but I don't think it's only that - I think sometimes they look for that first or settle for that when they could do that just a little bit less and score in other ways just a little bit more. If they can do that, they do have the offensive talent overall to be very dangerous in CAA play and in DC.

It's about efficiency. Many guys can score if given the opportunities, but who can do so efficiently is what separates and wins (along with getting stops at the other end).

I always look at PPS (Points Per Shot) for efficiency. I actually would love to see that stat as part of every basketball box score. To me, nothing measures scoring efficiency better than that (and of course, the more you score at the line, you can improve the PPS without even getting more FGA up).

Some of yesterday's key PPS numbers:
Thomas 1.29 PPS (22 pts on 17 shots)
Dubar 0.93 (13 pts on 14 shots)
Washington 1.44 (13 pts on 9 shots) - a pretty good PPS number because of his perfect 2-pt shooting, not his poor 3-pt. shooting.
Carlos 2.50 (10 pts on only 4 shots even though 3 of his 4 were from 3 and he only went 1/3 from 3; but 5/6 at the line to get his 10 pts gave him a very efficient 2.50 PPS - that along with the 10 ast & 1 TO is why I thought he was the real player of the game)
Fritz 2.25 (9 pts on a perfect 4/4 fg)

If this is going to be an efficient offense, I think they need their top two scorers (TT and DD) closer to 1.50 PPS this year.
Through yesterday this season, Thomas is at 1.29 PPS (252 pts on 200 FGA) and Dubar is closer, at 1.41 PPS (196 pts on 139 FGA).

[cactus]

The attendance was 1,969, which is not good for a weekend that is the only home game this month.

About as empty/quiet at tip as I can remember recently

[HU87]

Some of yesterday's key PPS numbers:
Thomas 1.29 PPS (22 pts on 17 shots)
Dubar 0.93 (13 pts on 14 shots)
Washington 1.44 (13 pts on 9 shots) - a pretty good PPS number because of his perfect 2-pt shooting, not his poor 3-pt. shooting.
Carlos 2.50 (10 pts on only 4 shots even though 3 of his 4 were from 3 and he only went 1/3 from 3; but 5/6 at the line to get his 10 pts gave him a very efficient 2.50 PPS - that along with the 10 ast & 1 TO is why I thought he was the real player of the game)
Fritz 2.25 (9 pts on a perfect 4/4 fg)

If this is going to be an efficient offense, I think they need their top two scorers (TT and DD) closer to 1.50 PPS this year.
Through yesterday this season, Thomas is at 1.29 PPS (252 pts on 200 FGA) and Dubar is closer, at 1.41 PPS (196 pts on 139 FGA).

Love this analysis-- great stuff.

I share that worry about having enough firepower this year to be considered a real contender for the CAA championship. The efficiency numbers are a great way to look at it... being more efficient in our offense could compensate for the lack of depth of scorers.

Another way to increase our chances would be to project KJ as more of a contributor as the season goes on... If he can grow into an 8-10 ppg scorer off the bench, this team's composition gets really interesting.

[Wags]

Some of yesterday's key PPS numbers:
Thomas 1.29 PPS (22 pts on 17 shots)
Dubar 0.93 (13 pts on 14 shots)
Washington 1.44 (13 pts on 9 shots) - a pretty good PPS number because of his perfect 2-pt shooting, not his poor 3-pt. shooting.
Carlos 2.50 (10 pts on only 4 shots even though 3 of his 4 were from 3 and he only went 1/3 from 3; but 5/6 at the line to get his 10 pts gave him a very efficient 2.50 PPS - that along with the 10 ast & 1 TO is why I thought he was the real player of the game)
Fritz 2.25 (9 pts on a perfect 4/4 fg)

If this is going to be an efficient offense, I think they need their top two scorers (TT and DD) closer to 1.50 PPS this year.
Through yesterday this season, Thomas is at 1.29 PPS (252 pts on 200 FGA) and Dubar is closer, at 1.41 PPS (196 pts on 139 FGA).

Another way to increase our chances would be to project KJ as more of a contributor as the season goes on... If he can grow into an 8-10 ppg scorer off the bench, this team's composition gets really interesting.

Much smaller sample of course, but he's at 1.26 PPS (53 pts on 42 shots) this season - pretty close to Thomas' 1.29 PPS.

[EvanJ]

The problem with PPS is it punishes guys who don't attempt many free throws. Estrada averaged 1.25 PPS last season in part because he only attempted 3.03 free throws per game. To compare, Justin Wright-Foreman attempted 5.89 free throws per game as a senior. Thomas attempts 2.91 free throws per game, but Carlos leads us in attempts, and our top three players attempt enough that our team attempts per game is up from 12.14 last season to 13.09 this season, which is still the seventh lowest in Division I. Last season only Penn State attempted fewer free throws per game. I wish there was a statistic of missed free throws per game that would make us look great.

[Wags]

The problem with PPS is it punishes guys who don't attempt many free throws. Estrada averaged 1.25 PPS last season in part because he only attempted 3.03 free throws per game. To compare, Justin Wright-Foreman attempted 5.89 free throws per game as a senior. Thomas attempts 2.91 free throws per game, but Carlos leads us in attempts, and our top three players attempt enough that our team attempts per game is up from 12.14 last season to 13.09 this season, which is still the seventh lowest in Division I. Last season only Penn State attempted fewer free throws per game. I wish there was a statistic of missed free throws per game that would make us look great.

True, but I think that good, efficient scorers should be able to get their points without volume shooting and in different ways, from inside and outside the arc, and at the line. I also think that in the long run, if a player is efficient rather then merely scoring on volume shooting, it will show up even if they don’t get to the line as much as others - especially with how much a lot of guys shoot the 3 today. So, if they’re scoring efficiently, including 3s, that’ll obviously increase the PPS even if they aren’t taking many FTs.

But maybe looking at both total PPS and also FG-only PPS (excluding FTs) is a good way to measure efficiency. The former rewards players for getting to the line and making FTs and the latter provides better comparisons of what players are doing efficiency-wise from the floor only so as not to punish the low FTA players in the comparisons.