Around the CAA Talk

[EvanJ]

In an 81-72 win at Towson, JMU's Matt Lewis became the first player from 2010-2011 to the present to make at least 9 three-pointers, have at least 8 assists, and have at least 1 block. He made 3 free throws and no two-pointers to score 30. He shot threes 9-12. He became the fifteenth CAA player to make at least 9 threes, and the record is 10.

[The Shadow]

Surprisingly, College of Charleston coach Earl Grant to Boston College.

[EvanJ]

Boston College was 4-16 without any Quadrant 1 or 2 wins, their SOS of 122th is very bad by ACC standards, and they were 186th of 347 in the NET. The middle spot is 174th, so they were a little worse than average. Their RPI was a horrible 292nd, 135th in the Sagarin, and 143rd in KenPom, so the RPI (which is the only one that doesn't include scores) is the outlier. They're in the top 40 percent of the Sagarin with a .200 winning percentage. Their wins were three at home and one over Rhode Island in Bubbleville at Mohegan Sun. The teams in the top conferences make so much money that even if they're one of the worst in their conference they can still get coaches from mid-majors.

[maske]

Dear friends,
After a long time, I decided to write you a few words about Vukasin and Hofstra
I see that Speedy has put together a good team and I believe that the results will be better than last season.
I will follow yours as much as my time and obligations allow and the fan of course for Hofstra.
As for Vukasin, he did great, he gained the full trust of coaches and players and he can't wait for the season to start. He is happy to play in positions 1 and 2 and says that everyone is satisfied. Thank God everything will be fine.
So much for now, I wish you a lot of success and a lot of joy.
Greetings from Serbia from Zoran

[HUSID74]

Wishing the best for your son...good to hear he is happy with his new situation.

[cactus]

Dear friends,
After a long time, I decided to write you a few words about Vukasin and Hofstra
I see that Speedy has put together a good team and I believe that the results will be better than last season.
I will follow yours as much as my time and obligations allow and the fan of course for Hofstra.
As for Vukasin, he did great, he gained the full trust of coaches and players and he can't wait for the season to start. He is happy to play in positions 1 and 2 and says that everyone is satisfied. Thank God everything will be fine.
So much for now, I wish you a lot of success and a lot of joy.
Greetings from Serbia from Zoran

Best wishes to Vukasin this season on the court.

[Wags]

Delaware led Iona 39-32 at the half before losing 83-72 at UBS Arena last night.

I know it was a Delaware road game, but seems like a shame that the first CAA team to play in the new arena wasn't Hofstra, especially when it's on the same road, just a few miles up! Would've been better if they switched them, with the Hofstra-Iona game earlier this year at UBS and last night's game played on Iona's campus. I hope Hofstra can get a game at UBS next season.

[Wags]

I had already been thinking that Towson was the best team in the CAA. This confirms that for me right now though (of course, that can change in the coming weeks):

Towson's current KenPom rating of 92 is the best in program history and the best in the CAA since UNCW and Charleston finished the 2016-17 season in the top 90.

[Wags]

It might be time to start taking UNCW seriously. They were expected to be one of the CAA's worst this year, but they remain the last unbeaten team in league play.
A 3-pointer at the buzzer gave UNCW a one-point win at JMU. The Seahawks are 4-0 in the conference.

Unlike UNCW, W&M has fallen back down to Earth. Now 2-3 in the league after starting 2-0. Delaware recovered from its loss at Hofstra with an 84-74 win over the Tribe.

Towson continues to look like the team to beat in the league for now. Tigers (5-1 in the CAA) beat Charleston by seven at home tonight for their fifth straight win.

Drexel rebounded from its loss at Hofstra with a 77-49 home thrashing of Elon, which in typical, completely inconsistent CAA fashion, followed the biggest win in CAA play this year (90-67 over JMU on Monday) with the worst loss of any team in CAA play this year for a 51-point swing over two games.

[EvanJ]

Jaylen Sims didn't shoot well, but his three at the buzzer while double-teamed was SportsCenter,s Number 1 play. UNCW made the right decision not calling timeout at the start of the possession because Shykeim Phillips fell and was able to grab the ball and call their last timeout. JMU led from 18:19 left until the buzzer, and went up 13 with 9:55 left. JMU was up 3 with the ball in the last minute, and here's how they blew it. They let the ball roll out of bounds. UNCW scored 2. JMU made a free throw to go up 2 and missed the second. JMU Coach Mark Byington scored over 1,000 points for UNCW. UNCW (picked ninth) is at Towson (picked eighth) tomorrow at 2:00 P.M. with the winner staying in or moving up to first. JMU got a little revenge this afternoon as they scored with 18 seconds left to win by 1 at UNCW in Women's Basketball.

26 of 90 CAA games have been played. Here is tomorrow's schedule:

Hofstra at Northeastern at 12:00 P.M.
Elon at Delaware at 1:00 P.M. on NBC Sports Philadelphia
UNCW at Towson at 2:00 P.M.
W&M at Drexel at 2:00 P.M.
Charleston at JMU at 4:00 P.M.

It's disappointing to have a Saturday with five games and be on one regional sports network.

There are two games on Monday and one game on Tuesday. Thursday's normally have four games, but Elon and W&M are playing Thursday and next Saturday. If there are no more postponements, 44 of 90 games will be by next Saturday.

This made me realize that the CAA hasn't made short weekly YouTube videos previewing games this season. They also haven't had coaches' teleconferences.

[Wags]

UNCW finally lost a conference game tonight.

Was thinking they'd come back to Earth in the second half after that perfect 9-0 first half. And when I saw the first game of the second half was at Elon, I figured well, that would make perfect sense for this league - they wouldn't lose their first game against one of the other top teams, it would be a team you'd expect them to beat. Sure enough, Elon, after a 31-31 first, had a big second half offensively and pulled away for a 78-65 win.

On the flip side, Northeastern amazingly falls to 0-11 in the CAA. Had a chance to win late, but lost at home to JMU, 76-71. It would be so fitting for this league if NU goes 0-18, then because of Coen and because of the talent people at least thought they had in the preseason, they squeak by the 7 seed by a point or two and do the same to the 2 seed in D.C. lol

[Wags]

Noticed that ESPN bracketology currently has UNCW in the PLAY-IN game against New Orleans, with the winner to face Gonzaga.

How does the CAA get so little respect when it's normally ranked within the top half of conferences every year?

I didn't expect a 12 seed or anything like that, but really?!?! A play-in game for the current leader of the conference that is presently ranked 13th in the nation?

What is going on with that?

Maybe Hofstra would do a little better because of the win at Arkansas and the close losses at Houston and Maryland?

It's kind of deflating for the CAA tournament. You hope Hofstra wins so they could then have the chance at an upset in a 3/14 NCAAT game, but rooting for them to win the CAA tourney only to maybe end up in play-in game and in the bracket with a 1 seed? Makes the CAA considerably tourney less fun IMO.

[EvanJ]

The Selection Committee considers how teams did in all games, not just conference games. UNCW is 199th in the NET, which is seventh in the CAA. A few days ago (I'm assuming it is still true now), the other 31 teams leading their conference standings were in the top four in their conference in the NET. Joe Lunardi understandably takes the first place team in the conference standings, which doesn't mean he thinks it's the team from that conference that would get the best seed. Furthermore, the Selection Committee giving Team X a better seed than Team Y is not claiming that Conference X is better than Conference Y. Towson (75th) and us (98th) would easily avoid the First Four. If we win the CAA Tournament, I would be very surprised by any seed other than 14 or 15. I think Delaware, Drexel, and Charleston would avoid the First Four. Elon, W&M, and Northeastern would be in the First Four. If UNCW wins the CAA Tournament, whether or not they play in the First Four will be determined by if other conference tournaments have upsets. For example, Vermont is 62nd in the NET, banned Stony Brook is 235th, and Maryland-Baltimore County (UMBC) is 238th, so UNCW would be seeded better than the America East champion if it isn't Vermont. In the Northeast (NEC), Wagner is 115th in the NET, and Bryant is next best in 229th. Considering each team's probability of winning the CAA Tournament and probability of avoiding the First Four if they make the NCAA Tournament, I give the CAA over a 50 percent chance at avoiding the First Four. I'm not guessing a percentage. I'm just saying it's more likely than not to avoid the First Four.

[Wags]

The Selection Committee considers how teams did in all games, not just conference games. UNCW is 199th in the NET, which is seventh in the CAA. A few days ago (I'm assuming it is still true now), the other 31 teams leading their conference standings were in the top four in their conference in the NET. Joe Lunardi understandably takes the first place team in the conference standings, which doesn't mean he thinks it's the team from that conference that would get the best seed. Furthermore, the Selection Committee giving Team X a better seed than Team Y is not claiming that Conference X is better than Conference Y. Towson (75th) and us (98th) would easily avoid the First Four. If we win the CAA Tournament, I would be very surprised by any seed other than 14 or 15. I think Delaware, Drexel, and Charleston would avoid the First Four. Elon, W&M, and Northeastern would be in the First Four. If UNCW wins the CAA Tournament, whether or not they play in the First Four will be determined by if other conference tournaments have upsets. For example, Vermont is 62nd in the NET, banned Stony Brook is 235th, and Maryland-Baltimore County (UMBC) is 238th, so UNCW would be seeded better than the America East champion if it isn't Vermont. In the Northeast (NEC), Wagner is 115th in the NET, and Bryant is next best in 229th. Considering each team's probability of winning the CAA Tournament and probability of avoiding the First Four if they make the NCAA Tournament, I give the CAA over a 50 percent chance at avoiding the First Four. I'm not guessing a percentage. I'm just saying it's more likely than not to avoid the First Four.

Yeah, I get it with a 199 NET. But suppose they win over 20 games and win the regular season and CAA tourney titles. If you do that in the 13th-best conference in the nation, I would think you should do much better than a play-in game. It wouldn't be like last year, when Drexel won the CAA tourney as a 6 seed and was only 12-8 in a shortened season, and got a 16 seed against Ilinois. That I could understand. Hopefully, if Hofstra wins the CAA tourney, they can at least get to a 14 seed or get in a 2/15 matchup that might give them a fighting chance like a few other 15s have had in upsets they pulled. Because if a 16 directly against a 1 or a play-in game is the ceiling now, then why should we care so much about the CAA tourney? The idea is to win that and at least have a chance in that first NCAAT game or it kind of takes a lot of the fun out of the CAA tourney and making the dance in the first place.

[EvanJ]

I think we could go 1-2 or maybe even 0-3 in the regular season and get a 15 seed if we win the CAA Tournament including beating Towson. I'm not saying that 1-2 or 0-3 and winning the CAA Tournament is likely. I'm just giving a hypothetical. With JMU's loss at Towson, UNCW passed JMU for the sixth best NET. If UNCW wins the CAA Tournament including beating us and Towson, they could avoid the First Four. I thought the NCAA had NET and RPI after every date of previous seasons, but I only found this season, so I went elsewhere to find the NETs after the postseason of last season's First Four. They were Appalachian State in 215th, Norfolk State in 183rd, Mount St. Mary's in 180th, and Texas Southern in 190th. I have no idea how much the Selection Committee values 20 wins and regular season titles for mid-majors. Since a majority of tournaments end after the CAA, we will know what to root for for the CAA champion to get a better seed. There are conferences where we would root for upsets to have UNCW avoid the First Four where Towson and us would be seeded better than every team in those conferences.

[Wags]

I have no idea how much the Selection Committee values 20 wins and regular season titles for mid-majors.

I know they valued mid-major regular-season titles a lot in 2006. They claimed it was the deciding factor in choosing George Mason over Hofstra even after Hofstra beat Mason twice in 11 days, including in the CAA semis (even though Mason also had one of their own on the selection committee and although Hofstra still should've been in over either Air Force or Utah State anyway).

[EvanJ]

UNCW won that regular season title, not George Mason. We beat George Mason in the 2-3 Semifinal. What hurt us were BracketBusters. They often paired near equal teams, but we were drawn against Siena, who was much worse. George Mason won at Wichita State on national TV. Wichita State finished that season 26-9 with two NCAA Tournament wins, and that was one of their two home losses.

Going back to this season, anybody watching CBS Sports Network saw Elon and Northeastern combine to commit 13 fouls before the first made free throw. Elon is 0-1, and Northeastern is 0-0. With 3:52 left in the half, Elon committed a foul, and Northeastern will shoot a one-and-one after the timeout. Elon leads 21-17.

Edit: Northeastern missed the first of a one-and-one, and Elon's Hunter Woods made the first free throws with 2:40 left in the half that came from the fifteenth foul of the game. Elon leads 30-20 at halftime, so Elon has allowed 75 in their last one-and-a-half games.

[Wags]

UNCW won that regular season title, not George Mason. We beat George Mason in the 2-3 Semifinal. What hurt us were BracketBusters. They often paired near equal teams, but we were drawn against Siena, who was much worse. George Mason won at Wichita State on national TV. Wichita State finished that season 26-9 with two NCAA Tournament wins, and that was one of their two home losses.

They only count it that way for conference tournament seeding. UNCW was the 1 and George Mason the 2 based on the tiebreaker. But they were both 15-3 and co-regular season champions. George Mason's co-regular season title is what the committee pointed to when it was criticized for selecting George Mason over Hofstra. The committee didn't mention the BracketBusters at all.

[EvanJ]

Discussing 2005-2006 is a tangent, but we had a couple of problems. One was that we had no great nonconference wins, and lost 69-50 at Notre Dame. The other was the 94-91 loss at Towson, who went 12-16, as Gary Neal scored 34. If we beat Towson, we would have been tri-champions, and we would have been the 1 seed because we were 1-0 vs. George Mason, 1-1 vs. UNCW, and George Mason split with UNCW. If we beat Towson, maybe George Mason doesn't get an at-large bid and is still in the CAA. Seasons should be judged independently, but it matters how good the Selection Committee thinks a conference is in the long run, and if George Mason didn't get an at-large bid in 2005-2006, maybe VCU wouldn't have gotten an at-large bid when they went to the Final Four either. I don't know how many people were on the committee, but when teams get 11s, maybe one or two of ten (I'm making up those numbers) having a different opinion would have kept those teams out. Our loss to Towson could be one of the most beneficial games ever to a team not in the game.

http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=403286 will have statistics of Delaware at Towson.

[EvanJ]

Joe Lunardi gave Towson a 14. They have a better NET than every team in 18 conferences, so the NET would give them a 12.