2020 CAA Men's Basketball Tournament Seed Scenarios

[EvanJ]

I was think about what we need to clinch the 1 seed next week. Here's what we need:

Wins at Drexel and Delaware would guarantee we have no more than 5 losses.
Six of the other nine teams have at least 6 losses, and us beating Delaware would give them 6 losses.
W&M (10-5) is at Towson (9-5) on Thursday, so one of them will lose.
If the winner of that game loses on Saturday, we can clinch the 1 seed. That will mean needing W&M to lose at JMU or Towson to lose hosting Elon, both of which are unlikely, but Elon has improved. Elon at Towson will be at 2:00 P.M., with us at Delaware and W&M at JMU at 4:00 P.M. If we beat Drexel, Towson beats W&M, and Elon beats Towson, we will play Delaware knowing a win would clinch the 1 seed. If we beat Drexel and W&M beats Towson, we will clinch the 1 seed with a win and W&M losing at JMU at the same time.

Winning both games next week would clinch at least a tie for first.

I'll try posting whenever any seed is clinched because it could affect us.

[triplec2195]

In reality just looking at this in simple terms we only have 3 losses everybody else has at least 5. I’m banking on us winning both games at home which means that we only need to win one of the two games next week. I realize we want to make a statement against Delaware but a win at Drexel puts us in a very good place to win the conference win or lose at Delaware. The Delaware game should be a big time war tourney like game.


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[Wags]

In reality just looking at this in simple terms we only have 3 losses everybody else has at least 5. I’m banking on us winning both games at home which means that we only need to win one of the two games next week. I realize we want to make a statement against Delaware but a win at Drexel puts us in a very good place to win the conference win or lose at Delaware. The Delaware game should be a big time war tourney like game.

Can't bank on anything in the CAA.

Final two home games this year:
vs. Towson
vs. JMU (Senior Day)

Final two home games last year:
vs. 9th-place Towson - needed 2 OTs to win.
vs. 8th-place JMU (Senior Day) - lost in OT, ending an 18-game home court winning streak.

[triplec2195]

In reality just looking at this in simple terms we only have 3 losses everybody else has at least 5. I’m banking on us winning both games at home which means that we only need to win one of the two games next week. I realize we want to make a statement against Delaware but a win at Drexel puts us in a very good place to win the conference win or lose at Delaware. The Delaware game should be a big time war tourney like game.

Can't bank on anything in the CAA.

Final two home games this year:
vs. Towson
vs. JMU (Senior Day)

Final two home games last year:
vs. 9th-place Towson - needed 2 OTs to win.
vs. 8th-place JMU (Senior Day) - lost in OT, ending an 18-game home court winning streak.

Agreed and Towson is a decent team but I'll tell u this we won't lose to JMU this year on senior day I would be totally shocked if that replays itself and this could be a very big game depending on what we do this week.

[Wags]

In reality just looking at this in simple terms we only have 3 losses everybody else has at least 5. I’m banking on us winning both games at home which means that we only need to win one of the two games next week. I realize we want to make a statement against Delaware but a win at Drexel puts us in a very good place to win the conference win or lose at Delaware. The Delaware game should be a big time war tourney like game.

Can't bank on anything in the CAA.

Final two home games this year:
vs. Towson
vs. JMU (Senior Day)

Final two home games last year:
vs. 9th-place Towson - needed 2 OTs to win.
vs. 8th-place JMU (Senior Day) - lost in OT, ending an 18-game home court winning streak.

Agreed and Towson is a decent team but I'll tell u this we won't lose to JMU this year on senior day I would be totally shocked if that replays itself and this could be a very big game depending on what we do this week.

I think this is finally their year in the CAA. I think they hold onto the 1 seed and win the CAA tourney (mainly, because I don't see any other team as a big threat to them this year as in past years), but I'm just saying, we know the past history in this conference. When you only need to look as far back as last year, we can take nothing for granted, not even in the final two home games.

They are in good shape, though. And if they take care of business (winning at Drexel) and get some help (If NU wins at UDel and W&M loses at Towson) on Thursday, they could be in great shape - would then be at least 2 games up on everyone before the game at Delaware on Saturday.

[triplec2195]

Delaware scares me a bit and we will see how the Sat. Game plays out. They have a lot of good players and height. Darling, Anderson and Painter to a lesser extent but the kid Mutts they need to contain him which is a tall order for Coburn to play one on one. Maybe Trueheart will have to get some minutes on him but he can’t go off for 30 points that’s ridiculous as in our first meeting. N/E also a dark horse team very competitive with a good coach and if Knight gets in a groove who knows. I’m less worried about COC.


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[dan10]

The difference between teams this season is razor thin.

[Wags]

Delaware scares me a bit and we will see how the Sat. Game plays out. They have a lot of good players and height. Darling, Anderson and Painter to a lesser extent but the kid Mutts they need to contain him which is a tall order for Coburn to play one on one. Maybe Trueheart will have to get some minutes on him but he can’t go off for 30 points that’s ridiculous as in our first meeting. N/E also a dark horse team very competitive with a good coach and if Knight gets in a groove who knows. I’m less worried about COC.

Even if they were to get the 1 seed with a loss on Saturday, I think they still need to win that game from a psychological standpoint. You don't want to meet Delaware in D.C. with Delaware knowing they swept you in the regular season.

[triplec2195]

Yes very true or the flip side of the coin it would be difficult to beat us three times. I like the potential battle here.


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[Wags]

Yes very true or the flip side of the coin it would be difficult to beat us three times. I like the potential battle here.

Yeah, thought of that, but I think Delaware knowing they did it twice would help them and put a bit of doubt in HU's minds in a potential third meeting. So, better to win the most recent meeting and have a split in case they meet in the tourney.

[triplec2195]

Very much want to beat them on their court but lets beat Drexel first, no letdowns.

[Wags]

Here are the possible 1 seed scenarios for HU this weekend:

* 2-0 road trip clinches at least a share of the regular-season title.
* 2-0 road trip and no better than 1-1 weekends for Delaware, Towson and William & Mary clinch the regular-season title outright.

With Towson playing W&M tonight, one of those is assured of having no better than a 1-1 weekend, so if Hofstra goes 2-0, it would come down to Towson or W&M losing on Sat to clinch by this weekend, though that's not likely since Towson hosts Elon and W&M is at JMU on Sat - but ya never know.

[Wags]

Northeastern down 29-6 at Delaware. Wow.

Maybe the Hens are indeed the ones for HU to fear in D.C.

[EvanJ]

The lead peaked at 66-38, and it ended 70-48. Darling led all scorers with 17, and Roland scored 16. Delaware shot twos well, and Northeastern didn't shoot any type of shot well. Northeastern's chances at leading Division I in free throw percentage went down as they shot 2-6, including 0-4 by Jason Strong, who entered shooting .684 with 0.7 attempts per game. Their free throw percentage is down to .792, and we're up to .780 and ninth in Division I.

JMU can't get better than the 9 seed. UNCW trails Drexel by 3 games, and the combination of teams beaten and games left means that UNCW would win the tiebreaker if they win three and Drexel loses three. UNCW will be 8, 9, or 10. Above that, the possible tiebreakers are too complicated for me to try figuring out each team's possible seed range. Maybe I'll do that after Saturday.

[Wags]

The lead peaked at 66-38, and it ended 70-48. Darling led all scorers with 17, and Roland scored 16. Delaware shot twos well, and Northeastern didn't shoot any type of shot well. Northeastern's chances at leading Division I in free throw percentage went down as they shot 2-6, including 0-4 by Jason Strong, who entered shooting .684 with 0.7 attempts per game. Their free throw percentage is down to .792, and we're up to .780 and ninth in Division I.

JMU can't get better than the 9 seed. UNCW trails Drexel by 3 games, and the combination of teams beaten and games left means that UNCW would win the tiebreaker if they win three and Drexel loses three. UNCW will be 8, 9, or 10. Above that, the possible tiebreakers are too complicated for me to try figuring out each team's possible seed range. Maybe I'll do that after Saturday.

Wouldn't have thought this a couple of weeks ago, but Hofstra could see Drexel again as the Dragons (after starting 5-2 in the CAA) have lost 7 of 8 and have slipped all the way down to 8th.

Northeastern's earlier struggles and last night's poor game aside, I'd still like to see them fall to 7th so they have to play an extra game instead of possibly making a run to the finals as the 6 seed, through the 3 and the 2. They're in 6th, at 7-8, with Elon lurking right behind them, in 7th, at 7-9. GIve Elon credit. They could be a dangerous team that could upset someone in the CAAT. They've gone the opposite direction of Drexel, going 6-2 since starting 1-7 in the CAA.

[EvanJ]

Those two losses by Elon are by 23 hosting us and by 6 hosting Delaware. Given how we've done against Elon, should we hope to be the 1 and have Elon be the 7, beat the 2, beat the 3 or 6, and face us in the Final playing four consecutive days? If Elon gets the 6, they could do something similar and beat the 3 and 2 or 7, but then they wouldn't be in their fourth consecutive day in the Final. Since we rarely use our bench, it could help to play a team in the Final who played in the First Round.

[Wags]

Those two losses by Elon are by 23 hosting us and by 6 hosting Delaware. Given how we've done against Elon, should we hope to be the 1 and have Elon be the 7, beat the 2, beat the 3 or 6, and face us in the Final playing four consecutive days? If Elon gets the 6, they could do something similar and beat the 3 and 2 or 7, but then they wouldn't be in their fourth consecutive day in the Final. Since we rarely use our bench, it could help to play a team in the Final who played in the First Round.

Matchup-wise, yes, and although I think Elon could be dangerous for one upset, I don't see them going on an extended run from the 6 seed to the finals the way I think Northeastern could if they are able to get their act together. That's why I'd rather see Elon get the 6 and Northeastern be at 7.

[triplec2195]

There r so many possibilities but I'll take a matchup against Elon all day. We matchup well against them and their biggest starter is only 6'6". We would have to beat them for a 3rd time but honestly don't think that will be a problem. We beat Delaware three times last year so its very doable. I would say more then any other team in this league I would like to see someone knock off Delaware because I think they could be our biggest roadblock to the NCAA's. I don't think we matchup in terms of size well against W&M but our guards tip the scale in our favor in that matchup. Delaware has a lot of weapons and has size but if we get someone who can smother Darling we have a good chance.

[triplec2195]

Those two losses by Elon are by 23 hosting us and by 6 hosting Delaware. Given how we've done against Elon, should we hope to be the 1 and have Elon be the 7, beat the 2, beat the 3 or 6, and face us in the Final playing four consecutive days? If Elon gets the 6, they could do something similar and beat the 3 and 2 or 7, but then they wouldn't be in their fourth consecutive day in the Final. Since we rarely use our bench, it could help to play a team in the Final who played in the First Round.

Matchup-wise, yes, and although I think Elon could be dangerous for one upset, I don't see them going on an extended run from the 6 seed to the finals the way I think Northeastern could if they are able to get their act together. That's why I'd rather see Elon get the 6 and Northeastern be at 7.

For me Wags NE doesn't worry me they're a bit like COC. They have one great player but after that their skill level drops off. NE plays the best D in the league and has a good coach. Delaware is a more balanced team with a lot of weapons and create matchup problems for their opponents.

[Wags]

Those two losses by Elon are by 23 hosting us and by 6 hosting Delaware. Given how we've done against Elon, should we hope to be the 1 and have Elon be the 7, beat the 2, beat the 3 or 6, and face us in the Final playing four consecutive days? If Elon gets the 6, they could do something similar and beat the 3 and 2 or 7, but then they wouldn't be in their fourth consecutive day in the Final. Since we rarely use our bench, it could help to play a team in the Final who played in the First Round.

Matchup-wise, yes, and although I think Elon could be dangerous for one upset, I don't see them going on an extended run from the 6 seed to the finals the way I think Northeastern could if they are able to get their act together. That's why I'd rather see Elon get the 6 and Northeastern be at 7.

For me Wags NE doesn't worry me they're a bit like COC. They have one great player but after that their skill level drops off. NE plays the best D in the league and has a good coach. Delaware is a more balanced team with a lot of weapons and create matchup problems for their opponents.

Agree, Delaware is a bigger problem, which might see again tomorrow. But defense and coaching are no small things, as is a guy like Roland, who can go off for 30 or 40. All it takes is one cold night for HU (and they've had plenty earlier this season), and they could lose to a team like that. Though they're struggling now, I'd still be wary of NU when the CAA stage is the biggest. So, given the choice between NU and Elon being the 7 seed, let NU be the 7 to help the odds for HU.