W&M @ Hofstra 2/15

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W&M @ Hofstra 2/15

Postby triplec2195 » Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:44 pm

Statistically speaking they have # 1 offense against the #4 offense 83.2 vs 78.4. The #8 defense against the # 6 defense 81.6 vs 76.3. Where are all these people who said we have the worst defense in the conference?? OK bad but not the worst 4 other teams worse then ours including W&M. We have a scoring margin of 2.1 theirs is 1.6. THEY SHOOT 80% FROM THE FT LINE we shoot 71.2( ROK factor). Field goal % for them .503 us .468. Three point FG % #1 IN THE conference @ .424 ours .372. We r 3rd in the conference at defending the 3 ball @ 34.5 they're next to last at .386. We are #3 in the conference in terms of offensive rebounds 34.5 they're 7 at 32.5. Enough with all these statistics what does this all boil down to? The Little Napoleons can shoot it but they can't defend it. My feeling a free for all shoot out and a close game hopefully leaving us still standing when the smoke clears!!
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Re: W&M @ Hofstra 2/15

Postby EvanJ » Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:43 pm

triplec2195 wrote:THEY SHOOT 80% FROM THE FT LINE we shoot 71.2( ROK factor).

Our FT% without Gustys is .770. That CAA season record of .761 by Hofstra in 2010-2011 will be broken by a lot by W&M. If the season was over now, they would have the tenth best season FT% ever. The NCAA lists the Top 30, and if the season was over now there would be four new entries. They would be W&M, Marquette, Liberty, and Central Michigan.
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Re: W&M @ Hofstra 2/15

Postby Wags » Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:48 pm

triplec2195 wrote: My feeling a free for all shoot out and a close game hopefully leaving us still standing when the smoke clears!!

That didn't work out too well trying to beat W&M last time (90-87 loss) nor against Charleston at home (86-85 loss).

I know I might be a complete heretic for suggesting this, but what about the notion of trying to play SOME defense while holding W&M in the 70s (like Towson, Northeastern and Drexel did in wins over W&M this season) instead of not caring how many points HU allows and hoping to score enough to win 92-90?

Is that too much to ask at this point in the season?
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Re: W&M @ Hofstra 2/15

Postby HUSID74 » Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:12 pm

Wags wrote:
triplec2195 wrote: My feeling a free for all shoot out and a close game hopefully leaving us still standing when the smoke clears!!

That didn't work out too well trying to beat W&M last time (90-87 loss) nor against Charleston at home (86-85 loss).

I know I might be a complete heretic for suggesting this, but what about the notion of trying to play SOME defense while holding W&M in the 70s (like Towson, Northeastern and Drexel did in wins over W&M this season) instead of not caring how many points HU allows and hoping to score enough to win 92-90?

Is that too much to ask at this point in the season?


Easier said than done...I'll take a win no matter what the score. Remember we were up by 3 and in bounding the ball when we self destructed in Williamsburg. I'm sure our guys have not forgotten that.
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Re: W&M @ Hofstra 2/15

Postby Wags » Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:10 am

HUSID74 wrote:
Wags wrote:
triplec2195 wrote: My feeling a free for all shoot out and a close game hopefully leaving us still standing when the smoke clears!!

That didn't work out too well trying to beat W&M last time (90-87 loss) nor against Charleston at home (86-85 loss).

I know I might be a complete heretic for suggesting this, but what about the notion of trying to play SOME defense while holding W&M in the 70s (like Towson, Northeastern and Drexel did in wins over W&M this season) instead of not caring how many points HU allows and hoping to score enough to win 92-90?

Is that too much to ask at this point in the season?


Easier said than done...I'll take a win no matter what the score. Remember we were up by 3 and in bounding the ball when we self destructed in Williamsburg. I'm sure our guys have not forgotten that.

Of course, we'd all take 2-0 or 102-100, as long as it's a W. But why does it seem some of the fanbase here is so against the team going into these games with more of a defensive mindset? Or for that matter, ANY defensive mindset? It feels like there's always a lot of resistance to that (following the cue of the team most times).

It almost feels like some HU fans would rather be entertained in a gutwrenching, high-scoring, last-second win than to be less entertained while seeing the team play better defensively, and as a result, winning more easily in a lower-scoring game. I would say that's not the case, because why should it be? But it certainly feels that way from a lot of the comments here sometimes.
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Re: W&M @ Hofstra 2/15

Postby triplec2195 » Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:28 am

My feeling a free for all shoot out and a close game hopefully leaving us still standing when the smoke clears!!
That didn't work out too well trying to beat W&M last time (90-87 loss) nor against Charleston at home (86-85 loss).

I know I might be a complete heretic for suggesting this, but what about the notion of trying to play SOME defense while holding W&M in the 70s (like Towson, Northeastern and Drexel did in wins over W&M this season) instead of not caring how many points HU allows and hoping to score enough to win 92-90?

Is that too much to ask at this point in the season?[/quote]

Easier said than done...I'll take a win no matter what the score. Remember we were up by 3 and in bounding the ball when we self destructed in Williamsburg. I'm sure our guys have not forgotten that.[/quote]
Of course, we'd all take 2-0 or 102-100, as long as it's a W. But why does it seem some of the fanbase here is so against the team going into these games with more of a defensive mindset? Or for that matter, ANY defensive mindset? It feels like there's always a lot of resistance to that (following the cue of the team most times).


It almost feels like some HU fans would rather be entertained in a gutwrenching, high-scoring, last-second win than to be less entertained while seeing the team play better defensively, and as a result, winning more easily in a lower-scoring game. I would say that's not the case, because why should it be? But it certainly feels that way from a lot of the comments here sometimes.[/quote]

I'm with you Wags there r lots of us that would luv to see us shut down W&M like we did to ELON but we're being more realistic and just going by the numbers for the entire season. So be it 70 something to 60 something but if we come away with a win there will be a lot of us that will be ecstatic including you! Am I right??
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Re: W&M @ Hofstra 2/15

Postby triplec2195 » Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:48 am

EvanJ wrote:
triplec2195 wrote:THEY SHOOT 80% FROM THE FT LINE we shoot 71.2( ROK factor).

Our FT% without Gustys is .770. That CAA season record of .761 by Hofstra in 2010-2011 will be broken by a lot by W&M. If the season was over now, they would have the tenth best season FT% ever. The NCAA lists the Top 30, and if the season was over now there would be four new entries. They would be W&M, Marquette, Liberty, and Central Michigan.


I didn't realize they set that record in 2010-11. Good info. Evan!
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Re: W&M @ Hofstra 2/15

Postby Wags » Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:35 am

triplec2195 wrote:I'm with you Wags there r lots of us that would luv to see us shut down W&M like we did to ELON but we're being more realistic and just going by the numbers for the entire season. So be it 70 something to 60 something but if we come away with a win there will be a lot of us that will be ecstatic including you! Am I right??

Not shut them down. Can't reasonably be expected with the pace that they and HU both play and the offensive firepower W&M has. But not go into the game thinking the only way to beat them is 92-90.

After losing 89-76 to Elon at home, allowing 53 in the second half, I don't think anyone thought HU could go to Elon and win 67-48, allowing 20 in the second half. But that showed what the team is capable of when defense is the focus.

Not expecting anything tomorrow night like what happened at Elon, but it's just a general mentality, like the lack of a consistent, defensive EFFORT (regardless of the final result) is seemingly too easily accepted with this team over the past few years as long as the offense is there and they stay in the game, with a chance to win... when the mentality should be: let's see if the defense can more closely match the offense. Maybe the personnel or the scheme or a combination of both aren't there defensively. But I don't believe that because we've seen it in spots. The overall mentality needs to change. Yeah, shootouts are exciting and fun to watch, and we know the team can score. But if they're ever going to climb the ladder like they and the fanbase obviously want, there has to be at least some focus, consistency and improvement defensively. That's what will get them there. It's very tough to try to win every game in the 80s, especially tournament games, even if that's your identity.
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Re: W&M @ Hofstra 2/15

Postby Polito » Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:16 pm

It's easier said than done UNDER JOE MIHALICH. Let's be clear on that... it's tough because his teams play horrific defense.

So yes, it is too much to ask with this particular regime.

Funny thing is, HU is supposed to be the high flying high firepower offense to offset the fact they typically play no defense, yet here we are as usual looking up at someone else (in this case WM) who actually runs a REAL high octane offense. All I see HU do is 'claim' to be things that other teams actually are... annoying. But even worse for me is pretending like oh it's just some bad luck thing, or it's ALL on the players.

It isn't. It's the coaching. And in the CAA it has and will continue to be their downfall because it opens the door WIDE OPEN for inconsistency that's tough to overcome, which we have seen all year long (and for most of the tenure). But I digress...

I fully agree have to be more realistic and know they aren't that kind of team and will HAVE to outgun to win. The last 4 games of the regular season right here, this is the make or break time - it's a home game against a hated rival - GET IT DONE.

And I also will take a win ANY way possible - style is meaningless at this point under JM, just get the W's. HU MUST rebound and take this one.
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Re: W&M @ Hofstra 2/15

Postby Wags » Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:45 pm

Polito wrote:It's easier said than done UNDER JOE MIHALICH. Let's be clear on that... it's tough because his teams play horrific defense.

So yes, it is too much to ask with this particular regime.

Funny thing is, HU is supposed to be the high flying high firepower offense to offset the fact they typically play no defense, yet here we are as usual looking up at someone else (in this case WM) who actually runs a REAL high octane offense. All I see HU do is 'claim' to be things that other teams actually are... annoying. But even worse for me is pretending like oh it's just some bad luck thing, or it's ALL on the players.

It isn't. It's the coaching. And in the CAA it has and will continue to be their downfall because it opens the door WIDE OPEN for inconsistency that's tough to overcome, which we have seen all year long (and for most of the tenure). But I digress...

I fully agree have to be more realistic and know they aren't that kind of team and will HAVE to outgun to win. The last 4 games of the regular season right here, this is the make or break time - it's a home game against a hated rival - GET IT DONE.

And I also will take a win ANY way possible - style is meaningless at this point under JM, just get the W's. HU MUST rebound and take this one.

It's not meaningless if one style helps you win and another doesn't. Again, I go back to the loss to the team HU is playing tomorrow night and the loss in HU's biggest game of the season thus far (the home loss to Charleston). Everyone points to a bunch of "what ifs" in the final moments of those games, but those games were 90-87 and 86-85. Play just a LITTLE defense in those games and it doesn't come down to "what ifs." Not saying you have to win 55-50, but as in those two games, if your plan is to simply outscore and not even try to play D, you're probably going to have the same result: talking about late-game "what ifs" instead of a win. OR, if you at least play enough D to get by, maybe you win 80-75 instead of losing 90-87 or 86-85. Like I said, Towson did it, Northeastern did it, even Drexel did it against W&M this year. No reason HU can't too IF the focus is in the right place.

I don't buy the "this is how they're built so it's the only way" excuse. That's for teams who fall short. Some teams personnel wise and scheme wise are obviously better defensively than others. But no matter who is on the floor or what the scheme is, you can make up for some of that, even a decent portion of it, just by playing D like you mean it and like you believe it's a big factor in whether you're going to win or lose. Elon didn't go from 89 to 48 and from 53 in the 2nd half to 20 all on its own. I saw the difference in defensive intensity from HU in those two games. That needs to carry over the rest of the way, because it clearly didn't at UNCW. And it baffles me why that seems to be excused so easily here because HU "is built a certain way."
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Re: W&M @ Hofstra 2/15

Postby EvanJ » Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:46 pm

We will finish in the top three if:

We beat W&M and Towson (we will be at least 10-8)

W&M loses to Charleston and Northeastern (they would be 10-8 or worse and we would have the tiebreaker due to our win over Northeastern)

Towson would be 10-8 or worse and we would have a head-to-head sweep

Elon loses at least 2 games (they beat Charleston and would have head-to-head tiebreaker over us if Charleston is first, if Elon loses to Charleston and Northeastern, and either Charleston and Northeastern tie for first or Northeastern has sole first then Hofstra would have the tiebreaker over Elon due to record vs. William & Mary and/or Towson)

If we lose we wouldn't have a realistic chance at finishing ahead of W&M. We would need to win 3 and have them lose 3 including hosting UNCW.
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Re: W&M @ Hofstra 2/15

Postby Wags » Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:09 pm

EvanJ wrote:We will finish in the top three if:

We beat W&M and Towson (we will be at least 10-8)

W&M loses to Charleston and Northeastern (they would be 10-8 or worse and we would have the tiebreaker due to our win over Northeastern)

Towson would be 10-8 or worse and we would have a head-to-head sweep

Elon loses at least 2 games (they beat Charleston and would have head-to-head tiebreaker over us if Charleston is first, if Elon loses to Charleston and Northeastern, and either Charleston and Northeastern tie for first or Northeastern has sole first then Hofstra would have the tiebreaker over Elon due to record vs. William & Mary and/or Towson)

If we lose we wouldn't have a realistic chance at finishing ahead of W&M. We would need to win 3 and have them lose 3 including hosting UNCW.

Good to keep an eye on, but really it's how they're playing going in (which is why these next four games are important), and even more so, about matchups in the tourney.

Better to get a lower seed and be on a better side of the bracket with teams HU matches up well against than to get a higher seed with tougher matchups or be on a worse side of the bracket.
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Re: W&M @ Hofstra 2/15

Postby triplec2195 » Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:26 am

Best to be only playing 3 games not 4. I think we match up well with the best teams in the conference and would like to beat the best. We're 4.5 point favorites per our favorite newspaper Newsday!
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Re: W&M @ Hofstra 2/15

Postby EvanJ » Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:45 am

William & Mary has a better RPI, but the Sagarin thinks Hofstra is better, and Hofstra is favored by more than home court advantage.

http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=190504 will have statistics.
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Re: W&M @ Hofstra 2/15

Postby Polito » Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:52 am

Agree that HU matches up pretty even across the other top 3 of CofC, NU, and Napoleons - games against them will be very tough, but same could be said for each of them against HU.

Let's see how the team responds tonight - so far this year they've shown great ability to come back strong and show no quit - great qualities

That spread feels high though lol I'm not quite that confident in HU winning by more than 3, but hope I am very wrong!
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Re: W&M @ Hofstra 2/15

Postby Flying Dutchmen » Thu Feb 15, 2018 11:46 am

I would be surprised if we didn't win tonight.

We always matchup well against W&M, who has the worst statistical defense in the CAA in at least 20 years. I think we play a similar game to the home UNCW game, and just shoot them out of the building, very rare to have Eli and JWF off in back to back games.

With four games left, the team is what it is, and is highly capable of putting up a defensive dud, but if we can just finish strong, we have a good chance for the #3 seed, which is the side of the bracket I would prefer to be on.
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Re: W&M @ Hofstra 2/15

Postby Wags » Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:23 pm

triplec2195 wrote:Best to be only playing 3 games not 4. I think we match up well with the best teams in the conference and would like to beat the best. We're 4.5 point favorites per our favorite newspaper Newsday!

Obviously. I meant better to get a lower seed in the top 6 (playing 3 games) with better matchups than a higher seed in the top 6 with potentially worse matchups.
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Re: W&M @ Hofstra 2/15

Postby Wags » Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:42 pm

Polito wrote:Agree that HU matches up pretty even across the other top 3 of CofC, NU, and Napoleons

Do they, though? They're 1-4 against those three teams!

They are only in the four spot right now because they've beaten up (going 7-2) on the teams below them.

So, 1-4 vs. the 3 teams above them, still no consistent defense or intensity level four games before the tourney, and we're talking about them like they're a legit contender.

Sorry, I just don't see the signs, unless they can finally show that during these last four games in Feb.

Anyway, it's nice to at least have a CAA game No. 15 at home that has some buzz and that means something tonight, compared to some fairly meaningless games in past recent years in mid-Feb. Should be fun tonight, regardless of the outcome. Been looking forward to it all week. Hope it's a W!
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Re: W&M @ Hofstra 2/15

Postby Flying Dutchmen » Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:12 pm

Sure we are 1-4 (soon to be 2-4), but the only bad loss was at home to Northeastern. Obviously we should have finished the W&M and Charleston games out, but I don't really think Charleston is unbeatable, even at home.

Obviously, 14-11 says it all, but the only reason I would consider us a contender is because only Charleston has jumped out in the standings, and they've done so winning a bunch of close games.
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Re: W&M @ Hofstra 2/15

Postby Wags » Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:19 pm

Flying Dutchmen wrote:Sure we are 1-4 (soon to be 2-4)

No guarantee at all of being 2-4, for one (though we hope).

1-4 is 1-4.

Yes, three of the four losses were very close, but so was the lone win, and what does that all mean for March? I strongly believe that HU can keep it close in the tourney against any of the current top 3.

But can they BEAT the top 3 in the tourney? So far, 1-4 says probably not. Probably very close, but not quite. And if they lose tonight and it becomes 1-5, don't tell me they "match up well" against the top 3. I want to see it on the court, and tonight is the last opportunity to show it other than a single one-point win in Boston.
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