MBB Game 20 William & Mary, Jan 25 (Thu), 7 PM

[Wags]

Thomas is now over 2,000 career pts and over 1,000 at Hofstra.

On how many shots?

1,760 career (only 1.14 PPS)
844 at Hofstra (only 1.19 PPS)

[dutchPride86]

Probably the most underwhelming wire to wire win I've seen from them in a long time. A good Hofstra team wins that game by 20+ in their sleep. Case in point from around the league tonight...

-Charleston pulled away late to win by 24 at Hampton
-Delaware beat A&T by 21
-UNCW blew out Northeastern by 23 on the road

Not much else needs to be said about Tyler at this point. Hofstra will lose to an angry Monmouth coming off a loss if they bring tonight's level effort.

Side note, curious to anyone there how the energy level was in the gym? Watching on Flo felt like it was a low level NEC game tonight

[joeg1]

Lou Holtz used to have a mantra:

WIN = What's important now

Sorry to get on Speedy again, but he could take a little of that advice. Tonight, the "now" part was to order TT to stop shooting 3's (1/12 ???) and guard the only guy on the other team who was scoring. Win the game you are playing now. Don't let it spiral out of control before you adjust. We should have won by 30. W&M is awful.

[triplec2195]

Yes should have won by more especially when we had the 15 point lead but without Tyler scoring 20 points it has to be a whole bunch of others and we get a good contribution from Plotnikov and also from Fritz . I saw this game and we played hard thought our defense was really good but that kid Dorsey hit one tough shot after another some long NBA three type shots and they weren't catch and shoot. He hit quite a few shots of the dribble. A very impressive player.

I got to talk to Bryce briefly after the game and told him at least you had a lead at the half. It's nice when you don't have to play from behind and said yeah against the better teams it will be difficult.

[Wags]

I got to talk to Bryce briefly after the game and told him at least you had a lead at the half.

First time in five games. The last halftime lead was against Delaware.

[EvanJ]

It was the seventh time from 2010-2011 to now that we won with 64 or fewer points scored and 55 or fewer points allowed. The previous time was a 61-43 win over Drexel in the CAA Quarterfinals on March 8, 2020.

On the Analytics tab, the net points statistic thinks Thomas was the best player on either team. Fritz led in efficiency, and Gabe Dorsey led in game score. That means the top two scorers on the winning team did not lead all players in any of those three statistics.

William & Mary had to foul five times to put us in the bonus.

The CAA's leading scorer tonight did it in a loss by 21. Charleston led by only 4 at halftime at Hampton before scoring 64 in the second half to win 107-86. Charleston's Ante Brzovic scored 31, and Hampton's Kyrese Mullen scored 32.

Drexel got their first CAA loss. Host Towson led by 4 at halftime, and went up 15 in the second half. Drexel ended by missing a three that would have tied the game, and Towson won 70-67. Towson's Nendah Tarke led all players with 18 points. He played his previous three seasons in the same area for Coppin State.

Delaware won 90-71 hosting North Carolina A&T. Four players scored 21 or 22, and that does not include Delaware's Christian Ray, who almost had a triple-double with 12 points, 16 rebounds, and 9 assists.

UNCW won 77-54 at Northeastern. UNCW's Shykeim Phillips led all players with 17 points. He shot well, and had 7 rebounds and 6 assists. Northeastern was led by Masai Troutman and Jared Turner with 9 points, and neither of them had a rebound. It must be very rare for a team to have neither of its top two scorers get a rebound. Northeastern's Chris Doherty averages 6.8 rebounds and had 1. Each team had ten players score at least 2 points.

Stony Brook won 72-65 hosting Monmouth. Both teams scored at least twice as many points in the second half than in the first half. Monmouth's Xander Rice and Stony Brook's Aaron Clarke tied for the lead with 18 points. Clarke did not start, but led his team with 34 minutes.

Vampbell led 39-38 at halftime and won 78-68 hosting Elon. Campbell's Anthony Dell'Orso led all players with 29 points, and led his team with 9 rebounds.

[Wags]

Lou Holtz used to have a mantra:

WIN = What's important now

Sorry to get on Speedy again, but he could take a little of that advice. Tonight, the "now" part was to order TT to stop shooting 3's (1/12 ???) and guard the only guy on the other team who was scoring. Win the game you are playing now. Don't let it spiral out of control before you adjust. We should have won by 30. W&M is awful.

Was not a thing of beauty but all Ws look good and that's the main thing. However, you're completely right about what you said. There seems to be an "ostrich" approach with Thomas (bury heads in the sand and pretend it's not happening).

Thomas is 2/25 from 3 in his past three games. Why is a guy who's made only two 3s over three games allowed to average about EIGHT 3s over those three games? He's 18/78 (23.1%) from 3 over his past 7 games, since going 6/8 grom 3 against St. John's. That's 11 3s attempted per game over those seven games for a guy shooting 3s at just 23% in those games.

They seem to let the one great game from 3 or the one small stretch where he'll make two straight in a game affect all of the other decision-making. What are the assistants doing? Are they looking at these numbers? Are they charting shots and reporting back to Speedy? I would assume so but when you see numbers like that and they keep doing the same thing, who knows? And then how do they not adjust?

Speedy's comment after the game shows how they're maybe too wrapped up in what Thomas does as being "the team's" shooting. He said, "It was a tough night for us shooting the basketball… so we had to kind of rely on the defensive end. That kind of just carried us to the win." Yes, defense carried them, but was it a tough shooting night aside from Thomas? Not at all. The rest of the team went 20/39 overall and 7/15 from 3, which is exactly the whole thing - recognize when others not named Thomas ARE shooting well and spare Thomas miss after miss, after miss, and get it to the other guys who are actually making shots.

Even before tonight, with Thomas going 17/66 (25.8%) from 3 over the prior six games, you can't allow him to then start tonight (as he did) 0/4 from 3 with all four being from 3. Take a 2, get to the line, let THAT open up the 3 a little bit. And when 17/66 over six games starts with 0/4 tonight, you can't let 0/4 turn into 1/12 and 18/78, especially when the rest of the team was 7/15 from 3 with no one besides Thomas taking more than four 3s tonight, and when you have Dubar and Plotnikov being efficient and even Thomas being efficient (3/5 tonight) from 2. The leash has been way too long for far too long and when they're not playing W&M and Stony Brook anymore, and they're playing the tough schedule they're going to close with (Drexel twice within three games, at UNCW, at Charleston, the CAA tourney), that long leash is going to cost them their season if they don't change course with that.

[triplec2195]

Certainly shooting the three has been Tyler's strength but it does make sense for him to take more shots inside the ARC but are we asking a Home Run hitter now to just hit singles! Tyler made the remark in the presser that he is just working hard to get his rhythm back but is this what the problem is. He doesn't appear to be natural when shooting that shot too much thinking almost like he's aiming the ball. This team having relied on his 3 point point production game in and game out now faces the unenviable task of having to try to make up some of those missing points and play lockdown D to win basketball games. It certainly makes a lot of sense to score from 2 rather then shoot inefficiently from 3 but the question really is will Speedy try to force him at this point in the season to hit doubles rather then hitting home runs??

[HUSID80]

Thomas is now over 2,000 career pts and over 1,000 at Hofstra.

I think he's chasing those numbers and its hurt his production. Thinking too much as you said Wags...lets see if he relaxes more going forward and plays up to his level.

[Wags]

Thomas is now over 2,000 career pts and over 1,000 at Hofstra.

I think he's chasing those numbers and its hurt his production. Thinking too much as you said Wags...lets see if he relaxes more going forward and plays up to his level.

He could have reached those milestones sooner with much better shot selection.

[EvanJ]

On CSNBBS, W&M fans weren't happy. I posted that neither team's fans were happy, that they won against the spread, and that they might have won if they defended Plotnikov, who averages 5.1 points and shoots great.

Thomas lost the CAA scoring lead to North Carolina A&T's Landon Glasper, who shoots worse at .365. I wonder what the worst field goal percentage in any season by a guy who led his conference in points per game is. I assumed Thomas would lose the national lead in threes made per game, but he still leads. He's the only player averaging over 10 threes attempted.

[Wags]

Certainly shooting the three has been Tyler's strength

That may have been the case last year, but it's a myth this year. This year, he's bombs a lot more than last year, whether he's making them or not.

Granted, his total shots (including 3s) were always going to go up this year with Estrada's departure. But...

Last year, he attempted double-digit 3s in six games and generally shot the 3 very well in those games - only one bad 3/10 game from 3. The others were 5/10, 5/10, 6/10, 5/11, and 5/12.

Different story this year. Not yet halfway through CAA play, he's already had 11 games with double-digit 3-point attempts and aside from 3-4 games including one we can't really count, it has been pretty bad: 3/11, 1/12, 3/12, 4/12, 7/13, 8/13 (vs. D-III St. Joseph's), 5/14, 6/14, 3/15, 4/15, 6/15 (7 of the 11 under 36% from 3 including 5 that were 27% or worse).

Last year, 49% of his total shots were from 3. This year, 55% of his total shots are from 3, when he's shooting the 3 significantly worse in a lot of games than last year.

It certainly makes a lot of sense to score from 2 rather then shoot inefficiently from 3 but the question really is will Speedy try to force him at this point in the season to hit doubles rather then hitting home runs??

If they want to go as far as they can, he'll need to. But from what we've seen and heard all season, it appears that the leash is still very long with no signs it will shorten regardless of whatever Thomas' actual shooting results will continue to be from behind the arc.

[Wags]

He's the only player averaging over 10 threes attempted.

The only player in the nation attempting double-digit 3s per game yet shooting 3-pointers 5.7% worse than he did last year and he has shot 33.3% or worse from 3 in half of his games this year (in 9 of the 20 games, it was 27.3% or worse). Doesn't have to be complicated - if you're on that day, great. Fire way. But if you're not making them, stop taking so many and redistribute those shots elsewhere or get 2s or FTA for yourself. Otherwise, you're just hurting the offense and every game is a grind to try to win.

[Wags]

Probably the most underwhelming wire to wire win I've seen from them in a long time. A good Hofstra team wins that game by 20+ in their sleep. Case in point from around the league tonight...

-Charleston pulled away late to win by 24 at Hampton
-Delaware beat A&T by 21
-UNCW blew out Northeastern by 23 on the road

Not much else needs to be said about Tyler at this point. Hofstra will lose to an angry Monmouth coming off a loss if they bring tonight's level effort.

Side note, curious to anyone there how the energy level was in the gym? Watching on Flo felt like it was a low level NEC game tonight

Not to keep harping on Thomas' shooting, but if he shoots even decently or passes up some of his missed 3s for others who were making shots last night, they probably do win by 20+ instead of just nine. I thought the team effort, especially defensively, was good.

The energy level was okay for having under 1,400 in attendance and a limited Lion's Den. Some who were there were into it but with the crowd size and students not yet back into the fold, it's a challenge to raise the energy level in that case.

Side note of my own, I'm not a fan of the extra media timeout rule. In between the usual U16 (15:15) and the U12 (11:25), there was an extra media timeout at 13:46. By rule, the first timeout by either team in the second half is extended to a media timeout. I don't get the rule. Why not just make that a regular timeout when you already have the four usual MTOs?

[triplec2195]

Certainly shooting the three has been Tyler's strength

That may have been the case last year, but it's a myth this year. This year, he's bombs a lot more than last year, whether he's making them or not.

Granted, his total shots (including 3s) were always going to go up this year with Estrada's departure. But...

Last year, he attempted double-digit 3s in six games and generally shot the 3 very well in those games - only one bad 3/10 game from 3. The others were 5/10, 5/10, 6/10, 5/11, and 5/12).

Different story this year. Not yet halfway through CAA play, he's already had 11 games with double-digit 3-point attempts and aside from 3-4 games, it has been pretty bad: 3/11, 1/12, 3/12, 4/12, 7/13, 8/13 (vs. DII St. Joseph's), 5/14, 6/14, 3/15, 4/15, 6/15 (7 of the 11 under 36% from 3 including 5 that were 27% or worse).

Last year, 49% of his total shots were from 3. This year, 55% of his total shots are from 3, when he's shooting the 3 significantly worse in a lot of games than last year.

It certainly makes a lot of sense to score from 2 rather then shoot inefficiently from 3 but the question really is will Speedy try to force him at this point in the season to hit doubles rather then hitting home runs??

If they want to go as far as they can, he'll need to. But from what we've seen and heard all season, it appears that the leash is still very with no signs it will shorten regardless of whatever Thomas' actual shooting results will continue to be from behind the arc.

You can probably make the case that TT percentages were up last year in no small part due to all the attention Estrada was receiving. Now every team we play has him as their game plan to stop.

After listening to Speedy post presser and Tom Parotta in the Pride Lounge it does seem that really nothing is going to change other then finding different ways to get him better looks. I didn't like them when they're attacking the basket and getting to the foul line. We shall see what direction they go in.

[Wags]

You can probably make the case that TT percentages were up last year in no small part due to all the attention Estrada was receiving. Now every team we play has him as their game plan to stop.

This, for sure, is a major factor but I think it's more than that. The loss of Estrada has seemed to not only affect how opposing teams are guarding Thomas but affect Hofstara with the non-stop green light HU's staff has given Thomas. Rather than allow the top scoring option to replace Estrada be a competition (one that Dubar has earned to this point), it seems that HU's staff made its mind up early that Thomas would get that role by default. And now, instead of adjusting, they appear to be sticking with that no matter what Thomas does, praying that he'll somehow be a lot more efficient. But hope is not a strategy, especially when there are things they can do to help Thomas and to help the offense as a whole.

After listening to Speedy post presser and Tom Parotta in the Pride Lounge it does seem that really nothing is going to change other then finding different ways to get him better looks.

Sounds great on the surface but I'm not sure this is the problem. He's doing things like putting up airballs and hitting the side of the backboard. And many of these misses when he's going 1/12 or 3/15 from 3 are already open looks. So if he's already getting those and still missing a lot, the answer isn't to keep firing away from 3 with good looks he's not converting on. It's to trust the rest of his game (he CAN score in other ways, they just utilize it far too infrequently) and to trust his other teammates, especially when they have Dubar who can score efficiently and others (like Plotnikov starting and more in the mix now), maybe Washington, Robinson, and Carlos at times, who can all make shots in certain situations. Again, this doesn't have to be complicated. It's really about stubbornness in the face of what you're seeing vs. adjusting the way you know you can.

[dutchPride86]

There's no defending 1-12 from 3, but I do think the quality of Thomas' shots has been better the last 2 games and that they've been able to somewhat curtail the "hero ball." Not far enough, but baby steps in the right direction.

The problem to me is twofold-

1. The staff let it get way out of hand, and Thomas lost his rhythm and confidence in the process. And for a shooter like Tyler, the only way out of a slump is to shoot your way through it. He's bricked some quality looks the last couple games. Yes he's not the elite shooter they think he is, but he's still significantly better than what he's shown

2. Even with Dubar as the better #1 option, the team just doesn't have enough offensive pieces to beat the top teams in the CAA if Tyler isn't scoring 16-20 ppg.

So would Thomas going 3-8 from 3 and Dubar getting 4 more shots be preferable to the 1-12 we saw last night? Of course. But Thomas has fallen so deeply into a slump he would have still been only 1-8 taking only quality looks last night.

And not to be all negative - German is averaging 11 ppg in his 3 games as starter, and Bryce is averaging 6.7 off the bench. That's a good 6-7 more ppg between the two than they were getting before making that swap, so it's not like the staff hasn't done something to improve the offense

[Wags]

There's no defending 1-12 from 3, but I do think the quality of Thomas' shots has been better the last 2 games and that they've been able to somewhat curtail the "hero ball." Not far enough, but baby steps in the right direction.

The problem to me is twofold-

1. The staff let it get way out of hand, and Thomas lost his rhythm and confidence in the process. And for a shooter like Tyler, the only way out of a slump is to shoot your way through it. He's bricked some quality looks the last couple games. Yes he's not the elite shooter they think he is, but he's still significantly better than what he's shown

2. Even with Dubar as the better #1 option, the team just doesn't have enough offensive pieces to beat the top teams in the CAA if Tyler isn't scoring 16-20 ppg.

So would Thomas going 3-8 from 3 and Dubar getting 4 more shots be preferable to the 1-12 we saw last night? Of course. But Thomas has fallen so deeply into a slump he would have still been only 1-8 taking only quality looks last night.

And not to be all negative - German is averaging 11 ppg in his 3 games as starter, and Bryce is averaging 6.7 off the bench. That's a good 6-7 more ppg between the two than they were getting before making that swap, so it's not like the staff hasn't done something to improve the offense

Any shooter can have slumps, so it's not the 1/12 by itself. It's context tied to the 1/12. It wasn't like - well, no one else is hitting either, so let's see if Thomas can get hot. It's the 1/12 out of 17 total shots. When you're missing that badly, why do you as a player and how does a staff allow that to be so disproportioned? He went 3/5 from 2. That's efficient. Do more of that and a let less of what is not working. And it's also the 1/12 when everyone else was 7/15 from 3 with no one else taking more than four 3s. To me, that still IS hero ball. Recognize when you're off and you're just chucking, especially when the rest of the team is playing efficient team ball.

The staff deserves credit for the Plotnikov for Washington swap. Speedy said last night it was no knock on Washington (nor should it be - he is valuable off the bench), but it was just to shake something up a bit and it has worked. They're 3-0 since that move.

[triplec2195]

It's funny that Parotta only gave credit to Dubar stepping up in the Stony Brook game saying we finally had somebody step up when Tyler is not hitting his shots when in reality Dubar has been the most efficient shooter and playing both ends of the court. It's not just the points he's scoring but also the ones that he's stopping on the other end of the court. I was definitely taken back listening to that and was going to interrupt him but decided not to.

[Wags]

It's funny that Parotta only gave credit to Dubar stepping up in the Stony Brook game saying we finally had somebody step up when Tyler is not hitting his shots when in reality Dubar has been the most efficient shooter and playing both ends of the court. It's not just the points he's scoring but also the ones that he's stopping on the other end of the court. I was definitely taken back listening to that and was going to interrupt him but decided not to.

Again, the perception vs. the reality (overall, but particularly with Dubar) is mystifying.