Around the CAA Talk

[EvanJ]

The teams Drexel hasn't played yet are W&M, us, and Northeastern, so half of their remaining games are against those three.

[HUSID74]

Drexel crushing W&M. Chance for us to move into a tie for best record with a win tonight!

[triplec2195]

Drexel is blowing out Bill & Mary right now by 25. Go figure this one out final score 84/57?


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[The Shadow]

Drexel is now 5-2 in CAA play.

[Wags]

Sat 1/18:

As noted above, W&M's first CAA loss, 84-57, at Drexel.
Delaware edges Elon at home, 79-78.
Towson over JMU, 69-61, at home.
We know what happened in Charleston.
Roland scored 38 and NU was up 57-41 at UNCW with 9:58 left and lost, 76-74 in OT, for the Seahawks' first CAA win this season.

William & Mary 6-1
Charleston 6-2
Hofstra 5-2
Drexel 5-2

Northeastern 4-3
Towson 4-3
Delaware 3-4

JMU 1-6
Elon 1-6
UNCW 1-7

[EvanJ]

Here's this week's schedule and the predicted winner from the Sagarin:

Thursday January 23:
Delaware at Hofstra at 6:30 P.M. on CBS Sports Network (Hofstra)
Towson at Elon at 7:00 P.M. (Towson)
Drexel at Northeastern at 7:00 P.M. on NESN (Drexel)
JMU at W&M at 7:00 P.M. (W&M)

Saturday January 25 at 4:00 P.M.
Towson at W&M (W&M)
UNCW at Charleston (Charleston)
JMU at Elon (JMU in three of four parts, Elon in Recent)
Delaware at Northeastern on NESN (varies by component of the Sagarin, the overall has it even after including home court)
Drexel at Hofstra (Hofstra)

[dan10]

Here's this week's schedule and the predicted winner from the Sagarin:

Thursday January 23:
Delaware at Hofstra at 6:30 P.M. on CBS Sports Network (Hofstra)
Towson at Elon at 7:00 P.M. (Towson)
Drexel at Northeastern at 7:00 P.M. on NESN (Drexel)
JMU at W&M at 7:00 P.M. (W&M)

Saturday January 25 at 4:00 P.M.
Towson at W&M (W&M)
UNCW at Charleston (Charleston)
JMU at Elon (JMU in three of four parts, Elon in Recent)
Delaware at Northeastern on NESN (varies by component of the Sagarin, the overall has it even after including home court)
Drexel at Hofstra (Hofstra)

Seems strange Sagarin has Drexel favored over Northeastern. Vegas has NU as an 8 point favorite tonight. Usually those metrics arent so far apart.

[EvanJ]

Either I typed that wrong or it changed a lot. The overall Sagarin favors Northeastern by 4.79. KenPom favors Northeastern by 5.19 plus home court, so the line is in between the Sagarin and KenPom. Seven Overtimes predicts Northeastern to win 72-67. Northeastern is worse in the Sagarin than in the NET, KenPom, and Seven Overtimes.

[Wags]

Drexel is blowing out Bill & Mary right now by 25. Go figure this one out final score 84/57?

And Drexel loses its next game (at Northeastern tonight), 85-52.

Typical, crazy CAA.

[Wags]

Towson, all of a sudden, is the hottest team in the CAA with 5 straight wins.

They're now 5-3 in the CAA after starting 0-3.

Hofstra, which started 5-1, is now the same 5-3.

Delaware is the next hottest with just two straight wins.

[EvanJ]

Towson is at W&M today. If Towson stays hot, Delaware wins at Northeastern, and Charleston wins hosting UNCW, the standings at the midpoint will be:

W&M 7-2
Charleston 7-2
Towson 6-3
Drexel at Hofstra winner 6-3
Drexel at Hofstra loser 5-4
Northeastern 5-4
Delaware 5-4
James Madison at Elon winner 2-7
James Madison at Elon loser 1-8
UNCW 1-8

The top would be even more packed if UNCW beats Charleston, but that would be shocking. Our game is irrelevant to how the standings would be packed, and James Madison at Elon doesn't matter. In my scenario, seventh (who has to play in the First Round) would be closer to first than to eighth.

[Wags]

Great day for Hofstra today. W&M, CofC and NU were all upset at home today while HU wins.

And, just like that, after losing a very winnable home game on Thursday night, HU is in a 3-way tie for 2nd, just a game behind W&M.

Great job by Towson turning its CAA season around. After starting 0-3 in the league, they're now 6-3, and are one of those teams HU is tied with.

NU drops to a mediocre 5-4 and down to a 5th-place tie. So, it could be worse for HU.

Interesting road trip for HU next week, at Elon and at W&M. Two opposite ends of the spectrum, playing a team looking to pay HU back for a 27-point loss followed by a team HU is looking to pay back themselves for a 27-point loss.

[EvanJ]

The best team in the CAA is...

Standings: W&M
NET: Northeastern
RPI: W&M
Sagarin: Hofstra
KenPom: Northeastern
Seven Overtimes: Northeastern

Edit: They may not have looked like great wins at the time, but with Towson on a six game winning streak and UNCW having won both after we beat them, those away wins look good.

[Wags]

Tonight (1/30):

- HU by 23 at Elon
- CofC by 19 at JMU
- Towson keeps rolling and keeps staking a claim as a surprise contender... make it 7 straight after starting 0-3, beating UNCW by 11 at home
- NU loses by 1 at W&M

Seeing some clustering into three clear tiers now, with 4 contenders, 3 in the middle and 3 at the bottom:

W&M 8-2
CofC 7-3
HU 7-3
TU 7-3
-------------
DU 5-4
UD 5-4
NU 5-5
-------------
UNCW 2-8
Elon 2-8
JMU 1-9

Sets up a huge game on Saturday for HU. Not only do they owe W&M for that 27-pt loss in Hempstead, but they can either tie for first or fall two games out of first. That's a big difference with 7 to play after that one. Also, Charleston at Towson in a big one on Saturday. And, Drexel at Delaware oh Saturday to see who might fall further into mediocrity or who might keep chasing a top 4 spot.

[EvanJ]

UNCW might have had another point bite the dust. Mike Okauru leads them with 63 assists, Kai Toews, who left, is second with 56. Freshman Shykeim Phillips is third with 49, and did not play today after getting a possible concussion in practice. If he's healthy, Phillips has a good chance at making the Rookie Team. He averages 9.2 points. JMU continued to struggle shooting free throws at 19-31 (.613), but they took the lead for good 17 seconds in, led by as much as 23, and beat UNCW 83-66.

Northeastern came back from down 11 with 19:03 left to lead by 8 with 4:26, and then Elon went on a 10-0 run. Guiilen Smith had a three-point play with 1:11 left to retake the lead, and Marcus Sheffield II responded with a three-point play with 1:01 left to give them the lead for good and win 74-69, which is the biggest margin of victory by a CAA team over Northeastern in the regular season in regulation since they lost 69-64 hosting Charleston two years ago. In the 35 CAA regular season games in between, they lost by 9 at Charleston in overtime, and they lost to Charleston by 7 in the 2018 CAA Final. Of the seven CAA teams other than Northeastern, Elon, and Charleston, none have beaten Northeastern by more than 3 since Towson won 82-54 in the 2017 CAA Quarterfinal when Northeastern finished 15-16.

Delaware beat Drexel 80-72, with Nate Darling scoring 27 and Kevin Anderson and Dylan Painter with 20. Painter made his first career three. Their other two starters, Ryan Allen and Justyn Mutts, didn't do much. Mutts scored 30 at Hofstra and 10 in his next two games combined.

Towson led by 12 before Charleston came back to win 79-70. The three-way head-to-head tiebreaker keeps W&M in first with Charleston in second and us in third.

[Wags]

UNCW might have had another point bite the dust. Mike Okauru leads them with 63 assists, Kai Toews, who left, is second with 56. Freshman Shykeim Phillips is third with 49, and did not play today after getting a possible concussion in practice. If he's healthy, Phillips has a good chance at making the Rookie Team. He averages 9.2 points. JMU continued to struggle shooting free throws at 19-31 (.613), but they took the lead for good 17 seconds in, led by as much as 23, and beat UNCW 83-66.

Northeastern came back from down 11 with 19:03 left to lead by 8 with 4:26, and then Elon went on a 10-0 run. Guiilen Smith had a three-point play with 1:11 left to retake the lead, and Marcus Sheffield II responded with a three-point play with 1:01 left to give them the lead for good and win 74-69, which is the biggest margin of victory by a CAA team over Northeastern in the regular season in regulation since they lost 69-64 hosting Charleston two years ago. In the 35 CAA regular season games in between, they lost by 9 at Charleston in overtime, and they lost to Charleston by 7 in the 2018 CAA Final. Of the seven CAA teams other than Northeastern, Elon, and Charleston, none have beaten Northeastern by more than 3 since Towson won 82-54 in the 2017 CAA Quarterfinal when Northeastern finished 15-16.

Delaware beat Drexel 80-72, with Nate Darling scoring 27 and Kevin Anderson and Dylan Painter with 20. Painter made his first career three. Their other two starters, Ryan Allen and Justyn Mutts, didn't do much. Mutts scored 30 at Hofstra and 10 in his next two games combined.

Towson led by 12 before Charleston came back to win 79-70. The three-way head-to-head tiebreaker keeps W&M in first with Charleston in second and us in third.

Towson's 7-game CAA streak ends.
W&M's hot start looking a bit fluky of late.
HU had as good a road trip as it could've hoped for.
NU falls below .500 with a bad loss.
UD (W4) and DU (L3) going in opposite directions in the middle of the pack. NU falls below both of them, down to 7th place.
3-way tie for 1st, with HU, CofC and W&M all 8-3, with 7 to play should keep HU in it the rest of the way barring trip-ups at home (5 of the 7 will be there).

[EvanJ]

Riller passed Agudio for sixth in CAA career points. Riller is 79 behind JWF, so if he has a great next three games he could pass JWF at us on CBS Sports Network. Including our players and opponents, I wonder if two players with as many career points as JWF have ever played at Hofstra under a year apart. Agudio and Jenkins were teammates for a year, but that doesn't count because JWF and Riller scored more than Agudio.

[triplec2195]

Riller passed Agudio for sixth in CAA career points. Riller is 79 behind JWF, so if he has a great next three games he could pass JWF at us on CBS Sports Network. Including our players and opponents, I wonder if two players with as many career points as JWF have ever played at Hofstra under a year apart. Agudio and Jenkins were teammates for a year, but that doesn't count because JWF and Riller scored more than Agudio.

Nothing personal Evan but while u r discussing statistics please list the points scored and the minutes played by Riller in his freshman year compared to Justin's freshman year so we all have a clear perspective of the comparison of their college basketball careers. Riller redshirted in his true freshman year due to an ACL injury. The following year he did the following; REDSHIRT FRESHMAN (2016-17)

Honored on the 2017 CAA All-Rookie Team … Played in 35 games of the season with 29 starts … Ranked third among CAA freshmen in scoring averaging 13.1 points per game … Was selected four times during the season as CAA Rookie of the Week … Made the third-most steals (33) on the team … Scored in double figures in 21 contests including seven 20-point outings and one 30-point outing … Recorded a career-high 30 points and six steals at Drexel (1/28/17) … Made career-best two blocked shots vs. Elon (2/4/17) … Also shot 79 percent from the free throw line (103-of-129) making 10-of-12 vs. Navy (12/1/16) … Closed out the season registering double figures in 14 of the last 19 games of the season including 15 points at Colorado State in the NIT First Round (3/14/17).

Justin played in 27 games as a freshman averaging 4.1 minutes a game. Maybe I'm a little sensitive to what appears to be a comparison of two really good players but IMO Riller is not Justin on any given day. He's a very good player no question but give Justin the minutes in his freshman year or red-shirt him and then look at what his numbers would have looked like. Then we would have a real comparison.

[EvanJ]

I know that, but fans looking at the CAA Record Book (most of whom aren't fans of Hofstra) may not know that, especially if JWF is still in the CAA Top 10 when more CAA fans (including students who are younger than the average fan) never saw him play. It's like the controversy when Roger Maris broke Babe Ruth's season home run record with 162 games when Ruth had 154. As times go by, fans look at numbers and are less likely to know when they can be unfair comparisons.

Let's assume that everyone on this board knows about JWF's lack of opportunity as a freshman whether we say it or not.

[triplec2195]

I know that, but fans looking at the CAA Record Book (most of whom aren't fans of Hofstra) may not know that, especially if JWF is still in the CAA Top 10 when more CAA fans (including students who are younger than the average fan) never saw him play. It's like the controversy when Roger Maris broke Babe Ruth's season home run record with 162 games when Ruth had 154. As times go by, fans look at numbers and are less likely to know when they can be unfair comparisons.

Let's assume that everyone on this board knows about JWF's lack of opportunity as a freshman whether we say it or not.

Sad but true unfortunately!!