Men's Basketball RPI Predictions From RPI Forecast

Forum for all Hofstra sports discussion

Men's Basketball RPI Predictions From RPI Forecast

Postby EvanJ » Thu Nov 23, 2017 9:16 am

RPI Forecast gives us a mean RPI of 137.1, which ranks 130th (meaning that fewer than 137 teams have a mean rank of 137th or better), a 90th percentile of 85th, a 75th percentile of 106th, a median of 134th, a 25th percentile of 165th, and a 10th percentile of 194th. They expect us to go 16-13 vs. Division I, 10-8 in the CAA, and have a strength of schedule of 142nd. That's before the CAA Tournament.
EvanJ
 
Posts: 1056
Joined: Sat Sep 06, 2014 2:39 pm

Re: Men's Basketball RPI Predictions From RPI Forecast

Postby triplec2195 » Thu Nov 23, 2017 11:24 am

I not sure what all that statistical nonsense is but if they lose 8 games in the conference I would be disappointed. The conference has tough teams from top to bottom so there really is no easy games. I still say the jury is out on their PG play and for me that's the whole enchilada. It's clear that they have more of a bench and guys coming off it will contribute. If Pemberton continues to score at the level we've seen in the early going Hofstra I believe will be a tough team to outscore. This is assuming they continue to play a higher level of D then last year. JWF is a special offensive player and will cause a lot of problems for defenses and will open up scoring opportunities for a lot of players. ROK could be the recipient of this. The early match ups with top ranked teams in the conference will set the tone and as JM has said many a time it's all about toughness. They got to play 40 minute games end to end tough with in your face defense and hopefully get blocked shots and they contest in the paint. I don't know what the general consensus is out there but I'm hoping for more like 5 loses and an easier path to the championship game this year.
triplec2195
 
Posts: 55
Joined: Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:08 am

Re: Men's Basketball RPI Predictions From RPI Forecast

Postby HofstraMathew » Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:30 pm

Triplec I agree with what you said. It looks like this rpi forecast is based on the sagarin ratings and as we start winning more games in the OOC our rating should improve and with it the RPI forecast. The other thing to consider though is we were picked fourth in the conference and last year Elon finished fourth with a 10-8 record. I think most of us (myself included) think we will finish higher than fourth but it's early and we haven't proved that yet so I think 10-8 is a good impartial estimate until we prove otherwise.
HofstraMathew
 
Posts: 205
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 6:27 pm

Re: Men's Basketball RPI Predictions From RPI Forecast

Postby Cards » Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:06 pm

regarding RPI - remember guys, that as we get into the CAA season, our strength of schedule is good but not great. There will not be any top 50 teams and maybe 1 or 2 top 100 teams. So unless we win, and win, and win, our RPI will not rise that much. SOS wise, with Dayton, Clemson, Auburn, Villanova on our out of conference schedule, this is one of the toughest RPI early season schedules we have had in years.

To get into the top 50, we need to beat just about everyone (except Nova). Our in conf W-L could have no more than 2 or 3 losses. We would need an overall record of roughly 25-5. All that being said, that is why it is so important to win the CAA. With an at large from the CAA extremely unlikely a 25-5 record without a title still may only get a hosting of an NIT game.
Cards
 
Posts: 739
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2014 10:46 pm

Re: Men's Basketball RPI Predictions From RPI Forecast

Postby The Shadow » Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:19 pm

Cards, remember that hosting a game in the NIT (which is also controlled by the NCAA) depends on possible attendance for money generation. Sometimes the higher rated RPI college goes on the road. Remember the NIT team that had a games at home versus Nebraska and ODU, opened the tournament at St. Joseph's. I believe that team had an RPI in the 30's. As of today 11-23, HU is ranked at 126 on KenPom.
The Shadow
 
Posts: 146
Joined: Wed Dec 23, 2015 11:07 pm

Re: Men's Basketball RPI Predictions From RPI Forecast

Postby triplec2195 » Fri Nov 24, 2017 8:40 am

I don't think about THE NIT trying to stay focused on one thing and that's the NCAA's. A tough road with a lot of speed bumps. Two years ago JM complained big time about having to play on the road against George Washington. We had a higher RPI than GW from what I believe and certainly would have had a better chance at home but losing the game at the buzzer was nothing to be ashamed of. Then GW went on to win the NIT a testament to how good both teams were. All ugly reminders of so close yet so far especially against UNCW. I always thought the under utilization of JWF in his freshman year hurt the team and this carried over into his sophomore year until at some point somebody realized what a diamond in the rough they had in him.
They need to get two teams into the NCAA's from this conference and the ranking of the conference helps this cause. The team(s) that do get in need to represent the conference in a positive way and get an upset. I know a lot easier said then done when you're a very low seed. Years ago we had both George Mason and VCU go to the Final Four. We need a deja-vu experience here. One thing at a time let's try to compile an impressive winning record!!
triplec2195
 
Posts: 55
Joined: Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:08 am

Re: Men's Basketball RPI Predictions From RPI Forecast

Postby EvanJ » Fri Nov 24, 2017 12:07 pm

HofstraMathew wrote:Triplec I agree with what you said. It looks like this rpi forecast is based on the sagarin ratings and as we start winning more games in the OOC our rating should improve and with it the RPI forecast.

Hofstra is third in the CAA in the Sagarin, so predictions based only on the Sagarin would probably expect Hofstra to go better than 10-8, unless it was a really unusual distribution like the Missouri Valley last season when Wichita State and Illinois State each went 16-0 against everybody else and there was a tie for third at 9-9. https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/projections/standings/ predicts Hofstra to go 16.2-13.8 and finish fourth in the CAA at 9.6-8.4. They give Hofstra a 6.0% chance at the regular season title and an 8.5% chance at winning the CAA Tournament, with Hofstra making the Semifinals less than half the time.

The Shadow wrote:Remember the NIT team that had a games at home versus Nebraska and ODU, opened the tournament at St. Joseph's. I believe that team had an RPI in the 30's. As of today 11-23, HU is ranked at 126 on KenPom.

No, the first NIT game was hosting Nebraska. St. Joseph's was in between the home games.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Hofstra.html gives the Future Weight for all of Hofstra's opponents in the RPI. Hofstra is at 26.42%. Your own winning percentage is 25%. Your opponents' winning percentage, which is 50%, excludes the games your opponents played against you. Your opponents' opponents winning percentage, which is 25% includes teams being opponents' opponents with themselves, possibly because it would be complicated to take that out of the formula. I'll try to explain using Drexel as an example, when it is true for all CAA teams. When Drexel's record counts towards Hofstra's opponents' winning percentage, the head-to-head games are taken out. Hofstra's eight CAA opponents other than Drexel (and common out of conference opponents if there are any) count towards Hofstra's opponents' winning percentage, and Drexel's winning percentage (including Drexel's games against Hofstra) counts towards the opponents' winning percentage for the other eight CAA teams, which is the opponents' opponents' winning percentage for Hofstra. I'm assuming Hofstra counting towards their own opponents' opponents' winning percentage causes Hofstra's future weight to be 26.42% instead of 25%. If you can't understand that part, it's no big deal. The CAA teams range from 4.41% to 4.46%, and I think the difference is because they don't play the same amount of games. Hofstra's out of conference opponents range from 1.72% to 1.93%. If I counted right, Hofstra's Future Weight includes 179 out of the 330 teams excluding Hofstra and Hofstra's opponents. This comes from opponents' opponents' winning percentage. Because Hofstra plays 4 MAAC teams, the 7 MAAC teams Hofstra doesn't play are among the 9 opponents' opponents with the highest Future Weight. Here are the opponents' opponents not in the MAAC that matter the most to Hofstra:

1. Old Dominion: 0.21%
2. Bucknell: 0.21% (I'm guessing that these are not exact values and Old Dominion's is higher than Bucknell's)
3. Loyola (Maryland): 0.18%
4. Boston University: 0.18%
5. Furman: 0.18%
6. UNC Greensboro: 0.18%
7. George Mason: 0.18%
8. La Salle: 0.18%
9. Maryland-Baltimore County (UMBC): 0.15%
10. Ohio State: 0.15%
11. Lafayette: 0.15%
12. Pennsylvania: 0.15%
13. Cornell: 0.15%
14. Vermont: 0.15%
15. Richmond: 0.15%
EvanJ
 
Posts: 1056
Joined: Sat Sep 06, 2014 2:39 pm

Re: Men's Basketball RPI Predictions From RPI Forecast

Postby The Shadow » Sat Nov 25, 2017 1:48 am

To EvanJ, Thanks for the correction.
The Shadow
 
Posts: 146
Joined: Wed Dec 23, 2015 11:07 pm


Return to Hofstra Sports

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot] and 3 guests