Estrada @ Alabama

[Jojogunne]

Our good friend Aaron Estrada is off to a hot start with the Crimson Tide. In his first three games, he leads the team in 3pa and 3p%, and is second to Grant Nelson in ppg and minutes:

https://rolltide.com/sports/mens-basketball/stats

Last night, Aaron made headlines by scoring a game-high 27 pts vs. Indiana State, including 5-of-7 from 3-point range. Here are some highlights:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxEvP4FYscw

[triplec2195]

Really miss Estrada. He's playing at a very high level so far for the Crimson Tide. Nice footage.

[Wags]

Wish we had seen that against UNCW in DC in March.

[Polito]

Love it - wasn’t sure how he’d do in a bigger environment with other options and coming off a bad 2 months (for him), but he seems to be hitting the ground running

So great, both for him and for HU - hope he crushes it and makes a big name in the SEC

My niece at Bama has already heard about him so he’s on the right track!

[ZMAN3]

Think we could have used him - completely different team with than without - Conference Champs

[Wags]

Think we could have used him - completely different team with than without - Conference Champs

Even though down the stretch last year he wasn't quite the two-time POY we saw, just having him on the floor, having opposing defenses have to worry about him, made Thomas' job easier and made Thomas more effective so he could become the No. 1 guy at times like in the NIT win at Rutgers. And then that trickled down. Now we're seeing a different kind of trickle down effect, where without Estrada, it's tougher on Thomas and the same down the line. That's why it's so important for Dubar to be consistent and help Thomas out so everything after those two falls into place in good ways with the rest of the rotation.

[triplec2195]

Think we could have used him - completely different team with than without - Conference Champs

Even though down the stretch last year he wasn't quite the two-time POY we saw, just having him on the floor, having opposing defenses have to worry about him, made Thomas' job easier and made Thomas more effective so he could become the No. 1 guy at times like in the NIT win at Rutgers. And then that trickled down. Now we're seeing a different kind of trickle down effect, where without Estrada, it's tougher on Thomas and the same down the line. That's why it's so important for Dubar to be consistent and help Thomas out so everything after those two falls into place in good ways with the rest of the rotation.

All so true but even with Thomas and Dubar firing on all cylinders we need another SCORER PROBABLY 2 MORE SCORERS. Fritz has to show out in this lineup and so far he has been underwhelming.

[dutchalum01]

Think we could have used him - completely different team with than without - Conference Champs

Even though down the stretch last year he wasn't quite the two-time POY we saw, just having him on the floor, having opposing defenses have to worry about him, made Thomas' job easier and made Thomas more effective so he could become the No. 1 guy at times like in the NIT win at Rutgers. And then that trickled down. Now we're seeing a different kind of trickle down effect, where without Estrada, it's tougher on Thomas and the same down the line. That's why it's so important for Dubar to be consistent and help Thomas out so everything after those two falls into place in good ways with the rest of the rotation.

All so true but even with Thomas and Dubar firing on all cylinders we need another SCORER PROBABLY 2 MORE SCORERS. Fritz has to show out in this lineup and so far he has been underwhelming.

Underwhelming is being generous.


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[Polito]

Lolol was about to post the exact same thing da01 - kid has looked horrible. I am in awe of 6’10 guys that don’t score in the post or rebound a ball - kinda baffling at the D1 level. How many “Janes” is this program going to bring in?

But it’s early in a new situation for him, he CAN produce, so I’m going to rest all hope on Parrotta being an excellent bigs coach who has proven he can turn guys into really strong players. Williams was awful too and became at least serviceable. He’s got his work cut out for himself this year. But he wanted this kid and sang his praises so let’s see you get this right coach. Preferable before Feb.

The biggest disappointment to me so far is Dubar. Thomas will never have an opportunity to be a number one if he doesn’t have his number two acting like a number two for a full game to take the pressure off. Thomas and no way shape or form can be a number 1, 2 and 3 in a game. But I do believe he can be a #1 if he has help.

I am completely blown away that Dubar does not recognize the opportunity he has as a Jr now, because he has every skill and measurable to be a dominant player in this league, and could make a big name for himself, and make himself a ton of money somewhere after school. He looks as inconsistent and disinterested at times as he ever has, and he needs to get a fire lit under his ass.

These two trading halves of when they’re gonna play well is never going to work and it’s not gonna win this team any games. These two guys have to play full games or this team will go nowhere.

[Wags]

Think we could have used him - completely different team with than without - Conference Champs

Even though down the stretch last year he wasn't quite the two-time POY we saw, just having him on the floor, having opposing defenses have to worry about him, made Thomas' job easier and made Thomas more effective so he could become the No. 1 guy at times like in the NIT win at Rutgers. And then that trickled down. Now we're seeing a different kind of trickle down effect, where without Estrada, it's tougher on Thomas and the same down the line. That's why it's so important for Dubar to be consistent and help Thomas out so everything after those two falls into place in good ways with the rest of the rotation.

All so true but even with Thomas and Dubar firing on all cylinders we need another SCORER PROBABLY 2 MORE SCORERS. Fritz has to show out in this lineup and so far he has been underwhelming.

Last year, Estrada averaged 20.2 ppg, Thomas 16.5, and then it fell off to Dubar at 10.3, and no one else in double figures with the team scoring 74.7 ppg. Two primary scorers is enough if the rest all step up just a little bit. If Thomas gets near 20 ppg and Dubar gets near what Thomas was last year (so far, he's slightly exceeding that), and if, Carlos gets closer to 10 ppg (6.7 ppg last year), and then everyone else chips in a bit here and there, they can be like last with their scoring overall.

[Wags]

The biggest disappointment to me so far is Dubar. Thomas will never have an opportunity to be a number one if he doesn’t have his number two acting like a number two for a full game to take the pressure off. Thomas and no way shape or form can be a number 1, 2 and 3 in a game. But I do believe he can be a #1 if he has help.

I am completely blown away that Dubar does not recognize the opportunity he has as a Jr now, because he has every skill and measurable to be a dominant player in this league, and could make a big name for himself, and make himself a ton of money somewhere after school. He looks as inconsistent and disinterested at times as he ever has, and he needs to get a fire lit under his ass.

This was completely on target when he was a no-show in the first half against Princeton, but to be fair, I think he has shown a lot more of what you're looking for since then. He needed to go from the 10.3 ppg he averaged to exactly what he's done so far: a very consistent (overall) 17.3 ppg (albeit with one of those against St. Joseph's, so kind of throw that out), with 17, 18, and 17 in the first three games this year. The shooting has been efficient: 8/11, 6/11, 7/13 and even though he's struggled from 3 (0/1, 0/3, 0/3) he hasn't over-relied on that, keeping those attempts low while being efficient from 2.

These two trading halves of when they’re gonna play well is never going to work and it’s not gonna win this team any games. These two guys have to play full games or this team will go nowhere.

Now, this part - yes! They need to complement each other for 40 minutes, rather than taking turns in each half of who is carrying the team offensively. You're right, that's not generally not going to work. But all part of the gelling process through November and December.

[Polito]

Yeah, that's probably fair Wags on Dubar - I'm being a bit harsh because my expectations for him are sky high. Still time for him to fulfill on them. But he MUST play full games, EVERY SINGLE GAME. That's the expectation of upper classmen starters who are depended upon. Show up.

And I agree that this team doesn't need a ton of scoring options, they just need the ones they have to perform. This FL tourney is going to show something, good bad or other. They don't need to win it all, I certainly don't expect after what we've seen thus far, but they damn sure better show some improvement or all this 'everythings fine' coach talk is going to get old.

As for AE, he continues to play relatively well, although he's not lighting the world on fire. He's getting some points and rebounds, but would like to see more from him if he really wants to make his name.

[dutchalum01]

Interesting post by Estrada that’s since been deleted.

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[stuball888]

maybe the big fish in the little pond needs time to adjust to the bigger pond

[triplec2195]

That post might have been in reference to his 5 point performance against Purdue 2-8 1-4 playing 29 minutes. The other shooting guard had 35 points Mark Sears 13-25 8-16. It's a tough world playing with the big boys!

[ZMAN3]

Watched almost all of Bama-Chickens - Sears had the ball basically all the time - Estrada not the same player off the ball - not to mention that Giant Chicken blocking up the paint

[Polito]

Sears is their main dude, and he's absolutely going to be their go-to - AE has gone from Batman to Robin and has to make that adjustment consistently. Overall I think he's navigated pretty well, and has put up some nice stats and made his presence felt.

But this is a different animal playing at that level night in and out vs one or two big games in the OOC like at HU. And frankly, I think we are still seeing some of the up and down / feast or famine play AE displayed his last 2 months at HU. Just can't do that in the P5 and expect to succeed. He needs to improve and showcase his reliability...

Pulling hard for him - awesome guy and awesome rep of HU. Let's see how he settles into conference play... he can still have a super year, just has to find his groove and fit within that system.

[triplec2195]

Sears averaging 21 a game now Estrada 14.4. All Sears shooting % are higher then Aaron's. Sears is a super quick guard beating the D off the dribble while Aaron is more finesse but still super smooth. In a lot of the highlights I've seen Estrada like people have said is now playing the #2 role here and has to watch Sears play a lot of one on one basketball. Same thing HU players had to do with Estrada.

[Wags]

I don't think it was reasonable to expect him to go there and continue to do quite what he did at HU and be, say, the SEC POY. Being the #2 guy for a major program like Alabama is not bad at all.

It's not like he's not getting his chances - minutes: Sears 298, Estrada 284; shots: Sears 125, Estrada 123.

Since the shots are practically equal and the production is not, this is a good case study for PPS (mentioned in the Norfolk State game thread) to compare scoring efficiency, especially since it's the top two scorers and top two shot takers on a team:

Overall, Sears is at 1.70 PPS (212 points on 125 shots). Estrada is at 1.17 PPS (144 points on 123 shots).
Discounting FTs, where Sears has a 30-point advantage (46/56 vs. Estrada's 16/20), Sears is at 1.33 FG-Only PPS, Estrada at 1.04 FG-Only PPS

[triplec2195]

That PPS stat I never heard off but a further microscopic stat that has serious relevance kind of giving more detailed clarity to shooting percentages. A kid can score 20 a game compared to a kid scoring 15 but does he have to take that many more shots to get those extra 5 points. A good stat IMO in a world full of crazy analytics.