MBB Game 30 @ at Stony Brook, 2/18/23 (Sat), 6:30 PM

[Jojogunne]

Just two games to go in the regular season.

Hofstra meets up with Stony Brook (10-18, 6-9 CAA) for the second time in two weeks.

The Seahawks defeated W&M tonight, but that may well be their last win of the regular season as they conclude their conference schedule by playing us, UNCW and Charleston in their final three games. (Charleston and UNCW also host Towson in the Tigers' final two games.)

SNY will carry our game at Stony Brook. In addition, SNY will replay tonight's SBU-W&M game tomorrow at 1 pm.

[triplec2195]

ESPN saying we have a 91% chance of winning this game but we need to beware I'm sure that S.B. would love nothing better then to knock us out of first place on their court. We need to continue to play with a playoff type intensity. Everything else will then fall into place.

[HUSID80]

Last game we were without Estrada and they were without Tyler-Stevenson...should be a tough matchup as you said. They would LOVE to knock us out of first place but I think we will want to take them out just as much...tough early then we close it out late IMO.

[Wags]

If they continue the pattern, they'll win this game by 13-19 points and then beat Northeastern by at least 20.

Aside from the two four-points wins against Charleston and Towson, 12 of their 14 CAA wins have been by at least 13 points, with half of those by at least 20 points. And pretty much, they've maintained that type of level against the "non-contenders" since CAA play started (one win by 13-19 and another to match it by at least 20). Wouldn't surprise me if that's what we saw in these last two games. Stony Brook will likely be amped for payback at home, but Hofstra is simply a lot better and playing its best ball right now. I think HU wins it comfortably and keeps that 13+ thing going.

[triplec2195]

I do agree with a big win here maybe after a slow start I just love the way we're bringing our D intensity.

[EvanJ]

https://gohofstra.com/news/2023/2/17/me ... urday.aspx is titled "Hofstra Looks For Season Sweep Of Stony Brook On Saturday."

https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/side ... game30.pdf is our Game Notes.

Stony Brook does not write previews.

https://stonybrookathletics.com/sports/ ... ath=mbball has Stony Brook's statistics.

Here is the schedule with CAA records and KenPom expectations:

William & Mary (5-10) at Northeastern (5-10) at 12:00 P.M. on NESN+: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=426958
KenPom expects Northeastern to win 72-67 with a 68 percent chance of winning.

Elon (5-10) at Monmouth (5-10) at 2:00 P.M. on SNY and NBC Sports Philadelphia: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=426654
KenPom expects Monmouth to win 69-68 with a 50 percent chance of winning.

UNCW (11-4) at Delaware (5-10) at 4:00 P.M.: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=425092
KenPom expects UNCW to win 68-66 with a 55 percent chance of winning.

North Carolina A&T (7-8) at Towson (10-5) at 4:00 P.M. on NBC Sports Washington: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=428618
KenPom expects Towson to win 78-66 with an 87 percent chance of winning.

Drexel (9-7) at Hampton (3-12) at 4:00 P.M.: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=425749
KenPom expects Drexel to win 70-64 with a 72 percent chance of winning.

Us (14-2) at Stony Brook (6-9) at 6:31 P.M. on SNY: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=428327
KenPom expects us to win 73-61 with an 86 percent chance of winning.

Two games are expected to be very close. Charleston (14-2) has off.

[EvanJ]

Estrada will have a hard time being the CAA's leading scorer today because Jameer Nelson Jr. has 22 at halftime. Northeastern's Jahmyl Telfort leads CAA players so far today with 28.

http://defiantlydutch.blogspot.com/2023 ... brook.html is Jerry Beach's "I'll Be Quirky: Hofstra at Stony Brook." The 73-43 win hosting Hampton was our tenth unicorn score of the season, meaning the first time we won by that score. Our closest previous score to 73-43 was 73-40, which we did most recently hosting Charleston on February 25, 2015. All of our previous teams that started 21-8 went to the NCAA Tournament in Division I or Division II, NIT, or had the the 2020 NCAA Tournament canceled. We are one of sixteen teams to have at least 21 wins this season and last season. The only conferences with two of those teams are the Pac-12 (Arizona and UCLA), West Coast (Gonzaga and Saint Mary's), and CAA (UNCW and Us). Entering today, ee are tied with Northwestern State for the fourth longest active winning streak behind Eastern Washington (Gonzaga does not have the best conference record of teams in eastern Washington), Oral Roberts, and Toledo. Jerry wrote "This is the first time the Dutchmen have recorded three straight back-to-back wins since at least the 2005-06 season, which is as far back as play-by-play logs go at the Hofstra site." Our five game streak of allowing fewer than 6 percent is our longest streak since a six game streak from February 13 through March 10, 1999 that ended with a 58-45 loss at Rutgers in the NIT. Claxton got injured during that streak. We allowed 2 threes in each of our last two games, which is the first time we allowed four or fewer threes in consecutive games combined since January 7 and 9, 2009. He cited me:

"REBOUNDS AND BLOCKS
The Dutchmen finished with 45 rebounds and nine blocks Thursday. Per Loyal Reader EvanJ, it’s the first time the Dutchmen have had at least 45 rebounds and nine blocks in a game against a Division I foe since 2010-11, the first season of the Play Index era at College Basketball Reference."

Estrada is 33rd in career points. He has 13 fewer than Mike Moore, 17 fewer than Wandy Williams, and 24 fewer than Nathaniel Lester, so two of the next three players to pass played in the 2010s.

If Stony Brook loses, they will be caught by Northeastern (who beat William & Mary), Elon (who beat Monmouth), and likely Delaware (who leads UNCW 49-35 with 15:55 left). Unless a game goes very long, the rest of the CAA games will be over before we start.

With 6:55 left, Towson has 14 made threes and 46 rebounds. We did that twice from 2010-2011 to now, which were against Elon and this season hosting non-Division I Old Westbury. We had exactly 14 and 46 against Elon, so with 1 more of either, Towson will have done something we did not do against a Division I team from 2010-2011 to now.

Edit: We are starting our usual starters. Stony Brook is starting Kaine Roberts (guard, 3.3 ppg), Tanahj Pettway (guard, 7.0 ppg), Tyler Stephenson-Moore (guard, 14.5 ppg), Frankie Policelli (forward, 13.7 ppg, 9.2 rpg), and Rocco Muratori (center, 1.3 ppg).

[triplec2195]

Falling into the ultimate trap game here losing 15-12 with 7:58 left in the half and taking bad shots at least missing a lot of three's. Hope this turns around quickly this game is of utmost importance obviously.

[triplec2195]

Make that 17-12

[mikey75]

This has a bad vibe to it. Estrada has to stop dribbling into crowds. The defensive intensity we've seen is also lacking. they are letting Carlos shoot for obvious reasons.

[triplec2195]

He shot 1-7 0-4 and Carlos 0-6 0-4. This can't be happening Estrada having his worse game of the year.

[Jojogunne]

Can we put a bigger player on #14? He is abusing Carlos.

[Cards]

He shot 1-7 0-4 and Carlos 0-6 0-4. This can't be happening Estrada having his worse game of the year.

JC is now 0-9 0-6
AE is 1-10 0-4

HU is down 1 pt. SB guard Moore has 27 pts with 4 min left. Its his career high. How is it that people seem to always get their career highs against HU?

[triplec2195]

This is what I would like to know??

[Cards]

We pull it out 68-65. Way to close! really off games by JC and offensively for AE.

I guess things could always be worse, as Drexel got beat by Hampton

[triplec2195]

It's like someone paid Aaron to play this poorly offensively. Lol He couldn't do it again if he tried 10 points 8 of which came from the FT line and 6 turnovers. He did have 7 rebounds though. Twelve points for Williams and 11 for Dubar with 2 blocks and a steal. Plotnikov contributed as well with 4 boards and 7 points. Although Washington only had 3 points he had 6 rebounds and a steal. Just enough to get us over the hump in this game where the law of averages dictated possibly an off game. Fortunate win.

[stuball888]

Good teams find a way to win these type of games

[mikey75]

Whew. Too close. Island Federal Arena has become a tough venue for Hofstra.

[EvanJ]

We trailed for 22:00. We went up 7, and Stony Brook made 2 threes in the last 15 seconds to lose 68-65. With 1.6 seconds left, they gave up, as opposed to fouling and hoping we would miss 2 free throws. Estrada shot 1-12, but he made 5 free throws in the last 2:06 to score 10 and extend his double-digit streak. Stony Brook's second leading scorer for the season, Frankie Policelli, committed 4 fouls before he scored his only 4 points in the last 44 seconds. He led all players with 10 rebounds and 6 assists, and committed 5 turnovers. Thomas scored 23. Williams scored 12 by shooting field goals 4-4 and free throws 4-5. Dubar scored 11. Estrada had 10 points, led us with 7 rebounds, led us with 3 assists, and led all players with 6 turnovers. Plotnikov scored 7, Washington scored 3, and Boachie-Yiadom scored 2. Carlos shot 0-9 and was our only scoreless player. We only used eight players, and Marshall did not play. Six players including three bench players played a majority of the game. The bench scored 22 points in 70 minutes. We shot field goals .389, which came from shooting twos .533 and threes .208. After attempting 16 threes in the first half, we attempted 8 in the second half. We shot free throws 21-24 (.875), which is a ton by our standards. Even while not shooting well we did not have many of what I call the three mistakes, which are missed free throws, fouls (we had 12 and they had 19), and turnovers (we had 9 and they had 10). Stony Brook had 1 more rebound, and 4 fast break points with none by us. Dubar had 2 blocks, and Williams, Thomas, and a Stony Brook player had 1. Tyler Stephenson-Moore (hereafter TSM) shot 12-21 and led all players with 27 points. Stony Brook managed to lose while having the top player in points, rebounds, and assists by at least 3. In the Analytics tab, Thomas was the best player in efficiency (26 to TSM's 22), game score (20.6 to TSM's 18.7, and net points (7.9 to TSM's -3.8, Dubar was second best with 2.6).

The standings are:

1. Hofstra: 15-2
2. Charleston: 14-2
3. Towson: 11-5 (their only game against UNCW is the last game, Towson wins the tiebreaker because of a win over us)
4. UNCW: 11-5
5. Drexel: 9-8
6. North Carolina A&T: 7-9
7. through 10. Delaware, Northeastern, Elon, and Stony Brook: 6-10
11. William & Mary: 5-11 (their only game against Monmouth is the last game, William & Mary wins the tiebreaker because of a win over Towson)
12. Monmouth: 5-11
13. Hampton: 4-12

[mikey75]

So if Hofstra beats NE next Saturday does it at least get an automatic NIT bid regardless of the CAA tournament result?