MBB Game 31 Northeastern, 2/25/23 (Sat), 2 PM

[Jojogunne]

This is our final regular-season game ... with the #1 seed in the CAA Championship Tournament at stake ... and our first MBB game under the new MSG contract.

It's also Senior Day, and Hofstra is giving away hoodies to the first 2,500 fans, so plan to arrive early.

Northeastern travels to Drexel Thursday night. The Huskies have won two in a row (vs. Monmouth and W&M), but the Dragons have been very good at home. It will be tough for the Huskies to win their last two games, especially on the road.

Other Thursday night action available on FloHoops at 7 pm:

Towson at Charleston (CBSSN)
Monmouth at Hampton
Delaware at NC A&T
Elon at W&M
Stony Brook at UNCW

[EvanJ]

We play at 2 PM, not 4 PM. Charleston ends their regular season at a game moved up to 12 PM for CBS Sports Network. They will be on national TV twice in a row.

[Jojogunne]

Thanks, Evan. I'll correct the time.

[triplec2195]

ESPN giving us a 95% chance to win this game and IMO this game will never be in doubt. We should win this game by a wide margin and take home 1st place in the doing. This won't be a loss on senior day like what we did against Madison ON JWF last home game. Let's GO Pride!!

[Wags]

ESPN giving us a 95% chance to win this game and IMO this game will never be in doubt. We should win this game by a wide margin and take home 1st place in the doing. This won't be a loss on senior day like what we did against Madison ON JWF last home game. Let's GO Pride!!

I agree but just one caution: last year, HU won in Boston, 72-50, before struggling to beat Northeastern at home, 76-73. Since they won this year's Boston game by a very similar 72-53 score, I hope they remember last year and don't let the Huskies hang around for too long in Hempstead on Saturday. Have another one of the very comfortable 13+ points wins that they've had so many of in CAA play this year and head to D.C. with good feelings and nothing but optimism about being the team to beat down there.

[triplec2195]

Amen to that Aaron is not going to go 1-12 and 0-4 this game will not be that close. This team is focused and they have their eye on the prize and it's there for the taking.

[EvanJ]

Towson led by 7. Charleston had two three-point plays to cut the lead to 1. Charleston got the ball with 20 seconds left in the first half, called timeout with 16 seconds left, and messed up. They went to the basket and had their shot roll off the rim with a enough time for Towson to get a step-and-a-half behind the three-point line and bank in a three at the buzzer to lead 38-34. If Towson wins, we clinch the 1 seed. William & Mary leads 38-30 hosting Elon, North Carolina A&T leads 37-28 hosting Delaware, Hampton leads 45-40 hosting Monmouth, UNCW leads 41-36 hosting Stony Brook, and Drexel leads 32-20 hosting Northeastern. I wonder what odds you could have gotten that at halftime every home team would be leading except for Charleston.

Edit: CBS Sports Network said Charleston trailed by 10 with 13 points left, and went on a 20-4 run. Charleston won 83-75. Charleston was led by Reyne Smith with 13 points, and five teammates scored 12. Nicolas Timberlake scored 34, which was more than Towson's next five players combined, and he broke Towson's record for career threes.

Delaware won 73-71 at North Carolina A&T. Rather than go inside while down 1, North Carolina A&T shot a three that hit the rim and went over the backboard and out of bounds with 1.5 seconds left. Delaware was led by Jameer Nelson Jr. with 30. North Carolina A&T had Marcus Watson score 21, and Duncan Powell score 19

William & Mary won 73-60 hosting Elon. Elon freshman Max Mackinnon led all scorers with 18, and William & Mary's Ben Wight scored 17.

Hampton won 86-81 hosting Monmouth. Hampton went up 16 with 11:38, and Monmouth got within 2. Monmouth was the only CAA team to have two players score at least 20, as Myles Foster scored 21, and Klemen Vuga scored 20. Russell "Deuce" Dean led Hampton with 18 points. He had 8 assists, and teammate Jordan Nesbitt had 7 assists. It is rare to have two teammates with at least 7 assists, and our last teammates to do that were Aaron Estrada and Zach Cooks on December 1, 2021 hosting Princeton. We have had teammates do that three times from 2010-2011 to now, and the other times were Desure Buie and Eli Pemberton, and Buie and Justin Wright-Foreman.

UNCW won 76-69 hosting Stony Brook. UNCW did not start Jamarii Thomas, but he had 26 points and 5 assists in 29 minutes off the bench. Keenan Fitzmorris led Stony Brook with 25 points. Stony Brook had a double-double, but it was not by Frankie Policelli. Toby Onyekonwu had 14 points and 10 rebounds.

Drexel won 75-48 hosting Northeastern. Drexel's Yame Butler led all players with 25 points, but he had 0 assists and 5 turnovers. Amari Williams did not shoot much, and had 9 points, 11 rebounds, and 5 assists. Jahmyl Telfort led Northeastern with 18 points, and none of his teammates scored by than 6.

[Wags]

This game in Saturday was almost rendered meaningless in terms of the regular season title. Hofstra was on the way to clinching the top seed tonight with Towson up, 54-44, with 13 1/2 left, but that was an impressive close from Charleston (39-21) from there, to win 83-75. With Charleston next hosting Stony Brook at noon on Saturday (ESPN gives them a 98% chance to win), this game at The Mack should likely mean the 1 or 2 seed for Hofstra with a win or loss by the time HU takes the floor. I like that scenario. It's probably best for HU that Charleston won tonight and best for them if Charleston wins Saturday to give HU a lot to play for and to keep them focused and sharp for the final game before D.C. Would also rather they win the regular season title by taking it instead of backing into it.

Towson falls to 11-6, a game behind UNCW (12-5). Their only meeting is Saturday night, an important one - the winner will get the 3 seed, the loser, the 4 seed. Despite the current standings, I still think Towson poses a greater threat to Hofstra in D.C. than UNCW does, so I'll be rooting for Towson to win at UNCW on Saturday. Going through both Towson and Charleston, I think, would be the toughest path, so go Tigers in Wilmington on Saturday. Should they lose, 11-7 and the 4 seed would be pretty disappointing for a preseason conference favorite.

[Wags]

Delaware won 73-71 at North Carolina A&T.

Delaware finally gets a CAA road win (they were 0-7 and very surprisingly, the only CAA team - not Hampton, not Monmouth, not Elon, not Stony Brook - without a CAA road win this season before tonight).

[EvanJ]

The standings are:

1. Hofstra: 15-2 (won the only head-to-head game against Charleston) (ends hosting Northeastern)
2. Charleston: 15-2 (ends hosting Stony Brook)
3. UNCW: 12-5 (ends hosting Towson)
4. Towson: 11-6 (ends at UNCW)
5. Drexel: 10-8
6. Delaware: 7-10 (won at North Carolina A&T tonight in the only head-to-head game) (ends at Elon)
7. North Carolina A&T: 7-10 (ends hosting Hampton)
8. Elon: 6-11 (3-1 against the teams they are tied with) (ends hosting Delaware)
9. William & Mary: 6-11 (3-3 against the teams they are tied with) (ends hosting Monmouth)
10. Stony Brook: 6-11 (2-3 against the teams they are tied with, 1-1 against Stony Brook, 1-0 against 5 seed Drexel) (ends at Charleston)
11. Northeastern: 6-11 (2-3 against the teams they are tied with, 1-1 against Stony Brook, 0-2 against 5 seed Drexel) (ends at Hofstra)
12. Hampton: 5-12 (won hosting Monmouth tonight to be 2-0 against Monmouth) (ends at North Carolina A&T)
13. Monmouth: 5-12 (ends at William & Mary)

5 is the only clinched seed. The winner of Towson at UNCW will be 3, and the loser will be 4. I do not know if I am going to do all the scenarios for the bottom eight because five games include at least one of those teams, so there are 2^5 = 32 scenarios, and many will require doing many tiebreakers. I am hoping the CAA provides the tiebreaker scenarios. It is possible to have a six-way tie for last, in which case the 1 seed will have a Quarterfinal against a team with the same amount of wins as the 13 seed.

[Jojogunne]

NC A&T led most of the game. UD did not pull away until the last few minutes.

[Wags]

I am hoping the CAA provides the tiebreaker scenarios. It is possible to have a six-way tie for last, in which case the 1 seed will have a Quarterfinal against a team with the same amount of wins as the 13 seed.

They always do. May be on Friday, may not be until Saturday morning, but they'll have it for every team, and this year, it will be a long list of possible scenarios, especially as you mentioned with tiebreakers possibly needed to sort out spots 8-13.

That six-way tie among the bottom six teams would be wild, but it's not that likely. It'll happen if:
Charleston beats Stony Brook (very likely)
Hofstra beats Northeastern (very likely)
Delaware wins at Elon (very possible, but Delaware on the road this year is very shaky)
Monmouth wins at W&M (not likely)
Hampton wins at NC A&T (probably won't happen)

I think we're headed for a 12/13 game between Hampton and Monmouth (both 5-13) and a three-way to sort out 9-11 between Elon, Stony Brook, and Northeastern each at 6-12, then W&M the only 7-11 team, which would jump them up to 8 and in line to possibly play Hofstra if they were to win the 8/9 game. I think Delaware and NC A&T both finish at 8-10 to sort out a tie for 6 and 7, Drexel we know is locked in at 5 (and will have the most rest of anyone going into the tournament). Not sure who wins Saturday night, but I hope it's Towson to get the 3 and UNCW slips to 4 (though ESPN gives UNCW a 60.4% chance to win that game). And then Charleston 2, and Hofstra on top.

I guess at this point, prior to Saturday's games, Hofstra's most likely path to a tournament title would be going through W&M, Towson, and Charleston. If Hofstra wins its first tournament game and is awaiting a 4/5 winner between Towson and Drexel, it's worth noting that those two teams split, with Towson winning at home by only six and Drexel winning at home by seven in OT. It's also worth noting that if Hofstra might be awaiting a 4/5 winner between UNCW and Drexel, that they met only once (recently, on 2/16), with UNCW winning by one in 2OT at Drexel. So Drexel may have a better shot than many may think of reaching the semis. In order, I think the toughest potential semifinal matchups for HU would be Towson, UNCW, then Drexel.

[HUSID80]

The Towson Charleton game was a great showcase for the CAA. Finally we saw a great game/battle and a sold out enthusiastic crowd on a CBSSN telecast. Great game to watch, both teams giving it all they had with Charleston mounting an impressive comeback. Both teams will be tough outs in Washington DC>

[Wags]

The Towson Charleton game was a great showcase for the CAA. Finally we saw a great game/battle and a sold out enthusiastic crowd on a CBSSN telecast. Great game to watch, both teams giving it all they had with Charleston mounting an impressive comeback. Both teams will be tough outs in Washington DC>

I think CBS Sports Network, with four teams from among HU, CofC, Towson, UNCW, and Drexel is likewise about to televise some very good games in the semfinals and final from D.C., at least one good semifinal anyway, and a potentially great championship game.

[Jojogunne]

The Towson Charleton game was a great showcase for the CAA. Finally we saw a great game/battle and a sold out enthusiastic crowd on a CBSSN telecast. Great game to watch, both teams giving it all they had with Charleston mounting an impressive comeback. Both teams will be tough outs in Washington DC>

Agree 100%. I think the top half of the CAA is as competitive a league as you would want. Let's hope the new teams are able to attract better players to strengthen the conference and improve our overall OOC record in years to come.

Last night, Charleston clearly had the advantage, although Towson held the lead for a long stretch. Timberlake is easily a CAA first-teamer. Towson's starting five was good, but could not match Charleston's depth. The Tigers seemed to run out of gas at the end. The Cougars also have a big mismatch in 6-10 OSU transfer Ante Brzovic. Good thing he does not play more minutes.

[EvanJ]

We do not want to go into the CAA Tournament with a shocking loss to blow the 1 seed, two unimpressive wins against bad teams, or Estrada in a slump.

I guess at this point, prior to Saturday's games, Hofstra's most likely path to a tournament title would be going through W&M, Towson, and Charleston. If Hofstra wins its first tournament game and is awaiting a 4/5 winner between Towson and Drexel, it's worth noting that those two teams split, with Towson winning at home by only six and Drexel winning at home by seven in OT. It's also worth noting that if Hofstra might be awaiting a 4/5 winner between UNCW and Drexel, that they met only once (recently, on 2/16), with UNCW winning by one in 2OT at Drexel. So Drexel may have a better shot than many may think of reaching the semis. In order, I think the toughest potential semifinal matchups for HU would be Towson, UNCW, then Drexel.

We should root for the 4-5 game to go overtime. Towson is better than UNCW in the NET, Sagarin, and KenPom, albeit that could change if UNCW wins. Ignoring how we match up against teams that rebound much better, the 1 seed may not get an easier Quarterfinal and Semifinal as the 2 seed.

https://gohofstra.com/news/2023/2/23/me ... urday.aspx is titled "Pride Puts Win Streak On The Line As They Strive For CAA Regular Season Title Saturday."

https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/side ... game31.pdf is our Game Notes.

Yesterday Jameer Nelson Jr. got to 0.04 points behind Estrada. The CAA leads in scoring, assists, and free throw percentage could change. Delaware plays at night, so the scoring leader will be decided at night. Assuming Estrada wins POY and/or leads in scoring, it will be the ninth time in fourteen seasons going back to Charles Jenkins's junior season that we had the POY and/or leading scorer.

Here is the schedule with CAA records and KenPom expectations:

Stony Brook (6-11) at Charleston (15-2) at 12:00 P.M. on CBS Sports Network: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=424664
KenPom expects Charleston to win 82-61 with a 97 percent chance of winning.

Northeastern (6-11) at Us (15-2) at 2:00 P.M. on MSG: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=425825
KenPom expects Us to win 78-62 with a 92 percent chance of winning.

Monmouth (5-12) at William & Mary (6-11) at 2:00 P.M.: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=429467
KenPom expects William & Mary to win 72-65 with a 73 percent chance of winning.

Hampton (5-12) at North Carolina A&T (7-10) at 2:00 P.M.: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=436476
KenPom expects North Carolina A&T to win 80-73 with a 73 percent chance of winning.

Towson (11-6) at UNCW (12-5) at 7:00 P.M.: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=426900
KenPom expects UNCW to win 68-66 with a 57 percent chance of winning.

Delaware (7-10) at Elon (6-11) at 7:00 P.M.: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=425244
KenPom expects Delaware to win 71-69 with a 58 percent chance of winning.

KenPom does not expect any one or two possession games until at night, but we will see. Drexel (10-8) is done.

[Wags]

We should root for the 4-5 game to go overtime.

Or like, seven overtimes. (provided HU wins tomorrow and wins its quarterfinal game, of course).

Towson is better than UNCW in the NET, Sagarin, and KenPom, albeit that could change if UNCW wins. Ignoring how we match up against teams that rebound much better, the 1 seed may not get an easier Quarterfinal and Semifinal as the 2 seed.

True, and although it's ALL about matchups in a tournament, I still prefer the 1 seed anyway even if a 1/4 game ends up being a bit tougher matchup than the 2/3 game for three reasons:

1) There is a certain mentality of being the top seed in a tournament like this, thinking that you proved you're the best over the regular season, now executive in the tourney and prove it there instead of being the 2 seed and having some doubts that maybe the 1 seed is a little better than you.

2) Again, from a mental standpoint, it's obviously SO much better to roll into D.C. on an 11-game streak than off of a bad home loss with a little bit of doubt.

3) The 1 seed gets a significant edge over the 2 seed with rest/recovery and prep time for the following games (with the 1 seed playing at noon and the 2 seed at 6 pm in the quarterfinals, and then the extra 2 1/2 hours or so of rest & prep time that the 1 seed gets after the semis could help with the turnaround for the championship game).

[EvanJ]

Charleston and us are two of the five teams with at least ten home wins and at least ten away wins. The others are Kennesaw State (who won 1 game three seasons ago), Colgate, and Oral Roberts. Number 1 Houston is undefeated away in 9 games. We are one of seven teams to have the same amount of home and away wins, but we will not end that way unless we lose tomorrow or win away in the postseason. Weber State has 7 of each, Monmouth has 3 of each, Mount St. Mary's has 5 of each, Merrimack has 7 of each, Navy has 9 of each, and Lafayette has 4 of each. UC San Diego, Harvard, Northern Illinois, Fairleigh Dickinson, Northwestern State, Texas A&M-Commerce, Alcorn State, Texas State, and Pacific are nine teams that have more away wins than home wins.

[ZMAN3]

"Playable" - HU 15/139

[EvanJ]

That makes a score of 77-62, which is close to KenPom's 78-62.

http://defiantlydutch.blogspot.com/2023 ... fstra.html is Jerry Beach's "I'll Be Quirky: Northeastern at Hofstra." Carlos shot 0-17 against Stony Brook this season. He had 10 points, 9 rebounds, and 9 assists in his previous game against Northeastern. Estrada is 33rd in career points, and is 3 behind Mike Moore, 7 behind Wandy Williams, and 14 behind Nathaniel Lester. We won our last eight games in which at least four players scored double-digits, and the last two were against Stony Brook.

Charleston leads Stony Brook 14-12. Frankie Policelli has 10 points.

The CAA did not write tiebreaker scenarios.

Edit: Charleston leads 41-22 at halftime, so we won't win the 1 seed before we play. Stony Brook has Tyler Stephenson-Moore with 0 points and 3 fouls, and Frankie Pollicelli with 11 points that were all in the first 7:49. Ben Burnham is sixth on Charleston with 9.1 points, and he has 17 points and 6 rebounds. Jaylon Scott played 16 minutes without shooting, but had 4 rebounds and 4 assists. Charleston has 30 rebounds, so they are on pace for 60, and their season-high is 54. The only CAA team to have more than 54 was William & Mary, who had 61 against non-Division I Mid-Atlantic Christian.