Around the CAA Talk

[Wags]

W&M at Elon is on CBS Sports Network tonight.

Also, Charleston at Delaware is a very intriguing early-season matchup tonight. Much debate so far this year about whether Delaware is for real or not. This is a good early test for the Blue Hens against a team that figures to be in the mix for CAA regular season & CAA tourney titles this season.

[Polito]

I think UD has a nice staff from the Brey tree on the right trajectory, and they have been putting decent talent on the floor with an HU-like mixture of newbies and transfers. I don't see them as a juggernaut, but they seem to have a good thing going for them, and a fit for their program. Should be interesting this season, some big conf battles ahead among the top half teams.

[EvanJ]

Charleston won 75-63 at Delaware. Drexel won 71-66 hosting UNCW. William & Mary won 74-73 at Elon. Northeastern won 88-72 at James Madison. Northeastern won twice by 16 against opponents we beat by 8 and 6. Charleston, Northeastern, and us look like top three.

[Wags]

Charleston won 75-63 at Delaware. Drexel won 71-66 hosting UNCW. William & Mary won 74-73 at Elon. Northeastern won 88-72 at James Madison. Northeastern won twice by 16 against opponents we beat by 8 and 6. Charleston, Northeastern, and us look like top three.

Bad showing for Delaware in its quest to be taken seriously as a legit CAA contender. Closer than the final score indicated (it was 56-55, CofC, with about 6 min left, but they Hens were up 6 at halfitme and outscored 41-23 in the second half at home.

Watched the W&M and Elon game. Neither team was that impressive. Was nice of CBS Sports Network to allow Hofstra viewers in NY to scout HU's next two opponents in a single game.

[HU87]

Delaware will end up being a top 4 team this year... they just have too much talent.

It'll be some combination of us, NE, Charleston and UD in the top 4, with W&M's "Twin Towers" stealing a few games from all of us.

No very bad teams/automatic wins this year it seems...

[Wags]

Delaware will end up being a top 4 team this year... they just have too much talent.

It'll be some combination of us, NE, Charleston and UD in the top 4, with W&M's "Twin Towers" stealing a few games from all of us.

No very bad teams/automatic wins this year it seems...

Agree on Delaware, but if they wanted to show last night that they belonged with Northeastern, Charleston and Hofstra, they instead showed they (at least for now) are merely on that next tier down, just below those three. Obviously, we're only getting started in CAA play and things can change, but I expect it to play out that way all season, that Delaware will be the fourth-best team and not quite on par with the top three.

[HUSID74]

Agree with you Wags and UNCW and Elon are clearly in the last quadrant.

[EvanJ]

Agree with you Wags and UNCW and Elon are clearly in the last quadrant.

After Saturday, a UNCW fan said he wouldn't be surprised if they didn't win for the rest of the season, and I said he shouldn't say that until if and we they lose both games to Elon. Elon doesn't have fans on CSNBBS. It's safe to say that the hardest pair of games is a team's trip to us and Northeastern.

[Polito]

Been calling UNCW since the staff change. I see another change at the end of this season, next at the latest. Their admin will not allow losing and no dancing for long. Best take advantage while it lasts.

Agree with UD in top 4, not just good players they have good coaching too HUSID.

CofC and NU are going to be tough again, with HU prob the top 3.

Not sure there aren't bad teams in this league - have said it many times, parity doesn't = good. This is a pretty top-heavy / even league outside of the top 3-4.

[EvanJ]

If Delaware wins 4 of their next 5 and loses at us and Northeastern, they will be 5-4 at the midpoint. Their next five are at Drexel, at JMU, at Towson, hosting W&M, and hosting Elon. After their northern trip, they could be favored in their next four games, which are the teams I listed except for W&M. Then have have a hard next four at W&M, hosting Northeastern and us, and at Charleston, and they end at UNCW. W&M at Delaware on January 16 could be important in determining the top team outside the top three. W&M has a very hard next five at us and Northeastern, hosting UNCW and Charleston, and at Delaware.

Ken Pomeroy posted regular season title chances for all teams with at least a 10 percent chance. Percents can add up to over 100 percent because he gives credit to all teams tied for first. Of the 32 conferences, the CAA's favorite had the fifth lowest probability. The probabilities for the best team in each conference ranged from 95 percent to Liberty in the Atlantic South to 34 percent for Kent State in the Mid-American, which has four teams at least 23 percent. He has Northeastern at 43 percent, us at 36 percent, Charleston at 27 percent, and Delaware at 13 percent. That's 119 percent without the small chances for other teams, so that's a significant chance of a tie for first. This came from his formula, not his judgement. Of the 33 teams picked first in their conference's preseason poll, we rank 19th in probability. The American Athletic preseason poll had a tie for first, and with Memphis at 35 percent and Houston at 34 percent, Hofstra has a higher probability than both of them. The second most likely team to win its conference is Vermont at 89 percent, with Stony Brook at 18 percent. The Atlantic Sun is the only conference whose second most likely team is under 10 percent. 19 or 20 preseason favorites are most likely (depending on if you count the aforementioned co-favorites Memphis and Houston once or twice), 9 preseason favorites including us are not favorites but are at least 10 percent, and 4 preseason favorites are under 10 percent. The Southland has Stephen F. Austin, who is the only team to beat Duke, at 55 percent, Sam Houston State at 52 percent, and preseason favorite New Orleans winless against Division I.

Edit: Even with Kai Toews gone, the CAA career assists record isn't safe. Camren Wynter, who is from Hempstead, will finish with 716 assists if he finishes with his current average per game and plays 33 games per season. The CAA record is 714 by Navy's Doug Wojcik, who was teammates with CAA career points record holder David Robinson. If Wynter stays, we won't find out if he breaks the record for over two years, but it's still something to think about. To compare records, Claxton has our record with 660, and Drexel's record is 724.

[Hof_Judge99]

NE freshman Tyson Walker who is from Westbury and went to Christ the King HS scored 32 tonight. Between him and Cam Wynter of Drexel do we even bother to recruit in Long Island anymore? Tired of seeing these LI kids become stars for other teams.

[Flying Dutchmen]

NE freshman Tyson Walker who is from Westbury and went to Christ the King HS scored 32 tonight. Between him and Cam Wynter of Drexel do we even bother to recruit in Long Island anymore? Tired of seeing these LI kids become stars for other teams.

To be fair, those guys got recruited out of prep schools in New Hampshire and Florida respectively. But it hurts that Walker went to CTK and we seemingly weren't on the radar.

[HUSID74]

We see it in every sport. Most kids want to go away to school.

[EvanJ]

We see it in every sport. Most kids want to go away to school.

UNCW is a bad team and a state school, so it may not be a good comparison to us, but their roster is down to eleven players, of whom eight are from North Carolina, one is from Georgia, one is from Kansas, and Martin Linssen is from Germany and transferred after being a freshman at Valparaiso in Indiana. Looking at the other three private schools, half of Drexel's twelve players are within three hours without traffic, and another one is from a suburb of Pittsburgh. Of the five from farther away, two are European. Northeastern has thirteen players, including one from Boston and one from Providence. Whether you count Tyson Walker as from Westbury or from New Hampshire, he's the third closest. Jordan Roland is from Syracuse, which has produced two of the CAA's top four scorers along with Knight. That's four. They have four other Americans, with one from Florida, one from Arizona, and two from California, and five foreigners. Of Elon's thirteen players, only two are from North Carolina. One is from under four hours away in southwestern Virginia, and two are from under five and a half hours away in Georgia. They have one player from Boston, Orlando, Pasadena (near Los Angeles), and Minneapolis, two from Ohio, and two Europeans.

[Hof_Judge99]

We see it in every sport. Most kids want to go away to school.

I guess the sad part about that is the Speedy, Jenkins, Agudio, Richardson and JWF were all local guys. Heck it seems like all recent great players in Hofstra history were from the NYC area. I guess that would make for a good trivia question, who are the best Hof MBB players who weren’t from NY? I’m sure there were a bunch but I don’t go back pre 2000s.

[Mikey77]

judge99 - That's easy Richie Laurel from Philly.

[stuball888]

Rick Apodaca from New Jersey

[Pride97]

Juan'ya Green was Philly

[Wags]

Loren Stokes - Buffalo (yes, NY but that ain't local).

[Wags]

Juan'ya Green was Philly

Ameen Tanksley, too.