MBB @ Delaware, Saturday, 2/12/22, 6:30 PM

[Jojogunne]

The Hens are up next:

https://gohofstra.com/news/2022/2/11/me ... aware.aspx

This will be our 99th game vs. Delaware, the most we've played against any one opponent. We've won 10 of the last 12 games.

I assume the team will come home tomorrow night and head down to Elon on Monday?

[HUSID74]

ESPN says Delaware's chance of winning 50.6 % essentially making them a slight favorite.

If you look at Sagarin's overall ratings Delaware should be less than a half point favorite. However, if you look a Sagarin's RECENT Index we come out as 3.2point favs.

Should be a good game...we need this one to separate us from all the also rans.

[triplec2195]

ESPN says Delaware's chance of winning 50.6 % essentially making them a slight favorite.

If you look at Sagarin's overall ratings Delaware should be less than a half point favorite. However, if you look a Sagarin's RECENT Index we come out as 3.2point favs.

Should be a good game...we need this one to separate us from all the also rans.

Yes not a must win but an important game to stay in front of Delaware and again to prove we're a better team. They have been playing without Painter which is a big plus for us if he doesn't play since he had 15 points and ten rebounds in the 1st game. We also played without Cooks in that game which should also favor us.

[Wags]

Huge game. Not the end of the world if they were to lose a close one tomorrow, but to get a season sweep over one of the other top-four teams in the conference, to guarantee a winning record on this three-game road swing, to have four straight wins, and have a very solid 9-4 record in the league, with only one road game left before closing with four at home, would be very big. That would continue some tremendous momentum going into the last five regular season games. Big opportunity. Having the Ray we saw last night rather than the Ray who's been quiet in too many games this year would help a lot.

To Z-man's point in the Drexel game thread, I hope opposing teams don't start keying too much on Estrada and make others on HU beat them. They should, but hopefully they won't. HU can still win that way if Ray, Cooks and Dubar primarily (and with Silverio, Iyiola, Burgess maybe chipping in) would make opponents pay for that. But since Estrada has by far been the most consistent for HU, it's likely an opponent strategy we would not want to see.

FYI - the date in the subject should be 2/12.

[cactus]

I'd actually like to see teams start doubling Estrada now so they're better prepared for it in the tournament. Although the way he is playing right now he could probably win a game playing 1 on 5.

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[Jojogunne]

Wags, it would be great to go 3-0 on this road trip. At this stage of the season, every game is important. Got to maintain momentum going into to CAAT (sorry if I sound like Polito).

Regarding Dylan Painter, he suffered an ankle injury two weeks ago, but was not wearing his boot on Thursday. UD fans are hoping he returns tomorrow night.

https://www.gohens.net/boards/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=28251

[Jojogunne]

Speaking of Delaware, how many of you remember Mike Pegues?

The Delaware big man was a great opponent back in Jay Wright days. Mike won the America East POTY award when Speedy was a junior. Speedy had won the award as a sophomore and senior. I always thought he should have won it as a junior as well, but that's the homer in me.

At any rate, while looking through the Hen Hoops discussion group a few minutes ago, I discovered that Mike Pegues is now Louisville's interim head coach, making a cool $340,000. Sorry if this is old news to anyone here.

https://www.gohens.net/boards/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=28203

Here's more detail, including some references to the "Rick Pitino scandal." Funny how that tag never goes away.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-baske ... ike-pegues

https://www.si.com/college/2022/01/26/c ... l-official

[EvanJ]

https://s3.amazonaws.com/sidearm.sites/ ... game26.pdf is Hofstra's Game Notes.

https://bluehens.com/news/2022/2/11/men ... fstra.aspx is Delaware's preview. Hosting Northeastern, they shot 60 percent. It was the third time this season they shot at least 60 percent. Before this season, the last time they shot at least 60 percent was in a 110-66 win hosting Northeastern in their last America East Semifinal on March 4, 2001.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/bluehens.com/d ... fstra2.pdf is Delaware's Game Notes. Dylan Painter is doubtful. Anthony Ochefu, whose only game was 3 minutes on January 24, will return. He averaged 2.1 points and 2.6 rebounds in 7.9 minutes as a senior for them last season after three seasons for Stony Brook.

I wonder why it is a night game.

https://stats.statbroadcast.com/statmonitr/?id=368299 will have statistics.

[joeg1]

It is considered a night game because the start is after 6pm

[triplec2195]

Speaking of Delaware, how many of you remember Mike Pegues?

The Delaware big man was a great opponent back in Jay Wright days. Mike won the America East POTY award when Speedy was a junior. Speedy had won the award as a sophomore and senior. I always thought he should have won it as a junior as well, but that's the homer in me.

At any rate, while looking through the Hen Hoops discussion group a few minutes ago, I discovered that Mike Pegues is now Louisville's interim head coach, making a cool $340,000. Sorry if this is old news to anyone here.

https://www.gohens.net/boards/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=28203

Here's more detail, including some references to the "Rick Pitino scandal." Funny how that tag never goes away.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-baske ... ike-pegues

https://www.si.com/college/2022/01/26/c ... l-official

Here's the article recapping the game; Pegues fouled out with 3:36 minutes to go in the game which hurt their chances but it was the Norman Richardson/ Craig SPEEDY Claxton show. https://www.espn.com/ncb/2000/20000311/ ... aghak.html

[triplec2195]

We're 1.5 point favorites with and O/U of 148.5.

[HofstraMathew]

I was actually wondering why Hofstra doesn't have any night home games on a Saturday this year. I assume it is there decision since most (maybe all Saturday?) games aren't on TV. A later game works better for me but maybe with family's driving attendance they feel the earlier games are better?

[HUSID74]

I liked the Saturday game start at 4 pm over 2 pm.
With a 2 pm start you really couldn't get much done on Saturday.
With 4 pm you go to the game then dinner afterward, made for a nice evening.

[HofstraMathew]

I liked the Saturday game start at 4 pm over 2 pm.
With a 2 pm start you really couldn't get much done on Saturday.
With 4 pm you go to the game then dinner afterward, made for a nice evening.

Yea that is a good point. 4pm seemed to be a good sweet spot.

[HUSID74]

Strange. ESPN has us as one-points favs, yet gives us less than a 50% chance of winning.
Never saw that.

[CTDutch]

I liked the Saturday game start at 4 pm over 2 pm.
With a 2 pm start you really couldn't get much done on Saturday.
With 4 pm you go to the game then dinner afterward, made for a nice evening.

Have to disagree 74. 2:00 game much better for those traveling from CT. Love the 2:00s, used to hate the 4:00s

[EvanJ]

It is considered a night game because the start is after 6pm

Thank you for the definition of a night game, but that wasn't what I was asking. I was asking why Delaware chose that time. Normally every CAA team except UNCW makes their Saturday games be day games.

Strange. ESPN has us as one-points favs, yet gives us less than a 50% chance of winning.
Never saw that.

If a line and probability come from the same formula (which is not what we are talking about), and they are really close, it's possible for a formula to produce a predicted score of 72.3-72.2 with the distribution such that the team averaging 72.2 has a 50.4 percent of winning (I made up those numbers). When you compare a line made by people to a formula, they don't have to agree, just like in the NFL playoffs the better seed is always at home but not always favored. If you take a sample of 100 games with a line of 0.5 or 1, there would be plenty that ESPN thought the underdog would win.

Starting home games at 2:00 P.M. instead of 4:00 P.M. makes it light and not as cold when games end. It doesn't affect me anymore. I hope Hofstra plays a nonconference game near me at some point. Even in a great year, Hofstra would probably lose at Creighton or Kansas. Nebraska is bad by the standards of a team in a top conference. I doubt Hofstra would come to play at mid-majors Omaha, Kansas City, South Dakota, or Drake, but you never know. Drake is in the Missouri Valley, and I'm assuming they might pay Hofstra, and the other mid-majors couldn't afford to.

Edit: There are blowouts at halftime, with Drexel leading Northeastern 36-16, and Towson leading Elon 42-16. Both leading teams are at home. Towson's color announcer said "the game is far from over." Towson's three leading scorers for the season combined to shoot 4-5 and score 11. Charles Thompson, who entered averaging 9.8 points, shot 8-9 to score 16. Thompson and Drexel's Xavier Bell, who scored 12, were the only double-digit scorers. Drexel outrebounded Northeastern 22-20, and Towson outrebounded Elon 18-10. The combined scores were similar, but the combined rebounds were not. Northeastern had more rebounds while down 20 than Towson had while up 26.

Edit: The first three games all had margins of at least 20 at halftime. Drexel won 67-51, Towson won 86-50, and JMU leads W&M 50-29 at halftime. JMU had 20 points off turnovers. I wonder how rare it is to have 20 points off turnovers in a half.

[EvanJ]

http://defiantlydutch.blogspot.com/2022 ... aware.html is Jerry Beach's "I'll Be Quirky: Hofstra at Delaware." Thursday was our first 83-73 win since against Colgate in the Hofstra Classic on December 5, 1986. It was the first time in at least 14 seasons that we were tied at halftime in both regular season games against a team. KenPom expects us to lose 76-75.

Edit: The area had at least two upsets today. Wagner entered tied for the fewest losses with 2, and were one of six teams that was undefeated in their conference. Not anymore. They lost 80-65 hosting Merrimack by being outscored 22-7 in overtime. Rutgers won 73-65 at Number 14 Wisconsin to get a three game winning streak, which were all against ranked teams.

Edit: After going down 24 early in the second half, W&M got within 11 before host JMU won 69-55. JMU is 4-3 away, and they are the only team to be in the bottom three in their conference standings and .500 or better away. There are 32 conferences, so that's 96 possible teams.

[Wags]

Although he continued his hot stretch from 3 (making his first two from there), Mr. Mid-Range started uncharacteristically cold inside the arc, missing his first five from there. But he just got one, so hopefully that'll straighten that out. Ray back to being cold again (1/4) after the great game at Drexel, and Silverio (1/5) cold as well, but nice to have Cramer back, who just threw down a big slam to give HU a 24-16 lead.

[Wags]

39-35, HU at the half. Biggest lead was 39-29 before the Hens closed with the last six of the half.

Hofstra has attempted only 8 shots from 3 out of the 38 shots they took. Very uncharacteristic of them, but it's helped them build their lead:

26-14, HU on 2-pointers.
26-10, HU in the paint.
18-6, HU on layups.

Nice balance from HU:
Estrada, Silverio, Simmons - 8 each, Dubar 6, Burgess 5
Ray and Cramer - 2 each for the other 4 pts