MBB Game 24 at William & Mary on 2/1/2020 at 4:00 P.M.

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EvanJ
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MBB Game 24 at William & Mary on 2/1/2020 at 4:00 P.M.

Post by EvanJ »

https://gohofstra.com/news/2020/1/31/me ... tribe.aspx is Hofstra's preview titled "MBB: Pride Poised For Showdown With Tribe." The six links do not include Game Notes. W&M hasn't written a preview yet.

A W&M fan said he wants them to end their slump at shooting threes, and I responded that we've improved at defending threes as our opponents are 22-98 (.224) in our last five games.

Charleston plays at Towson at 2:00 P.M. If Charleston wins, W&M ends the day in first. If Towson and we win, we go to first. That's because we beat Towson and lost to Charleston, and W&M beat Charleston and lost to Towson.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourn ... cketology/ uses simulations and has us the favorite to win the CAA Tournament at 21%, which is tied with Rider for the least likely teams to make the NCAA Tournament among the 68 in their current bracket. It has Charleston at 20 percent, Northeastern at a lower 20 percent, Towson at 14 percent, and W&M at a lower 14 percent. Delaware's 7 percent is the only other one that isn't tiny.

http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=282057 will have statistics.
EvanJ
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Re: MBB Game 24 at William & Mary on 2/1/2020 at 4:00 P.M.

Post by EvanJ »

https://tribeathletics.com/news/2020/1/ ... arena.aspx is W&M's preview titled "CAA Leaders Collide in Kaplan on Saturday Afternoon."

https://static.tribeathletics.com/custo ... ofstra.pdf is W&M's Game Notes.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/sidearm.sites/ ... game24.pdf is our Game Notes, which weren't made as soon as our preview was. Buie's 476 assists are 13 behind Jenkins for fifth in Hofstra history and the most by a Hofstra player in the CAA. Passing Jenkins would give Buie the most assists since career leader Claxton, who graduated in 2000 before some students were born. We don't play on Thursday, host Northeastern next Saturday, and Buie is on pace to pass Jenkins in assists on Thursday February 13 hosting Charleston on CBS Sports Network. Buie is 31 steals behind Jenkins, so they could finish close together. Jenkins is fifth in Hofstra history and first in Hofstra CAA history in assists and steals.

If Towson wins, we will play to determine if we end the day first or fourth. That's because we win a three-way tie with Towson and W&M, and we lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to Charleston. If Charleston wins, we will end the day third. If we win, we will finish last in the three-way tie with W&M and Charleston. If we lose, we will be behind W&M and Charleston and we win the head-to-head tiebreaker over Towson. We cannot end the day in second.
HUSID74
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Re: MBB Game 24 at William & Mary on 2/1/2020 at 4:00 P.M.

Post by HUSID74 »

This is a huge game for us. Not only because first place is at stake, although it's still fairly early in the season, but W&M destroyed us at home giving us our first CAA loss earlier.
I think this is a tough matchup for us with their two big guys. I think we will need to go zone to protect the inside and hope their 3-point shooters continue their slumps.
On our end hopefully Kante can slow down Knight and we get strong games from our four guards...
Most sites have us as 2 point underdogs which is less than the 3.19 points Sagarin gives for the home court advantage.
triplec2195
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Re: MBB Game 24 at William & Mary on 2/1/2020 at 4:00 P.M.

Post by triplec2195 »

We don't matchup well against this team but if we keep the 7 foot kid from hitting open three's we will be in a much better place then the first game. We have been playing man to man a lot in the first half so maybe we let Kante try to handle Knight one on one just don't know its risky he could get into foul trouble quickly. They didn't go to Knight much in the first game because they didn't need to. They opened up a big lead and coasted but we have better guards and this game will be different. I hope Coburn brings his A game we will need to rebound and play D. The kid Blair also a good player coming off the bench on both sides of the ball even though he only averages 4.3 a game. I just think that keeping Van Vliet from doing what he did in the first game and taking good shots is the key to this game.
EvanJ
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Re: MBB Game 24 at William & Mary on 2/1/2020 at 4:00 P.M.

Post by EvanJ »

In terms of which team is better without home court, the NET and RPI say W&M, and ESPN's BPI, Sagarin, KenPom, and Seven Overtimes say us.

Edit: http://defiantlydutch.blogspot.com/2020 ... -mary.html is Jerry Beach's "I'll Be Quirky: William & Mary." Our win at Elon was our eighth unicorn score of the season, which is the first time we ever won by that score. Our only two unicorn scores in CAA games were against Elon. We had ten unicorn scores last season. Jerry cited me by saying:

"A CONVINCING SWEEP
The Dutchmen swept the season series from Elon, whom they beat twice by at least 20 points. This marks the third time in the CAA era Dutchmen have swept a regular season series with a pair of wins by at least 20 points. They swept Delaware (91-46 and 92-70) last season and Drexel (86-58 and 81-57) during the 2014-15 season. Thanks to @EvanJ3535, who inspired this note by noting the lopsided 2014-15 sweep of Drexel."

Pemberton became the fourteenth player this season to have at least 26 points, at least 7 rebounds, and at least 7 assists. He became the third Hofstra player from 2010-2011 to the present to do that after Jenkins and Green, so JWF didn't do that. Jenkins did it against Division III Farmingdale State.

Coburn became the first Hofstra player to score at least 20 and have a scoreless game in the same season since Taran Buie in 2012-2013, which was the season of the thieves. He became the first player to go scoreless in at least 25 minutes since Buie in the 2019 CAA Semifinal overtime win over Delaware. Coburn went scoreless at Northeastern this season, which was in 18 minutes. According to the College Basketball at Sports-Reference Play Index, Hofstra has won the last eight times in which a player had at least 18 scoreless minutes. That's seven games because Coburn (25 minutes) and Burgess (19 minutes) were both scoreless at Elon. Before that, Hofstra lost 15 of 16 when a player had at least 18 scoreless minutes, with the only win when Malik Nichols had 19 scoreless minutes hosting Elon on February 7, 2015. From 2010-2011 to the present, Hofstra has had three players have at least 18 scoreless minutes in wins over Elon, who wasn't even in the CAA the whole time, and never had three players have at least 18 scoreless minutes in wins over any other team.

KenPom predicts us to win 74-72, and Jerry quotes a scout who predicts us to win.
Last edited by EvanJ on Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
HUSID74
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Re: MBB Game 24 at William & Mary on 2/1/2020 at 4:00 P.M.

Post by HUSID74 »

Violet hasn't been very good since his game against us. We will open in a zone and dare them to make threes.
EvanJ
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Re: MBB Game 24 at William & Mary on 2/1/2020 at 4:00 P.M.

Post by EvanJ »

Our lead is down from 5-0 to 5-4, and W&M has the ball. Coburn had 1 miss, 1 foul, and 1 turnover, and 3:20 in he was replaced by Trueheart, who blocked a shot.

Edit: W&M led 9-8, we went up 14-9, and we lead 16-12. Knight and Van Vliet have 2 assists. Buie has 1 assist, and W&M's two point guards, Bryce Barnes and Thornton Scott, don't have any assists. Pemberton has 8 points. Buie and Barnes have 4.

Edit: After Van Vliet made 2 free throws to go down 16-14, we're on a 12-2 run to lead 28-16, and W&M called timeout with 8:19 left in the half as opposed to waiting for under 8. Buie didn't score in the first sixth of the game, but has 12 points in 4:17. Van Vliet shot field goals 0-5.

Edit: Our lead went down to 5 and was 5 to 7 from 6:43 to 1:22. With 1:22 left, Van Vliet made a three. He missed his first 6 field goals and had 2 free throws and 1 two before that. The last 45 seconds were great for us. With 0:44 left, Thornton Scott missed a three. Hofstra didn't use their use-it-or-lose-it timeout, and it worked. Coburn made a three with 15:14 left, which was 7 seconds after he re-entered, and had only 3 until he made a three with 18 seconds left. The announcer said it missed, but he spoke to soon because it hit the back rim went up, and then in. With 6.5 seconds left, Scott had his second bad thing of the last 45 seconds when he threw the ball out of bounds. Hofstra didn't use their use-it-or-lose-it timeout, and it worked. Coburn made a three with 3 seconds left to go up 43-33, and the clock ran out before W&M could shoot. At Elon, Elon had momentum when they got closer at the end of the half. W&M had momentum that they lost at the end of the half. Buie shot 5-8 and has 12 points, 2 rebounds, and 4 assists. Pemberton shot 4-5 and has 12 points and 3 rebounds. Coburn shot 3-7, with three 3-5, and scored 9. Kante shot 3-3 and scored 6, but missed a free throw with a chance at a three-point play. Ray shot 1-6, missed all 3 threes, and shot free throws 1-2 to score 3. Burgess scored 1 with his first career free throw, but he missed the second one. He was 0-2 free throws before today. Kante leads us with 5 rebounds, and is on pace for a double-double. We have a 2-to-1 ratio of 8 assists to 4 turnovers, and also only committed 4 fouls, with nobody having 2. We have 3 players with 1 steal, and Trueheart has our only block, which is his fourth of the season. The announcer said Knight has a double-double, but not yet. He has 8 points and 11 rebounds. He has 5 offensive rebounds, which led to 6 of his points. Bryce Barnes has 6 points, and he has 5 rebounds while being 5'11''. Van Vliet scored 7 but shot field goals 2-9. Miguel Ayesa scored 6 off the bench by shooting 2-3, with all of the attempts being threes. W&M had 23 rebounds, which is 8 more than us, because of Knight. They also had 8 assists, and their 6 fouls and 8 turnovers were more than we had. They had three players with 1 block, and 2 steals, which were both by Barnes. W&M made half of their threes, but shot twos 8-23 (.348). Van Vliet's 2 makes were their only free throw attempts. We shot free throws 5-8, and Pemberton made 3 after being fouled in the act of shooting a three. We shot 16-31 (.516) including threes 6-15 (.400).
Last edited by EvanJ on Sat Feb 01, 2020 6:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
HUSID74
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Re: MBB Game 24 at William & Mary on 2/1/2020 at 4:00 P.M.

Post by HUSID74 »

We are up 10, hitting our threes at 40 percent. Knight getting his but we're holding our own.

Keep it going boys!
Cards
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Re: MBB Game 24 at William & Mary on 2/1/2020 at 4:00 P.M.

Post by Cards »

Good first half

Tough to do, but have to team up and keep Knight off the boards. Without his offensive rebs (he already has 11 total rebs), we would be up by another 6.

W&M just announced a new $57 M campus arena and athletics facility.
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Re: MBB Game 24 at William & Mary on 2/1/2020 at 4:00 P.M.

Post by EvanJ »

We're off to a bad restart on 2-7 shooting. W&M is 1 closer at 47-38, and Bryce Barnes will shoot 2 free throws. Coburn made a 2 to be our third player in double-digits.

JMU is pounding UNCW 50-29, and Elon leads Northeastern 43-37.

Edit: After Barnes made both free throws to go down 47-40, we took our largest lead. Buie made a two, Knight did an illegal screen for an offensive foul, Coburn made a three to tied Buie for the lead with 14, Thornton Scott missed a three, Knight committed his third foul 31 seconds after his second foul, Kante scored two when the announcer said Knight has to be careful defending, and W&M called timeout with 14:11 left. Knight dunked to go down 54-42, and Kante scored two to reach double-digits and go up 56-42.
Last edited by EvanJ on Sat Feb 01, 2020 6:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Cards
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Re: MBB Game 24 at William & Mary on 2/1/2020 at 4:00 P.M.

Post by Cards »

Up by 14 with 14 min left.

Knight picked up 3rd foul. Keep giving the ball to IK and let guards drive the lane.

Edit - up by 21 with 11 left. HU pouring it on!! Great team effort.
Last edited by Cards on Sat Feb 01, 2020 6:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Flying Dutchmen
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Re: MBB Game 24 at William & Mary on 2/1/2020 at 4:00 P.M.

Post by Flying Dutchmen »

BEAST!
EvanJ
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Re: MBB Game 24 at William & Mary on 2/1/2020 at 4:00 P.M.

Post by EvanJ »

Ray scored 5 in 41 seconds to make all of our starters in double-digits and give us 50 percent more points at 63-42. A W&M fan said we're not great and lumped Northeastern as a weaker win with the bottom three because Northeastern isn't above .500 in the CAA. I said putting Northeastern in the bottom group is ridiculous. W&M's announcer mistakenly said that Kante became eligible after the first semester. Barnes scored 2, and Pemberton scored 2 to tied Buie and Coburn. We have three players with 14, one with 12, and one with 10. Our bench hasn't made any field goals and has Burgess' 1-2 free throws.

Edit: We led by 25 at 71-46 and we called timeout after Pemberton scored 2 to go up 73-49. In between, Knight had a three-point play. Trueheart got an offensive rebound and missed right by the basket. He had a steal to start the last possession, although it looked to me like Ray stole it. The only suspense is if Kante (8 rebounds) and Buie (7 assists) can get double-doubles, and who will lead in scoring. Buie, Coburn, and Knight have 17, and Pemberton has 16.
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Re: MBB Game 24 at William & Mary on 2/1/2020 at 4:00 P.M.

Post by daHUPride »

WOW!

Is it possible we are a better road team?

Impressive road stand.
EvanJ
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Re: MBB Game 24 at William & Mary on 2/1/2020 at 4:00 P.M.

Post by EvanJ »

Kante got his tenth rebound for a double-double. W&M's second, third, and fourth leading scorers for the season didn't play well.

Northeastern took the lead at Elon, but it's 64-62 with 2:11 left.
HUSID74
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Re: MBB Game 24 at William & Mary on 2/1/2020 at 4:00 P.M.

Post by HUSID74 »

PAYBACK TIME! Couldn't have been against anyone better!

FIRST PLACE!
Cards
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Re: MBB Game 24 at William & Mary on 2/1/2020 at 4:00 P.M.

Post by Cards »

Payback's a Bi***!!

Very good game for HU. Everyone contributed. Good game plan.
The Shadow
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Re: MBB Game 24 at William & Mary on 2/1/2020 at 4:00 P.M.

Post by The Shadow »

7 games left in the regular CAA season, with 5 at the Mack Arena, and 2 at DU and UD. All the long regular season road trips are completed, and it looks like the team is finally healthy. Coach Farrelly mentioned on the post game that at the previous W&M game, TC was sick which contributed to the 27 point defeat. Time to rest up before next Saturday's NU game. NU has now lost 3 in a row, so I expect an improvement in their performance. Also, what a difference in IK in January and February from November and December. I guess I should just listen to the coaching staff when they mentioned that IK would turn it around.
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Re: MBB Game 24 at William & Mary on 2/1/2020 at 4:00 P.M.

Post by Wags »

What a road trip!

They not only avoid getting paid back for a 27-point win by beating Elon bad again (by 23), but they also pay back the team that beat them by 27 with another 23-point win.

Pemberton and Buie efficient in both games.

Coburn has the good bounceback game after the disappearing act at Elon. You just wish he'd play that way the whole game, even when he misses 3s early. It's night and day. He's invisible the whole game when he starts cold from 3 and he plays a great game when he starts hot from 3.

EDIT: There was so much good to go around, I forgot to mention this earlier, but Kante came up big on this trip as well.

W&M's start is also proving to what I thought it would be - somewhat of a fluke. Always thought it would come down to HU, CofC and NU, but NU has really disappointed (lost again today, at Elon). Still think NU could be very dangerous in the CAAT though.

Huge statement win. They showed that it was simply an off game in the loss to W&M at home and in the process, instead of falling two games out of 1st, they are tied for 1st with 7 to play. In good shape now. The only thing is, they seem so much better and so much more comfortable on the road than they do at home, you hope the slew of home games and limited amount of road games they have remaining work to their favor (as they should) instead of the other way around. I think it will though. Still much work to do, but I think they've found their game and their identity now.

And the defense - wow, another Mihalich-coached team allowing in the 60s?! Years ago, we never thought we'd see this. But look at the points they've allowed in the past several games: 60, 63, 59, 73, 69, 61 (4-2 in that stretch, winning all four, three of them easily, when they allowed 59-63). Finally with one of Joe's teams. Good to see! The D has been as consistent as I've seen it this season under one of his teams since he's been here.
Last edited by Wags on Sun Feb 02, 2020 12:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
EvanJ
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Re: MBB Game 24 at William & Mary on 2/1/2020 at 4:00 P.M.

Post by EvanJ »

Wags wrote: And the defense - wow, another Mihalich-coached team allowing in the 60s?! Years ago, we never thought we'd see this. But look at the points they've allowed in the past several games: 60, 63, 59, 73, 69, 61 (4-2 in that stretch, winning all four, three of them easily, when they allowed 59-63). Finally with one of Joe's teams. Good to see! The D has been as consistent as I've seen it this season under one of his teams since he's been here.
Allowing 63 or fewer is great. A point distribution of 20+15+10+8+7+5 from the bench = 65, and as today showed, our starters are capable of more than that. It's great to have five worthy of starting rather than one or two who start because nobody else is better. 2015-2016, 2018-2019, and this season had all five starters contribute. 2016-2017 (Ty Greer to JWF) and 2017-2018 (Wormley to Buie and Joel Angus III to Trueheart) had starters change during the season. Last season had a starter change from Trueheart to Coburn after 9 games, whereas all the players who gained or lost a starting spot in 2016-2017 or 2017-2018 had at least 13 starts. In 2014-2015 we had Green, Tanksley, and Bernardi start every game; Kone and Nichols start most games; and Gustys, Nesmith, Robinson, and Walker started 3 to 7. In the last 14 complete seasons, and hopefully this season, we only had 2 starters miss a lot of time due to injury. They were Angus III in 2017-2018 and Dwan McMillan in 2010-2011. I don't remember what happened to McMillan, but he started the first 11 games and didn't play the rest of the season. He was replaced in the starting lineup by Kelleher, who was suspended for the previous season and the first 8 games. Kelleher came off the bench in his first 3 games and started every game after McMillan stopped.

https://gohofstra.com/news/2020/2/1/men ... -mary.aspx is Hofstra's recap titled "MBB: Hofstra Sends Statement With Rout Of William & Mary." Buie got to 1,137 points and passed Mike Moore and Wandy Williams for 29th. Pemberton tied Apodaca for sixth with 190 threes. He's 2 behind Richardson and 11 behind Rivera. He will probably finish fourth because he's 66 behind Bernardi in third. Bernardi made 256, JWF is second with 277, and Agudio is first (and second in CAA history) with 357.

Buie led all scorers with 22. He shot 9-15 including threes 4-8, had a great ratio of 7 assists to 1 turnover and did not commit a foul. Surprisingly, he did not have any free throw attempts (which we shot 8/12 = .667) or steals. Coburn tied Knight for the second most points with 19. With 19 seconds left in the first half, he had 3. He shot 6-12 including threes 5-8, free throws 2-2, and had only 3 rebounds. Pemberton scored 16 by shooting 6-10 including threes 1-1 and free throws 3-3. He had our second most rebounds with 5. He had a bad ratio of 1 assist to 3 turnovers, but made up for it with 2 steals and 1 block. Kante had a double-double with 13 points and 10 rebounds. He shot field goals 6-6 including making a long two at the shot clock buzzer, but shot free throws 1-3.
He got up to 4 fouls late in the game, but wasn't in foul trouble shown by his 34 minutes. He had 1 block and no assists, turnovers, or steals. Ray scored 10 and didn't shoot well, but he had our second most assists with 4, and only 1 turnover. Our last field goal was a two by Burgess to give him 3 points, and it was our only field goal from the bench. Silverio didn't do anything positive. Schutte had no shots, 1 rebound, 1 foul, and 1 block. Trueheart did a lot in 4 minutes with 2 misses, 3 rebounds, 1 block, and 1 steal. Our bench played only 15 minutes.

Knight led W&M with 19. He shot field goals 8-14, free throws 3-3, and surprisingly did not attempt a three. He also prevented a three from counting as an attempt when he fouled Pemberton in the act of shooting a three. He had 16 rebounds, 4 assists, and 1 block, but had 4 fouls and 4 turnovers. Bryce Barnes was their other double-digit scorer with 11, and had the third most rebounds on either team with 6 while being 5'11''. He had only 1 assist after entering averaging 3.7. Miguel Ayesa scored 9 off the bench by shooting 3-5, with all of the attempts being threes. He has attempted 77 threes and 10 twos. His only other positive contribution was his third block in 22 games. W&M's second, third, and fourth leading scorers entering the game played poorly. Andy Van Vliet scored 9 and had 4 assists and 2 blocks; but shot 3-13 and amazingly had only 1 rebound, and W&M was down 26 by then! Thornton Scott led W&M with 5 assists, but scored 6 and shot 2-8. Luke Loewe shot 1-4, which isn't many attempts in 32 minutes, and scored 4. His other positive contributions were 3 rebounds and 1 steal. Their only bench player other than Ayesa to score was Quinn Blair, who scored 2 by shooting 1-4. Tyler Hamilton, Rainers Hermanovskis, Thatcher Stone, and Mekhel Harvey combined to by 20 minutes, with 2 rebounds and 1 steal as their only positive contributions. Hamilton shot 0-2, and the other three didn't shoot.

In the Game Score from Analytics from Home Stats and Visitor Stats from http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=282057 Buie led all players with 19.9 Knight was second at 17.9, but was their only player in double-digits. We had four players in double-digits with Coburn at 13.9, Kante at 12.9, and Pemberton at 12.5. The sum of the Game Scores is 69.5 for us and 39.8 for them.

We shot great at 32-59 (.542) including twos 21-36 (.583) and threes 11-23 (.478), and we shot better in the second half. W&M shot threes well at 8-21 (.381), and free throws 8-9 (.889), but shot twos 14-38 (.368), which is worse than they shot threes. We normally have a big advantage in points from free throws with points from field goals about even. Today we made the same amount of free throws with 3 more attempts, and had 23 more points from 59 field goal attempts each. W&M had more assists, 35 to 32, but we got closer after they had 8 more in the first half. Each team had 14 assists, so W&M had assists on a much higher percentage of their field goals. Second chance points were 11 each, which is great considering we had 6 offensive rebounds and they had 11. They had more bench points, 11 to 3, but we expect to have fewer bench points. They had 2 more points in the paint, 26 to 24. We had 7 turnovers that gave them 10 points, and they had 13 turnovers that gave us 13 points. If you add rebounds and opponents' turnovers, we had more, 45 to 42. We had a big advantage in fast break points, 11 to 3. We had 6 steals and 4 blocks, and they had 4 steals and 6 blocks. That means the teams switched bench points and points off turnovers, and switched steals and blocks.

We could have ended today in first, third, or fourth, but not second. We will end Thursday in second because W&M is at Charleston while we don't play. Who should we root for. On one hand, since we're better head-to-head against W&M, we should root for them. On the other hand, if Charleston beats W&M, we beat Northeastern on Saturday, and we beat Charleston on Thursday February 13 on CBS Sports Network, we will end that day in first. If W&M beats Charleston, we beat Northeastern on Saturday, and we beat Charleston on Thursday February 13, we would end the day in first if W&M lost at UNCW and/or hosting Drexel. UNCW is very bad, and Drexel is very bad away. Us, W&M, and Charleston are all at home the final week. Who should we root for in Towson at Delaware on Thursday on CBS Sports Network? Towson is 0.5 games ahead of Delaware and 1 game behind us. Since we won at Towson and lost hosting Delaware, I think we should root for Towson because of tiebreakers. If Charleston beats W&M, we beat Charleston, and we finish in a three-way tie for first, all three will be 2-2 head-to-head and it will be determined by record against the next team or tied teams. Towson has a win over W&M, and Delaware hasn't beaten W&M or Charleston, so if we beat Towson and Charleston and finish in a four-way tie for first, we would be 4-2 against the group, and nobody could be 5-1 against the group. If we beat Charleston and Towson and finish in a three-way tie for first with them, we will win the three-way head-to-head. If we beat Charleston and Towson and finish in a three-way tie with Towson and W&M, we will win the three-way head-to-head. If we beat Charleston and Towson and finish tied for first, and Towson is in the top four without being in tie that goes below fourth, it would be hard for us to not win the tiebreaker.
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