MBB Game 22 - @ Elon, 1/26/23 (Thurs), 7 PM

[Jojogunne]

The Phoenix is not rising at Elon (2-18).

Elon is on a 10-game losing streak and has not beaten any D1 teams.

This contest has all the makings of a classic trap game before our anticipated face-off @ Charleston next Saturday, so we have to be prepared mentally as well as physically this week.

The Elon game is on FloHoops.

[triplec2195]

Yes all the makings of a classic "PLAY DOWN GAME" looking ahead to the potential prize on Saturday against Charleston. Elon coming off a 66-62 loss to Towson where they were down by 14 at the half and came back to make that game close. Need to bury them and keep them buried in this game.

[EvanJ]

We should hope for an easy win to rest starters at the end. Darius Burford (13.4 ppg and 3.0 apg last season), Hunter Woods (5.8 ppg last season and 10.1 as a freshman), Hunter McIntosh (13.3 ppg last season and 15.7 the previous season), and Michael Graham (9.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.3 bpg, and .609 field goal percentage last season) transferred. Graham is now a sub averaging 4.8 ppg, but he scored 9 in Loyola Marymount's last game, which was a win to end Gonzaga's 75 game home winning streak. They combined for 62 percent of Elon's points last season.

Elon is led by Sean Halloran, who is a graduate transfer from a non-Division I team. He averages 12.6 points. They also start Zac Ervin, who is in his third season there; Max Mackinnon, a freshman who previously went to college in Australia; Sam Sherry, who is in his second season there; and they have a three-way tie for the fifth most starts with 8. Those players are Torrence Watson, who is in his fifth season with three for Missouri and two for Elon; John Bowen III, a graduate transfer from UNCW; and LA Pratt, a freshman.

Edit: We return only 25 points from our last game at Elon, which was when Omar Silverio made a CAA-record 11 threes.

The CAA will have six games at the same time, with none on TV, and Charleston has off. Here are the statistics links and KenPom expectations:

Us: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/statmonitr/?id=425239 (KenPom expects us to win 76-65 with an 85 percent chance of winning)

Stony Brook at William & Mary: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/statmonitr/?id=429463 (KenPom expects William & Mary to win 68-63 with a 67 percent chance of winning)

Drexel at North Carolina A&T: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=436472 (KenPom expects Drexel to win 70-68 with a 56 percent chance of winning)

Northeastern at Towson: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/statmonitr/?id=428614 (KenPom expects Towson to win 70-60 with an 82 percent chance of winning)

Monmouth at UNCW: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/statmonitr/?id=426896 (KenPom expects UNCW to win 75-55 with a 97 percent chance of winning)

Delaware at Hampton: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/statmonitr/?id=425745 (KenPom expects Delaware to win 76-69 with a 74 percent chance of winning)

I will be going out to eat for my birthday and maybe watching the end of the game.

[triplec2195]

OK good stats Evan and a happy birthday to you. ESPN also gives us an 88% chance of winning. I always worry about that other 11% but it would be nice to get some guys some rest getting ready to hopefully what will be a good game on Saturday.

ESPN has us as a 10 point favorite.

[EvanJ]

https://gohofstra.com/news/2023/1/24/me ... rsday.aspx is our preview titled "Huge Southern Swing Begins On Thursday."

https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/side ... game22.pdf is our Game Notes.

Elon has not written a preview yet. https://elonphoenix.com/sports/mens-bas ... versity/15 is their opponent history for us.

KenPom ranks teams as offense-dependent or defense-dependent. We are the third most offense-dependent in the CAA. Elon is the eighth most offense-dependent, meaning the sixth most defense-dependent. Unfortunately it does not give those rankings among all 363 teams.

Boachie-Yiadom has 41 assists, which is a lot for a forward. Last season Abayomi Iyiola, Kvonn Cramer, and Jarrod Simmons combined for 38 assists.

Williams is averaging 3.25 field goals made and 0.25 assists. Our last player to average at least 3.25 field goals made and 0.25 or fewer assists was Ahmad Jackson in 1995-1996. Williams is one of eight players with that combination this season. The only CAA player with that combination while we were in the CAA was James Madison's Dimitrije Cabarkapa in 2015-2016.

Thank you for the birthday wishes.

[Wags]

I will be going out to eat for my birthday and maybe watching the end of the game.

Your birthday is on my one-quarter birthday lol.

Happy birthday and a great year ahead, Evan! And many more!

Enjoy your day, have a nice birthday dinner, and I hope Hofstra gives you a good W!

[triplec2195]

ESPN has us as a 10 point favorite.

[EvanJ]

https://elonphoenix.com/news/2023/1/25/ ... night.aspx is titled "Men’s Basketball Hosts Hofstra on Thursday Night." Elon Coach Billy Taylor is 0-1 against us, which was a 63-50 win by us over Lehigh on November 30, 2002, when we went 8-21, and that was our only nonconference win. Taylor has also been the head coach of Ball State, and prior to this season he was an assistant for Iowa, who led in assist-to-turnover ratio in consecutive seasons.

Elon lost 73 percent of their points from last season. 52 percent of their points this season are from players who did not play for them last season.

Sean Halloran is 31st in Division I with 2.2 steals per game.

In their last game, Elon got 1 more rebound than Towson, whose rebounding margin per game was +5.15 before that.

We are 106th in the NET. Elon is 352nd, which is twelfth worst.

The CAA is the only conference with two teams winless in conference, and since Monmouth is at UNCW, it is likely to stay that way tonight.

Delaware is favored by 10 at Hampton, Drexel is favored by 3 at North Carolina A&T, UNCW is favored by 16.5 hosting Monmouth, we are favored by 10, William & Mary is favored by 4 hosting Stony Brook, and Towson is favored by 10 hosting Northeastern.

Edit: http://defiantlydutch.blogspot.com/2023 ... r-guy.html is Jerry Beach's "I'll Be Quirky: Not Twitter Guy." The win against UNCW was our first 70-46 win since we won hosting Elon in the Preseason NIT on November 23, 2009, which was the only game between the teams before they joined the CAA. We were tied at halftime for the third time this season, which is out most times tied at halftime since at least 2002-2003. Since 2002-2003, we are 12-10 when tied at halftime, and our previous largest margin of victory in those games was 14. Our last two games were the first time that we scored under 50 points and then allowed under 50 points in consecutive games since a 50-46 loss to Moravian on February 5, 1958, and 61-41 win over Kings Point two days later. We did that in the other order with a 74-49 win hosting Towson on February 1, 2012, and a 59-43 loss hosting Georgia State three days later. We played four consecutive games decided by at least 20 points for the first time since we played five consecutive games decided by at least 20 points from December 9, 1995 through January 6, 1996.

[Cards]

So we are down 2 at the half.

Pitiful play. Sloppy with no life at all. No passing. We still can't handle a two-person press when we cross mid court.

Speedy is just watching with his hands on his hips or his arms crossed. He must be pissed and I don't blame him.

[triplec2195]

Did someone mention trap game?? I see we are losing 35-33 at the half.

[stuball888]

Speedy better light a fire under their arses

[triplec2195]

Visions of W&M last year. This kid Halloran who's a graduate student from a non D1 school has 15 points in the half. He only averages 12?? Beware if we let them hang around.

[Cards]

HU wins by 17. They took care of business in the second half.

Estrada pours in 40 pts on 16 for 25 shooting with 8 3-ptrs.

Need to play for all 40 minutes on Saturday (not like we did tonight)!

[stuball888]

Aaron Effin Estrada 40 ponits
He took over the game as we went on a 16-2 run. Thats what great players do.
Thomas with 23 points. The two score 63 of our 82 points.
Butch Cassady and the Sundance kid
Batman and Robin.

[stuball888]

We are the only road team to win in the CAA.
Delaware fans are besides themselves as Delaware loses to Hampton 67-66.

[Flying Dutchmen]

Tuned in at 45-45, don't know what happened before that, but we looked amazing offensively from that point onward. One of those nights where it looked effortless for Estrada.

Defensively, we have to ditch the matchup zone we get lost too often, so many wide open shots in the corner for Elon.

Half way there. 7-2. Not bad, still somewhat enigmatic. the A&T game was one of the worst I've seen us play in years, the UNCW one of the best I've seen us play in years. Rebounding will be the death of us though.

[EvanJ]

The last two times we went to Elon, we had a player scored 40. I wish I could find out how many teams have ever had a player score at least 40 in consecutive games at the same opponent. Last season Omar Silverio made 11 threes, 1 two, and 5 free throws. Nine players had an amount of assists that is a multiple of 3, which must be very rare, and the game was not extremely high scoring. Carlos had 9, Max MacKinnon had 6, and Estrada, Thomas, Dubar, Sean Halloran, Zac Ervin, Jerald Gillens-Butler, and Torrence Watson had 3. From 2010-2011 to now we are 4-1 when five opposing players have at least 3 assists, and we have not allowed six opposing players to have at least 3 assists. Carlos became the eleventh player this season to have 2 or fewer points, at least 4 rebounds, and at least 9 assists. It is the 195th time from 2010-2011 to now that a player did that, but none of the previous 194 were in the CAA. Elon had 11 more rebounds, 5 more field goal attempts, and 6 more free throw attempts. We avoided mistakes with 11 fouls and 8 turnovers. All of our players had at least as many assists as turnovers, and 21/8 = 2.625 is a great assist-to-turnover ratio. We had no free throws made, and no second chance points. I cannot search for second chance points, but I did find out that we are the second team from 2010-2011 to now to beat a Division I team with at least 82 points and no free throws made. Florida did it in an 83-66 win at Texas A&M on January 2, 2018, two teams did that in wins over non-Division I teams, and two teams did that in losses. Amar'e Marshall did not player. Estrada (39 minutes) and Thomas (38 minutes) did not get much rest. Williams was not in foul trouble, but he had only 2 points and 3 rebounds in 18 minutes. Justin Wright-Foreman, Ameen Tanksley, Brian Bernardi, Aaron Estrada, Tyler Thomas, Desure Buie, Eli Pemberton, Tareq Coburn, Omar Silverio, and Jalen Ray have made at least 5 threes in a game against Elon. The ten players are the most by Hofstra against an opponent from 2010-2011 to now. We outscored our opponent in the second half by at least 19 points in consecutive games, and I wonder when the previous time we did that was.

William & Mary won 77-74 hosting Stony Brook. William & Mary led 39-19. After that, William & Mary scored 38 points (1 fewer than 39), and allowed 55 points (36 more than 19). William & Mary's Anders Nelson scored 27, and his only miss was 1 free throw. He also had 5 rebounds and 4 assists. Frankie Policelli scored 25 for Stony Brook.

Drexel led 31-19 at halftime before host North Carolina A&T more than doubled Drexel in the second half to win 68-55. North Carolina A&T shot .593 with 6 threes made in the second half against Drexel's great defense. North Carolina A&T's Marcus Watson was the leading scorer with 22.

Towson won 72-63 hosting Northeastern. Northeastern led by 9, and Towson led by 16. Towson's Charles Thompson led with 20 points, and had 7 rebounds. Teammate Cameron Holden had a double-double with 13 points and 10 rebounds, but he shot 5-17. Northeastern's Chris Doherty had 12 points, 16 rebounds, and 3 assists.

UNCW held on to win 52-49 hosting Monmouth, who missed a three with 2 seconds left. UNCW's Trazarien White led all scorers with 16, but he shot 5-15. Monmouth did not have a double-digit scorer. Klemen Vuga led them with 9 points and 10 rebounds. Monmouth made only 2 threes. The game had a lot of fouls (19 for Monmouth and 18 for UNCW) and turnovers (18 for Monmouth and 17 for UNCW).

Hampton won 67-66 hosting Delaware, who fell to 3-6 in the CAA. Hampton's Jordan Nesbitt had 31 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists, and 5 steals. Delaware had 6 more rebounds, and twice as many assists as Hampton.

The CAA standings are:

1. Charleston: 9-0
2. Towson: 7-2 (head-to-head win over us, we play them again)
3. Hofstra: 7-2
4. UNCW: 7-3
5. Drexel: 6-3
6. North Carolina A&T: 6-4
7. William & Mary: 4-5 (head-to-head win over Northeastern, they play again)
8. Northeastern: 4-5
9. Stony Brook: 3-5
10. Delaware: 3-6
11. Hampton: 2-7
12. Elon: 0-8 (the CAA uses the NET as the last tiebreaker, and Elon has a better NET than Monmouth)
13. Monmouth: 0-8

[Wags]

HU did what they had to do tonight. Bad first half, but remember, even Charleston was down three at halftime at Monmouth before winning by 14.

Not sure how to view the past two games offensively. On one hand, Estrada & Thomas have developed a great 1-2 punch over the past two games that can be a big problem for other teams. However, it may be concerning that over those two games, no one else is really involved (at least scoring wise) other than those two. Tonight, after Estrada's 40 and Thomas' 23, it was just 6, 5, 2, 2, 2, 2 with those two taking 42 of the 59 shots. I guess when you're doing that and winning big (like in these past two games), so what? It's great and you'll gladly take it. BUT that could be a problem if one or both of them are off (like when they were both off at Towson and they lost big as a result). Tonight, they were both lights out from 3 (Estrada 8/15, Thomas 5/11).

Regardless of blowing the 11-point first-half lead and trailing at halftime, a 17-point road win was exactly what they needed heading into Saturday. 7-2 and tied for second at the CAA midpoint isn't bad either. Also, that second half was big because it gave Evan a good birthday win tonight. Onto the biggest game of the regular season. They have a chance to make some national noise (not just within the CAA) if they can somehow get a win over what is now a Top 20 team and break their long winning streak.

HU's seven CAA wins by 14, 16, 13, 20, 24, 24, and 17 points (18.3 average).

[triplec2195]

A nice win for us obviously after letting them come back at the end of the 1st half to take a 2 point lead. Kudos to Estrada who seemingly can score at will when he wants to. Just noticed the minutes Washington got in this game but wondered what happened to Marshall. He had to be injured or sick not to get minutes in this game.

[HUSID80]

A nice win for us obviously after letting them come back at the end of the 1st half to take a 2 point lead. Kudos to Estrada who seemingly can score at will when he wants to. Just noticed the minutes Washington got in this game but wondered what happened to Marshall. He had to be injured or sick not to get minutes in this game.

Yes, was wondering about Marshall myself...there was one kid in crutches on the court but could not tell who it was. Bottom line on this game is we did what we had to do....and we won going away. Sets up the big one on Saturday nicely.