Flying Dutchmen Fans

By going 2-0 tonight with wins by Northeastern and Drexel, the CAA now leads the Atlantic 10 in out of conference winning percentage. I found every conference's out of conference winning percentage in the last eight complete seasons, and the Atlantic 10 had a better out of conference winning percentage than the CAA every time. The CAA is 12th in the Conference RPI and a little behind the Mid-American Conference. If the CAA passes the MAC, the CAA will be 11th, which is what they were last season. Northeastern's win at Kent State of the MAC helped.

EvanJ wrote:By going 2-0 tonight with wins by Northeastern and Drexel, the CAA now leads the Atlantic 10 in out of conference winning percentage. I found every conference's out of conference winning percentage in the last eight complete seasons, and the Atlantic 10 had a better out of conference winning percentage than the CAA every time. The CAA is 12th in the Conference RPI and a little behind the Mid-American Conference. If the CAA passes the MAC, the CAA will be 11th, which is what they were last season. Northeastern's win at Kent State of the MAC helped.

Not sure where you are going with this. Winning percentage in itself doesn't reveal much- how good were the opponents?

What I would be interested in seeing is where the CAA ranked when the league had multiple bids. And that is an imperfect indicator as well, because there are other factors. For example, did the CAA favorite get picked off, did other bubble teams lose, etc.

Suffice to say, unless we wildly overachieve the rest of the way (go something like 17-3) we aren't getting an at-large.

You can change the year in http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/conferencerpi to anything 2010 or later. The eight complete seasons include VCU's at-large bid when they went to the Final Four. I wasn't trying to say we can get an at-large bid. Towson is the only CAA team with a chance. If they win at Oakland and Pittsburgh (in the ACC but in the middle position of the RPI), go 15-3 in the CAA, and go 2-1 in the CAA Tournament, they will be 27-5 vs. Division I. http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Towson.html has them going 14-4 in the CAA with an expected RPI of 48.1, which won't be enough for an at-large bid. If Hofstra is locked into a seed before they end the regular season hosting Towson, I might root for Towson hoping for them to get an at-large bid.

The CAA's Conference RPI has been great since ODU/VCU/GMU left, we really haven't skipped a beat. We were 9 in the RPI last time we got a multi-bid, we were 9 in '16 and 11 last season.

Most of that is because the power conferences have consolidated all the power, so we have moved up in a de-facto fashion. The CAA hasn't had that high end team that ODU/VCU/GMU were able to produce to get the at-large.

Overall though, the RPI has been progressively de-emphasized by the selection committee, for better or worse. I do believe the RPI does accurately order the most deserving teams to make the NCAAT, but not necessarily the best teams. Personally, I use the Pomeroy Ratings, which takes into account offensive and defensive efficiencies, as a more true barometer of where our team stands, currently we're 142nd, and Towson is 98th for reference.

Flying Dutchmen wrote: The CAA's Conference RPI has been great since ODU/VCU/GMU left, we really haven't skipped a beat. We were 9 in the RPI last time we got a multi-bid, we were 9 in '16 and 11 last season.

The CAA has had good seasons since those teams left, but there were bad seasons mixed in. The CAA was 19th in 2014-2015 and 22nd in 2012-2013 with 11 teams after VCU left before the other teams left.
We're 109 spots ahead of James Madison in Pomeroy and 271 spots ahead of James Madison in RPI.