Estrada @ Alabama

Forum for all Hofstra sports discussion
Wags
Posts: 4662
Joined: Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:15 pm

Re: Estrada @ Alabama

Post by Wags »

triplec2195 wrote: Tue Dec 19, 2023 7:46 pm That PPS stat I never heard off but a further microscopic stat that has serious relevance kind of giving more detailed clarity to shooting percentages. A kid can score 20 a game compared to a kid scoring 15 but does he have to take that many more shots to get those extra 5 points. A good stat IMO in a world full of crazy analytics.
You don't really see it. It's something I thought about before seeing it out there but a quick Google search shows that PPS is looked at by others too. Some use Effective FG%, which accounts for 3s as well as 2s made. The EFG% formula is (FGM + 0.5 * 3PM) / FGA. Kind of similar, but I like using PPS (including FTM) and let's call it True PPS (excluding FTM), like in the above examples with Sears and Estrada. I just want to know, how much did someone score and how many shots did it take to get there? Are they truly efficient or only scoring more because they're getting significantly more opportunities, perhaps more chances that could go to someone else who shoots fairly often with a higher PPS? I use 1.50 as pretty good rule of thumb - so if someone's scoring 30 pts on 20 shots (1.50 PPS) or 20 pts on 13 shots (1.54 PPS), that's pretty efficient and very valuable. But if someone is taking 18 shots to get to 20 points (1.11), maybe a staff can say, "Hmm, maybe we can give that guy around 13 shots and give those other five shots to others who may be more efficient in small doses." Hard to say since these things all fluctuate for each player, from game to game. But then, that's what averages are for, just as average PPS or average True PPS could be used. Bottom line though, and the reason I look at this ratio is, who's getting the most out of shots rather than simply putting them up and maybe hurting their team with too many misses?

A few times Hofstra home games I was covering in the Jenkins era, I tracked Hofstra's passes on every possession because I had a feeling that good things (which I considered to be a basket or drawing FTA whether those were made or not) resulted with more passes and bad things (which I considered to be an empty trip with no points, whether from missed shots of TOs) happened with fewer passes. Sure enough, when they passed X number of times in the front court (I think it was 3 or more), "good things" happened at a way higher rate than when they didn't (I think it was 2 passes or less).
triplec2195
Posts: 4830
Joined: Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:08 am

Re: Estrada @ Alabama

Post by triplec2195 »

Wags wrote: A few times Hofstra home games I was covering in the Jenkins era, I tracked Hofstra's passes on every possession because I had a feeling that good things (which I considered to be a basket or drawing FTA whether those were made or not) resulted with more passes and bad things (which I considered to be an empty trip with no points, whether from missed shots of TOs) happened with fewer passes. Sure enough, when they passed X number of times in the front court (I think it was 3 or more), "good things" happened at a way higher rate than when they didn't (I think it was 2 passes or less).

This sounds like a line out of the movie Hoosiers where Gene Hackman preaches over and over to his team "How many times are we going to pass the ball before we take a shot, HOW MANY?? Really funny stuff but true!! Yes 3X
JoeyBagODonuts1
Posts: 37
Joined: Fri May 05, 2023 12:30 pm

Re: Estrada @ Alabama

Post by JoeyBagODonuts1 »

On the other hand, there were some really bad teams during the second VBK era that never brought the ball to the basket until they made at least 3 passes outside the key.
Hofstra Football. Undefeated since 2009!
EvanJ
Posts: 4139
Joined: Sat Sep 06, 2014 2:39 pm
Contact:

Re: Estrada @ Alabama

Post by EvanJ »

Wags wrote: Tue Dec 19, 2023 9:22 pm A few times Hofstra home games I was covering in the Jenkins era, I tracked Hofstra's passes on every possession because I had a feeling that good things (which I considered to be a basket or drawing FTA whether those were made or not) resulted with more passes and bad things (which I considered to be an empty trip with no points, whether from missed shots of TOs) happened with fewer passes. Sure enough, when they passed X number of times in the front court (I think it was 3 or more), "good things" happened at a way higher rate than when they didn't (I think it was 2 passes or less).
I'm impressed that you counted passes. I would never try to take notes while at a game or watching live from home, and video of games can miss a little bit. Furthermore, you have to decide how to handle situations like if X tries to pass to Y, the pass gets past Y, and Z gets it; when the ball unintentionally gets from one teammate to another by being knocked loose; or when it takes multiple passes to get the ball across midcourt.

Estrada improved his percentage shooting threes to .400. His problem is shooting twos .474, compared to .557 for his two seasons with us. His rebounds per minute are up slightly from last season, and his assists per minute are down slightly from last season.

For guys on top conferences, poor shooting sometimes gets ignored. An example is Cam Reddish, who played for Duke in 2018-2019, and was taken tenth in the NBA Draft after one season. He was teammates with R.J. Barrett and Zion Williamson, as Duke had three of the first ten picks. Reddish shot threes .333, which is average. He shot twos .394, which is horrible. His 3.7 rebounds and 1.9 assists were not impressive. He averaged 13.5 points. Even ignoring mid-majors, I'm sure there were plenty of other guys from top conferences who scored more with better shooting and declared for the draft. In the NBA, Reddish has career averages of 9.9 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 1.3 assists. His points make him a significant contributor, but are not great by the standards of a top ten pick, and he is on his fourth team in five seasons.
Wags
Posts: 4662
Joined: Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:15 pm

Re: Estrada @ Alabama

Post by Wags »

EvanJ wrote: Wed Dec 20, 2023 4:10 pm
Wags wrote: Tue Dec 19, 2023 9:22 pm A few times Hofstra home games I was covering in the Jenkins era, I tracked Hofstra's passes on every possession because I had a feeling that good things (which I considered to be a basket or drawing FTA whether those were made or not) resulted with more passes and bad things (which I considered to be an empty trip with no points, whether from missed shots of TOs) happened with fewer passes. Sure enough, when they passed X number of times in the front court (I think it was 3 or more), "good things" happened at a way higher rate than when they didn't (I think it was 2 passes or less).
I'm impressed that you counted passes. I would never try to take notes while at a game or watching live from home, and video of games can miss a little bit. Furthermore, you have to decide how to handle situations like if X tries to pass to Y, the pass gets past Y, and Z gets it; when the ball unintentionally gets from one teammate to another by being knocked loose; or when it takes multiple passes to get the ball across midcourt.
The passes that were counted were only front court passes since that was the real point of the exercise.
Polito
Posts: 3683
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2014 3:42 pm
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: Estrada @ Alabama

Post by Polito »

Just saw Bama highlights tonight... they beat Auburn. AE is the 2nd leading scorer on the team, but had a DONUT in this game - now sure how he can score zero playing the minutes he does, that's bad. And the one highlight they showed of him was him getting the ball stolen for an easy bucket on the other end- yikes.

But overall it's good to hear he's playing up. The Sears kid he plays with is a baller. Hopefully they go far, would love to see AE in the big dance, maybe he can show out there.
dutchPride86
Posts: 321
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2022 8:51 pm

Re: Estrada @ Alabama

Post by dutchPride86 »

Polito wrote: Thu Jan 25, 2024 1:08 am Just saw Bama highlights tonight... they beat Auburn. AE is the 2nd leading scorer on the team, but had a DONUT in this game - now sure how he can score zero playing the minutes he does, that's bad. And the one highlight they showed of him was him getting the ball stolen for an easy bucket on the other end- yikes.

But overall it's good to hear he's playing up. The Sears kid he plays with is a baller. Hopefully they go far, would love to see AE in the big dance, maybe he can show out there.
Watched them a few times this year including tonight...Sears is a super ball dominant guard and Oates has Estrada standing in the corner like he's a 3 and D guy. Estrada hasn't looked comfortable in that system to me at all, but his numbers before tonight were decent.

Despite not being ranked (though they likely move in after beating auburn) the metrics LOVE bama, they're top 10 in both kenpom and the NET.
triplec2195
Posts: 4830
Joined: Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:08 am

Re: Estrada @ Alabama

Post by triplec2195 »

I watched this game for a while and Estrada at times was the PG. He definitely is a pass first player by design setting everyone else up but only is averaging about 4 assists a game. He only played 17 minutes last night but averages 28 minutes a game. Sears is definitely the scorer and is a super quick guard.
Polito
Posts: 3683
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2014 3:42 pm
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: Estrada @ Alabama

Post by Polito »

Agree completely dp86, right on the money. It's not the ideal use of him. To his credit he has managed and is obviously an impact player on a quality SEC team. And he's making himself some money, so it's all good. But he'd be better off with a different strategy.

Perhaps something we can use to our advantage in trying to convince Dubar to stay. As he said, grass isn't always greener, even if the money is.

I'm rooting for AE and Bama, hope they go far!
EvanJ
Posts: 4139
Joined: Sat Sep 06, 2014 2:39 pm
Contact:

Re: Estrada @ Alabama

Post by EvanJ »

In a 109-92 win at LSU, Estrada, Mark Sears, and Latrell Wrightsell Jr. had at least 15 points, at least 6 rebounds, and at least 4 assists. It was the first time from 2010-2011 to now that three Alabama teammates did that, and we have not had three teammates do that in that time either. There is not a way of finding out about any three teammates doing that without checking 362 teams one at a time. Estrada was fifth on his team with 15 points. It was the first time from 2010-2011 to now that Alabama had at least five players score at least 15 points, and we have not had three teammates do that in that time either. LSU had the game's leading scorer with 24. At halftime he had 22, so I assumed he would exceed his career-high of 29, but he scored 2 in the second half.
EvanJ
Posts: 4139
Joined: Sat Sep 06, 2014 2:39 pm
Contact:

Re: Estrada @ Alabama

Post by EvanJ »

Number 13 Alabama won 98-93 in overtime hosting Number 24 Florida. While up 1, Alabama missed, and Estrada got the offensive rebound by the basket and scored to go up 3. Florida missed a three, fouled with 0.5 seconds left, and Alabama made 2 free throws for the final score. Estrada had 20 points from 9-14 shooting, 8 rebounds, 8 assists, and 3 steals.
dutchPride86
Posts: 321
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2022 8:51 pm

Re: Estrada @ Alabama

Post by dutchPride86 »

EvanJ wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2024 10:27 pm Number 13 Alabama won 98-93 in overtime hosting Number 24 Florida. While up 1, Alabama missed, and Estrada got the offensive rebound by the basket and scored to go up 3. Florida missed a three, fouled with 0.5 seconds left, and Alabama made 2 free throws for the final score. Estrada had 20 points from 9-14 shooting, 8 rebounds, 8 assists, and 3 steals.

Big time showing in front of another national TV audience. He scored or assisted on every Bama made FG in OT
Wags
Posts: 4662
Joined: Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:15 pm

Re: Estrada @ Alabama

Post by Wags »

This was a good game and part of a great SEC doubleheader on ESPN. Great atmospheres at Alabama and at LSU (where the Tigers upset Kentucky by one on a bucket at the buzzer). Florida was in front (not by much) for most of the game but Estrada really helped Alabama pull it out. Highlights on ESPN later on had announcers mention, "Estrada took over" and even mention Estrada, if I heard it right (I think I did), as "the pride of the Flying Dutchmen!!"
dutchPride86
Posts: 321
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2022 8:51 pm

Re: Estrada @ Alabama

Post by dutchPride86 »

Monster game for Estrada tonight...triple double! 18 pts, 10 reb, 10 ast, 4 steals (and only 1 TO). It's just the 4th ever triple double in Bama's history.
They put up 103 in a win at Ole Miss
Last edited by dutchPride86 on Thu Feb 29, 2024 12:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
EvanJ
Posts: 4139
Joined: Sat Sep 06, 2014 2:39 pm
Contact:

Re: Estrada @ Alabama

Post by EvanJ »

Estrada became the first player from 2010-2011 to now to have at least 18 points, at least 10 rebounds, at least 10 assists, at least 4 steals, 0 or 1 turnover, and 2 or fewer fouls.

Does anybody know if it is the first triple-double by a player after leaving Hofstra?
ZMAN3
Posts: 332
Joined: Mon Jul 21, 2014 12:37 am

Re: Estrada @ Alabama

Post by ZMAN3 »

EvanJ wrote: Thu Feb 29, 2024 12:49 am Estrada became the first player from 2010-2011 to now to have at least 18 points, at least 10 rebounds, at least 10 assists, at least 4 steals, 0 or 1 turnover, and 2 or fewer fouls.

Does anybody know if it is the first triple-double by a player after leaving Hofstra?
Don't know about that but watched the game and he was the best player on the court! Also fairly confident HU is a tournament team he remained here.
stuball888
Posts: 4609
Joined: Sat Jul 12, 2014 9:21 am

Re: Estrada @ Alabama

Post by stuball888 »

I wonder if Chaz Williams had a triple double at UMass
Wags
Posts: 4662
Joined: Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:15 pm

Re: Estrada @ Alabama

Post by Wags »

stuball888 wrote: Thu Feb 29, 2024 10:51 am I wonder if Chaz Williams had a triple double at UMass
Nope. But it's funny that you ask this today.

The closest was 26 pts, 8 reb, 11 asts in 44 minutes during a 90-88 loss at #23 Temple.

It was on 2/29/12, so today is the 12-year anniversary of that game (or is it the three-year anniversary? :lol: - Happy Leap Day again today!).
User avatar
Jojogunne
Posts: 2266
Joined: Sun Jul 13, 2014 4:00 pm

Re: Estrada @ Alabama

Post by Jojogunne »

Was Chaz playing for us or UMass on that date? These days he's playing in Iceland.
EvanJ
Posts: 4139
Joined: Sat Sep 06, 2014 2:39 pm
Contact:

Re: Estrada @ Alabama

Post by EvanJ »

His only season for us was 2009-2010. He had to sit out a season after transferring, and played for UMass from 2011-2012 through 2013-2014. He finished with 840 assists, which was in the top 25 in NCAA history in the annual Record Book. Now 25th has 857 assists. None of the top 25 played in the CAA.
Post Reply