Around the CAA Talk

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Wags
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Re: Around the CAA Talk

Post by Wags »

Towson at Delaware at 7 pm on CBS Sports Network tomorrow night (2/6).
triplec2195
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Re: Around the CAA Talk

Post by triplec2195 »

Wags wrote:Towson at Delaware at 7 pm on CBS Sports Network tomorrow night (2/6).
I plan on watching W&M play COC on Flo sports. This should be a good one. I don't want to look too far ahead because we need to beat NE on Saturday but next Thursday should be a great game with big implications in this conference.
EvanJ
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Re: Around the CAA Talk

Post by EvanJ »

Points as of about a minute ago:

Delaware's Nate Darling: 12
Delaware's Ryan Allen: 11
William & Mary: 10
JMU: 9
UNCW: 8

Two teammates separately have more points than three of the other seven CAA teams playing now.

Edit: Brevin Galloway has 10 points. Riller's 4 is tied for tenth among CAA players playing now.

Edit: Every game has a margin of 8, 10, or 12.

Edit: With 7:05 left, Elon's second leading scorer has 6, and their eighth leading scorer has 4. That includes ties with 6, 5, and 4. Marcus Sheffield II made 2 free throws with 7:27 left to become the first player on either team to double-digits. Marten Linssen leads UNCW with 9. Elon leads 47-37 with 6:03 left. UNCW has 4 assists and 18 turnovers.
EvanJ
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Re: Around the CAA Talk

Post by EvanJ »

I just tweeted:

"Free throws tonight: W&M 6-8, Charleston 5-7

The CAA has statistics going back to 2005-2006, which is 481 games for Hofstra, and none of those games had Hofstra and their opponent attempt 8 or fewer free throws."

I'm at twitter.com/EvanJ3535

Elon won 62-56 at UNCW. KenPom picked UNCW to win 69-66. Using my formula to evaluate score predictions that gives 100 for a perfect score and deducts for being off on the margin and the combined points, that prediction gets a 56. Seven Overtimes picked Elon to win 71-67. That prediction gets a 74.

Drexel won 78-67 hosting JMU. KenPom picked Drexel to win 80-73. That prediction gets an 80. Seven Overtimes thinks Drexel is better, knew Drexel was at home, gave Drexel a 66.8 percent chance to win, but picked JMU to win 73-72. That prediction gets a 64. The most likely team to win could be different than the team that wins the predicted score if the prediction is for a close game, but giving the team predicted to lose over a two-thirds chance of winning seems like a mistake, and I've corrected multiple mistakes by that site.

Delaware won 84-78 hosting Towson. KenPom picked Delaware to win 71-69. That prediction gets a 66. Seven Overtimes picked Delaware to win 72-69. That prediction get a 70.

Charleston won 68-50 hosting William & Mary. KenPom picked Charleston to win 74-67. That prediction gets a 44. Seven Overtimes picked Charleston to win 73-68. That prediction gets a 38.

The average prediction scores are 61.5 for both sites.

Delaware's Nate Darling (34), William & Mary's Nathan Knight (28), JMU's Deshon Parker (23), Towson's Allen Betrand (23), and Charleston's Brevin Galloway (23) were the five players to score at least 20, and their teams went 2-3. Grant Riller scored 10 to barely extend his double-digit streak to 52 games. He's scored 10 points in each game against William & Mary and at least 16 points in every other CAA games. Knight outscored Riller by 18, but Riller's teammates outscored Knight's teammates 58-22. Knight scored 56 percent of their points. Their players other than Knight shot field goals 9-37 (.243), threes 3-20 (.150), and free throws 1-2 (.500). Charleston's players other than Riller made exactly half of their field goals.

Knight became the ninth player from 2010-2011 to the present to have at least 28 points, at least 18 rebounds, and at least 10 offensive rebounds. Teams are 6-3 when a player does that. Those nine games include one win over a non-Division I team, and none before today were for or against a CAA team.
Wags
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Re: Around the CAA Talk

Post by Wags »

EvanJ wrote:I just tweeted:

"Free throws tonight: W&M 6-8, Charleston 5-7

The CAA has statistics going back to 2005-2006, which is 481 games for Hofstra, and none of those games had Hofstra and their opponent attempt 8 or fewer free throws."

I'm at twitter.com/EvanJ3535

Elon won 62-56 at UNCW. KenPom picked UNCW to win 69-66. Using my formula to evaluate score predictions that gives 100 for a perfect score and deducts for being off on the margin and the combined points, that prediction gets a 56. Seven Overtimes picked Elon to win 71-67. That prediction gets a 74.

Drexel won 78-67 hosting JMU. KenPom picked Drexel to win 80-73. That prediction gets an 80. Seven Overtimes thinks Drexel is better, knew Drexel was at home, gave Drexel a 66.8 percent chance to win, but picked JMU to win 73-72. That prediction gets a 64. The most likely team to win could be different than the team that wins the predicted score if the prediction is for a close game, but giving the team predicted to lose over a two-thirds chance of winning seems like a mistake, and I've corrected multiple mistakes by that site.

Delaware won 84-78 hosting Towson. KenPom picked Delaware to win 71-69. That prediction gets a 66. Seven Overtimes picked Delaware to win 72-69. That prediction get a 70.

Charleston won 68-50 hosting William & Mary. KenPom picked Charleston to win 74-67. That prediction gets a 44. Seven Overtimes picked Charleston to win 73-68. That prediction gets a 38.

The average prediction scores are 61.5 for both sites.

Delaware's Nate Darling (34), William & Mary's Nathan Knight (28), JMU's Deshon Parker (23), Towson's Allen Betrand (23), and Charleston's Brevin Galloway (23) were the five players to score at least 20, and their teams went 2-3. Grant Riller scored 10 to barely extend his double-digit streak to 52 games. He's scored 10 points in each game against William & Mary and at least 16 points in every other CAA games. Knight outscored Riller by 18, but Riller's teammates outscored Knight's teammates 58-22. Knight scored 56 percent of their points. Their players other than Knight shot field goals 9-37 (.243), threes 3-20 (.150), and free throws 1-2 (.500). Charleston's players other than Riller made exactly half of their field goals.

Knight became the ninth player from 2010-2011 to the present to have at least 28 points, at least 18 rebounds, and at least 10 offensive rebounds. Teams are 6-3 when a player does that. Those nine games include one win over a non-Division I team, and none before today were for or against a CAA team.
W&M continues to come back down to Earth. I figured they were playing over their heads before and that in the end, it'll still come down to HU and CofC, with NU still a threat (though, they've lost a lot of close ones).

Streaky season in the CAA for Towson. Lost their first 3, won their next 7, and have now lost their last 2.
Meanwhile, Delaware has now won 5 straight after starting 2-4 in the CAA.
Elon has won two straight to climb away from the CAA cellar a bit.
The coaching change boost has worn off for UNCW, which has now lost 3 straight.

Hofstra (8-3) now in sole possession of 2nd. They fall a 1/2-game behind CofC (9-3) but a 1/2-game ahead of W&M (8-4), which has lost 3 of 4 and 4 of 6.

Delaware (7-4) is in 4th, Towson (7-5) drops behind them, into 5th.

Drexel (6-5) in 6th and as of now, Northeastern (5-6) is surprisingly in the CAAT first round, in 7th.

Elon (4-8) in 8th, with JMU (2-10) and UNCW (2-10) at the bottom.

Saturday is big for HU - can further hurt NU and keep them down, but also CofC (hosting Elon) and W&M (at UNCW) have very winnable games on Sat, so HU needs to keep pace with them.
Wags
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Re: Around the CAA Talk

Post by Wags »

* Northeastern blows a 16-point lead in a loss for the 3rd time in 6 games. They started 4-2 in the CAA and are now 5-7, losing their past 4 and 5 of 6.
* Charleston upset at home by Elon in shocker. Elon has won 3 straight after starting 2-8 in the CAA.
* Delaware trailed JMU at home by 7 with a little over 5 left, but eeked out their 6th straight win.
* Towson, down 7 at halftime at Drexel, outscored the Dragons by 14 in the 2nd half.
* W&M upset at UNCW. The Tribe is 2-5 after starting 6-0 in the league.

HU jumps up to first place at the 2/3 mark of its CAA schedule:

Hofstra 9-3
Charleston 9-4
Delaware 8-4
William & Mary 8-5
Towson 8-5
Drexel 6-6
------------------------
Northeastern 5-7
Elon 5-8
UNCW 3-10
JMU 2-11
EvanJ
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Re: Around the CAA Talk

Post by EvanJ »

Elon came back from down 11 hosting Delaware to lead, but Nate Darling made the game-winning three with 21 seconds left to go up 77-75. Two turnovers by Elon and Delaware's offensive rebound of a missed free throw kept getting them free throws, and they won 81-75. Nate Darling scored 24 and made 5 threes, while Ryan Allen, Kevin Anderson, and Dylan Painter scored 13. Marcus Sheffield II had 24 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists. He shared the game lead with Darling in points and Painter and rebounds, and led all players in assists. It's rare for nobody on either team to get more than 6 rebounds. Hunter McIntosh had 14 points and 5 assists.

I was rooting for Drexel to come back at W&M. Drexel trailed by as much as 13 and never led, but I had hope when Coletrane Washington had a four-point play with 47 seconds left to go down 71-70. Nathan Knight responded by throwing the ball up from near the basket, getting a three-point play, blocking a shot, getting fouled, and making 1 free throw to go up 75-70. Drexel dunked with 3 seconds left, and Knight made 2 free throws with 0.4 seconds left to win 77-72. Knight scored 28 but didn't get a double-double because he had 7 rebounds. Andy Van Vliet had 17 points and 13 rebounds. Bryce Barnes shot 8-11 and scored 18. Camren Wynter had 24 points, 9 rebounds, and 8 assists for Drexel, who got 14 from Zach Walton and 13 from Washington, who shot 4-7 off the bench with all of his attempts being threes. James Butler made his only three, which was his third three of the season, but made only 1 of 6 twos. He averages a double-double, but had 7 points and 7 rebounds. None of the three CAA players who average double-doubles had one tonight as Knight and Butler didn't have enough rebounds, and Dwight Wilson didn't get a chance because JMU was off.

Northeastern never trailed, and their lead peaked at 18 up 44-26 with 16:06 left. UNCW got within 10, but Northeastern by 17 at 69-52 with 2:37 left. UNCW went on a 9-0 run, Northeastern made two free throws, and Jaylen Sims scored with 3 seconds left to have his team lose 71-63. Northeastern led 34-24 at halftime and led by double-digits for almost the rest of the game until it was 69-61 and 71-63. Jordan Roland led all scorers with 27. Bolden Brace 11 points, 14 rebounds, and 6 assists, but shot 4-11. His 14 rebounds led CAA players tonight. Point guard Tyson Walker struggled with 4 points, 1 rebound, 2 assists, and 4 fouls. UNCW started Rookie of the Week Imajae Dodd over Marten Linssen. Dodd missed his only shot and had 2 rebounds in 16 minutes. Linssen shot field goals 7-9 and free throws 6-7 to lead UNCW with 20 points from the bench. Dodd and Linssen are forwards who don't shoot threes. UNCW's leading scorer, Jaylen Sims, did not start, but scored 17. He led in UNCW in minutes with 34, rebounds with 8, and tied for his team lead in assists with 3. Brian Tolefree scored 13. Ty Gadsden shot 2-8, scored 6, and had 4 fouls and 8 turnovers! Mike Okauru shot 0-7 to not score.

My CAA team of the night has Pemberton, Nathan Knight, Jordan Roland, Marcus Sheffield II, and Marten Linssen. Linssen had 20 points and 6 rebounds in a loss, but I'm putting him on my team of the night because of his 7-9 field goals and 6-7 free throws shooting. Grant Riller, Camren Wynter, Andy Van Vliet, Bryce Barnes, Nate Darling, Bolden Brace, and Kante also had big nights. That's an average of 1.5 players per team.

Edit: The CAA's Twitter poll has two of four players who I didn't put on my team of the night. Pemberton, Roland, Darling, and Van Vliet are the choices. I voted for Pemberton, Roland and Darling shot worse and didn't have as many contributions other than points. Van Vliet's 13 rebounds are not enough to make up for Pemberton's 11 more points, much better shooting, and other contributions including 4 steals when Van Vliet didn't have any. So far the poll is:

Pemberton: 40.7 percent
Darling: 32.2 percent
Roland: 15.3 percent
Van Vliet: 11.9 percent
Wags
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Re: Around the CAA Talk

Post by Wags »

Northeastern is now tied for 6th with Drexel (both 6-7), with Elon (5-9) in 8th.

Everyone, including Hofstra, should be rooting for Northeastern to finish 7th instead of 6th.

They're still dangerous enough, that if they get to 6, they could reach the finals by knocking off the 3 and the 2.

But if they have to play that extra game as a 7, especially if it ends up being against a scrappy UNCW team (as a 10, though right now, UNCW is 9th, a 1/2 game ahead of JMU), that could wear Northeastern down a little too much, to then have to win three (instead of two) just to get to the finals.

Saturday will be interesting, to see if Northeastern starts to surge and climb now (as I expect they will) and to see how Charleston will respond off of last night's loss. Tough game for the Cougars - it's a noon start in Boston.
EvanJ
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Re: Around the CAA Talk

Post by EvanJ »

Grant Riller's double-digit streak ended at 54 games as he scored 9 in a 65-51 loss at Northeastern

In W&M's 81-77 win hosting Delaware, W&M's Bryce Barnes got a rebound with 29 seconds left, and I didn't see what happened, but he was helped off the court.
He entered averaging 7.8 points and 3.4 assists, and increased those today with 12 points and 7 assists. He's a graduate transfer, so an injury that ends his season would end his career.

Elon won 75-70 hosting Drexel. Elon improved to 3-10 when trailing at halftime. On consecutive Saturdays, Drexel had a 7 point lead at halftime and lost by hosting Towson, and had a 6 point lead and lost by 5 today. Elon started Seth Fuller, who had 9 points in 97 minutes this season before today, because it was Senior Day. Elon ends with three games away including at travel partner W&M. UNCW ends with 3 at home.

Towson at JMU will tie our game at Northeastern that was the second game of a CAA doubleheader on CBS Sports Network for the latest start time for a CAA game at 8:00 P.M. It's because the Convocation Center is used for an Admitted Students Open House this afternoon. With the Atlantic Union Bank Center opening next season, I hope they can have the open house in the Convocation Center and not make a game start later.
Hof_Judge99
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Re: Around the CAA Talk

Post by Hof_Judge99 »

Nate Darling who has been unconscious of late has 14 points 5 minutes into the game against Northeastern tonight. God is that guy gonna be a handful in March.
EvanJ
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Re: Around the CAA Talk

Post by EvanJ »

Hof_Judge99 wrote: Nate Darling who has been unconscious of late has 14 points 5 minutes into the game against Northeastern tonight. God is that guy gonna be a handful in March.
He reached 14 with 15:21 left in the first half, made a three with 11:47 left in the first half to reach 17, and didn't score after that. He still led all scorers with 1 more than Roland's 16. What's harder, winning the lottery or being the leading scorer including both teams without scoring in the last 31:46? I'm going to tweet at twitter.com/EvanJ3535 and thank you because otherwise I wouldn't have known when Darling scored.
EvanJ
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Re: Around the CAA Talk

Post by EvanJ »

Charleston is struggling. They lost 68-55 at UNCW, which more than doubles UNCW's previous largest margin of victory over a Division I team this season, which was 70-64 hosting W&M. Charleston is on a four game losing streak during which time they averaged 58.5 points, and after losing 72-65 hosting Elon, their last three losses were by 13 or 14. With Charleston's loss, W&M clinched at least the 2 seed. The four teams who will play in the First Round are known, and the two teams who start against teams who played in the First Round are known. In 2016 I went to our Quarterfinal win over Drexel and Semifinal win over W&M. We could play Drexel in the Quarterfinals, but we can't play W&M before the Final.
EvanJ
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Re: Around the CAA Talk

Post by EvanJ »

The CAA's Bill Potter tweeted and I was wrong. Elon can pass Northeastern with a win and two Northeastern losses. They would have a split, be 0-2 against us, and Elon would be 1-1 vs. W&M to Northeastern's 0-2. When I posted before I think I was thinking Northeastern at W&M split. Elon passing Northeastern is extremely unlikely, but possible. No seeds have been clinched, and it's possible for no seeds to be clinched until Saturday. We would have to lose to Towson. Towson would have the tiebreaker over Delaware because they split, would both split with us, and Towson is 1-1 vs. W&M, who swept Delaware. W&M has the tiebreaker over Towson because of their record against Delaware, and even if Charleston and/or Northeastern ties Delaware, W&M would have the tiebreaker over Towson. W&M has clinched the 1 or 2. Therefore in order for Towson to win without clinching the 3, Delaware must win at Charleston. In that case, Delaware and Towson would have a better record than Charleston, so Charleston would have to be passed by Northeastern. Northeastern swept Charleston, so if Charleston loses they could be passed by Northeastern even if Northeastern loses hosting JMU. Northeastern must lose hosting JMU to avoid JMU clinching the 10, which also requires UNCW to lose hosting Drexel. That would make Elon and Drexel 7-10, so no seeds will be clinched if all four away teams win on Thursday.
EvanJ
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Re: Around the CAA Talk

Post by EvanJ »

Riller moved up to third in CAA career points yesterday, and he's 90 behind Jenkins. To keep Jenkins second to David Robinson, we don't want Charleston to reach the Final, and we don't want Charleston in a postseason tournament
Wags
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Re: Around the CAA Talk

Post by Wags »

If anyone wants to get a look at HU's first CAA opponent this season, W&M is on CBS Sports Network playing at GW, at 7 pm tonight (Mon 12/14).
Wags
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Re: Around the CAA Talk

Post by Wags »

Wags wrote:If anyone wants to get a look at HU's first CAA opponent this season, W&M is on CBS Sports Network playing at GW, at 7 pm tonight (Mon 12/14).
Almost as wild as tonight's Ravens' 47-42 MNF win in Cleveland. W&M was down 19 toward the end of the first half, after a 12-0 GW run, but came back to win, 85-84, in OT.
triplec2195
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Re: Around the CAA Talk

Post by triplec2195 »

Looked at the box score Luke Loewe had 24 points and they hit 15 of 17 FT's. GW however is 1-5 so what does this really say for W&M.
stuball888
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Re: Around the CAA Talk

Post by stuball888 »

Luke Lowee is a 6ft 5 guard He could be a matchup nightmare for us Need to take away his drives overplay him to the right with an extra defender for help He doesnt give the ball up once he starts his drive
Wags
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Re: Around the CAA Talk

Post by Wags »

triplec2195 wrote:Looked at the box score Luke Loewe had 24 points and they hit 15 of 17 FT's. GW however is 1-5 so what does this really say for W&M.
It might say a lot more than what GW's record suggests.

Another one of those five GW losses was a close one at Delaware (tied at halftime, lost by 3).

Delaware was picked 2nd in the CAA, W&M 10th.
Wags
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Re: Around the CAA Talk

Post by Wags »

Men's CAA basketball tourney to be played on the campus of JMU this year:

https://twitter.com/billpotter_/status/ ... 0088347648
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