Making A Statistical Model For Men's Basketball Attendance

[EvanJ]

I previously did my prediction for Saturday's attendance using my calculator. I just did my prediction in Excel and got a different amount that is even closer to the actual attendance. My model predicted 2,183, and was off by 28, which is the seventh best prediction it made out of 190 games.

My model predicts 2,217 for Thursday.

[HUSID80]

I previously did my prediction for Saturday's attendance using my calculator. I just did my prediction in Excel and got a different amount that is even closer to the actual attendance. My model predicted 2,183, and was off by 28, which is the seventh best prediction it made out of 190 games.

My model predicts 2,217 for Thursday.

Pretty impressive!

[stuball888]

If we get 2,200 for a mid week I will be impressed. Is there a special promo going on. If not i cant see more than 1,600 unless they count tickets sold.

[EvanJ]

It doesn't matter to me whether they count people who came or tickets sold as long as the same method was used from 2003-2004 to now.

[EvanJ]

From 2003-2004 through 2015-2016, here are the out of conference games that got 1,000 or more above Hofstra's average home attendance that season (including all games):

December 11, 2004 vs. St. John's: +2,772
March 22, 2006 vs. Old Dominion: +2,024 (Old Dominion was in the CAA but I'm counting this as an out of conference game because it was in the NIT Quarterfinals)
February 17, 2007 vs. Holy Cross: +1,424 (BracketBuster)
December 13, 2003 vs. Stony Brook: +1,298 (that was the first game I went to)
December 1, 2012 vs. Southern Methodist (SMU): +1,211
November 16, 2012 vs. South Dakota State: +1,206 (part of a tournament)
November 11, 2011 vs. Long Island University- Brooklyn: +1,186 (home opener)

St. John's won't come to Hofstra. Hofstra already plays Stony Brook every season. Long Island University- Brooklyn is the only other area team on the list. Out of the four teams on the list not in the area, the only one that wasn't part of a special event was Southern Methodist. Even if they would agree to play Hofstra every season with the teams alternating hosting, I don't think Southern Methodist would help attendance enough to be worth flying to Texas every other season.

[HUSID80]

Evan we played Iona at home during Mo Cassara's tenure and that game drew close to 4,000.

[EvanJ]

Evan we played Iona at home during Mo Cassara's tenure and that game drew close to 4,000.

That game got 4,258, which is +1,855 over the 2011-2012 season average. When I looked for games at +1,000 or higher I missed that one. Out of the 13 out of conference opponents we have hosted at least twice since 2003-2004, Iona has the highest average attendance at 3,388, and that was from two weekday games. The other Iona game got a -163 in 2008-2009 when Hofstra's attendance averages 2,681.

[stuball888]

Tom Cluess said he wants to play local schools. Let's get this fone

[cactus]

I previously did my prediction for Saturday's attendance using my calculator. I just did my prediction in Excel and got a different amount that is even closer to the actual attendance. My model predicted 2,183, and was off by 28, which is the seventh best prediction it made out of 190 games.

My model predicts 2,217 for Thursday.

There is nothing close to that number here tonight, unfortunately

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[stuball888]

Looks like there is barely 1,000 people in the stands.

[HUSID80]

Horrible turnout...did they count the 200 plus students honored at the half? Once again the student body no-shows. Shameful.

[stuball888]

offiial crowd was 1,142. I think they did. The other day they announced the crowd at the womans game at 387. More like 175 at that game.

[Pride97]

Horrible turnout...did they count the 200 plus students honored at the half? Once again the student body no-shows. Shameful.

Agreed, but I didn't expect more students to turn out than before the break to see a 2-8 team.


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[HUSID80]

The record doesn't seem to matter. We won 20 plus games the last two years and student support was non-existent. Of course last night Stuart shows up, for the worst crowd of the year...

[HofstraMathew]

Lets see what students show up for the Drexel game. I am assuming they must be promoting this game on campus; it is a 7pm game and I believe they are giving out a free jersey for students.

[EvanJ]

The record doesn't seem to matter. We won 20 plus games the last two years and student support was non-existent. Of course last night Stuart shows up, for the worst crowd of the year...

Looking at my model's value for Hofstra's wins in their last 30 games and comparing it to how many wins Hofstra had in their 30 games before every home game this season, if Hofstra had 30 wins from their last 30 games all the time my model would predict attendance to be 774 higher than it is. Even increasing our attendance by 774 would still leave it much lower than it used to be.

Do people think any of my variables have a relationship that isn't linear? For example, my model would have the same predicted increase if Hofstra had won 5 more of their last 30 days regardless of whether the increase was from 8 to 13, 20 to 25, or any other combination. Let's look at a hypothetical with 15, 20, and 25 wins from Hofstra's last 30 games. If 25 wins out of 30 made people hopeful of making the NCAA Tournament, a change from 20 to 25 wins could cause a bigger attendance increase than a change from 15 to 20 wins.

[stuball888]

Unless there is a special promo like giveaways don't expect Hofstra to draw over 2,000 for a weeknight game

[EvanJ]

Unless there is a special promo like giveaways don't expect Hofstra to draw over 2,000 for a weeknight game

I agree. When I say what my model predicts, that doesn't mean I expect the attendance to be that high.

[HofstraMathew]

Do we know for sure if the quoted attendance numbers are paid attendance or gate attendance?

[stuball888]

Trust me it's paid attendance they also count the players band cheerleaders Hofstra administration reporters announcers refs and the maintainence crew at the end of thegame