MBB Game 26 @ Northeastern, 2/8/23 (Wed), 6 PM

[Jojogunne]

Unusual date and time for our next game. Hate to say it, but we don't always play well up at Northeastern. Maybe it's the hockey rink under the basketball court, I don't know.

This has been a tough year for the Huskies, who are 8-14 overall and 4-7 in the CAA. They've dropped their last four conference games, including a crushing 1-point loss to Elon, who trailed Northeastern by 4 with 36 second to go. Watch out for the Phoenix in the CAA playoffs.

The game is on the CBS Sports Network, which is why the date and time are different.

[EvanJ]

The game is on the CBS Sports Network, which is why the date and time are different.

The time is earlier for TV. All the CAA games are Wednesday this week. Playing earlier lets us watch the end of other CAA games. The biggest game is UNCW at Charleston. By having two days off between Wednesday and Saturday, some teams play games at teams that are not nearby. Then there is one day off before games next Monday.

[Wags]

Unusual date and time for our next game. Hate to say it, but we don't always play well up at Northeastern. Maybe it's the hockey rink under the basketball court, I don't know.

Kinda true going back further, but HU has also had its share of wins even in close games up there in recent years, and HU crushed them (72-50) up there last year (only beat them by three at home last year).

Shouldn't be taken for granted at all, but I don't see this one being too much of a problem. ESPN gives HU an 80.6% chance of winning and Estrada will be back. I don't think the Huskies are the type of team that can stop him (or Thomas the way he's playing lately).

I like the earlier start. Get a W (hopefully) by 8 pm and have the rest of the night free.

[triplec2195]

A little uneasy about this game knowing our history with NE BUT JUST TOO MUCH ON THE LINE TO LOSE THIS GAME.

[EvanJ]

https://gohofstra.com/news/2023/2/6/men ... skies.aspx is titled "Northeastern Preview
Due North; Pride Prepared For National Television Encounter With Huskies."

https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/side ... game25.pdf is our Game Notes. Estrada needs 14 points to tie Darius Burton for 36th, and 23 points to tie Derrick Flowers for 35th.

The game at Monmouth on Saturday will be on SNY, making this our only week with two televised games before the CAA Tournament.

[triplec2195]

ESPN now giving us a 74.2% chance of winning down from 80.6. Do they know something we don't know?

[EvanJ]

I doubt ESPN spends time on researching what mid-major players are unavailable even if they are as good as Estrada. I am not saying he's unavailable. I'm stating a hypothetical.

https://nuhuskies.com/news/2023/2/7/men ... cbssn.aspx is titled "Huskies Set To Host Hofstra Wednesday On CBSSN." It just has "three things to know," with none of them about us.

https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/side ... _Notes.pdf is Northeastern's Game Notes. The CAA standings they give list Charleston on top of us, and they do not give ranks. They give the NET Top 100 indicating who they played or will play. The "last time that..." section has more extreme numbers than our section has. For example, the last time they scored at least 130 points was when they scored 152 against Loyola Marymount on November 24, 1990. They attempted 106 field goals in that game, which was the last time they attempted at least 90 field goals. Here are their specialty stats:

Points in the paint: More than opponent 8 times, tied 2 times, and fewer than opponent 12 times
Points off turnovers: More than opponent 7 times (including their last 3 games), tied 3 times, and fewer than opponent 12 times
Second chance points: More than opponent 13 times, tied 1 time, fewer than opponent 8 times
Fast break points: More than opponent 7 times (including their last 3 games), tied 3 times, and fewer than opponent 12 times (this is identical to points off turnovers)
Bench points: More than opponent 15 times, tied 1 time, and fewer than opponent 6 times

Here is the CAA schedule with CAA records, KenPom expectations, and statistics links:

Us (10-2) at Northeastern (4-7) at 6:00 P.M. on CBS Sports Network: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/statmonitr/?id=426956 (KenPom expects us to win 75-68 with a 74 percent chance of winning)

Monmouth (3-8) at Stony Brook (4-7) at 6:31 P.M.: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/statmonitr/?id=428324 (KenPom expects Stony Brook to win 68-62 with a 70 percent chance of winning, but I am assuming that is based on the whole season and not factoring in that Tyler Stephenson-Moore is injured)

Drexel (7-5) at Delaware (4-8) at 7:00 P.M. on NBC Sports Philadelphia: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/statmonitr/?id=425090 (KenPom expects Delaware to win 67-65 with a 57 percent chance of winning)

Hampton (3-8) at Towson (8-3) at 7:00 P.M.: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/statmonitr/?id=428616 (KenPom expects Towson to win 78-62 with a 93 percent chance of winning)

UNCW (9-3) at Charleston (10-2) at 7:00 P.M.: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=424661 (KenPom expects Charleston to win 74-66 with a 79 percent chance of winning)

Elon (3-8) at North Carolina A&T (6-6) at 7:00 P.M.: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=436474 (KenPom expects North Carolina A&T to win 76-71 with a 70 percent chance of winning)

William & Mary (4-8) has off.

[stuball888]

so we are the only CAA team on the road expected to win

[triplec2195]

We're 6.5 point favorites per ESPN. This will not be an easy game. Always have had respect for Bill Coen and his coaching ability and they have a few players that could give us trouble. Of course we have a few that will give them cause for concern as well.

[Wags]

We're 6.5 point favorites per ESPN. This will not be an easy game. Always have had respect for Bill Coen and his coaching ability and they have a few players that could give us trouble. Of course we have a few that will give them cause for concern as well.

Same for me on Coen, but I do think this will be in line with the several double-digit wins we've seen for HU against other CAA teams this season. It seems people have some PTSD from how Northeastern has played HU in the past, but those were far better teams. This is not one of them and this is not the past. Northeastern is 4-7 in CAA play, the four wins are against no one of note and the Huskies are reeling, with four straight losses going into this game tonight. Telfort's a good guard and he has some size. Doherty (how is he STILL playing college ball?! Seems like he's been around for a decade lol) can be a problem, but this is bad a Northeastern team this year and I think HU makes it a comfortable win in Boston for a second straight year after winning by 22 there last year.

[HUSID80]

Sign me up for it right now Wags! Seems we all have meories of struggles with our rivals to the north.

[Jojogunne]

so we are the only CAA team on the road expected to win

It wouldn't surprise me to see Drexel win @ Delaware. The Dragons are playing well (just upset Charleston) and the Hens are not.

[HofstraMathew]

so we are the only CAA team on the road expected to win

It wouldn't surprise me to see Drexel win @ Delaware. The Dragons are playing well (just upset Charleston) and the Hens are not.

Completely agree; Drexel is 3.5 point dogs in that game. Feel they come out determined after losing to Monmouth.

[stuball888]

Drexel plays well at home their road record is less than steller
Drexel is 10-2 at home and 2-7 on the road in conference play

[EvanJ]

I just DVRed the game, and the description said Estrada missed the last game with food poisoning. I wonder if it is the first time I saw a TV description of a Hofstra game that mentioned a player missing a game or games.

We will play Northeastern three times in seven games if they are our first CAA Tournament opponent.

[Wags]

Sign me up for it right now Wags! Seems we all have meories of struggles with our rivals to the north.

Why do people only remember the bad? Most of that is ancient history at this point. HU has actually (for the most part) fared very well in recent years against Northeastern.

HU vs. Northeastern since the Huskies joined the CAA:

2021-22: 2-0
2020-21: 0-2
2019-20: 2-0
2018-19: 1-1
2017-18: 1-1
2016-17: 2-0
2015-16: 2-0 (including a 3OT win in Boston)
----------------
2014-15: 0-2
2013-14: 0-2
2012-13: 0-2
2011-12: 0-2
2010-11: 2-0
2009-10: 1-1
2008-09: 1-1
2007-08: 1-1
2006-07: 1-1
2005-06: 1-1

[Wags]

so we are the only CAA team on the road expected to win

It wouldn't surprise me to see Drexel win @ Delaware. The Dragons are playing well (just upset Charleston) and the Hens are not.

Wouldn't surprise me but Drexel has also been up and down. They lost at Monmouth after beating Charleston.

Delaware is arguably the biggest disappointment in the conference this year. Granted, the defending champs lost a lot from last year, but I still thought they might be the 4 or 5 seed this year but they are currently 9th.

[EvanJ]

Without quoting Wags's whole post, the records against Northeastern should include the CAA Tournament. Being the 1 seed, having Justin Wright-Foreman, and losing the 2019 Final to them was bad.

http://defiantlydutch.blogspot.com/2023 ... stern.html is Jerry's Beach's "I'll Be Quirky: Hofstra at Northeastern." He gave German Plotnikov the second star from the Stony Brook game, making ten players he has awarded this season, which is the most since he starting doing it. He gives three stars with a 3-2-1 point system, so after 25 games it adds up to 150 points. The standings are Estrada 48, Thomas 34, Dubar 24, Carlos 17, Williams 10, Boachie-Yiadom 7, Marshall 6, Plotnikov 2, Washington 1, and Barrouk 1. The highest a player could have at this point is 75. Estrada is averaging over 2 points per game he played in. It was our first 79-58 win since a win at Towson on February 1, 2001, which was during an 18 game winning streak that ended with an NCAA Tournament loss to UCLA. In all four seasons we started 16-8, we won our next game, which we continued doing against Stony Brook. With Plotnikov and Williams scored 14, and Williams scoring 10 and Washington scoring 12 in the previous game, it is the first time we had two bench players score double-digits in consecutive games since a 67-59 loss at Siena on December 23, 2013, and a 69-58 loss hosting George Washington on December 28, 2013. Against Siena, Dion Nesmith and Chris Jenkins scored 11. Against George Washington, Nesmith scored 17, and Darren Payen scored 10. I was shocked that Nesmith did not start consecutive games because he was our second leading scorer. I checked, and those were the only two games he played but did not start that season. He played 33 and 34 minutes off the bench. From 2013-2014 to now, we had 13 players combine to win 43 CA A Player of the Week awards, which leads the CAA by far. Charleston and Northeastern have the next most with 23. We won against the spread in our last five games. Since Northeastern joined the CAA, 20 of our 37 games against them (54.1 percent) were decided by 6 points or fewer or in overtime, and that excludes two CAA Finals that had the lead get bigger at the end.

[Wags]

Without quoting Wags's whole post, the records against Northeastern should include the CAA Tournament. Being the 1 seed, having Justin Wright-Foreman, and losing the 2019 Final to them was bad.

I don't think this was bad at all. Hofstra was the 1 seed and 15-3 in CAA play that year, Northeastern the 2 seed and 14-4. Both were very good CAA teams that season. It was splitting hairs, really like 1 and 1A. That title game was basically a tossup going in and after a bad first half, Hofstra got back in the game about midway through the second half and just couldn't finish. Disappointing? Of course, hugely disappointing because it was the championship game. But a "bad" loss, as in Hostra should have won? Not at all. AND, who did HU beat in the title game the following year, if we're including the CAA tournament? Northeastern!

The only other CAA tourney meeting with Northeastern besides those two title games was a very close Huskies three-point win in 2OTs in 2010.

[EvanJ]

We are starting our usual starters. Northeastern is starting Glen McClintock (guard, 3.8 ppg), Harold Woods (guard, 2.8 ppg), Jahmyl Telfort (guard, 16.1 ppg), Joe Pridgen (guard, 7.2 ppg), and Coleman Stucke (forward, 10.0 points). Here is StatBroadcast's comparison with our number followed by Northeastern's:

Points: 74.0, 66.5
Field goal percentage: .480, .428
Three-point field goal percentage: .369, .346
Free throw percentage: .740, .664
Rebounds: 32.6, 36.2
Offensive rebounds: 7.2, 10.5
Blocks: 4.0, 4.2
Steals: 6.1, 5.1
Assists: 14.0, 13.3
Turnovers: 11.1, 14.5
Assists/turnovers: 1.26, 0.91

https://nuhuskies.com/sports/mens-baske ... ath=mbball has Northeastern's statistics. They have used 13 players, and 12 of them have started. Chris Doherty averages 9.8 points and leads them with 6.3 rebounds. He missed 5 games, but he played in the previous game.