2020 CAA Men's Basketball Tournament

[EvanJ]

I started a new topic because all the seeds are known, and I want this topic to be about games, not possible seeds or traveling. Towson beat Northeastern 75-72 to make this schedule:

Saturday at 4:00 P.M. Game 1: Drexel (8) vs. UNCW (9)
Saturday at 6:30 P.M. Game 2: Elon (7) vs. James Madison (10)
Sunday at 12:00 P.M. Game 3: Hofstra (1) vs. Drexel or UNCW
Sunday at 2:30 P.M. Game 4: Charleston (4) vs. Delaware (5) (this is the only standing tie and Charleston swept Delaware)
Sunday at 6:00 P.M. Game 5: William & Mary (2) vs. Elon or James Madison
Sunday at 8:30 P.M. Game 6: Towson (3) vs. Northeastern (6)
Monday at 6:00 P.M. Game 7: Hofstra, Drexel, or UNCW vs. Charleston or Delaware
Monday at 8:30 P.M. Game 8: William & Mary, Elon, or James Madison vs. Towson or Northeastern
Tuesday at 7:00 P.M. Game 9: Final

[Wags]

Thanks, I was just about to do the same, so you saved me the work.

Amazingly agonizing season for the defending champs. Northeastern finishes 9-9 in CAA play, with 7 of their 9 losses by one possession. That's why I keep saying if they could somehow figure out how to pull out close games in D.C., they can make a run to the finals from the 6 seed, even if it's through Towson and W&M.

That's also partly why I think matchup-wise, this was probably the best possible outcome this weekend for Hofstra. They'll get to avoid William & Mary, Towson and Northeastern (possibly the three most dangerous teams for HU, though you could argue CofC or UDel instead of NU) until at least the finals, and would of course, only have to play one of those three. The Pride's path to the CAA finals goes through Drexel or UNCW and then Charleston or Delaware. Any game could be tough. I don't think Drexel is a problem, but UNCW could be on the wrong day, and certainly CofC or Delaware. But, the biggest key, I think, is avoiding Towson in the semis. Given the way it could've shaped up this weekend, I think this the best possible path for them. It's the reward of being 1, while W&M and Towson have much tougher paths. Now they just have to back it up.

[Wags]

Thanks, I was just about to do the same, so you saved me the work.

Amazingly agonizing season for the defending champs. Northeastern finishes 9-9 in CAA play, with 7 of their 9 losses by one possession. That's why I keep saying if they could somehow figure out how to pull out close games in D.C., they can make a run to the finals from the 6 seed, even if it's through Towson and W&M.

That's also partly why I think matchup-wise, this was probably the best possible outcome this weekend for Hofstra. They'll get to avoid William & Mary, Towson and Northeastern (possibly the three most dangerous teams for HU, though you could argue CofC or UDel instead of NU) until at least the finals, and would of course, only have to play one of those three. The Pride's path to the CAA finals goes through Drexel or UNCW and then Charleston or Delaware. Any game could be tough. I don't think Drexel is a problem, but UNCW could be on the wrong day, and certainly CofC or Delaware. But, the biggest key, I think, is avoiding Towson in the semis. Given the way it could've shaped up this weekend, I think this the best possible path for them. It's the reward of being 1, while W&M and Towson have much tougher paths. Now they just have to back it up.

KenPom seems to agree that Hofstra lucked out with the best draw possible in its first two games. KenPom sees it the way I do, not only that NU could figure out the close games and has a great chance to get to the finals, but that it's NU, Towson and W&M (in that order) with the best chances to reach the finals. If that's true, then it worked out well that those three teams are all on the other side of the bracket, with Charleston and Delaware as the next two best bets to reach the finals, on HU's side of the bracket. Of course, part of the CofC and UDel percentages to reach the finals are that they'd have to go through HU, but I also take that as KenPom thinking NU, Towson and W&M are the most dangerous for HU to get through to win a title, with CofC and UDel next. So, same thing. Probably the best draw possible. But they also don't play the tournament on paper. We'll see!

https://twitter.com/kenpomeroy/status/1 ... 5502741504

[EvanJ]

Thanks, I was just about to do the same, so you saved me the work.

Amazingly agonizing season for the defending champs. Northeastern finishes 9-9 in CAA play, with 7 of their 9 losses by one possession. That's why I keep saying if they could somehow figure out how to pull out close games in D.C., they can make a run to the finals from the 6 seed, even if it's through Towson and W&M.

That's also partly why I think matchup-wise, this was probably the best possible outcome this weekend for Hofstra. They'll get to avoid William & Mary, Towson and Northeastern (possibly the three most dangerous teams for HU, though you could argue CofC or UDel instead of NU) until at least the finals, and would of course, only have to play one of those three. The Pride's path to the CAA finals goes through Drexel or UNCW and then Charleston or Delaware. Any game could be tough. I don't think Drexel is a problem, but UNCW could be on the wrong day, and certainly CofC or Delaware. But, the biggest key, I think, is avoiding Towson in the semis. Given the way it could've shaped up this weekend, I think this the best possible path for them. It's the reward of being 1, while W&M and Towson have much tougher paths. Now they just have to back it up.

KenPom seems to agree that Hofstra lucked out with the best draw possible in its first two games. KenPom sees it the way I do, not only that NU could figure out the close games and has a great chance to get to the finals, but that it's NU, Towson and W&M (in that order) with the best chances to reach the finals. If that's true, then it worked out well that those three teams are all on the other side of the bracket, with Charleston and Delaware as the next two best bets to reach the finals, on HU's side of the bracket. Of course, part of the CofC and UDel percentages to reach the finals are that they'd have to go through HU, but I also take that as KenPom thinking NU, Towson and W&M are the most dangerous for HU to get through to win a title, with CofC and UDel next. So, same thing. Probably the best draw possible. But they also don't play the tournament on paper. We'll see!

https://twitter.com/kenpomeroy/status/1 ... 5502741504

That's why you should look at the percentages for each round. By taking a probability and dividing by the previous one, you get the probability that a team wins in a round given that they reach it. We have a 79.1 percent chance of winning our Quarterfinal, a 48.4/79.1 = 61.2 percent of winning our Semifinal if we reach it, and a 29.6/48.4 = 61.2 percent chance of winning the Final if we reach it. The first 61.2 percent is slightly higher than the second one, but since the percents are rounded to the nearest tenth when they were probably calculated with more precision, it's impossible to know which 61.2 percent is higher. If I assume that games are independent events, it might be possible to calculate the probability of each team winning for every possible matchup. I might try that later this week.

https://caasports.com/news/2020/3/1/pai ... nship.aspx is what the CAA wrote. What was announced in advance so you might know it but that I didn't mention before is the the First Round and Quarterfinals require FloHoops, and the Semifinals and Final are on CBS Sports Network. I don't know if my hotel will get CBS Sports Network, but I don't need it for games I will be at.

[Jojogunne]

I started a new topic because all the seeds are known, and I want this topic to be about games, not possible seeds or traveling. Towson beat Northeastern 75-72 to make this schedule:

Saturday at 4:00 P.M. Game 1: Drexel (8) vs. UNCW (9)
Saturday at 6:30 P.M. Game 2: Elon (7) vs. James Madison (10)
Sunday at 12:00 P.M. Game 3: Hofstra (1) vs. Drexel or UNCW
Sunday at 2:30 P.M. Game 4: Charleston (4) vs. Delaware (5) (this is the only standing tie and Charleston swept Delaware)
Sunday at 6:00 P.M. Game 5: William & Mary (2) vs. Elon or James Madison
Sunday at 8:30 P.M. Game 6: Towson (3) vs. Northeastern (6)
Monday at 6:00 P.M. Game 7: Hofstra, Drexel, or UNCW vs. Charleston or Delaware
Monday at 8:30 P.M. Game 8: William & Mary, Elon, or James Madison vs. Towson or Northeastern
Tuesday at 7:00 P.M. Game 9: Final

Towson is hot.

[EvanJ]

According to http://www.barttorvik.com/conf.php?conf=CAA of the top six teams, Towson's win over Northeastern was good for both of them and us and bad for Charleston, Delaware, and W&M. Here's how the probabilities changed from that game:

Us: 27.9% to 28.4% (+0.5%)
Northeastern: 17.9% to 18.9% (+1.0%)
Towson: 13.2% to 15.2% (+2.0%)
W&M: 14.3% to 13.2% (-1.1%)
Delaware: 12.7% to 11.4% (-1.3%)
Charleston: 10.8% to 9.8% (-1.0%)
7 through 10: 3.3% to 3.1% (-0.2%)

Due to rounding, the probabilities before yesterday added to 100.1%.

[HUSID74]

I started a new topic because all the seeds are known, and I want this topic to be about games, not possible seeds or traveling. Towson beat Northeastern 75-72 to make this schedule:

Saturday at 4:00 P.M. Game 1: Drexel (8) vs. UNCW (9)
Saturday at 6:30 P.M. Game 2: Elon (7) vs. James Madison (10)
Sunday at 12:00 P.M. Game 3: Hofstra (1) vs. Drexel or UNCW
Sunday at 2:30 P.M. Game 4: Charleston (4) vs. Delaware (5) (this is the only standing tie and Charleston swept Delaware)
Sunday at 6:00 P.M. Game 5: William & Mary (2) vs. Elon or James Madison
Sunday at 8:30 P.M. Game 6: Towson (3) vs. Northeastern (6)
Monday at 6:00 P.M. Game 7: Hofstra, Drexel, or UNCW vs. Charleston or Delaware
Monday at 8:30 P.M. Game 8: William & Mary, Elon, or James Madison vs. Towson or Northeastern
Tuesday at 7:00 P.M. Game 9: Final

Towson is hot.

So are we...won 9 of ten!!!!

[Wags]

I started a new topic because all the seeds are known, and I want this topic to be about games, not possible seeds or traveling. Towson beat Northeastern 75-72 to make this schedule:

Saturday at 4:00 P.M. Game 1: Drexel (8) vs. UNCW (9)
Saturday at 6:30 P.M. Game 2: Elon (7) vs. James Madison (10)
Sunday at 12:00 P.M. Game 3: Hofstra (1) vs. Drexel or UNCW
Sunday at 2:30 P.M. Game 4: Charleston (4) vs. Delaware (5) (this is the only standing tie and Charleston swept Delaware)
Sunday at 6:00 P.M. Game 5: William & Mary (2) vs. Elon or James Madison
Sunday at 8:30 P.M. Game 6: Towson (3) vs. Northeastern (6)
Monday at 6:00 P.M. Game 7: Hofstra, Drexel, or UNCW vs. Charleston or Delaware
Monday at 8:30 P.M. Game 8: William & Mary, Elon, or James Madison vs. Towson or Northeastern
Tuesday at 7:00 P.M. Game 9: Final

Towson is hot.

So are we...won 9 of ten!!!!

But the one loss was to Towson.

[EvanJ]

I tried to use the probabilities from KenPom to calculate the probability for us against every other team, but the math was too much work, and I might not have been able to do it. Taking a probability and dividing by the probability for the previous round tells the probability of winning given that we get to that round, but the conditional probabilities depend on the opponent. Our probability of winning the Semifinal given that we get there depends on if we face Charleston or Delaware. Furthermore, if you disagree with KenPom you'll disagree with the percentages.

[Flying Dutchmen]

The draw couldn't have worked out more perfectly for us. This is exactly what we wanted. The three teams most likely to beat us (W&M, Towson, Northeastern) are on the other side of the bracket. We have no excuses anyway, but it's almost like we drew up the bracket.

It seems like any of the top 6 could win it. I think Northeastern's odds are a little inflated by Pomeroy because of their 57 point win at Holy Cross, if that's just a 20 point win, they're in the middle of the pack. Plus Walker's injured. Personally, if there's one team I don't want to play, its W&M. I just think Knight is the biggest mismatch in the conference. Kante did an awesome job on him down in Williamsburg, but I think we have to protect Kante in this tournament, every team is going to try to get him in foul trouble now that he's become a major threat.

I'm biased and think we're the considerable favorites, but nobody in the CAA is in the top half of D-1 in defensive efficiency, so it really is a bit of a crap shoot. We've played poor defense since the second half of the UNCW game, with only some positive outbursts in the 2nd half against Delaware, and the last four minutes of the first half against JMU. Frankly, I don't think we're going to play tough defense in this tournament, too many minutes, can't afford foul trouble, can't expend too much defensive energy. We really just need to limit offensive rebounds, because we've blown up offensively the last 10 games, and we can outscore teams this season, we have the most firepower.

We've discussed the real value of having depth all year. Obviously you want it, but do you really need a strong bench to win the tournament. Of course, we're going to test that again this year, but I'm assuming there will be a point in the tournament where a starter is struggling and someone will need to step up.

I always go back to the '16 final, while a lot of people pin that loss on Juan'ya's shooting performance, the guy who had the bad game was DK. I'm not knocking Koon, he was awesome all year, and he really just needed a 4-5 minute stretch to clear his head, but we didn't trust anybody (JWF) to step in for more than a moment. Maybe if we give JWF more than 5 minutes in that game, we cut down the nets. That's Monday Morning QB stuff, but let's face it, Ray had a few duds down the stretch, Eli has struggled in the CAAT, do we trust going to Burgess or Trueheart if someone is struggling? We know our starters are going to do the heavy lifting, I just hope we trust the bench enough to bring us over the top, if need be.

[Wags]

It seems like any of the top 6 could win it. I think Northeastern's odds are a little inflated by Pomeroy because of their 57 point win at Holy Cross, if that's just a 20 point win, they're in the middle of the pack.

Can a single win, even by that much, affect the tournament probabilities that much, to make NU from 2nd to just middle of the pack? You may be right, just sounds like that's a lot for one game, even by such a big margin.

Regardless, the probabilities can say what they want, it all has to be proven on the floor.

Plus Walker's injured.

The announcers during the CBS Sports Network broadcast of Sunday's game between Towson and Northeastern said Walker should be ready to go for the tournament. But we'll see if that means 100% or impacted to a significant enough degree.

We've played poor defense since the second half of the UNCW game, with only some positive outbursts in the 2nd half against Delaware, and the last four minutes of the first half against JMU. Frankly, I don't think we're going to play tough defense in this tournament, too many minutes, can't afford foul trouble, can't expend too much defensive energy.

I wouldn't say the defense has been poor at all since the last UNCW game. Maybe in some stretches, but still pretty good on the whole. This is not the same defensive team that we saw in the past several years. It's been much better.

The offense carried the team to the win at Drexel, but I don't think the D was terrible that game. It was decent enough to stay in the game and win it with offense.

In the win at Delaware, HU only allowed 31 in each half and Delaware didn't do much from 3, especially Darling, who missed a lot. I'd say the D was good that game.

The Towson game, the D, the guarding wasn't bad, it was just not finishing the job by not being able to keep Towson off the glass for second chances. So again, I wouldn't call the D poor in that one.

I didn't see bad D against JMU in the first half other than a few open jumpers at the very beginning. Otherwise, they turned some steals and defense into offense. And then, they're up 61-33 at halftime, so I wouldn't judge the D as poor in that second half when it was all garbage time. A lot of JMU's second-half points came late in that one when HU already dialed it back with a huge second-half lead.

While you make a good point about minutes, foul trouble, saving energy, I think they know what has made them successful this year, and that's due in large part, to the D. They generally don't foul that much though, they are the ones who normally draw fouls on the opposition, instead. And they have allowed under 70 in about half their games this and are almost unbeatable when doing so (14-1, with the lone loss at the very end, by two, at Charleston), but mediocre (9-7) when allowing at least 70. They know that. The know they'll have to defend to win. If they can somehow pull away early against Drexel or UNCW, that'll help with saving some of that energy for the following two days.

[triplec2195]

There are so many intangibles that can determine the outcome of these games and we saw that when Juanya had an off shooting nite but we still took that game to overtime. I respectfully disagree with comments about teams that could give us trouble in this tourney. I really think that NE is overrated and once you get past Roland they aren't really any players that scare you and if their PG Walker is out they're in big trouble IMO. I don't really care about Ken Pom because these pundits are often wrong in their predictions. I do think their coach is good though. COC the same thing if Riller isn't having a big day I don't think you have too much to worry about and ditto with W&M after Knight. We're the team to beat here providing we don't lay an egg because we're very balanced offensively and are playing better D. I worry about teams that can pound us inside like Towson did but I don't foresee that happening again. IMO the team that has the most balance and that could give us real problems is Delaware. Even after Darling they have guys that score the ball especially in the paint. Mutts is a handful and he can give us problems. Of course we could lose to UNCW who beat W&M last month but this is highly unlikely. As someone already mentioned if Kante should get into foul trouble we could be in a world of hurt because Stafford really doesn't have the bulk to bang with the guys that are 240 or better. Schutte could although give us important minutes with his size.

It's three games in three days and I just don't put too much emphasis on fatigue. These games are so important that our guys will leave everything out there on the court in every game we play. Feeling cautiously quite optimistic.

[Mikey77]

Agree with Triplec's analysis, with one addition. The coaching staff needs to bring its A game as well. Joe needs to use Schutte and perhaps Hughes more when we are getting beat up in the paint like in the Towson game. He'll need to double-up and use two bigs at times in lieu of offense. He needs to properly utilize Trueheart as well who has been effective on the press due to his size and length. He can keep up with many guards and often interfere with the passing lanes. I'm not that concerned with fatigue. These guys a 21 or so years old and in shape. I don't think I've seen the players gassed except in the first W&M game which I understand was due to flue. They have to bring the mental toughness they exhibited in the second Delaware and W&M games, as well as in the last JMU game. Unfortunately, I didn't see the UCLA game, past my bedtime.

[triplec2195]

Agree with Triplec's analysis, with one addition. The coaching staff needs to bring its A game as well. Joe needs to use Schutte and perhaps Hughes more when we are getting beat up in the paint like in the Towson game. He'll need to double-up and use two bigs at times in lieu of offense. He needs to properly utilize Trueheart as well who has been effective on the press due to his size and length. He can keep up with many guards and often interfere with the passing lanes. I'm not that concerned with fatigue. These guys a 21 or so years old and in shape. I don't think I've seen the players gassed except in the first W&M game which I understand was due to flue. They have to bring the mental toughness they exhibited in the second Delaware and W&M games, as well as in the last JMU game. Unfortunately, I didn't see the UCLA game, past my bedtime.

Mikey the coaching staff obviously but that's a given I don't really think that any of these teams will surprise one another they pretty much know each other quite well but I will bring this up its something that nobody talked about after the last game. I don't know if anyone gave it a second thought but it surprised me to see Desure taking and hitting numerous shots(3's) from the left corner. Just like I have never seen Desure dunk the ball I don't ever remember him posting up in the corner to shoot three's from there. That's a Coburn and Ray spot. I don't know what others think but he's usually calling plays at the top of the key. Also Trueheart while he has skills and size he often gets beat off the dribble and guys drive on him and score off the glass which is true of Kante as well.

[Mikey77]

Totally concede that Trueheart has his limitations. My only point is that he's been effective on the press where he adds size and length against smaller guards.

[triplec2195]

Yes size and wingspan very true Mikey and you don't realize how big these guys are until you are actually on the floor near or next to them. They're huge and imposing. BTW Mikey don't expect to see Hughes I just can't expect any scenario where this could happen other then a major foul trouble drama.

[EvanJ]

Unfortunately, I didn't see the UCLA game, past my bedtime.

Do you get Pac-12 Networks (it is regionalized, so the name is plural)? You can only watch online if you sign in through a TV provider than you get Pac-12 Networks with. If you don't get Pac-12 Networks, the only way to watch was illegally.

It seems like any of the top 6 could win it. I think Northeastern's odds are a little inflated by Pomeroy because of their 57 point win at Holy Cross, if that's just a 20 point win, they're in the middle of the pack.

Can a single win, even by that much, affect the tournament probabilities that much, to make NU from 2nd to just middle of the pack? You may be right, just sounds like that's a lot for one game, even by such a big margin.

Regardless, the probabilities can say what they want, it all has to be proven on the floor.

KenPom rates each team in points per game compared to average. Northeastern is 143rd at +1.96. They have played 30 games, so decreasing one margin of victory from 57 to 20 would be 37/30 = 1.23. 1.96-1.23 = 0.73, which would drop them 19 spots to 162nd. The 19 spots would include falling behind Towson and Charleston. It may not be linear, and I think excessive margin of victory should have decreasing weight. 57/20 = 2.85, but I don't think winning by 57 should help 2.85 times as much as winning by 20. I think all margins of victory of 30 or higher should be treated the same, and margins of 20 to 30 could be 90 percent, 91 percent, etc. of the maximum until 30 is 100 percent. Charleston is +0.81, so if the excessive margin of victory has less weight, decreasing Northeastern's margin from 57 to 20 would probably keep them ahead of Towson.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-baske ... ournaments had four people predict the winner of all 32 conference tournaments. The CAA and Big Ten were the only conferences to have each person pick a different team. Charleston, Delaware, us, and W&M were picked. The four Big Ten teams picked don't include first place Maryland.

[Wags]

Unfortunately, I didn't see the UCLA game, past my bedtime.

Do you get Pac-12 Networks (it is regionalized, so the name is plural)? You can only watch online if you sign in through a TV provider than you get Pac-12 Networks with. If you don't get Pac-12 Networks, the only way to watch was illegally.

It seems like any of the top 6 could win it. I think Northeastern's odds are a little inflated by Pomeroy because of their 57 point win at Holy Cross, if that's just a 20 point win, they're in the middle of the pack.

Can a single win, even by that much, affect the tournament probabilities that much, to make NU from 2nd to just middle of the pack? You may be right, just sounds like that's a lot for one game, even by such a big margin.

Regardless, the probabilities can say what they want, it all has to be proven on the floor.

KenPom rates each team in points per game compared to average. Northeastern is 143rd at +1.96. They have played 30 games, so decreasing one margin of victory from 57 to 20 would be 37/30 = 1.23. 1.96-1.23 = 0.73, which would drop them 19 spots to 162nd. The 19 spots would include falling behind Towson and Charleston. It may not be linear, and I think excessive margin of victory should have decreasing weight. 57/20 = 2.85, but I don't think winning by 57 should help 2.85 times as much as winning by 20. I think all margins of victory of 30 or higher should be treated the same, and margins of 20 to 30 could be 90 percent, 91 percent, etc. of the maximum until 30 is 100 percent. Charleston is +0.81, so if the excessive margin of victory has less weight, decreasing Northeastern's margin from 57 to 20 would probably keep them ahead of Towson.

I completely agree. Way too much weight is put on margin of victory, especially for a non-conference game early in the year. Northeastern's chances of winning the CAA tournament shouldn't be any better in March because they beat Holy Cross by 57 than if they would've won that game by 20 or 30 in November. Has very little to do with how they might play in D.C.

[triplec2195]

I will keep on saying although NE is a solid team for the most part they're not the team to beat and neither is COC. All these teams except for us and Delaware will ride their success on their star player N.E. Roland, COC Riller but we have 5 guys that can score as does Delaware. Last year we looked to Justin when the game was on the line now what player does the opposing team key on?? The fact that we played strong in front of big crowds on the road is a feather in our cap and should make us the favorite to win plus being there doesn't hurt us either.

[Flying Dutchmen]

I will keep on saying although NE is a solid team for the most part they're not the team to beat and neither is COC. All these teams except for us and Delaware will ride their success on their star player N.E. Roland, COC Riller but we have 5 guys that can score as does Delaware. Last year we looked to Justin when the game was on the line now what player does the opposing team key on?? The fact that we played strong in front of big crowds on the road is a feather in our cap and should make us the favorite to win plus being there doesn't hurt us either.

Delaware has completely rode Nate Darling to where they are now. They might be the biggest culprit of hinging their success on one player in the CAA. He's second in the league in minutes behind Buie, and he has to be averaging around 25 since February 1st. Everyone does to an extent, if you shut down Fobbs, Towson is going to struggle to get open looks, W&M obviously with Knight. I think W&M has the best secondary players besides us though.

Our X factor has been that Eli has greatly improved getting to the basket this season. It's made him a true dual threat and it's given us a presence inside to accompany Kante's work around the hoop and not make us over-reliant on the 3 ball and mid-range jump shots, like earlier in the season. He's kind of been the unsung hero the last 4 years, always playing second fiddle, but Eli had his best stretch this past month and I hope he dominates the CAAT.