MBB vs. UNCW, Monday, 2/7/22, 5 PM

[Jojogunne]

Grudge match vs. UNCW. Early start due to TV coverage on the CBS sports Network:

https://gohofstra.com/news/2022/2/6/men ... onday.aspx

[EvanJ]

https://uncwsports.com/news/2022/2/6/me ... stead.aspx is UNCW's preview titled "Big Task Awaits Seahawks In Hempstead." It says we lead in "assist-turnover ratio (+4.09)," but the number is obviously turnover margin.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/sidearm.sites/ ... 020722.pdf is UNCW's Game Notes, which are an unusually long 65 pages. Page 4 lists the 47 head-to-head scores, followed by writing about every game. It mistakenly says "Scored 30 Or More Points: Jordon Talley, 30 vs. Hofstra, 01-31-21, L 89-83" as Talley graduated in 2018. It lists every game they scored at least 100 points in. It lists the time of their first points, and the field goal percentage in each half of every game. Since they have comeback wins, I expected their field goal percentage to be higher in the second halves, and it certainly is. They had a higher field goal percentage in the second half 17 times, the same in each half 2 times, and higher in the first half 3 times.

https://static.caasports.com/custompage ... M#team.ind has their statistics.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-baske ... /401401148 gives us an 87.6 percent chance at winning. TeamRankings expects us to win 75.4-68.3, which is by 7.1. The overall Sagarin expects us to win by 7.06. KenPom does not give home court advantage, and if you use the Sagarin's home court advantage, it expects us to win by 9.76, albeit KenPom's predicted scores don't match those margins, and I don't pay for KenPom to see the predicted scores. KenPom is the only rating I know of that rates teams as an amount of points above or below average. Gonzaga leads at +34.72, Towson leads the CAA at +8.77, we are second in the CAA at +4.43, UNCW is -2.73, W&M is last in the CAA at -18.18, and IUPUI is last at -32.85. That means Indiana University Purdue University Indianapolis, and it's the only school I know of that has "university" in the name twice.

[HUSID80]

ESPN giving us an 87.6 win percentage and we are 7.5 point favs….seems very high to me based upon our performance against them in NC.

[Hofstra]

Entering tomorrow, Aaron Estrada leads the nation in free throw (edited) percentage.

[Jojogunne]

I think you mean free-throw percentage (95.08).

Reyne Smith, a FR at C of C, is number two (94.83).

[Wags]

I think you mean free-throw percentage (95.08).

Reyne Smith, a FR at C of C, is number two (94.83).

Kinda cool that the top two nationally in FT% are both from the CAA, with No. 1 being a Hofstra player.

Estrada is clearly the CAA POY at this point. Besides the FT shooting...
* Not only the CAA's leading scorer at 18.0 ppg, but the only CAA player averaging at least 16 ppg.
* Leads the CAA in FG% at 47.9% (Elon's Darius Buford is next at 46.6%).
* Leads the CAA in assists (4.91).
* 5th in the CAA in defensive rebounds (4.91) - funny that this and the assists are the exact same average.
* 2nd in the CAA in AST/TO ratio (1.92).
* Tied for 7th in the CAA in steals (1.43).
* He was only 24.8% from 3 (25/101) before his last four games. Since then, he's 53.8% from 3 (14/26). If he continues that, he's unstoppable.

- Iyiola is 2nd in the CAA in offensive rebounds (3.37).
- Ray leads the CAA in 3-pt. FG% at 40.3%.

[Wags]

ESPN giving us an 87.6 win percentage and we are 7.5 point favs….seems very high to me based upon our performance against them in NC.

That seems insane considering not only HU's loss at UNCW, but what Towson did in a rematch after HU lost there. But let's hope those odds and spread are right!

[triplec2195]

ESPN giving us an 87.6 win percentage and we are 7.5 point favs….seems very high to me based upon our performance against them in NC.

That seems insane considering not only HU's loss at UNCW, but what Towson did in a rematch after HU lost there. But let's hope those odds and spread are right!

Do they have any key injuries that we don't know about.? Weren't we favored on their court as well?? Go figure but we need to get wins against teams that we will inevitably face in March to get to the NCAA.

[Wags]

This game is listed in some good company here:

https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status ... 3199149061

[HUSID74]

This game is listed in some good company here:

https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status ... 3199149061

Isn't Rothstein a CBS guy? Game is on CBSSN.

I like Monday games, not much happening in the sports world...let's get some national attention.

[Pride97]

Just wish it wasn't a 5p start time - i cant get out of work that early. I assume worse crowd than usual due to that.

[EvanJ]

I think you mean free-throw percentage (95.08).

Reyne Smith, a FR at C of C, is number two (94.83).

Kinda cool that the top two nationally in FT% are both from the CAA, with No. 1 being a Hofstra player.

Estrada is clearly the CAA POY at this point. Besides the FT shooting...
* Not only the CAA's leading scorer at 18.0 ppg, but the only CAA player averaging at least 16 ppg.
* Leads the CAA in FG% at 47.9% (Elon's Darius Buford is next at 46.6%).
* Leads the CAA in assists (4.91).
* 5th in the CAA in defensive rebounds (4.91) - funny that this and the assists are the exact same average.
* 2nd in the CAA in AST/TO ratio (1.92).
* Tied for 7th in the CAA in steals (1.43).
* He was only 24.8% from 3 (25/101) before his last four games. Since then, he's 53.8% from 3 (14/26). If he continues that, he's unstoppable.

- Iyiola is 2nd in the CAA in offensive rebounds (3.37).
- Ray leads the CAA in 3-pt. FG% at 40.3%.

I don't know what your source is, but it's very different from the CAA at https://static.caasports.com/custompage ... NFLDRS.HTM in terms of what players need to qualify for field goal percentage leaders. It has Elon's Michael Graham leading with a .644 field goal percentage, and fifteenth is at .491. Field goal percentage favors guys who don't shoot threes. Of the top ten, the most threes made is 12 by Delaware's Andrew Carr. The top shooter with at least one three made per game is Dubar shooting .540.

Estrada won his fourth Player of the Week. Delaware's Jyare Davis won his second consecutive Rookie of the Week. He's playing more because Dylan Painter is injured. For the season, Davis is averaging 5.8 points and shooting .578. We will face Davis on Saturday.

http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=368968 will have statistics.

[Wags]

I think you mean free-throw percentage (95.08).

Reyne Smith, a FR at C of C, is number two (94.83).

Kinda cool that the top two nationally in FT% are both from the CAA, with No. 1 being a Hofstra player.

Estrada is clearly the CAA POY at this point. Besides the FT shooting...
* Not only the CAA's leading scorer at 18.0 ppg, but the only CAA player averaging at least 16 ppg.
* Leads the CAA in FG% at 47.9% (Elon's Darius Buford is next at 46.6%).
* Leads the CAA in assists (4.91).
* 5th in the CAA in defensive rebounds (4.91) - funny that this and the assists are the exact same average.
* 2nd in the CAA in AST/TO ratio (1.92).
* Tied for 7th in the CAA in steals (1.43).
* He was only 24.8% from 3 (25/101) before his last four games. Since then, he's 53.8% from 3 (14/26). If he continues that, he's unstoppable.

- Iyiola is 2nd in the CAA in offensive rebounds (3.37).
- Ray leads the CAA in 3-pt. FG% at 40.3%.

I don't know what your source is, but it's very different from the CAA at https://static.caasports.com/custompage ... NFLDRS.HTM in terms of what players need to qualify for field goal percentage leaders. It has Elon's Michael Graham leading with a .644 field goal percentage, and fifteenth is at .491. Field goal percentage favors guys who don't shoot threes. Of the top ten, the most threes made is 12 by Delaware's Andrew Carr. The top shooter with at least one three made per game is Dubar shooting .540.

Estrada won his fourth Player of the Week. Delaware's Jyare Davis won his second consecutive Rookie of the Week. He's playing more because Dylan Painter is injured. For the season, Davis is averaging 5.8 points and shooting .578. We will face Davis on Saturday.

http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=368968 will have statistics.

Sorry, forgot to mention the FG% is based on a min. 5 FGM/game average, from CAAsports.com (page 12 at https://caasports.com/documents/2021/12 ... df?id=5283)
To me, that's a more important stat than a big who is higher than Estrada FG%-wise, at 50+% or 60+%, but who doesn't get that many buckets per game.

[ZMAN3]

ESPN giving us an 87.6 win percentage and we are 7.5 point favs….seems very high to me based upon our performance against them in NC.

That seems insane considering not only HU's loss at UNCW, but what Towson did in a rematch after HU lost there. But let's hope those odds and spread are right!

Point spreads are derived mostly from Power Ratings - HU built up a strong Rating based on their tough OCS and how well they performed against it. In reality HU should not have been favored at UNCW considering they were 7-0 at the time in conference to our 5-2 - especially 4'.
PS - Has been bet down to 6

[EvanJ]

Sorry, forgot to mention the FG% is based on a min. 5 FGM/game average, from CAAsports.com (page 12 at https://caasports.com/documents/2021/12 ... df?id=5283)
To me, that's a more important stat than a big who is higher than Estrada FG%-wise, at 50+% or 60+%, but who doesn't get that many buckets per game.

I didn't know that the CAA made that. It includes five players in field goal percentage, and four players in three-point field goal percentage, which is too few. Only 10.5 percent of the CAA's field goal attempts are by the five players who qualify. Anybody who averages at least 10 points per game from field goals deserves to qualify for field goal percentage, such as Dubar who averages 10.6. I like that it has statistics with a second decimal place.

Sub forward Amari Kelly is their only player who doesn't attempt any threes, but three of their top six scorers combined to have 18.7 percent of their attempts be threes. Jaylen Fornes leads them with 112 threes attempted, which is fewer than Ray (159), Silverio (143), and Estrada (127).

[Polito]

BIG game.

TERRIBLE time slot. Don't mind Monday games, but 5pm in NY is utterly ridiculous. TV didn't help us this time.

A W here could swing momentum back towards the positive for HU.

[Wags]

Need Evan for this one...

When was the last time (if ever?) that Hofstra led by the exact same score at halftime in two consecutive home games?

Hofstra 31, UNCW 30. Saturday: Hofstra 31, JMU 30.

Estrada 12, Okauru 11 - only players in double figures. Game started: Okauru 8, Estrada 7 before Ray made it 10-7, Hofstra.

[cactus]

Just wish it wasn't a 5p start time - i cant get out of work that early. I assume worse crowd than usual due to that.

It's sparse.

Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk

[Wags]

Lead changes on 7 straight buckets at one point in this one. Up to 21 lead changes (along with 9 ties).

65-64, Pride. Cooks, after a slow start, has been huge this half. Dubar big all game. Have both really helped out Estrada a lot.

[HUSID80]

We hang on for a HUGE win…margined should have been more but we missed 3 of 4 free throws as the end. Very uncharacteristic for this team.

Slivering with a huge rebound and hold on as time ran out.

Big time game…too bad it was on at 5 pm…I didn’t finish my golf game until 6…had it on my phone in the cart!