CAA Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers

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EvanJ
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CAA Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers

Post by EvanJ »

Rather than putting this into topics for each game, I made this topic to discuss every team's seeds. Northeastern beat William & Mary 69-67. Hofstra is a game ahead of William & Mary but 2 games behind Northeastern for the 2 seed (who starts against a team who played the night before). Here is what Hofstra needs to get the 2 seed:

Hofstra wins both
Northeastern loses both
Towson beats James Madison and Northeastern and loses to Hofstra to finish 10-8
William & Mary loses to UNC Wilmington and Charleston to finish 9-9
Hofstra and Northeastern would have a split, be 0-2 against Charleston, and Hofstra would have a better record against Towson.

Here's a scenario where RPI could be a tiebreaker:
Hofstra wins both
Northeastern loses both
Towson beats Northeastern and loses to Hofstra and James Madison to finish 9-9.
William & Mary loses to UNC Wilmington and Charleston to finish 9-9.
UNC Wilmington beats William & Mary and loses to Charleston and Drexel to finish 7-11.
Drexel beats Delaware and UNC Wilmington to finish 7-11.

Hofstra would be 2-0 vs. Towson and 1-1 vs. William & Mary. Northeastern would be 1-1 vs. Towson and 2-0 vs. William & Mary. This would be 3-1 each and go to another tiebreaker. Hofstra would be 2-0 vs. Drexel and 1-1 vs. UNC Wilmington. Northeastern would be 1-1 vs. Drexel and 2-0 vs. UNC Wilmington. This would be 3-1 each and go to another tiebreaker. Hofstra and Northeastern split with Elon (if Northeastern sweeps Elon they will be ahead of us) and swept Delaware and James Madison. The record against every team or group of tied teams would be identical, and RPI might be used as the tiebreaker, which favors Northeastern by a lot so far.
triplec2195
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Re: CAA Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers

Post by triplec2195 »

Just to make life easier this is the way the matchups will break down when the season is over. I think we have a better chance of hitting the lotto then us finishing in second place. A tough task. As of right now we would play either Elon or UNCW assuming we finish in 3rd place. It looks like UNCW,ELON and Towson are all going to lose tonight.
Saturday, March 3 | First Round
4:00 p.m. - Game 1: No. 8 Seed vs. No. 9 Seed
6:30 p.m. - Game 2: No. 7 Seed vs. No. 10 Seed
Sunday, March 4 | Quarterfinals
12:00 p.m. - Game 3: No. 1 Seed vs. No. 8 Seed/No. 9 Seed
2:30 p.m. - Game 4: No. 4 Seed vs. No. 5 Seed
6:00 p.m. - Game 5: No. 2 Seed vs. No. 7 Seed/No. 10 Seed
8:30 p.m. - Game 6: No. 3 Seed vs. No. 6 Seed
Monday, March 5 | Semifinals
6:00 p.m. - Game 7: Winner Game 3 vs. Winner Game 4
8:30 p.m. - Game 8: Winner Game 5 vs. Winner Game 6
Tuesday, March 6 | Finals
7:00 p.m. - Game 9: Winner Game 7 vs. Winner Game 8
Last edited by triplec2195 on Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
EvanJ
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Re: CAA Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers

Post by EvanJ »

Towson lost 69-66. Towson was down 2 and had a breakaway, but before Zane Martin could shoot, he got called for a foul from when he stole the ball on the other side. Towson's announcer said the CAA gets bad referees on Saturday nights. James Madison made 2 free throws to go up 4. While down 2, Towson couldn't inbound the ball, called timeout, and had their inbounds pass intercepted when they were out of timeouts. James Madison made the first free throw and missed the second. Zane Martin missed a long three-pointer that could have tied the game. With 1.1 seconds left, Towson got an offensive rebound according to the play-by-play when Towson's announcer said the possession arrow was used. Justin Gorham, who has made 3 threes all season, missed a tying three, which was the first time this season that he attempted two threes. Towson shot free throws 10-23. Hofstra, Towson, Elon, and Delaware were four CAA teams who shot field goals better than free throws, and if Charleston had attempted and made one more field goal or attempted and missed one more free throw, they would have shot field goals better than free throws. Hofstra has shot field goals better than free throws in 9 of their last 100 games. If you look at the ten CAA teams shooting free throws as independent events, with each team having a .09 probability of shooting field goals better than free throws, the probability that at least 4 out of 10 teams would do that is .0088, meaning 0.88%.
triplec2195
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Re: CAA Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers

Post by triplec2195 »

EvanJ wrote:Towson lost 69-66. Towson was down 2 and had a breakaway, but before Zane Martin could shoot, he got called for a foul from when he stole the ball on the other side. Towson's announcer said the CAA gets bad referees on Saturday nights. James Madison made 2 free throws to go up 4. While down 2, Towson couldn't inbound the ball, called timeout, and had their inbounds pass intercepted when they were out of timeouts. James Madison made the first free throw and missed the second. Zane Martin missed a long three-pointer that could have tied the game. With 1.1 seconds left, Towson got an offensive rebound according to the play-by-play when Towson's announcer said the possession arrow was used. Justin Gorham, who has made 3 threes all season, missed a tying three, which was the first time this season that he attempted two threes. Towson shot free throws 10-23. Hofstra, Towson, Elon, and Delaware were four CAA teams who shot field goals better than free throws, and if Charleston had attempted and made one more field goal or attempted and missed one more free throw, they would have shot field goals better than free throws. Hofstra has shot field goals better than free throws in 9 of their last 100 games. If you look at the ten CAA teams shooting free throws as independent events, with each team having a .09 probability of shooting field goals better than free throws, the probability that at least 4 out of 10 teams would do that is .0088, meaning 0.88%.
Evan with all due respect I have a hard time wrapping my head around this statistical minutia. We all know we are a good FT shooting team(whatever the definition translates to statistically) when ROK's FT % is factored out of the equation 374/490(76%) or 412/593 with ROK or 69.5. When you look at his FT % this year he actually is shooting far better then last year when he shot 28%. This year .369 but his last few games brutal especially last nights game. It's obvious that he has worked on his FT's and has improved. Nobody is going to get overly excited about this. He is never going to be even a 50% FT shooter. This ugly predicament puts Joe in a dilemma where he has to decide when to pull the plug on him in a close game and then lose his height, defense and rebounding. It's very frustrating to see this team leave easy points on the FT line especially in close games which most of our games seem to be. Lately we have seen JR,ST and even JWF miss important FT's. I believe last year Justin had hit around 30 consecutive FT's at the end of the year. Is it the law of averages just catching up?
I was going to comment on how poor I think the officiating has been lately especially last night. The kid that fouled out last night #55 Myles was playing a very aggressive game and he could have been called on a technical foul or two for assault on Gustys and constantly complaining about foul calls. On their offensive end he kept going over the back Of ROK and no calls?? Finally we fouled him out!!
joeg1
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Re: CAA Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers

Post by joeg1 »

Wow, that's a lot of verbiage, which quite frankly, I will not read. Two points:

Obviously we want to play well, win both our games, and head into the CAAs with momentum.

You play who you get, no fear- however, it probably would be advantageous to avoid COC on their home court until the finals. Not sure if this was mentioned, but there are scenarios where NE could still come in first.
HUSID74
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Re: CAA Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers

Post by HUSID74 »

joeg1 wrote:Wow, that's a lot of verbiage, which quite frankly, I will not read. Two points:

Obviously we want to play well, win both our games, and head into the CAAs with momentum.

You play who you get, no fear- however, it probably would be advantageous to avoid COC on their home court until the finals. Not sure if this was mentioned, but there are scenarios where NE could still come in first.
Not exactly their home court...it is in their home town however.
EvanJ
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Re: CAA Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers

Post by EvanJ »

triplec2195 wrote: I believe last year Justin had hit around 30 consecutive FT's at the end of the year. Is it the law of averages just catching up?
Regardless of a streak, he shot them .764 last season and is now .818.
joeg1 wrote: ld be advantageous to avoid COC on their home court until the finals. Not sure if this was mentioned, but there are scenarios where NE could still come in first.
CofC has a head-to-head sweep, so they must lose both and have Northeastern win both to have Northeastern finish first. http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/stats CofC is the only team on the longest active home winning streak and longest active away winning streak leaders. Their next game is hosting Elon, who has lost 7 of their last 9. Elon has lost their last three by 58 points combined.
triplec2195
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Re: CAA Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers

Post by triplec2195 »

EvanJ wrote:
triplec2195 wrote: I believe last year Justin had hit around 30 consecutive FT's at the end of the year. Is it the law of averages just catching up?
Regardless of a streak, he shot them .764 last season and is now .818.
joeg1 wrote: ld be advantageous to avoid COC on their home court until the finals. Not sure if this was mentioned, but there are scenarios where NE could still come in first.
CofC has a head-to-head sweep, so they must lose both and have Northeastern win both to have Northeastern finish first. http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/stats CofC is the only team on the longest active home winning streak and longest active away winning streak leaders. Their next game is hosting Elon, who has lost 7 of their last 9. Elon has lost their last three by 58 points combined.
I wasn't referring to JWF when I mentioned the law of averages was more referring to ST who I think was 8 of 8 in the early going and JR who's been a bit off from the FT line. I would imagine that Justin would be shooting Technical foul shots over anyone on the team the same way Bernardi did.
joeg1
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Re: CAA Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers

Post by joeg1 »

HUSID74 wrote:
joeg1 wrote:Wow, that's a lot of verbiage, which quite frankly, I will not read. Two points:

Obviously we want to play well, win both our games, and head into the CAAs with momentum.

You play who you get, no fear- however, it probably would be advantageous to avoid COC on their home court until the finals. Not sure if this was mentioned, but there are scenarios where NE could still come in first.
Not exactly their home court...it is in their home town however.
It's as if it were at the Nassau Colosseum...will be full of their fans. Definitely gives CoC an edge

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Wags
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Re: CAA Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers

Post by Wags »

triplec2195 wrote:Just to make life easier this is the way the matchups will break down when the season is over. I think we have a better chance of hitting the lotto then us finishing in second place. A tough task. As of right now we would play either Elon or UNCW assuming we finish in 3rd place.
Another reason why it was important to show up for that game at UNCW, which off of the last meeting with HU, should have a lot of confidence if that's the matchup.
triplec2195
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Re: CAA Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers

Post by triplec2195 »

Wags wrote:
triplec2195 wrote:Just to make life easier this is the way the matchups will break down when the season is over. I think we have a better chance of hitting the lotto then us finishing in second place. A tough task. As of right now we would play either Elon or UNCW assuming we finish in 3rd place.
Another reason why it was important to show up for that game at UNCW, which off of the last meeting with HU, should have a lot of confidence if that's the matchup.
Agreed but water under the bridge. I didn't think I would ever say this but the way Elon is playing they're definitely the matchup we want. Elon has to play three games because of the JMU postponed game and their other two games are against COC and NE. That's a tough way to end the season!! If we do draw UNCW I'm still confident we win this game with ROK outplaying Cacock in a good matchup of strong rebounders. There will be no repeat performance for them now playing on a somewhat neutral court.
Polito
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Re: CAA Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers

Post by Polito »

Just keep winning - get the 2/3, take care of business and have a showdown with CofC for all the marbles.


No matter what, due to location and the days of the games now being more during the week than the weekend, HU is going to face hostile crowds - no way HU can compete and bring more than the 'locals' (CofC, UNCW, Elon, etc.).

But have to like the way HU has played on the road this season, they are right there with every other top team, so now it's time to separate the men from the boys - this program needs to erase the bad taste left over the last few years.
Wags
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Re: CAA Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers

Post by Wags »

CAA isn't getting much respect right now.

I know Charleston's OOC resume isn't strong, but the CAA is rated as the 12th-best league in the nation and (although we hope this doesn't happen at Hofstra's expense), Charleston, if they run the table, could go to the NCAAT at 27-6, with 15 straight wins, and yet the consensus seems to be only a 14 seed for them.
EvanJ
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Re: CAA Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers

Post by EvanJ »

Charleston is 71st in the RPI. In the last 8 complete seasons, the automatic bid from the 12th best conference has had an average RPI of 45th. Those RPIs include the postseason because I have no way of finding RPIs as of the end of the regular season. Charleston should root for Buffalo, New Mexico State, South Dakota State, Rider, Louisiana, and Vermont to not win their tournaments so the automatic bid from those conferences will be a worse team. Northeastern leads the CAA in RPI. As hypotheticals, the second tier of us and William & Mary might get 15 seeds. The bottom six CAA teams could get 16 seeds with most of them playing in the First Four.
HofstraMathew
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Re: CAA Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers

Post by HofstraMathew »

I am sure every Hofstra fan would sign up for being a 15 seed if it means being in the NCAA tournament but man would that be ironic that we get a worse seed compared to our AEast days.
Wags
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Re: CAA Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers

Post by Wags »

HofstraMathew wrote:I am sure every Hofstra fan would sign up for being a 15 seed if it means being in the NCAA tournament but man would that be ironic that we get a worse seed compared to our AEast days.
WOULD be ironic, lol. And would be crazy considering the AE is 23rd this year, and the CAA 12th.

The bulk of your schedule is against your own league and aside from a big game here or there (win or lose), most of the OOC doesn't usually move the needle much.

If you emerge as the rep from the 12th-best league instead of the 23rd-best league, I think greater preference should be given to that. Especially in Charleston's case, if in fact they're 27-6 with 15 straight wins going in. Yet, the consensus on Vermont (13 seed) is higher than Charleston (14 seed). Vermont had its own 15-game streak, which just ended (but again, against a significantly weaker conference) and they really didn't do much OOC. They lost a very close opener at Kentucky, but it was still a loss, they had a solid win against Bradley and in their lone game against CAA competition, they lost at Northeastern. Nothing else of note OOC. Based on that, how is the rep from the 23rd-best league in the nation more deserving of a higher seed than that of the 12th-best league in the nation? I just don't see it.
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Re: CAA Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers

Post by Polito »

This is a very fair point - it would be a sham for the AE to earn a better seed than the CAA - these conference gauntlets are not even close to being the same level. Would be very disappointing and a slap in the CAA's face if that happens.

However...

I feel (and this is literally just a feeling, could be wrong) that the committee favors repeats and longevity/stability programs at the mid level - i.e. ones that have made a name for themselves over a period of time. I guarantee that if UNCW made it back this year under Keatts they would be a 12/13. They would have had a dynasty at that point, and I think it would've been rewarded.

Vermont is one of those teams from a crappy conf that has established itself as a tourney team nearly every year for the last decade - they are always one of the top 3 teams, always making mid major noise, and people in college hoops 'know' them to a certain extent.

The CAA had that with the VA 3 (esp VCU) and at 2 different times UNCW. That legacy program feeling is missing this year.

Sure would love for HU to become one starting NOW!
triplec2195
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Re: CAA Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers

Post by triplec2195 »

Wags wrote:
HofstraMathew wrote:I am sure every Hofstra fan would sign up for being a 15 seed if it means being in the NCAA tournament but man would that be ironic that we get a worse seed compared to our AEast days.
WOULD be ironic, lol. And would be crazy considering the AE is 23rd this year, and the CAA 12th.

The bulk of your schedule is against your own league and aside from a big game here or there (win or lose), most of the OOC doesn't usually move the needle much.

If you emerge as the rep from the 12th-best league instead of the 23rd-best league, I think greater preference should be given to that. Especially in Charleston's case, if in fact they're 27-6 with 15 straight wins going in. Yet, the consensus on Vermont (13 seed) is higher than Charleston (14 seed). Vermont had its own 15-game streak, which just ended (but again, against a significantly weaker conference) and they really didn't do much OOC. They lost a very close opener at Kentucky, but it was still a loss, they had a solid win against Bradley and in their lone game against CAA competition, they lost at Northeastern. Nothing else of note OOC. Based on that, how is the rep from the 23rd-best league in the nation more deserving of a higher seed than that of the 12th-best league in the nation? I just don't see it.
The NCAA seems to run it's own independent business and makes it's own rules and pisses a lot of people off. I remember Tom Pecora bemoaning decisions the NCAA made screwing us especially the year we weren't selected as an at large team to the NCAAT. While it's true that the team(George Mason) that went to the tourney was in the final four that's 20/20 hindsight. There was another year that Pecora was complaining big time about a kid from Australia that was declared ineligible for some petty b.s. and he stated openly that big schools get away with big time violations while a mid major like Hofstra gets slapped around for small innocuous stuff. It certainly doesn't make sense for us as a conference to be a lower seed then some of these bottom echelon conferences and don't know how they justify this stuff other then they have no one to answer to. Last year UNCW was a 12th seed and drew a 5 seed. These crazy ass seedings & resulting pairings makes it near impossible from a school coming out of the CAA to advance to the second round.
Wags
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Re: CAA Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers

Post by Wags »

Polito wrote: I feel (and this is literally just a feeling, could be wrong) that the committee favors repeats and longevity/stability programs at the mid level - i.e. ones that have made a name for themselves over a period of time. I guarantee that if UNCW made it back this year under Keatts they would be a 12/13. They would have had a dynasty at that point, and I think it would've been rewarded.

Vermont is one of those teams from a crappy conf that has established itself as a tourney team nearly every year for the last decade - they are always one of the top 3 teams, always making mid major noise, and people in college hoops 'know' them to a certain extent.
I think you're absolutely right on this, but it's not "supposed" to be that way, and it shows the hypocrisy of the committee which claims it looks (as it should) at each individual year in a vacuum, without priors seasons having any influence. But we all know that's not true and this is just another glaring example of it (IF Vermont and Charleston make it and it's the way the committee would go with those teams).

And if the above scenario were to play out the way I stated (and again, for HU's sake, I hope not!), and the past is an influence (though it shouldn't be), Vermont hasn't done anything in the NCAAT since that upset over Syracuse (now 13 years ago) and the CAA has historically made WAY more noise in the NCAAT than the AE ever has. Also, if not looking at only this season, why not reward Charleston for posting 25-win and 27-win seasons back-to-back?
triplec2195
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Re: CAA Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers

Post by triplec2195 »

Wags when u say reward Charleston for two back to back strong seasons were u conceding the CAA tourney to them or referring to them as an at large team on the bubble after they lose to us?????
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